COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 Are the emerging middle classes the key to success? The middle class and political demands in Russia > Natalia ZUBAREVICH, Professor of Moscow state university, Director of regional program of independent institute for social policy 1
COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013 Are the emerging middle classes the key to success? The middle class and political demands in Russia > Natalia ZUBAREVICH,
Dec 17, 2015
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COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
Are the emerging middle classes the key to success?The middle class and political demandsin Russia
> Natalia ZUBAREVICH,Professor of Moscow state university, Director of regional program of independent institute for social policy
1
/
Russia: GDP and money income growth rate, (1998 = 100 %)
2COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP Money income
20% population with the highest income
- 350%
20% population with the highest income
- 350%
/
Middle classes criteria: low consistency,2011, % households
3COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
Professional status
21%
Professional status
21%
Income and property
28%
Income and property
28%
Self-identification
25%
Self-identification
25%
10%10%
9%9%
10%10%
5%5%
GGS survey - 2011: 11,261 households
Source: IISP
Core of the middle class (3 criteria) only 5%
households
2 criteria + 3d(above low class)19%
Core of the middle class (3 criteria) only 5%
households
2 criteria + 3d(above low class)19%
/
Russia: Socio-economic stratification,%
4COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
1923
24
12 16 19
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2007 2011
middle classMC periphery below MCLC peripherylow class
Source: IISP
/
Moscow 40% more 2011
Moscow 40% more 2011
Entrepreneurs share decline: 2007 – 13% 2011 – 11%
Entrepreneurs share decline: 2007 – 13% 2011 – 11%
MC: 25-49 years old singles and couples MC: 25-49 years old singles and couples
Middle class: spatial, labor and age structure
5COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
MC share of all households, %
Source: IISP
1612
4
1916
8
30
21
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
regional centers other cities and towns countryside
2004 2007 2011
100%
23
36
11
23
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
not working
both sectors
entrepreneurs
market sector
budget sector
womenmen
3
2
1
-450 -300 -150 0 150 300 450
less 29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
more 70
33
2211
/
20
11
9
108
5
26
12
31%
Russia-1big cities
31-35%
Russia-3small towns
and rural periphery
Russia-2medium sized industrial cities
Spatial structure of Russian population, % Center-periphery model
6COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
cities 1 million more
500 thous.-1 million
250 – 500 thousand
100 – 250 thousand
50-100 thousand
50 thousand less
small urban settlements
rural settlements
Population
Ru
ssia
-1R
uss
ia-2
Ru
ssia
-3
/
Share of votes for V. Putin (local precincts), %
7COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE 2013
min max
Russia total - 63,6% (official data). Center-periphery model works but not everywhere…
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