Climate Change, Climate Variability & Plans to enhance NOAA climate services. Robert Webb Chief, Climate Analysis Branch NOAA OAR Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, Colorado. Climate Change Workshop 2009 USACE Infrastructure Conference July 22, 2009. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Temperatures will continue to rise − how much depends on the amount of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere
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Temperature rise
Sea-level rise
Earlier snowmelt
Changes in river flows
Rapidly retreating glaciers
Thawing permafrost
Longer growing season
Increase in heavy downpours
Longer ice-free season in the ocean,
on lakes, and on rivers
Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow
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Number of Days Over 100ºF
Increases in very high temperatures will have wide-ranging effects.
Recent Past, 1961-1979
Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-99
Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-99
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Projected Change in Precipitation Intensity(2080-2099)
Observed Increases in Very Heavy Precipitation
(1958 to 2007)
Hydroclimatic changes are underway in the U.S. and are expected to increase
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Projected Change in Precipitation by 2080-2099
Water resource changes are underway and will be affected by changing precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures
Confidence in precipitation projections lower than for temperature
Good confidence in overall pattern (wet north vs dry south)
Less confidence in exact location of transition
Winter
Summer
Spring
Fall
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Less snow, more rain
Wet areas get wetter – floods
Dry areas get drier – drought
Declines in mountain snowpack
Increased competition for water
Climate change will stress water resources
Projected Changes in Annual Runoff Pattern
In snowmelt-dominated streams, runoff peak will shift
to earlier in the spring and late summer flows will be lower.
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Coastal areas are increasingly at risk from sea-level rise and storm surge
Projected Sea-Level Rise Areas in Florida under water with 3 foot sea level rise
Gulf Coast Roads at Risk from Sea-Level Rise
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Land Lost During 2005 Hurricanes
Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge
Chandeleur Islands, east of New Orleans, before and after the 2005 hurricanes
217 square miles, 85% of the island’s land mass was lost
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Response Strategies
“Mitigation” – reducing the amount of climate change, for example, by reducing heat-trapping emissions or increasing their removal from the atmosphere
“Adaptation” – improving our ability to cope with or avoid harmful impacts or taking advantage of newly favorable conditions
Both will be needed.
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Elevate roads, buildings, and facilities
Improve flood control structure design
Build hard structures such as levees and dikes (although this can actually increase future risks by destroying wetlands and also by creating a false sense of security that causes more development in vulnerable areas)
Enhance wetlands
Accommodate inland movement
through planned retreat
Require setbacks for construction
Improve evacuation planning
Adaptation Example
Responding to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge
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Completion of perimeter road on US-affiliated island altered in response to projected climate change
Road placed higher to account for sea-level rise
Improved drainage system installed to handle heavier rainfall
Accumulated costs, including capital costs and repairs and maintenance show the alterations to be cost effective
Adaptation ExampleClimate-Proofing a Road
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Water
Sustainable Food
CoastalInundatio
n
Security And Many Others
Air Quality
Ocean Life & Ecosystems
Weather (Extreme Events)
Impacts Are Why Climate Matters
It’s the impacts stupid
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…that will serve and provide authoritative climate information and services to assist the nation’s citizens in making climate-related decisions that enhance their lives and livelihoods.
Thus, our nation needs a climate service
“Decision makers at all levels of government and in the private sector need reliable and timely information to understand the possible impacts and corresponding vulnerabilities that are posed by climate change so that they can plan and respond accordingly.” – Western Governor Association statement to the House Committee on Science and Technology, May 3, 2007
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Observations/Monitoring
The National Climate Service Partnership - no single agency can address the climate challenge
on its own
National Climate Service
Research, Modeling & Assessments
Resource Risk Management Adaptation & Mitigation
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National Climate ServiceCongressional Interest
• HR 2454 – Sec. 452/Interagency– OSTP-led process; initiate within 30 days– Plan in two years; establish an NCS in three years
• HR 2454—Sec. 452/NOAA– Establish Climate Service Office– Network of regional and local partnerships– Utilize assets of all NOAA programs & partners
• Senate– Six Committees to act by end of Sept. 09– Commerce Committee hearing late July
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NOAA's contribution: Building on a strong foundation
Unique breadth of mandates and responsibilities for managing coastal and marine ecosystems, and
resources and communities
A long history of building sustained partnerships with other federal agencies, the private sector, all levels of government, NGOs and the public
A commitment to and demonstrated leadership in the science underpinning a service including: observing; data management and delivery; problem focused and fundamental climate research; climate modeling, predictions and projections; and local, regional, national and international assessments
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Some Important AttributesProvide balanced, credible,
cutting edge scientific and technical information
Engage a diversity of users in meaningful ways to ensure their needs are being met
Link human-caused climate change and changes in natural variability to meet user needs
Provide and contribute to science-based products and services to minimize climate-related risks
Strengthen observations, standards, and data stewardship
Ensure timely assessments
Improve regional and local projections of climate change
Inform policy options, decisions and management options of others
Foster climate literacy and workforce development
Provide predictions and projections of climate at scales relevant to decision support
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• Solution and problem focused:– Sea level – Precipitation patterns and associated effects
on freshwater, nutrient, and sediment flow– Ocean temperature – Circulation patterns– Frequency, track and intensity of storms
– Atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification
Climate Service Case Study:Coastal Regions
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• Problem and People focused:– Drought– Floods– Changes in snowpack (quantity and timing)– River stream flow– Fire outlooks– Physical Infrastructure
Next steps…An interactive process that engages federal agencies, states, partner institutions and individuals from across the spectrum of climate research, service provision, users, partners and stakeholders.
A critical issue that must be addressed in these processes is the best arrangement for federal agencies to work in partnership to maximize delivery of climate services to the nation.
NOAA looks forward to engaging in these dialogues.