Commodity Outlook 27.09.11

DAILY COMMODITY OUTLOOK  27th

Sep, 11

1

MCX CRUDEOIL OCT Contrac t – Tech nical Out look & Trading Strat egy

The price of Crude Oil faced heavy selling pressure over the past few sessions of trade as it 

corrected from the highs of `  4313 levels to register a low of `  3853 levels during the previous

session. But the key observation to be made is that the price of crude has registered an inverted 

head and shoulders pattern breakout on its intraday charts during the previous session. This is a

bullish formation and the measuring implication of the pattern suggests that the price can

advance to levels of `  4080 and/or `  4120 levels. The momentum indicators have also turned into

buy mode signaling a near term to short term reversal in the counter.

We recommend traders to buy between `  4020--`   3980 levels with a stop loss placed below

`       3933 levels for upside targets of `  4080 / `  4120 levels expected to be achieved in 1-2 sessions

 of trade.

MCX  CRUDEOIL

OCT. CONTRACT 

OPEN `  3985

HIGH `  4020

LOW `  3853

CLOSE `  4004

DAILY COMMODITY OUTLOOK  27th

Sep, 11

2

COMMODITIES TO WATCH

 NCDEX RM Seed Oct CMP—`       2902.00

Technical Out look & Trading Strat egy:-

The price of Mustard seed has been on a decline since it registered a high of  `       3080 levels as on 01 st Aug, 2011.

Since then it has been taking support at its downward sloping trend line support on its daily charts. But the price

  has now registered a breakdown from this downwards sloping trend line and this is likely to have negative

implications for the price. The price has also closed below its key moving average clusters on the daily charts and 

 the indicators are also trading in bearish mode.

We recommend traders to take short positions between `       2915--`       2895 levels with a stop loss placed above `       2953

levels for downside targets of `       2850 / `       2825 levels.

INVENTORY DATA 

LME Warehouse Stocks (Inventory) and Volume26 Sep 2011 

METALS Inventory Volume

MT +/- MT +/-

Aluminum 4,583,800 -4,475 10,512,900 2,506,900

Al Alloy 132,920 0 37,780 -8,420 

NASAAC 151,100 -180 77,880 -1,900 

Copper 463,575 -975 5,926,125 84,225

Lead 373,800 -225 1,401,725 -76,450 

Nickel 97,140 -102 395,898 87,288

Tin 21,405 90 43,485 -8,650 

Zinc 828,500 -2,475 2,762,150 129,650

KEY SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVELS

Commodity Support – 1 Support – 2 CLOSE-PRICE Resistance – 1 Resistance - 2

NCDEX Chana 3567 3526 3609 3675 3742

NCDEX Pepper 34398 33942 34855 35768 36682

NCDEX Soya Oil 624 615 633.90 641 648

NCDEX Jeera 14957 14714 15200 15514 15828

NCDEX Guarseed 4571 4510 4632 4707 4782

MCX Copper 350 334 366.10 376 386

DAILY COMMODITY OUTLOOK  27th

Sep, 11

3

MCX Nickel 857 813 900.80 933 966

MCX Lead 92 88 95.40 99 102

MCX Silver 47367 43158 51577 54243 56910

MCX Gold 24886 24085 25687 26594 27501

MCX Crude 3898 3792 4004 4065 4126

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