Climate Forecasting Unit Decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region Virginie Guemas (1,2), Javier García-Serrano (1,3), Annarita Mariotti (4), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (1,5), Louis-Philippe Caron (1,6) 1 - Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain 2 - Centre Nacional de Recherches Météorologiques, Groupe d’Etude de l’Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France, UMR3589, Toulouse, France 3 - Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat, UPMC, Paris, France 4 - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, USA 5 - Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain 6 - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,
Climate Forecasting Unit Decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region Virginie Guemas (1,2), Javier García-Serrano (1,3), Annarita Mariotti (4),
Mar 26, 2015
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Climate Forecasting Unit
Decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region
Virginie Guemas (1,2), Javier García-Serrano (1,3), Annarita Mariotti (4), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (1,5), Louis-Philippe Caron (1,6)
1 - Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain2 - Centre Nacional de Recherches Météorologiques, Groupe d’Etude de
l’Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France, UMR3589, Toulouse, France3 - Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat, UPMC, Paris, France4 - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Program Office,
Silver Spring, USA5 - Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain6 - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Climate Forecasting Unit
Mediterranean climate
To which extent will natural variability enhance or reduce externally-forced changes and for how long?
Mediterranean region = one of the most sensitive to climage change in terms of warming and drying (Mariotti et al. 2008) --> Source of predictability
During the 20th century, decadal variability has modulated the climate change signal in the Mediterranean region (Mariotti and Dell’Aquila, 2012)
Climate Forecasting Unit
AMV skill
Skill in predicting the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is enhanced by initialization
From García-Serrano et al. (2013), AMV = North Atlantic mean SST (80W-0, 0-60N) - global mean SST (60S-60N)
Climate Forecasting Unit
AMO-related predictability
Strong connection between summer temperatures and AMO, weaker link in winter
DJF JJA
Observational AMO-temperature correlation patterns
From Mariotti and Dell’Aquila (2012)
Climate Forecasting Unit
Forecast years 6-9Forecast years 2-5
AC
C In
itIn
it –
No
Init
aft
er
de
tren
d
Skill in annual temperature from CMIP5
Climate Forecasting UnitO
bs
erv
ati
on
sN
oIn
it -
Init
Correlation annual temperature-AMV from CMIP5
Forecast years 6-9Forecast years 2-5
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