Climate Impact Team WMO XV Commission for Agricultural Meteorology Belo Horizonte, Brazil 15-21 July 2010 FAO data, tools & methods for climate impact.

Climate Impact Team

WMO XV Commission for Agricultural MeteorologyBelo Horizonte, Brazil 15-21 July 2010

FAO data, tools & methods for climate impact assessment at national level

Michele Bernardi Climate, Energy and Tenure Divisionwww.fao.org/nr/climpag/

Climate Impact Team

To assess weather impact on agricultural production at local, sub-national, national, and regional level

To use weather and climate forecasts in farm-level decision-making

To provide global and regional impact assessments on agriculture based on climate change scenarios

Climate Impact Assessment Tools

Climate Impact Team

www.fao.org/nr/climpag/

Climate Impact Team

Food security information chain

Climate Impact Team

FAO approach in crop yield forecasting

Climate Impact Team

FAO INTRANET USERS

Oracle DBMS(FAOCLIM USER)

MICROSOFTACCESS LINK

MICROSOFTACCESS LINK

MICROSOFTACCESS LINK

FAOCLIM CUSTOM WORK SYSTEM

FAOCLIM CUSTOM WORK SYSTEM

FAOCLIM CUSTOM WORK SYSTEM

FAO INTERNET USERS

Oracle DBMS(FAOCLIM USER)

FAOCLIMBUSINESS

LOGIC

FAO WEB SERVER

INTERNET

BrowserBrowser Browser

FAOCLIM-NET

Climate Impact Team

20010430-999 42 -999 0 6/------- 6009 42 35 0 1 6/-///WW- 6010 43 37 1 1 6/////R/R 6011-999 39 -999 0 6/------- 6012 56 43 23 23 6//MMRR/W 6030 53 42 -999 0 6//FF//// 6043 57 44 -999 0 6//////// 6049 57 45 11 11 6//////// 6052 61 48 0 0 6////W/// 6058

Climate Impact Team

NDVI-GAC 8km

SPOT-4 VEGETATION 1km

MODIS-Terra 250m(Zambia-Malawi)

Climate Impact Team

National crop statistics

Sub-national crop statistics

Climate Impact Team

Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD)

NigeriaNigeria

Climate Impact Team

Malawi

Swaziland

AO_Central

BW_North

BW_South

LS_West

MW_Central

MW_South

MZ_NorthWest

MZ_NorthEast

MZ_Central

MZ_South

NA_NorthEastNA_North

NA_Triangle

SZ_Central

TZ_North

TZ_South

ZA_Central

ZM_North

ZM_Central

ZM_South

ZW_Central

MG_Rice

Southern AfricaMain Maize Cropping Zones

(Rice in Madagascar)

Cropping areas

Crop Calendar

Length of cropping season

Climate Impact Team

Planting opportunities

Field reports

Climate Impact Team

FAO standard methodology

Climate Impact Team

Methods for Climate Changeimpact assessment on agriculture

Climate Impact Team

2. Physical impactson main crops and rangelands - livestock activities

3. Impacts on farming systems

4. Economic impacts

1. Climate Projections

5. Policy adaptation options

CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture: an example from Morocco

Government of Morocco / World Bank / FAO A number of crops, barley, wheat, vegetables, etc Barley yield projection for 2030 vs current yield A need for country to sub-country level studies of CC impact assessment

ftp://ext-ftp.fao.org/SD/Reserved/Agromet/WB_FAO_morocco_CC_yield_impact/report/WB_Morocco_20091007.pdf

Kingdom of Morocco Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and Policy Implications

Climate Impact Team

Current climate from meteorological

stations

Current climate from meteorological

stationsFine-gridded

weather variables

W1

W2

…Wn

Future climate by large grid-cells from scenarios

Future climate by large grid-cells from scenarios

Yield estimation

model

Current yield

Raw future yield

Downscaled and fine-gridded climate

variables

W1

W2

…Wn

+ CO2 + Technology +

Adaptation

Future yield

CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture: an example from Morocco

Climate Impact Team

Downscaling

CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture:an example from Morocco

Climate Impact Team

Rainfall scenario over winter cereals’ cycle in “2027”

(mm/dekad)

-3

-25

-56

2435 320

2741 38

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2030 2050 2080

% d

u Re

ndem

ent a

ctue

l

CC T T + CO2

Rainfed soft wheat

CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture:an example from Morocco

Climate Impact Team

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Barley Durum wheat rainfed Soft wheat rainfed

Percent change in average yield

(2030, A2 scenario)

CC Impact Assessment on Agriculture:an example from Morocco

Climate Impact Team

FAO Climate Change impact assessment toolbox

Climate Impact Team

Climate ScenarioDownscaling

Historical weatherrecords

Downscaled Climate scenarios

Hydrological Modelling

Crop growth Simulation

Economic Modelling

IPCC GCMLow Resolution

Scenarios

Historical dischargerecords

Water availabilityfor irrigation

Historical water usestatistics

Historical yield

records

Yield projections

Current stateof economy

Macroeconomicscenarios

Economic impacts

Climate ScenarioDownscaling

Historical weatherrecords

Downscaled Climate scenarios

Hydrological Modelling

Crop growth Simulation

Economic Modelling

IPCC GCMLow Resolution

Scenarios

Historical dischargerecords

Water availabilityfor irrigation

Historical water usestatistics

Historical yield

records

Yield projections

Current stateof economy

Macroeconomicscenarios

Economic impacts

Climate Change impact assessment toolbox

Climate Impact Team

GCM outputsDaily

Low resolution grid

Downscaled scenarios Daily

High resolution grid

Simulated YieldsGrowing season

High resolution grid

Economic ImpactYearly

Administrative units/country

Calibrated YieldsGrowing season

Administrative units

Water AvailabilityDaily

Watershed

Weather observationsDaily

Stations

Weather observationsDaily

High resolution grid

Simulated YieldsGrowing season

High resolution grid

Yield calibration functionsAdministrative units

Water AvailabilityDaily

Watershed

Yield statsGrowing season

Administrative Units

Projected YieldsGrowing season

Administrative units

Climate Change impact assessment toolbox

Spatialization

Crop Model+Soil +CO2

Downscaling

TechnologicalTrend

Crop Model+Soil +CO2

DetrendingRegression

HydroModel

HydroModel

Current economyAdministrative units/

country

CGEModel

Computable general

equilibrium (CGE) model

Computable general

equilibrium (CGE) model

Climate Impact Team

CLIMATE

T (oC) Es Ta

Phenology Canopy CoverLeaf expansion gs

SenescenceBiomass

WP

YieldHI

CO2

Soil water (& salt) balanceInfiltration

UptakeRedistribution

deeppercolation

capillaryrise

Rooting depth

ETo

Rain

Runoff

• Wheat• Maize• Rice• Sugarbeet• Soybean• Cotton• Potato• Quinoa

• Sunflower• Sugarcane• Tomato• Teff• Bambara

Groundnut

• Forage crops (Alfalfa)

• Millet• Barley• Chickpea• Sorghum

Climate Impact Team

Other tools

Climate Impact Team

Climate Impact Team

PREPDATA Merges suitably a temporal sequence ofimages

ACOMPIX

NGPIX Non-hierarchical Clustering of Pixels

Principal Components Analysis of the tablepixels x time variables

DISPLAY Displays profiles of pixels and classesin graphic form

BOUND (optional) selects the region(s) to which torestrict the clustering procedure

EXTRACTinto a classified image for DISPLAY

SELECT Selects only pixels belonging to someclasses for further processing

Converts any partition computed by NGPIX

ADDAPIXPixel-by-pixel clustering

Climate Impact Team

Climate Impact Team

Infrared meteosat data~ 3 km resolution

GOES Index

Humidity and precipitable water profiles from ECMWF

Daily Rainfall field3 km resolution

ECMWF rainfall data~ 25 km resolution

Daily Rainfall field3 km resolution

Weighted linear combination GTS (gauges)

Rainfall dataWeights determination

Preliminary CombinedRainfall field

3 km resolution

FinalMerged Rainfall field

3 km resolution

MPE (Eumetsat) Infrared and Microwave

Estimation 3km resolution

Daily Rainfall field3 km resolution

ValidatedRainfall data

Interpolation

Local Calibration

FAO Rain Fall Estimate

Climate Impact Team

Africa Sudan

FAO Rain Fall Estimate

Climate Impact Team

National Rainfall Index (NRI)a tool for cross-sectoral impact analyses

Climate Impact Team

Global water stress maps

Climate Impact Team Conversion of absolute magnitude to

impact intensity from to a knowledge base

Climate Impact Team

Climate Impact Team

Climate Impact Team

Capacity building at national level

Climate Impact Team

GLCN Activities

• Data

• Software

• Services Technical assistanceSpatial analysisMappingTrainingResource kit

Data/Software distribution and support services

Climate Impact Team

Ad-hoc training on climate impact tools