Collision Risk Assessment Methodology for Parallel Approach Operations Modelling and Simulation in Air Traffic Management Stanley Förster, Hartmut Fricke, Markus Vogel sponsored by Eurocontrol Experimental Centre c/o Karim Zeghal, Bruno Rabiller London, 15 th of November 2017 Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Science „Friedrich List“ Institute of Logistics and Aviation
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Collision Risk Assessment Methodology for Parallel Approach Operations
Modelling and Simulation in Air Traffic Management
Stanley Förster, Hartmut Fricke, Markus Vogel
sponsored by Eurocontrol Experimental Centrec/o Karim Zeghal, Bruno Rabiller
London, 15th of November 2017
Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Science „Friedrich List“ Institute of Logistics and Aviation
Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Science „Friedrich List“ Insitute of Logistics and Aviation
Agenda
• Context and Motivation
• Background
• Assessment Methodology Overview
• Scenario: Blundering Aircraft
• Scenario: Loss of Separation
• Scenario-based Validation
• Outlook
Stanley Förster Collision Risk Assessment Methodology for Parallel Approach Operations
Slide 2
Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Science „Friedrich List“ Insitute of Logistics and Aviation
Context and Motivation
• SESAR Goals (by 2020)
Increase Capacity and safety
Decrease Environmental impact and costs
• SESAR Solution PJ.01-03 – Dynamic and
Enhanced Routes and Airspace
Thread 1: Improved parallel approach
operations supported by PBN
• Safety Assessment Metrics:
Probability of separation infringements
and collisions
Stanley Förster Collision Risk Assessment Methodology for Parallel Approach Operations
Slide 3
Capacity (x3)
Safety (x10)
Environmental
impact (-10%)
Costs (-50%)
Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Science „Friedrich List“ Insitute of Logistics and Aviation
Independent Parallel Approach Environments
• ICAO allows independent approach operations to parallel
runways spaced at least 3,400 ft
• At intercept, separation between aircraft on adjacent
approach tracks is required: 3 NM lateral or 1,000 ft vertical
Stanley Förster Collision Risk Assessment Methodology for Parallel Approach Operations
Slide 4
NTZ
RunwayNOZ
NOZ Runway
Glideslope Intercept
Localizer Intercept
Runway Threshold
≥ 2,000 ft
≥ 2 NM
≤ 30°
≥ 1 NM
no
tto
scal
e
Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Science „Friedrich List“ Insitute of Logistics and Aviation
Assessment Methodology Overview
• Threats considered for safety assessment
Blundering aircraft on final approach
Blundering aircraft during intercept
Loss of separation during intercept
• Those make up „scenarios“ for the simulation and calculations
Stanley Förster Collision Risk Assessment Methodology for Parallel Approach Operations
Slide 5
Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Science „Friedrich List“ Insitute of Logistics and Aviation
ABMS Framework
• Agent-based Monte Carlo simulation
• Entities
Aircraft (physical body, point mass model)
FMS (flight planning)
Pilot (reaction time)
Radar (traffic surveillance)
ATCO (monitoring / controlling)
• Fast-time capable
Successfully ran on HPC cluster at TUD
Stanley Förster Collision Risk Assessment Methodology for Parallel Approach Operations
Slide 6
Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Science „Friedrich List“ Insitute of Logistics and Aviation
Blundering aircraft
Stanley Förster Collision Risk Assessment Methodology for Parallel Approach Operations
Slide 7
Worst-case-blunder: Blundering
aircraft does not react to ATCO
commands
General blunder case: ATCO
detects blunder, issues breakout
commands, aircraft obey
• Blunder = aircraft unintentionally diverges from approach path
• Not a result of navigation tolerances
NTZ
Blunder
Evader
no
tto
scal
e
NTZ
Worst-case blunder
Evader
Source: ICAO
Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Science „Friedrich List“ Insitute of Logistics and Aviation
Scenario: Blundering Aircraft
Stanley Förster Collision Risk Assessment Methodology for Parallel Approach Operations
Slide 8
• Goal: Determine Probability of (near mid-air) collision