(Wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda) Exhibit 1: Financial summary (Rs mn) Year end: March FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e Net sales 1,614 1,747 1,683 2,289 3,548 5,890 Growth (%) 29.1 8.3 -3.7 36.0 55.0 66.0 Operating margin (%) 4.7 5.9 1.9 7.3 8.2 10.0 PAT 53 77 9 115 209 433 Adjusted PAT 53 77 9 115 209 433 EPS (Rs) 1.9 2.8 0.3 4.2 7.5 15.7 Growth (%) -19.8 44.3 -88.4 1182.1 81.9 107.6 P/E(x) 64.9 36.8 499.5 39.5 21.7 10.5 ROE (%) 6.5 7.1 0.8 8.8 13.4 23.1 ROCE (%) 7.5 8.4 1.3 9.4 13.8 23.3 Debt/equity (x) 0.12 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 P/Bv (x) 3.3 2.5 3.9 3.1 2.7 2.2 Source: Company, BOBCAPSe EPC Industrie Ltd. (Mahindra & Mahindra Group Co.) If there is any company which can benefit out of Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchhayi Yojana (PMKSY) then its Mahindra’s EPC; initiate with BUY The government under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayi Yojana (PMKSY) launched mega irrigation scheme worth Rs 500bn which will give a boost to irrigation sector as a whole. EPC Industrie (EPC) presently has 5.5% market share in the micro irrigation space. We initiate coverage on EPC with a BUY rating and a price target of Rs 313 implying 91% upside. We expect EPC’s revenue/earnings to grow at a CAGR of ~52%/264% respectively over FY15-18e led by 1) PMKSY scheme of Rs 500bn over five years, 2) ~2600 dealers network spread over 17 states 3) strong parentage of M&M, 4) well established product portfolio. Huge opportunities laying; as Govt launches mega irrigation scheme of Rs 500bn under PMKSY: The union cabinet under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayi Yojana (PMKSY) launched mega irrigation scheme worth Rs 500bn (spent over next five years; for FY16 the allocation is of Rs 53bn). This scheme will focus on improving irrigation in non-rain-fed areas as well as strive to improve water efficiency through the country. India is a second largest country under crop cultivation (~142 mn ha.). Even though ~60% of the cultivated land is still dependent on the monsoons for the cultivation. The PMKSY aims to ensure access to some means of protective irrigation to all agricultural farms in the country, to produce 'per drop more crop'. Higher Scope for expansion in market share, profitability: At present Jain Irrigation is a market leader with ~55% market share followed by private player Netafim India (~20% market share). We believe, going forward EPC can easily expand its market share (~5.5% to ~15%) and profitability (~ led by 1) strong support from the parent company (M&M), 2) EPC can also use M&M’s agri business network for its own expansion, 3) EPS has better debtors days and Debt to Equity ratios than its peers, we further believe, EPC can improve upon its margin once economies of scale take place. (Market leader Jain Irrigation enjoys~12% EBITDA margins.) Consumers reach through strong network of channel partners: EPC currently has ~2600 channel partners spread in ~17 states. MIS sales are driven by strong demand in states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and Haryana. The strong network with the help of parent company M&M can help EPC to expand its reach pan India level. Valuation: At CMP of Rs 164, the stock trades at PE of 37.8x/20.8x/10x of FY16/17/18e respectively. We initiate the stock with a BUY rating and a target price of Rs 313. (20x of FY18e). Vaishali Parkar Kumar | [email protected] | +91 22 6138 9381 Price Price Target Up/Down (%) Rs. 164 Rs. 313 * Listed on BSE only Bloomberg Code EPC. IN Share Holding (%) Promoters 54.78 FII 1.64 DIIs 1.28 Stock Data Nifty 8,485 Sensex 28,093 52 week high/low 237/128 Maket Cap (Rs. bn) 4.52 Face value 10 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 6M 1Y Absolute 25.7 0.5 7.4 -23.9 Relative to Sensex 21.5 2.7 4.1 -31.2 Relative Performance 91 EPCI.BO. Reuters Code As on 31st Mar, 2015 50 100 150 200 250 Jul-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 BSE Sensex EPC Industries Source:-Bloomberg Sector: PLASTIC PRODUCT 6 th July, 2015 Initiating coverage BUY
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(Wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda)
Exhibit 1: Financial summary (Rs mn)
Year end: March FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e
Net sales 1,614 1,747 1,683 2,289 3,548 5,890
Growth (%) 29.1 8.3 -3.7 36.0 55.0 66.0
Operating margin (%) 4.7 5.9 1.9 7.3 8.2 10.0
PAT 53 77 9 115 209 433
Adjusted PAT 53 77 9 115 209 433
EPS (Rs) 1.9 2.8 0.3 4.2 7.5 15.7
Growth (%) -19.8 44.3 -88.4 1182.1 81.9 107.6
P/E(x) 64.9 36.8 499.5 39.5 21.7 10.5
ROE (%) 6.5 7.1 0.8 8.8 13.4 23.1
ROCE (%) 7.5 8.4 1.3 9.4 13.8 23.3
Debt/equity (x) 0.12 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
P/Bv (x) 3.3 2.5 3.9 3.1 2.7 2.2
Source: Company, BOBCAPSe
$Com panyName$
EPC Industrie Ltd. (Mahindra & Mahindra Group Co.)
If there is any company which can benefit out of Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchhayi Yojana (PMKSY) then its Mahindra’s EPC; initiate with BUY
The government under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayi Yojana
(PMKSY) launched mega irrigation scheme worth Rs 500bn which will
give a boost to irrigation sector as a whole. EPC Industrie (EPC)
presently has 5.5% market share in the micro irrigation space. We
initiate coverage on EPC with a BUY rating and a price target of Rs 313
implying 91% upside. We expect EPC’s revenue/earnings to grow at a
CAGR of ~52%/264% respectively over FY15-18e led by 1) PMKSY
scheme of Rs 500bn over five years, 2) ~2600 dealers network spread
over 17 states 3) strong parentage of M&M, 4) well established product
portfolio.
Huge opportunities laying; as Govt launches mega irrigation scheme of
Rs 500bn under PMKSY: The union cabinet under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi
India being the 2nd largest land under cultivation (~142 mn ha) has a huge scope especially
when the 65% of cultivated land is dependent on monsoons. Irrigation can help to 1)reduce
over dependence on monsoons, 2) advanced agricultural productivity, 3) bringing more land
under cultivation, 4) reducing instability in output levels, 5) creation of job opportunities, 6)
electricity and transport facilities, 7)control of floods and prevention of droughts.
The Task Force on Micro Irrigation set up by the Central Government has stated that more
areas can be brought under irrigation if modern methods of irrigation are adopted. It
estimates the total potential in India to be around 69.5 Million Hectares. Only around ~10%
of this potential has been tapped so far in India. Hence there is tremendous opportunity for
micro irrigation business in the years to come. The Indian Micro Irrigation Industry had been
growing at a CAGR of ~20% prior to FY13.
Scarcity of water; may create problems for highly populated country like India
Water is becoming increasingly scarce in many parts of the world and thereby limiting
agricultural development. The capacity of large countries like India to efficiently develop and
manage water resources is likely to be a key determinant for global food security in 21st
century.
India’s annual precipitation (rainfall & snowfall) is around 4000 BCM (Billion Cubic Meters) (or
4000 lakh crore litres). Out of this, close to 80% either gets washed away into the sea or is
subject to evaporation and percolation in the ground. Only about 20% or 800 BCM is currently
available for use. 80% of this usable water is utilized for Agriculture. India is currently on the
verge of being water stressed (< 1500 Cu m per capita) and it is estimated that by the year
2050,led by growing population and the pressure that it puts on agriculture, India will be on
the brink of becoming a water scarce country (< 1000 Cu m per capita).
Since agriculture is the major water-consuming sector in India, demand management in
agriculture is crucial to reduce the demand for water to match the available future supplies. A
number of demand management strategies and programmes have been introduced to save
water and increase the existing water use efficiency in Indian agriculture. One such method
introduced in Indian agriculture is micro-irrigation, which includes both drip and sprinkler
method of irrigation.
Exhibit 2: Water availability in India
433 231 202
690
403 287
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Utilizable Present use Available
Billio
n Cubic
Mete
r (B
CM
)/A
nnum
Ground water Surface water
Source: BOBCAPSe, Government of India (PMKSY presentation)
EPC Industrie Ltd. | 7 July 2015
| Equity research | 3
(Wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda)
Micro-irrigation - today’s requirement
Micro-irrigation (MI) has proved to be an efficient method in saving water and increasing
water use efficiency as compared to the conventional surface method of irrigation. Micro-
irrigation was introduced primarily to save water and increase the water use efficiency in
agriculture. However, it also delivers many other economic and social benefits.
Reduction in water consumption due to drip irrigation systems over the surface irrigation
varies from 30 to 70% for different crops. Productivity gain due to use of micro-irrigation is
estimated to be in the range of 20 to 90% for different crops. It also reduces weed problems,
soil erosion and cost of cultivation substantially, especially in labour-intensive operations. The
reduction in water consumption in micro-irrigation also reduces the energy use (electricity)
that is required to lift water from irrigation wells. Micro-irrigation can also be adopted in all
kind of lands, which is not generally possible through flood irrigation method.
Research suggests that Drip Irrigation systems are not only suitable for those areas that are
presently under cultivation, but can also be operated efficiently in undulating terrain, rolling
topography, hilly areas, barren land and areas which have shallow soils. Given the population
growth and increasing requirement of agricultural commodities, there is a need to increase
the area under cultivation. Micro-irrigation can be one of the viable options for expanding area
under cultivation. Investment in Micro Irrigation also appears to be economically viable, even
without availing State subsidy.
Exhibit 3: Reasons for Micro Irrigation System
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Subsidy
Reduced labour dependency
Access to credit
Long term cost reduction
Higher productivity
Source: BOBCAPSe, Company
EPC Industrie Ltd. | 7 July 2015
| Equity research | 4
(Wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda)
Investment rationale
The government under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayi Yojana (PMKSY) launched
mega irrigation scheme worth Rs 500bn (spent over next five years; for FY16 the
allocation is of Rs 53bn), which will give a boost to irrigation sector as a whole. EPC
presently has 5.5% market share in the micro irrigation space. Since, business is in
pretty nascent stages, the profitability is low and benefits of operating leverage will
take a while to play out.
We believe EPC with the PMSKY project and strong parentage of M&M can achieve
market share upwards of 15-20% with EBITDA margins of 15%+ over next 2-3-5
years.
We are quite confident that over next 5 years, EPC will grow at a CAGR of 51% We
feel the way application of agro chemicals is increasing , limited cultivable land and
importance of water usage increasing, growth in micro irrigation business can be
quite exponential in the times to come.
Huge opportunities laying; as Govt launches mega irrigation scheme of Rs 500bn under PMKSY
The union cabinet under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayi Yojana (PMKSY) launched mega
irrigation scheme worth Rs 500bn. This scheme will focus on improving irrigation in non-rain-
fed areas as well as strive to improve water efficiency through the country.
India is a second largest country under crop cultivation (~142 mn ha.). Even though ~65% of
the cultivated land is still dependent on the monsoons for the cultivation. The PMKSY aims to
ensure access to some means of protective irrigation to all agricultural farms in the country,
to produce 'per drop more crop'. This initiative of the Government will help to boost
productivity, improve crop quality and help farmers upgrade to modern methods of farming.
This scheme will give boost to irrigation manufacturers; we believe EPC with strong product
portfolio and strong support from M&M will be the highest beneficiary going forward.
Exhibit 4: Governments policy under PMSKY project
Need for Gap Filling
Water Sources
Distribution Management
Accelerated Irrigation Benefit
Programme (AIBP) Integrated Watershed
Management Programme
(IWMP), MGNREGS, NMSA
Command Area Development
(CAD)
National Mission for Sustainable
Agriculture (NMSA) : Drip-
sprinkler irrigation, Moisture
conservation
Fragmented approach rather than ‘end to end’ solution
Source: BOBCAPSe, Government of India (PMKSY presentation)
EPC Industrie Ltd. | 7 July 2015
| Equity research | 5
(Wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda)
Strong parentage of “Mahindra & Mahindra Group”
Mahindra & Mahindra acquired EPC in 2011. Mahindra & Mahindra has presence in the tractor and farm equipment business and the agriculture domain through Mahindra Samriddhi centers across the country. Mahindra & Mahindra group has strong desires in Agriculture space. It is clear that as the agricultural business vertical of Mahindra and Mahindra complements EPC’s business, it provides scope for exploiting synergies to create value for both businesses. Mahindra’s Farm Equipment sector’s management bandwidth and competence in marketing and operations will augur well for EPC.
Exhibit 5: Revenue growth trend after M&M’s acquisition
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16e
FY17e
FY18e
(%)
Rs.
Mn
Revenue Growth %
Source: BOBCAPSe, Company
Synergy with M&M finance can work wonders
M&M finance is the subsidiary of M&M which is working in the NBFC space ( with a vision to
transform rural and semi-urban India into a self-reliant), along with ~1,000 branches. M&M
can use synergy between EPC and M&M finance to expand EPC’s network under PMKSY
scheme.
The way business can happen between M&M Financials and EPC can be better understood
with the help of following example based on Gujarat model:
M&M is in sweet spot having an agri NBFC, Irrigation company+ strong dealers network across state, due to PMKSY scheme, this model can work wonders for EPC
EPC approaches farmers who has desires to buy irrigation equipment
Farmers puts Rs 5,000 to buy the irrigation equipment
M&M Finance can give loan upto Rs 20,000
Product purchase from EPC Industrie worth Rs 25,000
Farmers apply to govt. for subsidy through DBT (Direct Bank Transfer)
Govt. Transfer subsidy ~Rs 20,000 to ESCROW A/c through farmer to M&M
M&M Finance receives money
Farmer is debt free
Farmer desires to buy the irrigation equipment of ~Rs25,000
EPC Industrie Ltd. | 7 July 2015
| Equity research | 6
(Wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda)
Higher Scope for expansion in market share, profitability
India has a second largest land under cultivation (~142mn. Ha) out of which ~60% cultivable
land is still dependent on the monsoon. So far ~70mn ha land has got covered under
irrigation system, out of which only ~6mn land is under MIS (Micro-irrigation system). The
government of India is also giving the importance for micro- irrigation under PMKSY scheme.
We believe EPC has a huge potential to grow under this scheme along with its ~2600 dealers
spread across 17states, which they can further expand through M&M’s agri business network.
Exhibit 6: Industry size and opportunity for EPC to grow
10,767
6,250 4,922
3,354 2,983
2,008 1,864 1,850 1,038 1,084 547
0.20%
2.2%13%
0.7% 9% 26% 22% 0 28% 12% 51% -
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Utt
ar
Pra
desh
MP
Raja
sth
an
Punja
b
Guja
rat
Mahara
shtr
a
Hary
ana
Bhira
Karn
ata
ka
Wst
Bengal
Andhra
Pra
desh
Are
a (
x 1
000 H
a)
Potential Penetration
Source: BOBCAPSe, Company’s 4QFY15 presentation
At present Jain Irrigation is a market leader with ~55% market share followed by private
player Netafim India (~20% market share). We believe, going forward EPC can easily expand
its market share and profitability led by 1) strong support from the parent company (M&M), 2)
EPC can also use M&M’s agri business network for its own expansion, 3) EPS is a zero debt
and better debtors days company than its peers, we further believe, EPC can improve upon its
margin once economies of scale take place (Market leader Jain Irrigation enjoys ~12%
EBITDA margins).
Exhibit 7: Market share distribution in irrigation sector
Jain Irrigation, 55%
Netafim India, 20%
EPC Industries,
5.5%
Others, 20%
Source: BOBCAPSe, Company
Exhibit 8: Peer comparison
Jai Irrigation Netafim India EPC Industrie
Dealers Network 4000 1500 2600
Market Share 55% 20% 5.5%
Rvenue (Rs Mn) 60508 7588* 1683
EBITDA margin 12% 5.4%* 1.9%
Debtors Day (Avg. 3 years) 143 113* 107
Debt to Equity ratio 1.21 0.54* 0.004
Source: BOBCAPSe, Company
*(Netafim India’s nos. based on FY14)
EPC Industrie Ltd. | 7 July 2015
| Equity research | 7
(Wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda)
Well established brand with superior quality
EPC has been in the business of manufacturing MIS for over 30 years (since 1986). It has
developed technical expertise for providing reliable and quality products. This quality of the
hardware delivered to the farmer is the most crucial aspect in determining the performance of
the MIS as regards to the yield of the crop, quantity of water applied, quantity of fertilizers
delivered to the plant, energy consumption etc. EPC is considered to be one among the very few
Total liabilities 1,475 1,662 1,524 1,893 2,270 2,990
Source: Company, BOBCAPSe
EPC Industrie Ltd. | 7 July 2015
| Equity research | 16
(Wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda)
Exhibit 22: Cash Flow Statement
Y/E Mar (Rsmn) FY13 F14 F15 F16e F17e F18e
Profit after tax 53 77 9 115 209 433
Depreciation 27 30 27 29 31 32
Chg in working capital (104) (84) (2) (53) (229) (616)
Total tax paid - - - - - -
Cash flow from operations
(24) 23 34 91 11 (151)
Capital expenditure (52) (38) (8) (25) (25) (25)
Change in investments 0 0 - - - -
Cash flow from investments
(52) (38) (8) (25) (25) (25)
Free cash flow (76) (15) 26 66 (14) (176)
Issue of shares 104 0 0 - - -
Net inc/dec in debt (99) (122) (4) - - -
Dividend (incl. tax) - - - (1) (1) (1)
Other financing activities 300 (2) 5 192 0 0
Cash flow from financing
305 (124) 1 192 (0) (0)
Inc/(Dec) in Cash & Bank bal.
229 (139) 28 257 (15) (176)
Exhibit 23: Ratio analysis
Y/E Mar FY13 F14 F15 F16e F17e F18e
Per share data (Rs)
EPS 1.9 2.8 0.3 4.2 7.5 15.7
CEPS 2.9 3.8 1.3 5.2 8.7 16.8
DPS - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0
BV 38.2 40.9 41.4 52.5 60.0 75.7
Profitability ratios (%)
Gross margins 25.2 24.2 24.4 25.3 25.8 27.3
Operating margins 4.7 5.9 1.9 7.3 8.2 10.0
Net margins 3.3 4.4 0.5 5.0 5.9 7.4
Valuation ratios (x)
PE 64.9 36.8 499.5 39.5 21.7 10.5
P/BV 3.3 2.5 3.9 3.1 2.7 2.2
EV/EBITDA 42.4 25.3 133.7 24.0 13.9 7.1
EV/Sales 2.0 1.5 2.5 1.7 1.1 0.7
RoE 6.5 7.1 0.8 8.8 13.4 23.1
RoCE 7.5 8.4 1.3 9.4 13.8 23.3
RoIC 5 6 (0) 10 18 28
Source: Company, BOBCAPSe
EPC Industrie Ltd. | 7 July 2015
| Equity research | 17
(Wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of Baroda)
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