Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning to in Prairie Forests

smart science solutions™

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning to in Prairie Forests

Mark Johnston and Elaine QualtiereSaskatchewan Research Council

March 15 2011


General areas of vulnerability• Changes in species distributions

• Fire activity

• area burned

• frequency and intensity

• Insect outbreaks

• endemic species (e.g. SBW, FTC)

• exotics (e.g. EAB, MPB)

• Productivity

• Operations

• season of frozen ground


CFS Plant Hardiness Databasehttp://planthardiness.gc.ca/ph_futurehabitat.pl?lang=en

Based on Climatic Suitability

Jack Pine: currently suitable climate(dots indicate observed occurrence)

Jack Pine: suitability 2050s HADCM3

http://planthardiness.gc.ca/ph_futurehabitat.pl?lang=en


Area Burned for Western Canada (BC to MB)Source: Balshi et al., Global Change Biology 15: 578–600, 2009

By 2050: 2X increase

By 2100: 3-5X increase

Now


Number of Fires

Lightning-caused 2030 Lightning-caused 2090

Source: Wotton et al. 2010 International Journal of Wildland Fire 19: 253–271

- Climate data used to calculate FWI

- Statistical relationship between FWI and fire activity

- Future data from CGCM1


HFI map for Duck Mountains, prepared for LP’s Forest Management Plan, 2006

• Analysis using CFS Spatial Fire Management System (new version soon!)

• Climate data from CRCM

• Fuel types re-classified from LP forest inventory

• Pink and red indicate fuel types where fire will be difficult to suppress

• Did similar analysis for Mistik FMA in NW SK


Suppression difficult

Suppression impossible


• Endemic species outbreaks likely to increase but details are poorly understood

• Exotics also likely to increase but impacts greater because no resistance

• New MPB scenarios seem to be leaning toward poor winter survival, the apocalypse may be avoided!

Insects


Adaptive Seasonality Cold Survival

MPB“…probability of range expansion… is low to moderate”

Bentz et al., BioScience 2010, 60:602-612

smart science solutions™Productivity: Fort a la Corne Forest, SK


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

TA 2050 TA 2050D JP 2050 JP2 2050D WS 2050 WS 2050D

Rel

ativ

e S

tem

NP

PProductivity: Mistik FMA, NW SK

Ecosystem Model: PnETClimate Model: CRCM V 3.6D = 2001-2002 drought scenario


Swift Current

Estevan


Source: Lempriere et al., The Importance of Forest Sector Adaptation to Climate Change, CFS Information Report NOR-X-416, 2008

Values of Hogg’s Climate Moisture Index based on CGCM2-A2

smart science solutions™From Hogg & Bernier 2005. The Forestry Chronicle 81: 675-682

Projected increase in forested areas affected by drought stress under climate change


Shorter operating season on frozen ground

What the…?


#$%*&@!


CRCM, Duck Mountains


Mistik FMAData from CRCM V 3.6


• Need to examine organization’s adaptive capacity:

– Awareness – Technology availability– Resources– Institutions– Human capital– Social capital– Risk management– Information management

Human Dimension


• Policy assessment – does current policy value

– Innovation

– Flexibility

– Looking forward

• Does policy welcome new thinking from outside, e.g. industry, producers?

• Can policy be changed easily when required?

Human Dimension


• Based on expert opinion and what has worked in the past

• Screen according to future scenarios

• Prioritize using e.g. CCFM Criteria and Indicators or other benchmarks for SFM

Adaptation Options


LANDIS-II: Forest Landscape Simulator

FORESTED LANDSCAPE

WINDTHROW

FIRE

HARVESTING

INSECTS / DISEASE

SPATIALLY INTERACTIVE PROCESSES

DISPERSALTREE / SHRUB

ESTABLISHMENT

MORTALITY

NON-SPATIAL COMMUNITYPROCESSES

GROWTH


LANDIS-II Philosophy: Homogeneity

LANDIS assumes homogeneity at multiple scales:

Sites = single cells

Ecoregions = 1 or more cells, typically defined by climate and soils. Need not be contiguous.

LandscapeSites

Ecoregions


Soil Carbon & Nitrogen

WindHarvest

Fire

Cohort Biomass

Insects

Spatially Interactive Landscape

LANDIS-II Philosophy: Spatially Dynamic

Disturbances overlap in space

and time.


LANDIS-IISuccession Extensions

Global Circulation

Model LANDIS-IIForest

Successionand Disturbance

ANPPGrowth Model

PEST

Regen-erationModel

User Choice

We will use PnET

Probability of Establishment


Case Studies• Island Forests in SK

– Focus on interacting sources of vulnerability on sensitive landscapes

– Fire, insects, drought, productivity

• Alberta Case Study

– Lit review to support provincial vulnerability assessment

– Possibility of more work next year

• Manitoba Case Study

– Tree ring analysis to link tree growth and climate variables (with University of Winnipeg)

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning to in Prairie Forests

Documents

smart science solutions

climate data

corne forest

projected increase

cfs spatial

crcm fuel types reclassified

lps forest management

lp forest inventory