Coming Attractions from the Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment Lara Whitely Binder Lara Whitely Binder Alan Hamlet Alan Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Marketa McGuire Elsner Climate Impacts Group Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System Center for Science in the Earth System University of Washington University of Washington October 2, 2008 October 2, 2008 CIG Climate and Water Fall Forecast CIG Climate and Water Fall Forecast Meeting Meeting Climate science in Climate science in the public interest the public interest
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Coming Attractions from the Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment Lara Whitely Binder Alan Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Climate Impacts Group Center.
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Coming Attractions from the Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment
Climate Impacts GroupClimate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth SystemCenter for Science in the Earth SystemUniversity of Washington University of Washington
October 2, 2008October 2, 2008CIG Climate and Water Fall Forecast MeetingCIG Climate and Water Fall Forecast Meeting Climate science Climate science
in the public in the public interestinterest
HumanHuman HealthHealth
Agriculture/EconomicsAgriculture/Economics
SalmonSalmonForest ResourcesForest Resources
CoastsCoasts EnergyEnergy
InfrastructureInfrastructure
Water ResourcesWater Resources
A comprehensive climate change
impacts assessment for Washington State
AdaptationAdaptation
Project Domain: WA and the Project Domain: WA and the PNWPNWTo assess impacts in water and other sectors, the analysis must include all of the PNW = wide range wide range of data of data available for available for all the PNW!all the PNW!
Detailed case studies for water supply are being done for the Puget Sound Region and Yakima Basin
Reduced snowpack and changes in soil moisture will occur.
Declines in April 1 SWE vary between 35%-41% for the 2040s, depending on the emissions scenario.
Hydrology and Water Resources
** Preliminary results - subject to change**
• Average annual SWE in the Yakima watershed above Parker is projected to be 31-68% of historic levels by the 2040s for two “middle of the road” scenarios• Winter streamflows increase as basin shifts to rain-dominant
basin
Increasing thermal stress likely to become most problematic forsalmon in the interior Columbia River Basin.
In Western WA salmon, increases in the magnitude of extreme high/low flows likely to be most problematic
Projected Maximum Weekly Average Water Temperatures –
2040s
49% of stations exceed the 21ºC (70°F) water quality criteria (changes relative to 2001-2007)
Salmon
• Longer growing seasons is projected, especially for summer crops. Range for the 2040s: +10 days for Franklin/Walla Walla counties to + 27 days for Whatcom County
• Changes in spring and summer aridity projected in all agriculturally important counties
• Diseases will generally become more problematic over the next century, especially as a result of warmer temperatures.
Agriculture
• Heating degree days will continue to dominate in the 2020s and 2040s, but cooling degree days become a much more important factor in eastern WA as the region warms.
Historic A1B 2020 A1B 2040
Cooling Degree Days (F)
Energy
Improved Access to Hydrologic Scenarios in
the Columbia River Basin
Answers to FAQ regarding WA 2860 from the Department of Ecology website:http://www.ecy.wa.gov/pubs/0611014.pdf
Goals:
• Create a comprehensive, up-to-date, self-consistent, publicly available hydrologic database to support long-range planning
• Construct end-to-end process to allow updates of the database when new climate change scenarios are available
Regional Study Partners
• WA State Department of Ecology
• Bonneville Power Administration
• Northwest Power and Conservation Council
• State of Oregon
• Province of British Columbia (BC Hydro and The Ministry of Environment)