Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Risks, Opportunities and Tough Choices Danielle Kreeger Science Director
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Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary: Risks, Opportunities and Tough Choices
Danielle KreegerScience Director
The Partnership for the Delaware Estuary
Non-Profit Organization,Established 1996
One of 28 EPA National Estuary Programs
Tri-state, multi-region NEP
Coordination, Outreach, Education, Restoration and Science Advancement
Science and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC), multi-sector
Along the Christina River Wilmington, DE
Science & Management Committees
MonitoringAdvisory
Committee
Water QualityAdvisory
Committee
Fish Consumption
Task Force
RegionalRestorationWorkgroup
DE EstuaryWetland
Work Group
Atlantic CoastFish HabitatPartnership*
Fish & Wildlife
Cooperative
ClimateWork Group
Shellfish Stock
AssessmentWorkgroupSTAC
ToxicsAdvisory
Committee
AtlanticStates Marine
FisheriesCommission
BenthicInventory
Workgroup*Prospective
Climate Ready Pilot
Adaptation Planning
Tidal Marshes Bivalve Shellfish
ID
Vulnerabilities
Loss of Nature’s
Benefits
Adaptation
Options
Recommendations
Case Studies
Drinking Water
DK 5
1. Likely Physical Changes
2. Example Effects on Key Resources
Temp
Salinity Sea Level Rise
Wetlands Fish & Wildlife
Storms
Climate Change in the Delaware Estuary
DK 6
Water
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Erosion of Infrastructure
Overflowing Reservoir Capacity
Decreased Reservoir Supply
Power Outages
Combined Vulnerability and Confidence Levels
flooding
sea level rise
disruptions to aquatic ecosystems
storm surge
lightening and electrical disturbances
increased number and intensity of wild fires
increased frequency of short-term drought
decreased groundwater levels
decreased river discharge and stream flow
changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover
extreme flooding
increased groundwater levels
increased runoff
increased river discharge and stream flow
Prototype
Climate Impacts on Drinking Water Supply
Examples
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Campaign to Retrofit old Pipes
New Salt Resistance
Infrastructure
Create designated flood zones
Stream Buffers Controlled Burns
Relative Cost/Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Options
flooding
sea level rise
disruptions to aquatic ecosystems
storm surge
lightening and electrical disturbances
increased number and intensity of wild fires
increased frequency of short-term drought
decreased groundwater levels
decreased river discharge and stream flow
changes in watershed vegetation and forest cover
extreme flooding
increased groundwater levels
Prototype
Examples
Drinking Water Tough Questions• How can we maintain low salinity in the
upper estuary? • Will more reservoirs be needed, which have
their own issues? • Where should infrastructure be protected
from SLR versus strategic retreat?
Tidal Wetlands
A Signature Trait of SystemNear Contiguous BandDiverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes
Brackish MarshesSalt Marshes
Nature’s BenefitsFlood ProtectionWater QualityFish and WildlifeNatural AreasCarbon Sequestration
Milenium Ecosystem Assessment
1º Service2º Service 3º Service 4º Service
Provisioning
FoodFisheries Support
Algae and invertebrate production
Genetic Materials Phragmites control research
Biochemical Products Research in Antifungal Agents
Fiber and Fuel Cellulose stock
Regulating
Sequestration Carbon
Carbon Caps,
mitigation
Sediment StabilizationErosion control
Meet TMDLs for
sedimentStorm Protection/ Wave Attenuation/
Flood ProtectionProtect Property Values and
infrastructure
Gas RegulationCarbon Sequestration
Oxygen production
Water Quality Sequestration, Filtering TMDLs: Nutrients,
Pollutants
Cultural/ Spiritual
Human Well Being
Recreation Bird watching, hunting, boating
Spiritual and Inspirational Native American Uses
Educational
University reasearch & school
projects/trips
Aesthetic Value
Landscape pictures, paintings,
open space
Supporting
Habitat Wildlife, shellfish, insects
Biodiversity Maintain Plant Communities
Production Primary Production
Water Cycling/Hydrologic Regime
Nutrient Cycling/Biogeochemical
Processes
Maintain trophic cycles, soil
building
Wetland Benefits (Ecosystem Services)
Lives
Health
Livelihoods
Health
Health
Health
Health
Slide adapted from Carlos Duarte
Are Coastal Wetlands Crossing a Tipping Point?
Example
Extent of Climate Change
Ecosyste
m R
esponse Abrupt Response
ThresholdLikely
DK 11
Ecosyste
m R
esponse
Extent of Climate Change
Smooth
Response
Critical thresholds can be breached even if conditions change gradually
Unlikely
Living Shorelines 2008
Tidal Wetlands
Long-standing Concerns
Degradation
Conversion and Loss
Growing Concerns
Sea Level & Salinity Rise
Storms
Sediment budget
DK 12
Angola Neck – Rehoboth Bay, DESummer, 2006
Slide from Chris Bason and Amy Jacobs
Sudden Wetland Dieback – Marsh Browning
Moderately
Stressed
48%
Severely
Stressed
35%
Minimally
or Not
Stressed
17%
time
Be
nef
its
(fu
nct
ion
s)
Reference Wetland Condition
Restored Wetlands
Existing Wetlands
Slide adapted from Amy Jacobs (DNREC)
Changes in Wetland FunctionNatural versus Restored
Tidal Wetland Vulnerability?
Freshwater Tidal Marshes
• Salinity Rise Causes Conversion to Brackish• Barriers to Landward Migration• Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting
Salt Marshes
• Sea Level Rise, Subsidence and Sediment Deficits Lead to Drowning
• Storms and Wind Wave Erosion• Barriers to Landward Migration• Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives
Options?Living Shorelines
Delaware Estuary Living Shorelines
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Log Double Log Shellbag +
Log
Control
Ele
vati
on
In
crease %
Treatment
Tidal Wetlands Adaptation PlanningGoal: Maximize long-term ecosystem health and resiliency
Wetland Tough Choices• Where will wetlands will be
converted to open water?• Where can we save them ?• Where is strategic retreat
the best option?DK 18
Bivalves of the Delaware
DRBC
Crassostrea virginica
Elliptio complanata
Geukensia demissa
11 Other Species of Freshwater Unionid Mussels
Mya arenaria
Rangia cuneata
Corbicula fluminea
Mytilus edulis
Ensis directus
Mercenaria mercenaria
DK 19
Scientific Name Scientific Name DE NJ PA
ALASMIDONTA HETERODON DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL Endangered Endangered Critically Imperiled
ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA TRIANGLE FLOATER Extirpated ? Threatened Vulnerable
ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA BROOK FLOATER Endangered Endangered Imperiled
ANODONTA IMPLICATA ALEWIFE FLOATER Extremely Rare no data Extirpated ?
ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA EASTERN ELLIPTIO common common Secure
LAMPSILIS CARIOSA YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Vulnerable
LAMPSILIS RADIATA EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Imperiled
LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS GREEN FLOATER no data Endangered Imperiled
LEPTODEA OCHRACEA TIDEWATER MUCKET Endangered Threatened Extirpated ?
LIGUMIA NASUTA EASTERN PONDMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Critically Imperiled
MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA EASTERN PEARLSHELL no data no data Imperiled
PYGANODON CATARACTA EASTERN FLOATER no data no data Vulnerable
STROPHITUS UNDULATUS SQUAWFOOT Extremely Rare Species of Concern Apparently Secure
State Conservation Status
Shifts in Species Ranges of Freshwater Mussels
Patchy, Impaired
Elliptio complanata
Rare
Strophitus undulatus
Extirpated
Alasmidonta heterodon
Freshwater Mussel Larvae Require Fish Hosts
Fig
ure
fro
m C
um
min
gs a
nd M
ayer
(1992).
Most mussels
depend on
particular
fish species
Larvae are
brooded in the
ctenidia
Scientific Name Scientific Name DE NJ PA
ALASMIDONTA HETERODON DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL Endangered Endangered Critically Imperiled
ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA TRIANGLE FLOATER Extirpated ? Threatened Vulnerable
ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA BROOK FLOATER Endangered Endangered Imperiled
ANODONTA IMPLICATA ALEWIFE FLOATER Extremely Rare no data Extirpated ?
ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA EASTERN ELLIPTIO common common Secure
LAMPSILIS CARIOSA YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Vulnerable
LAMPSILIS RADIATA EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Imperiled
LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS GREEN FLOATER no data Endangered Imperiled
LEPTODEA OCHRACEA TIDEWATER MUCKET Endangered Threatened Extirpated ?
LIGUMIA NASUTA EASTERN PONDMUSSEL Endangered Threatened Critically Imperiled
MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA EASTERN PEARLSHELL no data no data Imperiled
PYGANODON CATARACTA EASTERN FLOATER no data no data Vulnerable
STROPHITUS UNDULATUS SQUAWFOOT Extremely Rare Species of Concern Apparently Secure
State Conservation Status
Shifts in Species Ranges of Freshwater Mussels
Patchy, Impaired
Elliptio complanata
Rare
Strophitus undulatus
Extirpated
Alasmidonta heterodon
www.livingclassrooms.org/lbo/dermo/oyster2.jpg
From DRBC
Oyster Disease and Salinity
From Rutgers HSRL
Salt Line Location
Oyster ManagementCan they maintain (or be maintained) until they might see more optimal conditions?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7
Year
Num
ber
per
Bush
el
Oyster Spat Mean Oyster Mean Spat
1758 Longer
Growing
Season
Intertidal Niche
Expansion?
To
day
2030
2060
Point of No Return
No Help
With Help
2 Recruitment
Events
Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory
DK 25
Options? Shellplanting
Delaware Bay Oysters
Crassostrea virginica
Brandywine River, PA
Geukensia demissa
Delaware Estuary Marshes
Elliptio complanata
Brandywine River, PA
DK 26
• Range Shifts with No Dispersal• Habitat Degradation (T, salinity, pH, fish hosts)
Bivalve Vulnerability?
Freshwater Mussel Beds
• Loss and Degradation of Wetland Habitat• Others: Food, PH
Salt marsh Mussel Beds
• Salinity Driven Disease Epizootics• Others: Food, pH
Oyster Reefs
CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project
Nature’s Benefits
Bivalve Shellfish are “Ecosystem Engineers”
DK 28
Start
8 adult musselsNo mussels
Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech DK 29
Water Filtration Benefits
Later
8 adult musselsNo mussels
Slide from R. Neves, VA Tech DK 30
Water Filtration Benefits
Population-Level Water ProcessingB
illi
on
s o
f L
iters
per
Ho
ur
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Elliptio complanata
Geukensia demissa
Crassostrea virginica
Water Filtration Benefits
Nature’s Benefits (Natural Capital)
Lives
Livelihoods
Health
Livelihoods
Health
Shellfish Tough DecisionsWhich species and associated benefits can be
sustained?Which should we invest in? (since funding will always
be limited)
Climate Change in a Complex Landscape
The Working River4th largest US urban centerworld’s largest freshwater port70% of east coast oilpast and present industrial center
The Living EstuaryWater fowl, finfish, shellfishHorseshoe crab populationExtensive tidal marshes
DK 33
•Dredging
•Ecological Flows
•Withdrawals
•Wind Farms
•Development
•Marcellus Shale
•Emerging Pollutants
•Spills, NRDA
•Land Use Change
DK 34
Climate & Other Changes Together
Added Complexity
Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project
and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network
Many Other IssuesTiming of Shorebird Migration and
Horseshoe Crab Spawning
To
day
2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7
Year
Num
ber
per
Bush
el
Oyster Spat Mean Oyster Mean Spat
1758
Point of No Return
No Help
With Help
Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory
DK 36
Principle: “Restore” for the Future• Forecast future sustainable states (winners and losers)• Smart “restoration” = climate adaptation
• Shift policy and management paradigms
Principle: Maximize Bang for the Buck
Next Steps? 1. Science
Strengthen adaptation plan with more rigorous monitoring and predictive modeling for likely consequences
2. Local Relevance Develop high resolution geospatial–based planning tools that guide local actions, nested within a watershed-basis
3. Nature’s BenefitsDevelop and use decision tools with “bang for the buck” estimates of environmental outcomes for various adaptation tactics
4. Collaboration Implement a coordinated strategy for advancing science, policy and on-the-ground actions
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