CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NIGERIAN CONTEXT

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NIGERIAN CONTEXT

Emodi Nnaemeka Vincent

Department of Technology Management Economics and Policy Program

Seoul National University`

Presentation at the APEC Climate Center, 12, Centum 7-ro, Haeundae-gu Busan 48058, Republic of Korea.

Content

1. Introduction

2. Climate Change in Nigeria

3. Key Findings on Costs of Implementing Priority Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

4. Key Findings on Financial and Policy Instruments for Addressing Climate Change

5. Institutional Framework

6. Lessons Learned and the Way Forward

Bibliography

1. INTRODUCTION

Climate change refers to an increase in average global temperatures which is due to a similar increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) effect (Olaniyi, 2013; IEA, 2015).

GHGs is believed to be caused by uncontrolled human activities and natural events (He et al. 2015; Case et al. 2015).

GHG effect is the process wherein GHGs (water vapor, CO2, CH4, etc.) in the atmosphere absorbs and re-emit heat being radiated from the earth, trapping warmth (IEA, 2015).

Source: World Meteorological Organization, 2013

Fig. 2 Global Temperature 1850-2010

Source: www.scienceblogs.com

Fig. 1 Affected regions at Sea Level rise (100 meters)

Recent evidence indicates that the world has already warmed by 0.80C since the pre-industrial era and under a BAU scenario, global mean temperature could reach around 20C by 2060 (PACJA, 2009).

1. INTRODUCTION

Average predicted rise in temperature between 1980/99 and 2080/99 is between 3°C and 4°C, which is more than 1.5 times the average global trend.Source: Eltahir Research Group

Source: Eltahir Research Group

Fig. 3 Percentage change in annual rainfall and temperature 1980-1999

Fig. 4 Percentage change in annual rainfall and temperature 2080/99

DFID (2009) study on Nigeria:

• A possible sea level rise from 1990 levels to 0.3 m by 2020 and 1m by 2050, and rise in temperature of up to 3.2°C by 2050 under a high climate change scenario.

• Sea level rise of 1m could result in loss of 75% of the Niger Delta by 2050.

• Climate change could result in a loss in GDP of between 6% and 30% by 2050, worth an estimated US$ 100 to 460 billion dollars.

• By 2020, if no adaptation is implemented, between 2-11% of Nigeria’s GDP could potentially be lost.

1. INTRODUCTIONFig.5 Global CO2 emission per capita and vulnerability to climate change

National Climate Policy Development Framework - Climate-relevant Policies, Strategies and Plans in Nigeria

National Environmental Policy (1989, 1999): • Addresses the challenges of land degradation, air and water pollution, urban decay and municipal waste, hazards of drought, costal surges, floods and erosion.

• Support policies:• National Policy on Drought and Desertification• Drought Preparedness Plan• National Policy on Erosion, Flood Control and Coastal Zone Management• National Forest Policy• National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan

Agricultural Policy (2001): • achieve self-sufficiency in basic food and food security,• increased production of agricultural raw materials for industries

2. CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA

National Climate Policy Development Framework - Climate-relevant Policies, Strategies and Plans in Nigeria

Water Policy: • Improve on the nation’s water resources management including the management of hydrological risks and vulnerabilities.

• Ensure the assessment of water resources and improve real time forecasting of hydrological phenomena.

Energy Policy:• Expanding access to energy services and reducing poverty;• Improving learning, capacity-building, research and development on various renewable energy technologies;

• Providing a road map for achieving a substantial share of the national energy supply mix through renewable energy.

Others: • Greenwall Initiative and Presidential Initiative on Afforestation, implemented in the context of the Forest Policy initiative.


Current National Development Plan – Vision 20:2020

The main goal of the Vision 2020 is to position the country as one of the 20 largest economies in the world, able to consolidate its leadership role in Africa and establish itself as a significant player in the global economic and political arena.

Objectives:• Stimulate economic growth and lunch the country onto a path of sustained and rapid socioeconomic development.

• Reduce the impact of climate change on socioeconomic development processes in the overall context of preserving the environment for socio-economic development.


Status of GHG emissions


CO2 emission

CH4 N2O CO2e

Energy 115,038 50,508 2,960 168,506

Industry 2,101 2,101Agriculture

57,730 2,664 60,394

LUCF 97,384 184 97,568Waste 897 1,480 2,377TOTAL 214,523 109,31

97,104 330,94

6

51%

1%18%

29%

1%Energy

Industry

Agriculture

LUCF

Waste

Table 1. Summary of GHG emission in 2000 (in Gg) Fig.6 Share of sector to total National GHG emission in 2000

Source: Obioh (2003)

Vulnerability and Adaptation AssessmentsVulnerability Indices


Fig.11 Nigeria’s adaptive capacity Fig.12 Nigeria’s sensitivity capacity

Source: Federal Ministry of Environment, Abuja Source: Federal Ministry of Environment, Abuja

Vulnerability and Adaptation AssessmentsVulnerability Indices


Fig.13 Nigeria’s exposure capacity Fig.14 Nigeria’s relative vulnerability

Source: Federal Ministry of Environment, Abuja Source: Federal Ministry of Environment, Abuja

Vulnerability and Adaptation AssessmentsSectorial Analysis• Water• Agriculture• Coastal areas• Forest and forestry• Energy • Health• Urbanization• Tourism• Transportation


Source: www.punchng.com Source: www.kas.de

Source: www.goinggreenrecyclingnigeria.orgSource: www.thisdaylive.com

Cost of Implementing Priority Mitigation Measures

3. KEY FINDINGS ON COSTS OF IMPLEMENTING PRIOROTY MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION MEASURES

Mitigation Option Incremental Cost, US$m

CO2 Reduction Capacity, Mton

$/Ton

CFL Lighting -299 5.155 -58.00Improved kerosene stove -131 6.122 -21.40Displacement of fuel-oil by gas in cement industry -138 7.49 -18.42Improved electrical appliances in the residential sector

-161 9.566 -16.83

Efficient motors in industry -171 10.738 -15.92Small-scale hydro (<10 MW) -427 41.313 -10.34Kainji Hydro Power Plant (Retrofit) -351 50.01 -7.02Improved woodstove in residential sector -72 18.369 -3.92Large-scale Hydros -686 197.353 -3.48Central solar -24 18.735 -1.28Improved refrigerators 154 15.793 9.75Residential solar PV 74 5.883 12.58Gas flare reduction 45534 919.201 49.54Efficient gasoline cars 17478 247.05 70.75Improved air conditioners 218 1.54 141.56Efficient diesel trucks 9060 60.096 150.76Improved electrical appliances, industrial and commercial sectors

2485 14.431 172.20

Source: NEEDS (2010)

Cost of Implementing Priority Adaptation Measures

3. KEY FINDINGS ON COSTS OF IMPLEMENTING PRIOROTY MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION MEASURES

Sector Option Cost Grand Total

Water Resources Small dams about 1000 ha $50m Upwards of $1bn

Livestock Production Enrichment of rangeland $500 initial cost & $200/yr for 5years

Upwards of $300m

Crop Production Breeding of hardier crops $200,000/trait/ crop $10.5bn

Fish Production Cropping of hardier breeds $150,000/trait/ crop Upwards of $10bn

Forest and Forestry Establishment of plantation, Protection of forests

$500/ha (initial cost) & $250/ha for 10 yrs, $1000/ha

Minimum of $3.8bn

Coastal areas Coastline stabilization, Settlement Relocation

Between $6bn and $18bn up to year 2030

$5bn

Human Health Primary Health care promotion, Immunization, Preventive and curative medicine

Between $6bn and $18bn up to year 2030

$6bn

Sensitization Climate change education

Energy Electric power generation $10bnSource: NEEDS (2010)

National: • The Federal Government is increasingly devoting a significant proportion of its national budget to climate change or climate change sensitive sectors of the economy.

• At the State level, some States of the Federation have taken keen interest in addressing issues of climate change.

• National Strategic Climate Change Trust Fund (NSCCTF)

Regional Level:• Nigeria is actively involved in the climate change related activities of ECOWAS and AU to source additional and complimentary flow of financial resources to tackle climate change at the regional level.

International Level:• Climate-specific additional resources under the aegis of UNFCCC (GEF, Adaptation Fund, SCCF)• Resources from the carbon market• Concessional funding (ODA) from the DAC community specifically for mitigation and adaptation• Other than climate-specific ODA from the DAC community• Non-DAC donor support

4. KEY FINDINGS ON FINANCIAL AND POLICY INSTRUMENTS FOR ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE

Policy Instruments and Initiatives• National Environment Policy• Drought and Desertification Policy• Drought Preparedness• National Action Plan to Combat Desertification• National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan• National Erosion and Flood Control• Water Policy• Agriculture Policy• Forestry• Renewable Energy Master Plan• National Energy Policy• National Energy Master Plan• National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy

4. KEY FINDINGS ON FINANCIAL AND POLICY INSTRUMENTS FOR ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE

Special Climate Change Unit (SCCU) with the Federal Ministry of Environment in Abuja, Nigeria

Inter-ministerial Committee on Climate Change with representation from the following ministries;• Ministry of Finance• Ministry of Agriculture• Ministry of Water Resources• Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC)• Ministry of Foreign Affairs• Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)• NGOs (Nigerian Environmental Study/Action Team)• Academic (Centre for Climate Change and Fresh Water Resources; Federal University of Technology Minna; Obafemi Awolowo University Ile-Ife; and Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University, Bauchi)

Presidential Implementation Committee on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in the Presidency.

4. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK

Lessons Learned:

• Responding adequately to climate change in Nigeria will, in general, be costly.• Detailed vulnerability assessment and analysis of the key sectors of the economy is needed for a proper understanding of the impacts of climate change.

• Up-to-date data that is critical for climate change analysis and information dissemination is not readily available in Nigeria.

• A proactive response, rather than a reactive response to climate change issues, will best serve the development needs of Nigeria.

• Integrated and sustainable approach is grounded in the fact that mitigation is essential to avoid the unmanageable, while adaptation is no less essential to manage the unavoidable.

• Effective resource mobilization strategy, based on private-public-partnership (PPP) is critical to enhancing national capacity in handling climate change at the national, regional and international levels.

5. LESSONS LEARNED AND THE WAY FORWARD

Way Forward:

• Finalizing a National Climate Change Policy and Response Strategy for the country

• Finalizing and launching the Nationally Strategic Climate Change Trust Fund`

• Commissioning an extensive study for an up-to-date GHG emission profile, projection and mitigation strategies

• Commissioning an extensive study on the socio-economic impacts of climatic change

• Undertaking detailed costing of adaptation initiatives for planning purposes

• Strengthening national capacity at the Federal, State and Local Government levels to plan and respond effectively to climate change impacts, with evidence-based and well-researched information.

5. LESSONS LEARNED AND THE WAY FORWARD

• Adebulugbe, A., 2003: Inventory of Greenhouse Gases for Selected Sectors in Nigeria. Technical Report submitted to the Federal Ministry of Environment.

• Case, M. J., Lawler, J. J., & Tomasevic, J. A. (2015). Relative sensitivity to climate change of species in northwestern North America. Biological Conservation, 187, 127-133.

• Climate Change. Going Green Recycling Company. Available online at: www.goinggreenrecyclingnigeria.org/category/climate-change. Retrieved on 27th June, 2015.

• Starts With A Bang. Science Blogs. Available online at: www.scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2010/03/19/one-thing-we-can-all-agree-on. Retrieved on 27th June, 2015.

• DFID (Department for International Development), 2009: Impact of Climate Change on Nigeria’s Economy.• He, C., Zhao, Y., Huang, Q., Zhang, Q., & Zhang, D. (2015). Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact

of climate change on urban landscape dynamics. Science of The Total Environment, 532, 48-60.• Climate Change. International Energy Agency (IEA). Available online at: www.iea.org/topics/climatechange. Retrieved on 27th

June, 2015.• Low Water Levels at Hydro Stations to Worsen Power Supply. This Day Live. Available online at:

www.thisdaylive.com/articles/low-water-levels-at-hydro-stations-to-worsen-power-supply/172938. Retrieved on 27th June, 2015.

• National Energy Policy. Energy Commission of Nigeria. Available online at: www.energy.gov.ng• National Environment, Economic and Development Study (NEEDS) for Climate Change in Nigeria (Final Draft). Federal Ministry

of Environment, Nigeria. 2010.• Nigeria in the dilemma of climate change. KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG. Available online at:

www.kas.de/nigeria/en/publications/11468. Retrieved on 27th June, 2015.• Obioh, I. B., 2003: Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Nigeria: 1988 – 2000. Technical Report submitted to NEST/GCSI.

Inc.• Olaniyi, O. A., Ojekunle, Z. O., & Amujo, B. T. (2013). Review of Climate Change and Its Effect on Nigeria Ecosystem.

International Journal of African and Asian Studies, 1, 57-65.• PACJA (PanAfrican Climate Justice Alliance), 2009: The Economic Cost of Climate Change in Africa.• PDP blames sand filling for ocean surge. PUNCH. Available online at: www.punchng.com/news/pdp-blames-sand-filling-for-

ocean-surge. Retrieved on 26th June 2015.• Samson, J., Berteaux, D., McGill, B. J., & Humphries, M. M. (2011). Geographic disparities and moral hazards in the

predicted impacts of climate change on human populations. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20(4), 532-544.• The Global Climate 2001-2010, A Decade of Climate Extremes. The World Meteorological Organization. Available online at:

http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_976_en.html. Retrieved on 26th June, 2015.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Thank You for Listening…

Q&A

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NIGERIAN CONTEXT

Documents