Climate Forecasting Unit The RE SILIENCE Climate Service Predicting Renewable Power over Future Monthly to Annual Timescales Melanie Davis, Climate Services.

Climate Forecasting Unit

The RESILIENCE Climate Service

Predicting Renewable Powerover Future Monthly to

Annual Timescales

Melanie Davis, Climate Services [email protected]

Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Verónica Torralba Fernandez, Aida Pintó Biescas, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego

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Climate Forecasting Unit

“The development of any business requires the ability to predict market movements over which it operates.” Ignacio Lainez Aracama, Professor of Wind Energy, EOI and Director of Energy Assessments, EDP Renewables. El País Article: 4th March 2014: Mix energético: las renovables y su predictibilidad

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PR

ES

EN

T

Weather Forecasts

Sub-Seasonal & Seasonal

Intra-Annual & Annual Climate Change

FUTURE

Inter-Annual & Decadal

ClimatePredictions Projections

PR

ES

EN

T

Weather Forecasts

Sub-Seasonal & Seasonal

Intra-Annual & Annual Climate Change

FUTURE

Inter-Annual & Decadal

ClimatePredictions Projections

Pre-constructionKnowledge for planning decisions

Post-constructionKnowledge for O&M decisions

Climate Forecasting Unit

“Energy decision makers now have a new set of climate risk management tools that can strengthen their decision making, but are they ready to use them?” Melanie Davis, EMS 2014 Abstract

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Climate Forecasting Unit

“Energy decision makers now have a new set of climate risk management tools that can strengthen their decision making, but are they ready to use them?” Melanie Davis, EMS 2014 Abstract

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Climate Forecasting Unit

RESILIENCE Climate ServiceImprove predictability of wind power generation

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RESILIENCE Climate Service

Wind Farm Operator,

Owner or Investor

SERVICE: Climate predictions from 1 month to 1 year, for wind

speed, wind power and temperature

Climate Forecasting Unit

RESILIENCE Climate ServiceImprove predictability of wind power generation

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RESILIENCE Climate Service

Wind Farm Operator,

Owner or Investor

SERVICE: Climate predictions from 1 month to 1 year, for wind

speed, wind power and temperature

Climate Forecasting Unit

INDEX: WIND POWER ESTIMATION

Use of OnlyPast Climate

0 Climate Prediction Capacity 1

RESILIENCE service

Target

In Europe In USA / Tropics

Current service

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PROJECTIONS

PREDICTIONS

Climate Forecasting Unit

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Climate Forecasting Unit

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Climate Forecasting Unit

“Energy decision makers now have a new set of climate risk management tools that can strengthen their decision making, but are they ready to use them?” Melanie Davis, EMS 2014 Abstract

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Climate Forecasting Unit

RESILIENCE Applications

Anticipate market changes:

Identify vulnerabilities and risks

Facilitate strategic climate adaptation action

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Climate Forecasting Unit

RESILIENCE Benefits

Anticipate market changes:

Ability to make decisions earlier

Avoid subjective decision making

Take calculated precautionary action

Potential cost saving

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Climate Forecasting Unit

“[Renewable] energy provision may be anticipated, not only in the short and long term as it is today, but also at intermediate horizons, where a huge market niche appears.” Ignacio Lainez Aracama, Professor of Wind Energy, EOI and Director of Energy Assessments, EDP Renewables. El País Article: 4th March 2014: Mix energético: las renovables y su predictibilidad

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the following projects:

CLIM-RUN, www.climrun.eu (GA n° 265192)

EUPORIAS, www.euporias.eu (GA n° 308291)

SPECS, www.specs-fp7.eu (GA n° 308378)

Thank [email protected]