Collaborative Convective Forecast Product “CCFP” CygnaCom Solutions, Inc. Suite 100 West, 7927 Jones Branch Drive, McLean, VA 22102-3305 (703) 848-0883 Kevin Browne FAA ARW-100 Mark Phaneuf CygnaCom Solutions Denny Nestoros CygnaCom Solutions October 13, 1999
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product “CCFP”. Kevin BrowneFAA ARW-100 Mark PhaneufCygnaCom Solutions Denny NestorosCygnaCom Solutions. October 13, 1999. CygnaCom Solutions, Inc. u Suite 100 West, 7927 Jones Branch Drive, McLean, VA 22102-3305 u (703) 848-0883. Agenda. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product “CCFP”
CygnaCom Solutions, Inc. Suite 100 West, 7927 Jones Branch Drive, McLean, VA 22102-3305 (703) 848-0883
Kevin Browne FAA ARW-100Mark Phaneuf CygnaCom SolutionsDenny Nestoros CygnaCom Solutions
October 13, 1999
2
Agenda
• Goal/Purpose• Evaluation methods• Evaluation results• Next steps
3
Goal/Purpose
• GOAL– Improve the decision making process within the CDM
framework and lead to reduction in delays, reroutes and cancellations influenced by convective events
• PURPOSE– A test program to evaluate the CCFP in an operational
setting to determine its usefulness in aiding the decision making process for ATC service providers and airlines with the CDM framework
5
Evaluation Methods
• Production assessment• Quantitative assessment • Qualitative assessment being done by Forecast
Systems Lab (FSL)• Questionnaire
6
Production Assessment
• The objective of this phase of the evaluation was to determine how well the coordination process worked and what procedures were needed to improve it
7
Production Assessment Continued
• Production Assessment– Number of participants– Number of messages– Number of iterations– Number of agreements– Number of agreements by default– Number of disagreements– Length of collaboration– Trends
Participants
15.16
16.71
14.34
14.63
15.31
15.56
16.06
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
15.00
15.50
16.00
16.50
17.00
AVG Glbl AvgMorn
Glbl AvgAft
Glbl AvgMay
Glbl AvgJune
Glbl AvgJuly
Glbl AvgAugust
Metric
Nu
mb
er
Messages
19.63
21.07
17.97
18.73
18.98
20.47
19.32
16.00
16.50
17.00
17.50
18.00
18.50
19.00
19.50
20.00
20.50
21.00
21.50
AVG Glbl AvgMorn
Glbl AvgAft
Glbl AvgMay
Glbl AvgJune
Glbl AvgJuly
Glbl AvgAugust
Metric
Nu
mb
er
Iterations
6.46 6.58
5.97
3.60
5.05
8.03
6.65
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
AVG Glbl AvgMorn
Glbl AvgAft
Glbl AvgMay
Glbl AvgJune
Glbl AvgJuly
Glbl AvgAugust
Metric
Nu
mb
er
Agreement
5.76
6.16
5.06
4.07
5.43
6.06 6.03
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
AVG Glbl AvgMorn
Glbl AvgAft
Glbl AvgMay
Glbl AvgJune
Glbl AvgJuly
Glbl AvgAugust
Metric
Nu
mb
er
Default Agreement
9.21
9.45
8.93
8.33
9.00
9.24
9.68
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
9.50
10.00
AVG Glbl AvgMorn
Glbl AvgAft
Glbl AvgMay
Glbl AvgJune
Glbl AvgJuly
Glbl AvgAugust
Metric
Nu
mb
er
Disagreement
0.52
0.45
0.23
0.67
0.50
0.31
0.11
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
AVG Glbl AvgMorn
Glbl AvgAft
Glbl AvgMay
Glbl AvgJune
Glbl AvgJuly
Glbl AvgAugust
Metric
Nu
mb
er
Minutes of Conversation
49.83
47.58
53.45
43.90
50.02
52.42 52.15
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
AVG Glbl AvgMorn
Glbl AvgAft
Glbl AvgMay
Glbl AvgJune
Glbl AvgJuly
Glbl AvgAugust
Metric
Nu
mb
er
15
Quantitative Evaluation Method
• Quantitative Assessment– Historical baseline
• Certain days from 1999 that will show traffic movement and deviations from their filed flight plan during non-CCFP days.
• Tracks time of delay from flight-plan route
– Current Procedures with CCFP• Certain days from 1999 data with similar representation showing
movement and deviations but comparing how it was handled with CCFP using POET’s data mining tools
– This analysis will evaluate the differences between system performance under the current procedures (the baseline) versus the system performance with the CCFP
16
Quantitative Evaluation Method Continued
• Quantitative Assessment Continued– Four specific areas will be evaluated:
• Delays attributable to weather
• Net deviation (in time) from planned arrival time caused by weather
• Number of cancellations
• Number of diversions
17
Quantitative Results
POET Analysis, Actual Flight Time < Planned Flight TimeAirlinesPeriod / Metric