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Climate

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Worldwide Climate Classifications

Climate is a measure of the average pattern of variation in temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, precipitation, atmospheric particle count and other meteorological variables in a given region over long periods of time. Climate is different than weather, in that weather only describes the short-term conditions of these variables in a given region.

A region's climate is generated by the climate system, which has five components: atmosphere, hydrosphere, cry sphere, land surface, and biosphere.

The climate of a location is affected by its latitude, terrain, and altitude, as well as nearby water bodies and their currents. Climates can be classified according to the average and the typical ranges of different variables, most commonly temperature and precipitation. The most commonly used classification scheme was originally developed by Vladimir Copen. The Thornthwaite system, in use since 1948, incorporates evapotranspiration along with temperature and precipitation information and is used in studying animal species diversity and potential effects of climate changes. The Bergeron and Spatial Synoptic Classification systems focus on the origin of air masses that define the climate of a region.

Paleoclimatology is the study of ancient climates. Since direct observations of climate are not available before the 19th century, pale climates are inferred from proxy variables that include non-biotic evidence such as sediments found in lake beds and ice cores, and biotic evidence such as tree rings and coral. Climate models are mathematical models of past, present and future climates. Climate change may occur over long and short timescales from a variety of factors.

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CAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is a long term shift in weather conditions identified by changes in temperature, precipitation, winds, and other indicators. Climate change can involve both changes in average conditions and changes in variability, including, for example, extreme events. The earth climate is naturally variable on all time scales. However, its long term state and average temperature are regulated by the balance between incoming and outgoing energy, which determines the earths energy balance. Learn more about the earth’s climate system here any factor that causes

a sustained change to the amount of incoming energy or the amount of outgoing energy can lead to climate change.as these factors are external to the climate system, they are referred to as ‘climate forces’, invoking the idea that they force or push the climate towards a new long term state either warmer or cooler depending on the cause of cxhange. Different factors operate on different time scales, and not all of those factors that have been responsible for changes in earth’s climate in the distant past are relevant to contemporary climate change. Factors that cause climate change can be divided into two categories those related to natural processes and those related to human activity. In addition to natural causes of climate change, changes internal to the climate system, such as variations in ocean currents or atmospheric circulation, can also influence the climate for short periods of time. This natural internal climate variability is superimposed on the long term forced climate change.

Natural Causes: The earth’s climate can be affected by natural factors that are external to the climate system, such as changes in volcanic activity, solar output, and the earth’s orbit around the sun. of these, the two factors relevant on timescales of contemporary climate change are changes in volcanic activity and changes in solar radiation.in terms of the earth’s energy balance, these factors primarily influence the amount of incoming energy volcanic eruptions are episodic and have relatively short term effects on climate. Changes in solar irradiance have contributed to climate trends over the past century but since the industrial revolution, the effect of additions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere has been about ten times that of changes in the suns output.

Human Causes: climate change can also be caused by the human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and the conversion of land for forestry and agriculture. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, these human influences on the climate system have increased substantially. In addition to other environmental impacts, these activities change the land surface and emit various substances to the atmosphere. These in turn can influence both the amount of incoming energy and the amount of outgoing energy and can have both warming and cooling effects on climate.

Short lived and long lived climate forces: carbon dioxide is the main cause of human induced climate change. It has been emitted in vast quantities from the burning of fossil fuels and it is a very long lived gas, which means it continues to affect the climate system during its long residence time in the atmosphere. However, fossil fuel combustion, industrial processes, agriculture, and forestry related activities emit other substances that also act as climate forces.

Climate Impacts on Human Health

Key Points

A warmer climate is expected to both increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and death and worsen conditions for air quality.

Climate change will likely increase the frequency and strength of extreme events (such as floods, droughts, and storms) that threaten human safety and health.

Climate changes may allow some diseases to spread more easily.

Weather and climate play a significant role in people's health. Changes in climate affect the average weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Warmer average temperatures will likely lead to hotter days and more frequent and longer heat waves. This could increase the number of heat-related illnesses and deaths. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Warmer temperatures could increase the concentrations of unhealthy air and water pollutants. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases.

The number of 100-degree days per year is projected to increase.Source: USGCRP (2009)

The impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change.

Although the United States has well-developed public health systems (compared with those of many developing countries), climate change will still likely affect many Americans. In addition, the impacts of climate change on public health around the globe could have important consequences for the United States. For example, more frequent and intense storms may require more disaster relief and declines in agriculture may increase food shortages.

Impacts from Heat Waves

Heat waves can lead to heat stroke and dehydration, and are the most common cause of weather-related deaths. Excessive heat is more likely to impact populations in northern latitudes where people are less prepared to cope with excessive temperatures. Young children, older adults, people with medical conditions, and the poor are more vulnerable than others to heat-related illness. The "urban heat island" refers to the fact that the local temperature in urban areas is a few degrees higher than the surrounding area.

Climate change will likely lead to more frequent, more severe, and longer heat waves in the summer (see 100-degree-days figure), as well as less severe cold spells in the winter. A recent assessment of the science suggests that increases in heat-related deaths due to climate change would outweigh decreases in deaths from cold-snaps.

Urban areas are typically warmer than their rural surroundings. Climate change could lead to even warmer temperatures in cities. This would increase the demand for electricity in the summer to run air conditioning, which in turn would increase air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. The impacts of future heat waves could be especially severe in large metropolitan areas. Heat waves are also often accompanied by periods of stagnant air, leading to increases in air pollution and the associated health effects

Climate Change Affects Human Health and Welfare

In 2008, the U.S. Global Change Research Program produced a report that analyzed the impacts of global climate change on human health and welfare. The report finds that:

Many of the expected health effects are likely to fall mostly on the poor, the very old, the very young, the disabled, and the uninsured.

Climate change will likely result in regional differences in U.S. impacts, due not only to a regional pattern of changes in climate but also to regional variations in the distribution of sensitive populations and the ability of communities to adapt to climate changes.

Adaptation should begin now, starting with public health infrastructure. Individuals, communities, and government agencies can take steps to moderate the impacts of climate change on human health. (To learn more, see the Health Adaptation section)

Impacts from Extreme Weather Events

The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase in some locations, as is the severity (wind speeds and rain) of tropical storms. [1] These extreme weather events could cause injuries and, in some cases, death. As with heat waves, the people most at risk include young children, older adults, people with medical conditions, and the poor. Extreme events can also indirectly threaten human health in a number of ways. For example, extreme events can:

Flooded streets in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Source: FEMA (2005)

Reduce the availability of fresh food and water.

Interrupt communication, utility, and health care services.

Contribute to carbon monoxide poisoning from portable electric generators used during and after storms.

Increase stomach and intestinal illness among evacuees.

Contribute to mental health impacts such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

Increases in Ozone

Scientists project that warmer temperatures from climate change will increase the frequency of days with unhealthy levels of ground-level ozone, a harmful air pollutant, and a component in smog.

Ozone chemistry. Source: NASA (2012)

Ground-level ozone can damage lung tissue and can reduce lung function and inflame airways. This can increase respiratory symptoms and aggravate asthma or other lung diseases. It is especially harmful to children, older adults, outdoor workers, and those with asthma and other chronic lung diseases.

Ozone exposure also has been associated with increased susceptibility to respiratory infections, medication use, doctor visits, and emergency department visits and hospital admissions for individuals with lung disease. Some studies suggest that ozone may increase the risk of premature mortality, and possibly even the development of asthma.

Ground-level ozone is formed when certain air pollutants, such as carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen (also called NOX), and volatile organic compounds, are exposed to each other in sunlight. Ground-level ozone is one of the pollutants in smog.

Changes in Fine Particulate Matter

Particulate matter is the term for a category of extremely small particles and liquid droplets suspended in the atmosphere. Fine particles include particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers (about one ten-thousandth of an inch). These particles may be emitted directly or may be formed in the atmosphere from chemical reactions of gases such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and volatile organic compounds.

Inhaling fine particles can lead to a broad range of adverse health effects, including premature mortality, aggravation of cardiovascular and respiratory disease, development of chronic lung disease, exacerbation of asthma, and decreased lung function growth in children.

Sources of fine particle pollution include power plants, gasoline and diesel engines, wood combustion, high-temperature industrial processes such as smelters and steel mills, and forest fires.

Due to the variety of sources and components of fine particulate matter, scientists do not yet know whether climate change will increase or decrease particulate matter concentrations across the Bangladesh. A lot of particulate matter is cleaned from the air by rainfall, so increases in precipitation could have a beneficial effect. At the same time, other climate-related changes in stagnant air episodes, wind patterns, emissions from vegetation and the chemistry of atmospheric pollutants will likely affect particulate matter levels. Climate change will also affect particulates through changes in wildfires, which are expected to become more frequent and intense in a warmer climate.

Changes in Allergens

Climate change may affect allergies and respiratory health. The spring pollen season is already occurring earlier in the United States due to climate change. The length of the season may also have increased. In addition, climate change may facilitate the spread of ragweed, an invasive plant with very allergenic pollen. Tests on ragweed show that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures would increase the amount and timing of ragweed pollen production.

EPA Report on Air Quality and Climate Change

Climate change could increase surface-level ozone concentrations in areas where pollution levels are already high.

Climate change could make U.S. air quality management more difficult. Policy makers should consider the potential impacts of climate change on air quality

when making air quality management decisions.

Impacts from Climate-Sensitive Diseases

Changes in climate may enhance the spread of some diseases. Disease-causing agents, called pathogens, can be transmitted through food, water, and animals such as deer, birds, mice, and insects. Climate change could affect all of these transmitters.

Food-borne Diseases

Higher air temperatures can increase cases of salmonella and other bacteria-related food poisoning because bacteria grow more rapidly in warm environments. These diseases can cause gastrointestinal distress and, in severe cases, death.

Flooding and heavy rainfall can cause overflows from sewage treatment plants into fresh water sources. Overflows could contaminate certain food crops with pathogen-containing feces.

Water-borne Diseases

Heavy rainfall or flooding can increase water-borne parasites such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia that are sometimes found in drinking water. These parasites can cause gastrointestinal distress and in severe cases, death.

Heavy rainfall events cause storm water runoff that may contaminate water bodies used for recreation (such as lakes and beaches) with other bacteria. The most common illness contracted from contamination at beaches is gastroenteritis, an inflammation of the stomach and the intestines that can cause symptoms such as vomiting, headaches, and fever. Other minor illnesses include ear, eye, nose, and throat infections.

Animal-borne Diseases

Mosquitoes favor warm, wet climates and can spread diseases such as West Nile virus.

The geographic range of ticks that carry Lyme disease is limited by temperature. As air temperatures rise, the range of these ticks is likely to continue to expand northward.

Typical symptoms of Lyme disease include fever, headache, fatigue, and a characteristic skin rash.

In 2002, a new strain of West Nile virus, which can cause serious, life-altering disease, emerged in the United States. Higher temperatures are favorable to the survival of this new strain.

The spread of climate-sensitive diseases will depend on both climate and non-climate factors. The United States has public health infrastructure and programs to monitor, manage, and prevent the spread of many diseases. The risks for climate-sensitive diseases can be much higher in poorer countries that have less capacity to prevent and treat illness.

Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture

There are innumerable potential effects climate change could have on agriculture. It could affect crop growth and quality, livestock health, and pests.

Agriculture feeds and clothes the world. Although the long-term effects of climate change are still largely unknown, scientists can observe short-term effects of climate change on crops and animals. In addition, scientists can prognosticate about the changes that are likely to occur in agriculture if global climate change causes changes in temperatures and rainfall.

Crops

Data have shown that levels of atmospheric CO2 are increasing. Research is being conducted to determine what types of plant responses can be expected from these changes (see section on CO2 increase below). Others worry that climate change is going to permanently alter weather patterns, temperatures, and rainfall. NOAA data show that for much of the Southeast, annual average rainfall has been relatively constant or slowly increasing; air temperatures are slightly lower than 100 years ago. However, the frequency of rainfall events greater than 2 inches is increasing, leading to longer dry periods between rain events. Crop yields are likely affected by these changes to some extent already, but it is not clear if future changes will be catastrophic or not. Plants are surprisingly resilient, and can withstand a variety of conditions while still being productive. In addition, other factors such as location, soil fertility, crop varieties, and management practices will all affect future yields. Below we list some of the effects we could expect for agriculture due to various aspects of climate change.

Temperature Increase

Many scientists project that the average temperatures throughout the US will rise in the next few decades. Much of this warming could occur at night, but the models are not clear on this. If temperatures increase, cooler areas of the country might be more habitable for some of the main food crops grown in the US – thus, expanding the areas in which certain crops could be grown or moving their ranges north. For example, less frequent freezes could allow citrus to move north from its current range in Florida to other areas of the Southeast. In areas where crops are being grown in their warmest productive temperature ranges already, heat stress or increased disease could reduce yields. However, research on new crop varieties and technological advances could improve yields in spite of reductions due to temperature increases. A report from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is optimistic that general crop yields for the next century could increase in a range from 5-20% during the first few decades of the 21st century,

Figure A: Botrytic Bunch Rotting in Grapes

and they expect the crop yield to remain somewhat steady (but positive) through the rest of the century. If climate change reduces the global amount of arable land, however, total yields could still decrease.

Carbon Dioxide Increase

Scientists are in agreement that the levels of atmospheric CO2 (carbon dioxide) have increased in recent years. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, they were measured at 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv); currently the levels are around 380 ppmv. These levels have been steadily increasing by 1.9 ppm yearly since the year 2000, largely as a result of fossil fuel burning. Carbon dioxide is critical to photosynthesis (and thus plant growth). Scientists agree that even small increases in carbon dioxide result in more plant growth. It is likely that higher levels of carbon dioxide will result in higher harvestable crop yields. However, this depends critically on the availability of sufficient water and nutrients necessary for plant growth. Some scientists believe that one drawback to this increased productivity will be crops with lower nutrient and protein levels. If true, this could have a significant, widespread impact on long-term human health if additional fertilizers were not incorporated into crop production.

Weeds, Pests and Disease

While crops are expected to respond to increased CO2 with strong vegetative growth, other plants are also thought to respond in a similar fashion. Weeds have become more prolific and are expected to invade new habitats as global warming increases. For example, researchers at Duke University found that poison ivy is actually becoming more toxic as levels of atmospheric

carbon dioxide increase. Studies have also shown that herbicides become less effective in a higher carbon dioxide environment, meaning that higher rates of herbicides will be necessary to achieve the same levels of control. Insect pests, some of which carry plant diseases, could become more prolific and widespread as temperatures increase. If pests live longer and reproduce more each year, it is possible that they could spread crop diseases into new production areas. It is also possible that increases in temperature, moisture and carbon dioxide could result in higher populations of destructive pests.

Figure B: Corn Earworm Larvae Damaging Corn Kernels

Irrigation and Rainfall

Changes in climate may also impact the water availability and water needs for agriculture. If temperature increases and more sporadic rainfall events result from global warming, it is possible that irrigation needs could increase in the future. For example, rainfall in parts of the southeastern US states has increased about 10% over the past century. However, part of this increase may be due to changes in the frequency of tropical storms. Tropical storms usually result in rainfall events greater than 2 inches in a day which occur at irregular intervals; these are less useful in an agricultural sense than are rainfall events that occur more frequently, even with lower accumulations. Plants growing in a high carbon dioxide environment may have lower water needs. In addition, widespread increased humidity will slow transpiration, further reducing the need for water. However, these benefits will probably be overshadowed by the lack of available water due to increased droughts and heat waves. The crops will transpire more heavily than when under “normal” growing conditions, and would likely need more water to adjust to these climactic changes. In anticipation of these changes, plant breeders are currently working to develop new varieties of crops that are considered to be drought tolerant, and more adaptable to varying levels of temperature and moisture.

Livestock

While crops could be impacted by climate change, it is likely that farm animals would be even more susceptible to changes in the climate.

Temperature Increases

It is expected that increased air temperatures will cause more stress on livestock. Both humans and livestock are warm-blooded animals, so both are affected by increased heat and humidity. During stifling heat, livestock reproduction declines as well as their appetite. Decreased appetite will lengthen the time needed for the livestock to reach their target weight (most animals only eat about half of normal quantities when they are heat-stressed). Stress can also increase the incidence of sickness, decrease rates of reproduction, and increase fighting among animals in confinement. In some areas, night-time temperatures are even more above average than daytime temperatures during heat-waves, which has resulted in increased mortality rates. Despite the

Figure CImage from Bridget Lassiter

warmer winter temperatures, global warming could have a negative overall impact upon livestock.

Feed Quality

As indicated above, increased carbon dioxide may result in feed and forage that is less nutritious even if there is more of it. It is likely that growers would be forced to use feed additives in order to see the expected growth gains in livestock, and to avoid illnesses. This increased cost to the grower would result in increased food costs to the consumer. Availability could also decrease if there is not enough water and nutrients in stressed soils to keep up with plant growth.

Disease

Insect parasites and diseases could also become more prolific as global warming progresses. New diseases may also emerge in the Southeast that were once considered to inhabit only tropical areas. It is expected that in cases of increased heat stress and humidity, most livestock will not be able to fight these diseases without the use of costly medicines.

What can we do about climate change?

From a science education perspective, one major thing that can be done about climate change to support education efforts that help individuals and societies make informed decisions about climate change. Climate science must be integrated as practical knowledge into society so that understanding the complex physical and biological interconnections are relevant to decision making in social, economic, political, cultural, and educational system. While information alone is not enough to prepare society for the immediate and long term challenges of human influences on climate, without a scientifically informed understanding of the causes and effects 0f climate change, it will be difficult or impossible to reduce vulnerabilities or enhance the resilience of communities and ecosystem affected by climate change.

The two most important strategies for addressing climate change are mitigation and adaptation. The two strategies are related and overlap to a degree, but the basic distinction is that mitigation means limiting the amount of climate change which occurs, primarily by reducing greenhouse gas concentrations, while adaptation means changing the way we as a society we live in response to the changing climate.

Mitigation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions entails the reduction and conversation of oil, gas, and coal, the fossil fuels that are used in transportation, heating and cooling, agriculture and electricity generation. Replacing carbon intensive fuels with renewable and alternative energy sources is key to “decarbonizing” the current energy infrastructure, which will require transforming the global economy that is currently fueled primarily by carbon based energy sources.in order for mitigation to be successful, it is necessary to understand how humans currently consume energy and how that impacts the climate, and then make appropriate decisions to minimize that impact. There are already a number of energy sources which produce electricity

at costs comparable to coal and natural gas, and improving the efficiency and availability of those technologies is a major area of research. Many private homeowners and schools generate their electricity with solar panels, showing students and their neighbors that these technologies are available and affordable. Simple measures to increase household energy efficiency, to drive less by biking carpooling and riding public transit, and to ship our food shorter distance all play important roles in averting future climate change.

Adapting to climate change is also crucial since, no matter how successful mitigation efforts are; the changes already occurring are predicted to increase in the years and decades to come, requiring serious planning to minimize risks, vulnerabilities, and impacts. Adaptation strategies that communities are already implementing include.

Building sea wall and moving away from vulnerable coasts in order to avoid sea level rise and storm surges.

Diversifying crops and using drip irrigation for agriculture.

Building new public works such as sewers, bridges and aqueducts to handle changes in rainfall and flooding.

Training public health professionals for increased health impacts and emerging diseases.

Developing wildlife conversation plans and new migration corridors to protect endanger species.

Designing buildings to conserve and even generate energy.

Demonstrating strategies and life styles for increased sustainability and resilience…...

Because there is a lag between increased greenhouse gas emission and increased warming, even if all greenhouse gas emission stopped today, it would take decades before temperature, rainfall, and other effects of human caused climate change of human caused climate change would begin to abate.so adaption and mitigation will inevitably proceed in parallel. Climate change will affect every part of society. The response to climate change through mitigation and adaptation has to involve individual and families at home, students and educators in schools, leaders and workers in organization, and local, state, national and international governmental bodies. The actions we take and decisions we make can create opportunities or limit the options for the next generation. Ideally, by reducing the effects and adapting to climate change, the present generation will improve its own condition, with benefits such as higher quality of life and public health, while helping future generations through its foresight and planning.