The Climate Impacts The Climate Impacts Group: Group: Climate Information and Decision-making in the Pacific Northwest Lara Whitely Binder Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group University of Washington September 22, 2004 Climate Science in the Public Interest
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The Climate Impacts Group: The Climate Impacts Group: Climate Information and Decision-making in the Pacific Northwest Lara Whitely Binder Center for Science.
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The Climate Impacts The Climate Impacts Group:Group: Climate Information and Decision-making in the Pacific Northwest
Lara Whitely BinderCenter for Science in the Earth
SystemClimate Impacts Group
University of Washington
September 22, 2004Climate Science in the
Public Interest
The Climate Impacts Group
Water Resources
Aquatic Resources
Forests
Coasts
[Human Health]
[Agriculture]
Climate Variability• past variations and their impacts
• ability of institutions to respond to extremes
Climate Change• regional consequences of global warming
• adaptation/vulnerability to climate change
•Increase regional resilience to the impacts of climate variability and change
•Produce science useful to the decision-making communityO
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How Does CIG Support Planning for Climate Variability and Change?
Supporting Adaptation Through… …Research
Investigating spatially-relevant sensitivity to climate variability and change. Ex: ENSO impacts on PNW snowpack.
Provides the foundation for decision-support and outreach activities
…Decision-support tools Designed to facilitate use of climate information in
operations and planning
…Outreach Designed to provide regular dialogue between the
CIG and the stakeholder community
New CIG Web SiteNew CIG Web Site
CIG web site redesigned to better serve as a planning resource
Includes information on:
PNW climate variability and change
Climate impacts Forecasts and planning
tools Meetings and workshops CIG publications
http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Supporting Adaptation: Decision-support Tools
CIG Decision-Support Tools: Climate Variability
Seasonal climate outlook
Long-lead (1 year) climate-based streamflow forecast for the Columbia River and Snake River systems. Expanding to western U.S.
Six-month lead time reservoir forecasts tools (under development)
Oregon Coastal Coho salmon survival forecasts
Extreme events forecasting
Designed to help with management on seasonal to interannual time scales. Main “products”:
Seasonal Climate Outlook
Interpreting global ENSO forecasts and PDO state for PNW (temperature, precipitation).
Excerpt of the Fall 2004 - Winter 2005 forecast:Tropical Pacific now: The tropical Pacific has been slightly warmer than normal for several months, and is expected to continue so, with a chance that a weak El Niño event will occur this winter. (See the Climate Prediction Center's discussion.)What will it mean for the Northwest in coming months? With little forecasting help from the tropical Pacific, the odds for precipitation are roughly normal for the next year. The odds for temperature are also normal until winter, when above-average temperatures become more likely - a reflection largely of recent trends toward warmer weather (e.g., 8 of the last 10 winters have
been at least 1°F warmer than "normal" in Washington state).
Available on CIG, WA State Climatologist web sites (http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/cloutlook.shtml).
Lets resource managers begin hedging risks based on historically observed responses to ENSO and PDO.
Experimental 7-14 day extreme weather event risk assessment forecasts available for the PNW. Available for region or by specific stations.
Based on observed relationships between the probability of certain extreme weather events in the US and variations in Pacific North American atmospheric circulation pattern. Ex: PNW locations 2-4 times more likely to experience an
extremely high daily maximum temperature on positive vs. negative PNA days, depending on location
Forecasts include probabilities for: Extreme warm/cold days, days with extremely high precip,
Designed to help managers evaluate and respond to projected climate change impacts. Research focused on the 2020s and 2040s. Main “products”:
Temperature and Precipitation Temperature and Precipitation ScenariosScenarios
Projected changes in average annual PNW temperature and precipitation for the decades of the 2020s and 2040s
Providing range of projections allows for risk management (i.e., “what if” scenarios)
2020s Temperature Precipitation
Low + 0.9 °F + 2 %
Mean + 2.7 °F + 7%High + 4.7 °F + 14 %
2040s Temperature Precipitation
Low + 2.7 °F - 3 %
Mean + 4.1 °F + 7%High + 5.8°F + 14 %
Available on the CIG’s web site: http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccscenarios.shtml
Based on an average of 8 global climate models driven by an increase in equivalent CO2 of 1% per year. Benchmarked to the decade of the 1990s.
Changes in April 1 snowpack available at basin and sub-basin levels
Scenarios for April 1 SnowpackScenarios for April 1 Snowpack
Current Climate
-44% -58%
“2020s” (+3°F) “2040s” (+4.5°F)
Contact the CIG for availability
Client-based Research Client-based Research ConsultanciesConsultancies
City of Portland (2002) Tualatin River Basin (2004) Seattle Public Utilities (2004)
Average Monthly Bull Run Inflows1950-1999
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Inflo
ws,
cfs
Current ClimatePCM3 2040ECHAM4 2040HadCM2 2040HadCM3 2040
Climate change impacts on water
demand18%
Climate change impacts on water
supply16%
Impact of population growth on demand
(no climate change)66%
Climate Change Streamflow Climate Change Streamflow Scenario Tool for the Columbia Scenario Tool for the Columbia
River BasinRiver BasinWater policy workshops have highlighted the need to inject climate change information into existing river basin planning activities and to provide free access to streamflow scenarios.
Available at: http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccstreamflowtool/sft.shtml
Partners:
Northwest Power and Conservation Council
Idaho Dept of Water Resources
Supporting Adaptation: Outreach
Promotes regional understanding of climate impacts in PNW water resource management. Activities include:
Workshops and meetings Presentations and briefings One-on-one technical assistance Work with the local media Web site development and maintenance
Provides opportunity for feedback from the stakeholder community
Outreach
Technical Assistance for Watershed Planning
Building a foundation and forging relationships with state staff and local planning units
Developing language for use in planning documentation Developing GIS-based maps of watershed-scale impacts