Climate Change & Forests; Impacts & vulnerability Prof. Ravindranath Indian Institute of Science Bangalore.

Climate Change & Forests; Impacts & vulnerability

Prof. RavindranathIndian Institute of Science

Bangalore

Outline

1. Critical issues in the context of climate change and forests

2. Status of forests in India3. Impacts of climate change on forest

ecosystems4. Greening India Mission and long term

monitoring – India’s response to climate change

Forests and climate change1. Deforestation and land use change contribute to

CO2 emissions – IPCC; 20% of CO2 emissions

2. Forests provide a large potential to mitigate climate change

- IPCC; 15 – 20% of CO2 emissions

3. Forests will be impacted by climate change and are highly vulnerable to climate impacts

- Need for adaptation to enable forests to cope with climate change

-------------------------------------------------------------Forest sector is critical in addressing climate change

Forest sector is very contentious in global negotiations

Figure 1: Forest cover map of India of 2007 (FSI, 2009)

Trends in area under forest over the period 1987 to 2009

(according to FSI reports)

Cumulative area afforested during 1951 to 2005

Status of Forests

• India has reasonably succeeded in conserving forests – though degradation continues

• India has effective forest conservation acts• India is also implementing one of the largest

afforestation programmes• India has launched a large Greening India

Mission- aimed at mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Impacts of Climate Change – IPCC findings• Populations of threatened species are expected to

become extinct – 1/3 to 2/3rd of known biodiversity at risk of extinction

• Species composition and dominance will be altered, resulting in ecosystem changes

• Shifts in forest types boundary– Altitude & Latitude

• Forest die-back / mortality– Climate change faster than capacity to migrate

• Increase and later decrease in biomass productivity• Tipping point; Amazon could be turned to

savannah

Projected Climate Change for India

a) Pre monsoon (March–June) Tmax for the baseline period (1961–1990). b) projected future (2071–2100 minus 1961–1990 mean) change. c) Projected future change in number of rainy days (days with rainfall [2.5

mm) during monsoon season and d) the projected change in the intensity (mm/day) of rainfall on a rainy day

Projection of Impact of Climate Change on Forests

Global Vegetation Model:

1. BIOME4: Equilibrium model2. IBIS (Integrated Biosphere Simulator):

dynamic global Vegetation Model3. Working currently on LPJ & CLM

modelsClimate Model: GCM and RCM data from • Hadley HadRM3 data (50x50 km2)• In future other GCMs will be used

1.Tropical wet evergreen forests,2.Tropical semi evergreen forests, 3.Tropical moist deciduous forest, 4.Tropical dry deciduous forest, 5.Tropical thorny/scrub forests, 6.Tropical dry evergreen forest,7.Littoral and swampy forest, 8.Subtropical broad -leaved hill forests, 9.Subtropical pine forests, 10.Sub-tropical dry evergreen forests, 11.Montane wet temperate forests, 12.Himalayan wet/ moist temperate forests, 13.Himalayan dry temperate forests, 14.Sub-alpine forests, 15.Moist alpine, 16.Dry alpine

1: tropical evergreen forest / woodland, 2: tropical deciduous forest / woodland, 3. temperate evergreen broadleaf forest / woodland, 4: temperate evergreen conifer forest / woodland, 5: temperate deciduous forest / woodland, 6: boreal evergreen forest / woodland, 7: boreal deciduous forest / woodland, 8: mixed forest / woodland, 9: savanna, 10: grassland / steppe, 11: dense shrubland, 12: open shrubland, 13: tundra, 14: desert, 15. polar desert / rock / ice

VALIDATION: Model simulated current vegetation distribution (right) compared with observed vegetation

distribution - 70% of grids correctly simulated

Forest type distribution and extent simulated by IBIS for the baseline case and A1B (2035 and 2085) scenarios. (VT – refers to Vegetation Types. The numbers refer to the following vegetation types 1: tropical evergreen forest / woodland, 2: tropical deciduous forest / woodland, 3. temperate evergreen broadleaf forest / woodland, 4: temperate evergreen conifer forest / woodland, 5: temperate deciduous forest / woodland, 6: boreal evergreen forest / woodland, 7: boreal deciduous forest / woodland, 8: mixed forest / woodland, 9: savanna, 10: grassland/ steppe, 11: dense shrubland, 12: open shrubland, 13: tundra, 14: desert, 15. polar desert / rock / ice)

NPP distribution (kgC/m2/year) simulated by IBIS for baseline and A1B scenarios

Vulnerable grids (marked red) in the A1B scenario – for all of India - 2035 (2035 and 2085)

Red indicates that a change in vegetation is projected at that grid in the time-period of 2035 & 2085 - under A1B scenarioGreen indicates that no change in vegetation is projected by that period.

PROJECTED IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

FORESTED GRIDS IN INDIA A2 SCENARIO

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39% of the forest grids likely change under A2 scenario by 2085 causing loss of C stock and biodiversity

1 = stable grids

2=forest grids undergoing change

StateNumber of FSI

grids in the state% projected to change by 2035

% projected to change by 2085

Rajasthan 802 61.22 78.18

Jammu & Kashmir 910 57.03 88.35

Chhattisgarh 3292 48.00 75.85

Himachal Pradesh 838 47.49 65.39

Andhra Pradesh 2288 39.20 51.57

Karnataka 1947 38.37 62.20

Tamil Nadu 776 27.45 47.04

Madhya Pradesh 4432 22.59 48.17

Maharashtra 2197 21.21 45.33

Uttaranchal 1203 19.04 31.92

Arunachal Pradesh 2666 12.27 6.90

Orissa 2564 9.71 13.53

Meghalaya 829 7.96 0.00

Assam 1261 5.23 1.11

Jharkhand 1148 0.00 24.30

Percentage of FSI grids projected to undergo change, aggregated by the major forested states – A1B Scenario

Forest type (by Champion and Seth, 1968)

Number of FSI grids in

type% projected to change by 2035

% projected to change by

2085

Tropical dry evergreen forest 37 70.27 72.97

Subtropical dry evergreen forest 133 54.14 67.67

Himalayan dry temperate forest 106 52.83 76.42

Himalayan moist temperate forest 1144 52.62 88.02

Subalpine and alpine forest 400 49.75 77.50

Tropical thorn forest 1278 41.39 75.12

Tropical semi evergreen forest 1239 30.67 50.36

Littoral and swamp forest 7 28.57 28.57

Tropical dry deciduous forest 9663 25.62 46.73

Tropical moist deciduous forest 11266 22.63 37.88

Subtropical pine forest 1662 20.64 17.39Subtropical broad leaved hill forest 192 15.10 15.10

Tropical wet evergreen forest 2862 14.61 14.68

Montane wet temperate forest 940 5.64 0.32

Percentage of FSI grids projected to undergo change, aggregated by Champion and Seth forest types – A!B

Vulnerability Index and Profile Development

Vulnerability Assessment - Indicators

1.Climate change impact Indicators2.Bio-physical Indicators3.Socio-economic Indicators

Criteria & Indicators for Mitigation projects• Disturbance index: An indication of the human disturbance

for a particular forest patch. More the disturbance index, higher the forest vulnerability.

• Fragmentation status: An indication of how fragmented the forest patch is. More the fragmentation status, higher the forest vulnerability.

• Biological richness: Indicates the species diversity of the forest patch, a measure of the number of species of flora and fauna, per unit area. Higher the biological richness, lower the forest vulnerability

• Impact of climate change on carbon sinks of forests: For estimating climate change impacts, IBIS, which is a dynamic global vegetation model, was used.

Why Adaptation? When uncertainty in Impact Assessment

• Impacts will be irreversible; e.g., – loss of biodiversity

• Inertia in response to changing climate• Long gestation period in developing &

implementation of adaptation practices• Waiting for full knowledge – high risk• Large ecological, economic and social implications

Focus on “win – win” adaptation options

Greening India Mission (GIM)

The Mission aims at addressing climate change by

1. Enhancing carbon sinks in sustainably managed forests and other ecosystems

2. Adaptation of vulnerable species / ecosystems to changing climate

3. Enabling adaptation of forest-dependant communities.

Key Issues in the context of Climate Change and Forests

• Tropical deforestation continues at nearly 13 Mha annually (2000-2010 – FAO)

• CO2 emissions are at 1.6 GtC with high uncertainty• Cancun Agreement has included – REDD+; Need for operation –

complexity of measurement, reporting, verification, financing, payment, role for local communities..

• CDM in forestry has failed due to methodological complexities and risks of carbon loss

• Climate change is projected to impact forests• Climate change + Degradation + poor management of forests;

increases vulnerability• Need for forest and biodiversity conservation & also meet the

food needs of poor – land for food is a driver of deforestation

Conclusions1. India has reasonably succeeded in reducing

deforestation, but degradation continues2. There are biodiversity rich hot spots and there is

a large dependence of communities on forest biodiversity

3. Climate change even in the short and medium term is likely to adversely impact forest ecosystems

4. Thus India has initiated a large Greening Indian Mission – to promote Mitigation and Adaptation

Limitations of IBIS model• IBIS is known to have limitations in characterizing nitrogen

dynamics (Cramer et al. 2001). • It is known to over-simulate grasslands (Bonan et al. 2003) • IBIS tends to simulate a fairly strong CO2 fertilization effect

(Cramer et al. 2001; McGuire et al. 2001). • IBIS model in its current form does not include a dynamic fire

module (Foley et al. 1996). • It does not account for changes in pest attack profile THUS

overestimation of future NPP and SOC.• There is uncertainty in climate projections, particularly in

precipitation at down-scaled regional levels. Land-use change and other anthropogenic influences are not factored in this study. Afforestation and regeneration (e.g. on abandoned croplands or wastelands) are also not considered.