Climate Change: Real? Man-Made? A Presentation to PotomacGOP by Charley Martin July 14, 2014

Climate Change:Climate Change:Real?Real?

Man-Made?Man-Made?

A Presentation to PotomacGOPA Presentation to PotomacGOPby Charley Martinby Charley Martin

July 14, 2014July 14, 2014

Climate Defined:Climate Defined:

The meteorological conditions, including The meteorological conditions, including temperature, precipitation, and wind, that temperature, precipitation, and wind, that characteristically prevail in a particular region. characteristically prevail in a particular region. (American Heritage Dictionary)(American Heritage Dictionary)

The composite or generally prevailing weather The composite or generally prevailing weather conditions of a region, as temperature, air conditions of a region, as temperature, air pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, cloudiness, and winds, throughout the year, averaged over a series of years. (Dictionary.com)averaged over a series of years. (Dictionary.com)

Why Is the Global Why Is the Global Warming Discussion Warming Discussion

Important?Important?

Because It’s The Most Important Because It’s The Most Important Scientific Issue of the DayScientific Issue of the Day

Governments have already spent billions of dollars, and Governments have already spent billions of dollars, and are poised to spend trillions of dollars to force a shift in are poised to spend trillions of dollars to force a shift in the world’s energy economy away from hydrocarbon the world’s energy economy away from hydrocarbon fuelsfuels

However, the processes that drive the climate are However, the processes that drive the climate are extremely complexextremely complex

The scientific community finds itself The scientific community finds itself sharply divided into two camps sharply divided into two camps

What Both Camps Agree OnWhat Both Camps Agree On

That the Earth is in a slight warming trend That the Earth is in a slight warming trend – about 1 degree F in the last 100 years– about 1 degree F in the last 100 years

That the industrial activity of mankind – the That the industrial activity of mankind – the very activity that brings about very activity that brings about advancements in the quality of life – is advancements in the quality of life – is responsible for an increase in the levels of responsible for an increase in the levels of COCO22 in our atmosphere in the last 100 in our atmosphere in the last 100

years from ~300 ppm to ~390 ppmyears from ~300 ppm to ~390 ppm

Where the Two Camps Where the Two Camps DisagreeDisagree

The “Eureka, I have found it!” camp The “Eureka, I have found it!” camp fervently believes that the increase in fervently believes that the increase in anthropogenic (man-made) COanthropogenic (man-made) CO22 levels are levels are

causing the warming. causing the warming. – This camp generally believes that This camp generally believes that

extraordinary government action is necessary extraordinary government action is necessary to avert a world-wide disaster.to avert a world-wide disaster.

– This camp hangs it hat on the “hockey stick” This camp hangs it hat on the “hockey stick” graph of Michael Mann:graph of Michael Mann:

The Mann “Hockey Stick Graph”The Mann “Hockey Stick Graph”

And The And The ApparentApparent Relation Between Relation Between Anthropogenic COAnthropogenic CO22 and Warming and Warming

The “Not So Fast!” CampThe “Not So Fast!” Camp

““It’s a whole lot more complicated than It’s a whole lot more complicated than one or two graphs.”one or two graphs.”The climate is influenced by many The climate is influenced by many variables, only one of which is the COvariables, only one of which is the CO22 concentration in the atmosphere, which concentration in the atmosphere, which may actually not be very important at all.may actually not be very important at all.Let’s take our time to understand before Let’s take our time to understand before we do something rash in the name of we do something rash in the name of “saving the planet.”“saving the planet.”

Does the Sun Figure Into Does the Sun Figure Into Equation?Equation?

The global warming alarmists refuse to The global warming alarmists refuse to consider the possibility that any other consider the possibility that any other factor might be responsible for the current factor might be responsible for the current warming trend.warming trend.

However, fluctuations in solar irradiance However, fluctuations in solar irradiance and sunspot frequency actually provide a and sunspot frequency actually provide a better graphical fit to the observed better graphical fit to the observed temperature variations.temperature variations.

Global Temperature vs Solar Global Temperature vs Solar IrradianceIrradiance

Sea Surface Temperature vs Sea Surface Temperature vs Annual Sunspot NumberAnnual Sunspot Number

What is COWhat is CO22

Carbon dioxide is a colorless, odorless, chemically stable Carbon dioxide is a colorless, odorless, chemically stable gas that has always been a constituent part of our gas that has always been a constituent part of our atmosphere. It is atmosphere. It is not a pollutantnot a pollutant. (The term “carbon . (The term “carbon pollution” has become popular with the “warmists”.)pollution” has become popular with the “warmists”.)

COCO22 does not cause asthma or any other breathing does not cause asthma or any other breathing problems, contrary to “clean air” commercials you may see problems, contrary to “clean air” commercials you may see on TV, specifically as sponsored by the American Lung on TV, specifically as sponsored by the American Lung Association.Association.

COCO22 makes up about 390 parts per million (ppm) of our makes up about 390 parts per million (ppm) of our atmosphere today, or about 0.039 %. atmosphere today, or about 0.039 %.

COCO22 is is absolutely essentialabsolutely essential to all plant life, and hence to all to all plant life, and hence to all animal life. We would do well to think of COanimal life. We would do well to think of CO22 as as plant food, plant food, not “carbon pollution”.not “carbon pollution”.

The Carbon CycleThe Carbon Cycle(Units are gigatons)(Units are gigatons)

Global Heat BalanceGlobal Heat Balance

Solar Spectrum Coming InSolar Spectrum Coming InSolar Blackbody Spectrum (5500C) at Earth's Surface

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Earth’s Spectrum Radiating Back Earth’s Spectrum Radiating Back into the Universeinto the Universe

Earth Blackbody Radiation Spectrum at 13C

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The Two Spectra on Same The Two Spectra on Same GraphGraph

Blackbody Spectrum of Sun at 5500C and Earth at 13C

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GH Gas Absorption of Earth’s GH Gas Absorption of Earth’s Blackbody SpectrumBlackbody Spectrum

COCO22 Is Increasing, but… Is Increasing, but…

The Temperature Data Set Is The Temperature Data Set Is Getting Smaller!Getting Smaller!

Can We Even Detect Can We Even Detect “Climate Change”“Climate Change”In The Near TermIn The Near Term

(The Last 100 years)?(The Last 100 years)?

Global Mean Temperature in the Age of Global Mean Temperature in the Age of Modern ThermometersModern Thermometers

What’s Happening to the Oceans?What’s Happening to the Oceans?

What’s Happening with Hurricanes?What’s Happening with Hurricanes?

What’s Happening with Tornadoes?What’s Happening with Tornadoes?

““EF1 Equivalent” Tornado FrequencyEF1 Equivalent” Tornado FrequencyCFMartin CFMartin

What’s Happening with Rainfall?What’s Happening with Rainfall?

What’s Happening to the Ice?What’s Happening to the Ice?

Northern and Southern Sea Ice TrendsNorthern and Southern Sea Ice Trends

How About the Last 2500 Years?How About the Last 2500 Years?

““Battle of the Graphs”Battle of the Graphs”The upper “hockey stick” graph is from the The upper “hockey stick” graph is from the paper by Michael Mann, and is dominated paper by Michael Mann, and is dominated by tree ring proxy data from the North by tree ring proxy data from the North American bristlecone pine.American bristlecone pine.The lower graph is a composite of The lower graph is a composite of European proxy data from many sources, European proxy data from many sources, and was the widely accepted and was the widely accepted understanding of Northern Hemisphere understanding of Northern Hemisphere climate until Mann’s “hockey stick” climate until Mann’s “hockey stick” became fashionable as the global warming became fashionable as the global warming alarmist’s rallying cry. alarmist’s rallying cry.

From Greenland Ice DataFrom Greenland Ice Data

What DoesWhat Does

PaleoclimatologyPaleoclimatology

Tell Us?Tell Us?(Analysis of Ancient Climate)(Analysis of Ancient Climate)

Evolution of Earth’s Pre-Cambrian Evolution of Earth’s Pre-Cambrian

AtmosphereAtmosphere

StromatolitesStromatolites

Phanerozoic EonPhanerozoic Eon

540 MYA – Present540 MYA – PresentContinents form, drift, Continents form, drift, reformreformLife develops, Life develops, becomes diverse and becomes diverse and more complexmore complexClimate and Climate and atmosphere variableatmosphere variableMass extinctionsMass extinctions

COCO22 During Phanerozoic During Phanerozoic

History of Temperature, COHistory of Temperature, CO22 and Ice for the and Ice for the

last 540 Million Years (Phanerozoic Eon)last 540 Million Years (Phanerozoic Eon)

Notes on Previous Graphs:Notes on Previous Graphs:

The extreme dip in COThe extreme dip in CO22 levels at 300-350 MYA levels at 300-350 MYA accompanied the Permo-Carboniferous Ice Age and the accompanied the Permo-Carboniferous Ice Age and the collapse of the great rain forests. collapse of the great rain forests.

One may be tempted to conclude that too little COOne may be tempted to conclude that too little CO22 is the is the causecause of ice ages. However, ice core data from the most of ice ages. However, ice core data from the most recent Pleistocene period indicates that the drop in COrecent Pleistocene period indicates that the drop in CO22 followsfollows the drop in temperature by 800-1000 years, as the drop in temperature by 800-1000 years, as the ocean surfaces cool and more atmospheric COthe ocean surfaces cool and more atmospheric CO22 goes into solution into the water. The same is true of the goes into solution into the water. The same is true of the interglacial periods as the planet emerges from ice ages.interglacial periods as the planet emerges from ice ages.

That is, the temperature always changes That is, the temperature always changes firstfirst, and , and thenthen the COthe CO22 changes. To this point, Al Gore’s changes. To this point, Al Gore’s Inconvenient Inconvenient TruthTruth is grossly in error on the relationship between CO is grossly in error on the relationship between CO22 and temperature. COand temperature. CO22 is the is the effecteffect, not the , not the causecause..

Last 5 Million YearsLast 5 Million Years

““Smoothed” Temperature History for Last 400 Smoothed” Temperature History for Last 400 Thousand YearsThousand Years

CO2 and Glaciation CO2 and Glaciation

The Climate Models Aren’t Working!The Climate Models Aren’t Working!

ConclusionsConclusionsThe Earth is in a slight warming trend (~1 degree F in The Earth is in a slight warming trend (~1 degree F in 100 years). This is not a cause for alarm or drastic 100 years). This is not a cause for alarm or drastic action. (Note: global temperature has been constant for action. (Note: global temperature has been constant for the last 16 years.)the last 16 years.)

The COThe CO22 level is the atmosphere has increased from 300 level is the atmosphere has increased from 300 ppm to 390 ppm over the last 100 years as a result of ppm to 390 ppm over the last 100 years as a result of human activity.human activity.

The Earth has experienced warming and cooling The Earth has experienced warming and cooling throughout both its recent and its ancient history. The throughout both its recent and its ancient history. The climate changes all by itself, without any influence by climate changes all by itself, without any influence by humankind.humankind.

There is no direct evidence that proves a There is no direct evidence that proves a correlation between the current anthropogenic correlation between the current anthropogenic COCO22 increase and the temperature trend of the increase and the temperature trend of the last 100 years. In fact, a better correlation exists last 100 years. In fact, a better correlation exists between between solar activitysolar activity and temperature. and temperature.

The alarmists warn of “runaway” climate change The alarmists warn of “runaway” climate change if COif CO22 gets too much higher. In fact, CO gets too much higher. In fact, CO22 levels levels have been much higher in the history of the have been much higher in the history of the planet. There is no evidence that COplanet. There is no evidence that CO22 has has played a major role in the climate changes of the played a major role in the climate changes of the past. In fact, fluctuations in COpast. In fact, fluctuations in CO22 levels are much levels are much more likely the more likely the resultresult of climate changes, rather of climate changes, rather than the than the causecause..

Conclusions (cont’d)Conclusions (cont’d)

The climate is a “chaotic,” robust, extremely The climate is a “chaotic,” robust, extremely complicated collection of physical processes, complicated collection of physical processes, with many feedback mechanisms which tend to with many feedback mechanisms which tend to have a self-correcting effect on the climate. have a self-correcting effect on the climate.

Much of the warming hysteria is based on the Much of the warming hysteria is based on the predictions of mathematical models. These predictions of mathematical models. These models predict a monotonic increase in the models predict a monotonic increase in the temperature of the Earth, but have failed to temperature of the Earth, but have failed to duplicate the observed behavior. While it is duplicate the observed behavior. While it is beneficial to try to understand how the climate beneficial to try to understand how the climate behaves through mathematical models, the behaves through mathematical models, the models must be validated by observations. models must be validated by observations.

Conclusions (cont’d)Conclusions (cont’d)

Al Gore and Roger RevelleAl Gore and Roger Revelle

Roger Revelle was a renowned oceanographer and Roger Revelle was a renowned oceanographer and taught at several institutions, including Harvard. One of taught at several institutions, including Harvard. One of his students was Al Gore. his students was Al Gore.

In his In his Inconvenient TruthInconvenient Truth, Al Gore praises Roger Revelle , Al Gore praises Roger Revelle for bringing rising COfor bringing rising CO22 from human activity to public from human activity to public awareness, and for serving as his inspiration in Gore’s awareness, and for serving as his inspiration in Gore’s political quest against “carbon pollution.”political quest against “carbon pollution.”

Later in his life, as Revelle saw the overreaction to his Later in his life, as Revelle saw the overreaction to his work by Gore and others, and by political bodies like the work by Gore and others, and by political bodies like the UN IPCC, he urged caution. His second thoughts are UN IPCC, he urged caution. His second thoughts are quoted on the next slide.quoted on the next slide.

Roger Revelle’s Second ThoughtsRoger Revelle’s Second ThoughtsFrom an Article Published by him and Fred SingerFrom an Article Published by him and Fred Singer(Excerpt from Wikipedia article on Roger Revelle)(Excerpt from Wikipedia article on Roger Revelle)

““Drastic, precipitous and, especially, unilateral, steps to Drastic, precipitous and, especially, unilateral, steps to delay the putative greenhouse impacts can cost jobs and delay the putative greenhouse impacts can cost jobs and prosperity and increase the human costs of global prosperity and increase the human costs of global poverty, without being effective. Stringent economic poverty, without being effective. Stringent economic controls now would be economically devastating controls now would be economically devastating particularly for developing countries.”particularly for developing countries.”

The article concluded:The article concluded:

““The scientific base for a greenhouse warming is too The scientific base for a greenhouse warming is too uncertain to justify drastic action at this time. There is uncertain to justify drastic action at this time. There is little risk in delaying policy responses.”little risk in delaying policy responses.”

Resources for SkepticsResources for Skepticshttp://www.cfact.org/http://www.cfact.org/

http://www.climatedepot.com/http://www.climatedepot.com/

http://www.thegwpf.org/http://www.thegwpf.org/

http://icecap.us/http://icecap.us/

http://petitionproject.org/http://petitionproject.org/