SCIENCE FOR IMAGINEERS KAOS PILOTS FEB 2012 NICK JANKEL, WECREATE @NICKWECREATE @NICKJANKEL
Jan 12, 2015
SCIENCE FOR IMAGINEERS
KAOS PILOTS FEB 2012
NICK JANKEL, WECREATE
@NICKWECREATE@NICKJANKEL
DAY 3CHAOS, COMPLEXITY & CYNEFIN
DRAW BREAKTHROUGH SYSTEM OF YOUR ‘PROBLEM’SPOT ASSUMPTIONSIDENTIFY SWEETSPOTS
COMPLEXITY
WORK WITH CYNEFIN MODEL, UNDERSTAND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FIELDS OF SIMPLE, COMPLICATED, COMPLEX AND CHAOS AND HOW THERE IS DIFFERENT METHODS TO APPLY WHEN YOU WORK IN THE DIFFERENT FIELDS.
BEING ABLE TO ANALYZE AND UNDERSTAND IF A PROBLEM IS IN THE VARIOUS FIELDS
TODAY
HEARTCLARITY, POSSIBILITY
ANTSNEITHER INDIVIDUAL NOR GROUP BEHAVIOURSIGNALINGADAPTATION TO WEATHER / ATTACKHOW THROUGH EVOLUTION?
COMPLEX / ADAPTIVEBRAINSHEART MUSCLEIMMUNE SYSTEMINSECT COLONIESGLOBAL ECONOMY
BRAIN
WEBFRACTAL
COMPLEXNON-LINEAR COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOURFEEDBACK, SIGNALING & INFO PROCESSINGADAPTATION VIA LEARNING OR EVOLUTIONHAVE A HISTORYNESTED HIERARCHIESSELF-ORGANISED EMERGENCE
WEBOF CAUSATION
SELFORGANISATION
ORDER FOR FREE!
ORDERCOMES FROM DISORDER
DEFIESENTROPY!
LIFEC, H, O, N, S, P, FE CREATE ALL
ROBUSTNESS, FLEXIBILITY, SPONTANEOUS INNOVATION.
SEMI-AUTONOMOUS FUNCTIONING NEEDING MINIMAL SUPERVISION
SELF-ORGANISATION
CONTROLNATURAL RESPONSE TO FIX COMPLEX PROBLEMS
BUT LOSE RESILIENCE & CREATIVE OF SYSTEM (AND FAILS)
“If biologists have ignored self-organization, it is not because self-ordering is not pervasive and profound. It is because we biologists have yet to understand how to think about systems governed simultaneously by two sources of order, Yet who seeing the snowflake, who seeing simple lipid molecules cast adrift in water forming themselves into cell-like hollow lipid vesicles, who seeing the potential for the crystallization of life in swarms of reacting molecules, who seeing the stunning order for free in networks linking tens upon tens of thousands of variables, can fail to entertain a central thought: if ever we are to attain a final theory in biology, we will surely, surely have to understand the commingling of self-organization and selection. We will have to see that we are the natural expressions of a deeper order. Ultimately, we will discover in our creation myth that we are expected after all.”
STUART KAUFFMAN
BIRDSSTAY CLOSEMATCH VELOCITYAVOID OBSTACLES
BIRDSSTAY CLOSEMATCH VELOCITYAVOID OBSTACLES
BIRDSSTAY CLOSE (COHESION)MATCH DIRECTION & VELOCITY (ALIGNMENT)AVOID COLLISION (SEPERATION)
WHAT ARE THE ‘RULES’ FOR KP BEHAVIOUR?
WEATHERNON-LINEARNON-EQUILIBRIUM
BUTTERFLYEFFECT
CHAOSPOSITION, MASS, VELOCITY NOT ENOUGH TO PREDICT
HUMANSDO NOT OPERATE IN EQUILIBRIUMS EITHER
NETWORKSC. ELEGANSBRAINWEBHOLLYWOODNATIONAL GRIDMETABOLISMGENE EXPRESSION
NETWORKSSMALL WORLD
SCALE FREEHUBSHETEROGENOUS NODESSELF-SIMILARITY
RICHGET RICHER
EPIDEMIOLOGYSEXUAL HUBS IN HIV
1/n
FAILURECASCADING
RESILIENCEEXCEPT FOR HUBS!
PHASE TRANSITIONS
STASIS EDGE OF CHAOS INSTABILITY
DIVERSITY LOW OPTIMAL HIGH
FLOW OF INFO LOW OPTIMAL HIGH
RICHNESS OF CONNECTIONS LOW OPTIMAL HIGH
ANXIETY LOW OPTIMAL HIGH
POWER HIGH OPTIMAL LOW
EDGEOF CHAOS
MAXIMUM RATES OF GENERATION / EVOLUTION
COMPLEXITYCOSTS
BACKGAMMON
HOW DO YOU RATE ON THESE & WHICH IS STRONGEST & WEAKEST?AGILEATTENTIONEXPERIMENTROBUSTOPEN TO MULTIPLE POSSIBILITIES
MAKINGCHANGE IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS
“Thinking more deeply about institutions and complexity raises major dilemmas for development interventions. On the one hand, tackling poverty, achieving social justice and protecting the environment clearly require institutional transformation. On the other, institutions cannot be effectively changed in a neatly planned, top-down manner.”
JIM WOODHILL
“Don’t disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We don’t understand their logic… Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific ‘evidence’.”
N. NICHOLAS TALEB
REMEMBERDYNAMIC, RICH INTERACTIONSDIFFERENT PEOPLE, DIFFERENT LEVELSFEEDBACK LOOPSNON-LINEAR, UNPREDICTABLEEMERGENT CHARACTERISTICSSMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE LARGE IMPACTSHISTORY CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE
HUMANITYCHANGE CAN ONLY HAPPEN WITH PEOPLE
RECEIVEDWISDOM DOESN’T ALWAYS APPLY
CYNEFINIBM ET. AL.
“Often the only way to improve a complex system is to probe its limits by forcing it to fail in various ways.”
KEVIN KELLY
Disorder
Simple
Predictable causes and effectsUse best-practice
Focus on co-ordination
Complicated
Known causes and effectsUse good practice
Focus on co-operation
Complex
Understandable root causes Use emergent practice
(harness principles)Focus on collaboration
Chaotic
Unknowable causes / effectsUse new practice
Focus on co-creation
Sense. Analyze. Respond
Sense. Categorize. Respond
Sense. Explore. Respond
Explore. Sense. Respond
The Cynefin Model
BRAINSTORM PROBLEMS FOR EACH PART OF THE CYNEFIN MODELWHAT KIND OF INTERVENTIONS / APPROACHES?
“Part of reinventing the sacred is to heal...injuries that we hardly know we suffer. If we are members of a universe in which emergence and ceaseless creativity abound, if we take that creativity as a sense of God we can share, the resulting sense of the sacredness of all of life and the planet can help orient our lives beyond the consumerism and commodification the industrialized world now lives, heal the split between reason and faith, heal the split between science and the humanities, heal the want of spirituality, heal the wound derived from the false reductionist belief that we live in a world of fact without values, and help us jointly build a global ethic. These are what is at stake in finding a new scientific worldview that enables us to reinvent the sacred.”
STUART KAUFFMAN
HEARTCLARITY, POSSIBILITY
WHAT KIND OF CONTEXT ARE YOU WORKING IN?HOW DOES THIS IMPACT YOUR POTENTIAL INTERVENTIONS?WHAT WOULD BE YOUR YEAR 1 IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY?
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSFRANK BARRETT & DAVID COOPERRIDER (AI)PETER SENGE (SYSTEMS)STANFORD ENCYLOPEDIA OF PHILOSOPHYWIKIPEDIAMICHELLE HOLLIDAY (COMPLEXITY)BELTOWSKA & RAE (SYSTEMS IMAGES)AIDAN WARD & RICHARD VERYARD (SYSTEMS)RICHARD SEEL (COMPLEXITY)
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