Climate Change - Our Challenge for the 21st Century by Jennifer Adkins, Director, Partnership for the Delaware Estuary

Climate Change:

Our Challenge for the 21st Century

Dr. Susan S. Kilham Department of Biodiversity, Earth and Environmental Science

Drexel University

Jennifer Adkins Executive Director

Partnership for the Delaware Estuary

Sources of Information

From the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary:

2007: Estuary News: Climate Change Hits Home

2010: Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary

2011: Weathering Change

2012: Technical Report for the Delaware Estuary and Basin

From Pennsylvania State University:

2013: Pennsylvania Climate Impacts Assessment Update

Local Impacts of Climate Change in this

Century

Increased temperatures (up to 4°C

(7.2°F)by 2100-A2)

Increased precipitation

Increased evapotranspiration

Decreased soil moisture

(except in spring)

Increased stream temperatures

Increased salinity ( sea levels + stream

flow)

But, Also Consider

Population growth

Urbanization and other

land cover changes

Pollution of water bodies

These could be equal or even greater stressors than

climate change, especially in the near future

Consequences of Changes:

Temperature

Increased temperatures cause decreased

oxygen concentrations.

Additionally, increased N-oxygen demand from

increased NH4 loading

Consequences for sensitive fish species,

especially YOY sturgeon and cold water species

Increased NH4 loading also affects FW mussels

Changes in growing season, phenology misfits

Consequences of Change:

Precipitation

General increase in precipitation in the last 30 years

Increased seasonal variability in precipitation: greater in winter/spring and less in summer

Less snow, shorter snow cover duration

Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events (changes in channel morphology, flushing of contaminants, erosion of stream banks, higher sediment loads)

Decreased survival and reproductive success for fish and macroinvertebrates.

Consequences of Change:

Evapotranspiration

Precipitation during growing season is returned nearly completely to the atmosphere via evapotranspiration

Lengthening of growing season increases evapotranspiration

Water levels in streams in summer/fall will decline

Low flows and higher temperatures are likely to decrease habitat suitability for aquatic organisms (low O2, increased flow variability, timing of peak flows and changes in stream T)

Consequences of Change:

Soil Moisture Soil moisture droughts will increase because of

higher T and lower precipitation during summers.

This trend is already apparent.

Wetter winters over frozen soils leads to greater

runoff, even floods.

Groundwater recharge occurs mostly in spring,

but increased precipitation is unlikely to

compensate for excessive withdrawals.

Consequences of Change:

Increased Salinity Drinking water for 15 million people (DRBC: Na <

50ppm; AHA Na < 20 ppm). Chloride

is expected to increase 4X in Philadelphia by 2100

Sea level increase (globally up to 1.4 m , but

regionally higher by 2100)

Severe impacts to wetlands

with critical problems for

wetland species

Oyster growth and survival

will be impacted

A Few Particular Concerns

Adjusting the traditional paradigm of restoration to past conditions to the reality of climate change

Protecting source water quantity and quality

Wetland/salt marsh issues

Species disconnects in phenology

Barriers to species migrations; assisted migration

Mussell/shad hatcheries

Tipping points

Considerations

What are our goals?

How do we measure and monitor to evaluate

whether or not we are accomplishing our goals?

What inputs are needed to build better models for

predicting anticipated changes?

What are the barriers to accomplishing goals?

How will climate change in the Delaware Estuary? How will changes impact key resources? What are our options for making them more resilient? What actions are recommended to protect them? What if we don’t take action?

3 case

studies

PDE Climate Case Studies

In the Watershed

Water Quality

Improvement

Forest Protection

Stormater

Management

Green Infrastructure

Flow Management

Infrastructure

Updates

2000 2100

25% Loss

of tidal

wetlands!

In the Marshes

• Assessed condition of 268 points since 2010

• Comparative data analyses and management recommendations

• Studying ecosystem services associated with salt marshes

• Long-term monitoring stations (right)

• Devising new tactics to boost coastal wetland resilience

Mid Atlantic Coastal Wetland

Assessment

Living Shorelines

Coastal Wetlands for Shoreline Defense

Elevation Capital Layer

2020

2050

2035

2025

Hybrid LS Bio LS Sediment

Strategic BMP Layer

“Marsh Futures”

In the River and Bay

Shell planting for Oysters

Propagate Mussels

Monitoring & Research

In Communities

Out of Harm’s Way Forum – August 2012

In Communities

Areas of Opportunity for

the Community and

Conservation

Organizations to Work

Together to Improve

Resilience with Green

Infrastructure

BaySIPP The Bayshore Sustainable Infrastructure Planning Project

THANKS!

http://www.delawareestuary.org/Wetlands

http://www.delawareestuary.org/Climate-preparedness-0

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