Commodity Outlook 29.09.11

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DAILY COMMODITY OUTLOOK 29th

Sep, 11

1

NCDEX SOYAOIL REF. OCT Contrac t – Technic al Out look & Trading

Stra tegy

The price of Soya oil witnessed a sharp correction from the highs of ` 659.45 levels as on 14th

Sep, 2011 and broke down below its key support zones placed between the ` 639--` 637.40 levels.

Traders would also note from the chart above that the recent correction was on the back of

strong surge in volumes, indicating strong supply pressure in the counter.

Some of the other technical factors that support the bearish outlook are that the price is now

trading below its moving averages and the MACD indicator is also trading in sell mode. We

believe that the price of soya oil can test levels of ` 624.50 / ` 621.75 levels.

We recommend traders to sell between ` 629.25--` 631.50 levels with a stop loss placed above

` 635.65 levels for downside targets mentioned above.

NCDEX SOYAOIL R

OCT. CONTRAC

OPEN ` 633.5

HIGH ` 633.5

LOW ` 628.0

CLOSE ` 630.3




Sep, 11

2

COMMODITIES TO WATCH

MCX Crude Oil Oct CMP—` 4029.00

Technical Out look & Trading Strat egy:-

The price action of Crude oil since 26 th

Aug, 2011 levels has been taking shape of a bearish head & shoulders

price pattern on its intraday charts. The formation of this price pattern is a bearish sign and further weakness from current levels could bring about a sharp correction in the prices of crude oil. The momentum indicators are

trading in sell mode and still showing signs of weakness despite the recent pullback from the lows of ` 3853 levels.

We recommend day / positional traders to take short positions between ` 4050--` 4005 levels with a stop loss placed

above ` 4101 levels for downside targets of ` 3940 / ` 3890 levels.

INVENTORY DATA

LME Warehouse Stocks (Inventory) and Volume28 Sep 2011

METALS Inventory Volume

MT +/- MT +/-

Aluminum 4,573,025 -5,200 7,088,075 837,300

Al Alloy 134,900 0 48,500 23,220

NASAAC 151,400 420 81,940 -42,520

Copper 466,675 -725 4,613,800 -794,275

Lead 373,700 -525 1,093,275 -264,500

Nickel 97,290 -168 215,958 -25,332

Tin 21,450 155 36,015 -5,440

Zinc 827,325 425 2,321,250 -541,050

KEY SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVELS

Commodity Support – 1 Support – 2 CLOSE-PRICE Resistance – 1 Resistance - 2

NCDEX Chana 3474 3417 3530 3628 3725

NCDEX Pepper 35538 35157 35920 36388 36857

NCDEX Soya Oil 622 614 630.30 639 647

NCDEX Jeera 15331 15224 15439 15531 15624

NCDEX Guarseed 4587 4553 4622 4671 4721

MCX Copper 343 335 351.60 367 383




Sep, 11

3

MCX Nickel 876 862 890.30 916 941

MCX Lead 96 95 97.35 100 102

MCX Silver 48910 47410 50410 53152 55894

MCX Gold 25386 25099 25673 26182 26691

MCX Crude 3990 3951 4029 4098 4167

Disclaimer

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Commodity Outlook 29.09.11

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