Climate Change and Tourism: Global Context

Climate Change and Tourism:Global Context

Caribsave WorkshopSt. Lucia – Nov 2009

Dr. Daniel ScottExpert Team Expert Team on Climate on Climate and Tourismand Tourism

The New Realities of Tourism in an    Era of Global Climate Change

» Climate Change is Already Affecting Investments, Operations & Travel , pPatterns

» Future Impact Pathways» Future Impact PathwaysAdaptation for sustainable tourism is                 not an option and must commence now

» The Mitigation ChallengeTourism is part of the problem andTourism is part of the problem and 

must be part of the solution

T i i N t P d !» Tourism is Not Prepared !

The Future is Now … Climate Change is Already Affecting Destinations and Travel Patterns

Billion $ Investments that Bet on Climate Change Affecting Tourism MarketsClimate Change Affecting Tourism Markets

Air Travel and the Environment:Th B ttl f P bli O i iThe Battle for Public Opinion

Emergence of ‘Last Chance’ Tourism Market

‘See Them Now: Endangered Wonders’Places to Visit Before they Vanish

Arctic and Antarctic Wildlife – Polar BearsArctic and Antarctic Wildlife – Polar Bears

Cloud Forests – Costa Rica’s Cloud Forest

Coral Reefs – Great Barrier Reef, Caribbean

Mountain Glaciers/Snow Caps – Andes, Alps, Himalayas, Rockies, Kilimanjaro

Low lying Islands and CitiesLow‐lying Islands and Cities –Maldives, Tuvalu, Venice, New Orleans

Mangrove Forests – Florida Everglades, Bangladesh, Caribbean

Investors‐Insurers are Taking Notice:Tourism in the ‘Danger Zone’

Six Industry Sectors Should Be on Alert Over Climate Change Risks

‘Collectively and individually the tourism industry can no longer afford to ignore climate change ’no longer afford to ignore climate change …’Fiona Jeffery ‐Chairperson of World Travel Market 2007

Governments Are Starting to ActGovernments Are Starting to Act

‘Tourism Action Plan on Climate Change’» Announced  18 April 2007

» Assess the impact of climate change on tourism and develop » Assess the impact of climate change on tourism and develop adaptation strategies for the industry

Weather risksRegulatory risks (domestic and international)Market risks (international competitiveness)Market risks (international competitiveness)

What of the Future?Climate Change Impact Pathways

DirectChange in

Alter Environmental Resources for Mitigation

Affect Economic Growth and g

Climate Tourismg

Policyalter recreation alter recreation season length & season length &

tourism products tourism products (glaciers, wildlife, coral

increase increase travel costs travel costs

Securityadverse impact on adverse impact on global economyglobal economyseason length & season length &

qualityqualityaffect demand affect demand (push factor at (push factor at source markets)source markets)

(g , ,reefs, beaches, forests)sustainability of sustainability of operations operations (water

l i t )

and affect and affect destination destination choicechoice

global economy global economy and tourism and tourism spendingspendingpolitical political source markets)source markets)

increased extreme increased extreme eventsevents

supply, insurance costs)disease and traveler disease and traveler healthhealth

destabilizationdestabilization

Will the Caribbean be‘Too Hot’ for Tourism?

Preferred Climate for Beach Holidays

40U t bl

Based on 2009 Survey of European Tourists

34

36

38

erature (0C) Unacceptably

Hot

28

30

32

y High Tempe

Optimal2050s2080s

22

24

26

verage Daily

Unacceptably20

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Av

B id B b d C i S L i

UnacceptablyCool

Bridgetown, Barbados Castries, St. Lucia

Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise

Infrastructure Damages Due to SLRExclusive of Hurricane Damage(high‐impact minus low‐impact scenario)(high impact minus low impact scenario)

• 2025 USD 10.7 billion annually

• 2050 USD 21 9 billion annually2050 USD 21.9 billion annually

* ‐ amounts in 2007 dollars

Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Demonstration Project

Beach Loss to Sea Level Rise and Storms

Cancun Cancun ii

2006 Beach ExtentMexicoMexico(2009)(2009)

Extreme Events and Insurability

‘Hurricane Katrina Blows AwayHurricane Katrina Blows Away ‘Big Easy’ Tourism’31 Aug 2005 ‐ USA Today

$235 million Hard Rock Casino 

US Gulf Coast & Caribbean Region(Mid to Late‐21st Century)

• Estimated premium increase 20‐80%• Increase deductibles (order of magnitude)• Drop coverage in high risk areas

Coral Reef Bleaching and Diving

Percent of Coral Reef

g g

Percent of Coral Reef Experiencing Bleaching at Least 

Every 2 Years

2030 20 0 d

Globally ‐ all major coral reefs are expected to be severely  degraded 

Donner et al. 2005

2030s = top row; 2050s = second row by 2050 … 32% at risk of die‐off by 2050

Impact of Climate Policy on Tourist Arrivals to the Caribbean

“The immediate current threats are emerging as our major tourism markets seek to take urgent and decisive action to gcurb their own contributions to climate change.  In so doing these developed nations risk curtailing the Caribbean region’s efforts to develop its societies and economies through itsefforts to develop its societies and economies through its 

participation in the global tourism industry”

Caribbean Hotel Association‐Caribbean Tourism Organization ‐ 2007

Major Mitigation Policy Proposals being Considered for  Int’l Aviation in Copenhagen

• European Union – Emission Trading System (entry in 2012)

• Int’l Air Passenger Adaptation Levy (IAPAL) (entry in 2013)• Int l Air Passenger Adaptation Levy (IAPAL) (entry in 2013)– proposed by group of least developing nations– levy on all int’l passengers to support adaptation in developing countries

j d l f US$ 8 10 billi– projected annual revenues of US$ 8 to 10 billion

• Aviation Global Deal (entry in 2013)– proposed by Air France‐KLM, British Airways, Cathay Pacific, Finnair, Qatar 

Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Virgin Blue, BAA, The Climate Group

d ti t t (2005 b li )– reduction targets (2005 baseline): 0% growth, ‐5% or ‐20% by 2020‐50% to ‐80% by 2050

f ti i f CO2 ll USD 1 5 t 5 0 billi– revenues from auctioning of CO2 allowances = USD 1.5 to 5.0 billion– funds into int’l adaptation‐mitigation fund in developing countries

Impact of Climate Policy and Oil Price on Air Travel Costs and Arrivals to the Caribbean 

(from EU and North America)35000000

BAU

Scenario Ten BAU30000000

alsvia Air

Scenario Nine

Serious Scenario

Observed

‐4.3%

‐15.6%

20000000

25000000

mbe

r of Arriva Observed

Oil Price Rebound

Oil Price Drop

15000000

20000000

Num

10000000

ETS Introduced2008 High Oil Prices

ETS Introduced

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Scott and Pentalow 2009

Global Tourism Vulnerability ‘Hotspots’

Regional Knowledge Gaps

Climate Change ‘Paradise almost lost: ‘Paradise almost lost: Maldives seek to buy a newMaldives seek to buy a new Adaptation in the 

Tourism Sector

Maldives seek to buy a new Maldives seek to buy a new homeland’homeland’Nov 2008 ,The Guardian Tourism Sector

» Studies of climate change riskappraisal in the tourism sectorThe Maldives will divert a portion of appraisal in the tourism sectorhave found  low awareness andlittle evidence of long‐termstrategic planning

The Maldives will divert a portion of the country's billion‐dollar tourist 

revenue into buying a new homeland 

» All tourism businesses and destinations will need to adapt in order to minimize risks and capitalize on an new opportunities in

strategic planning.

order to minimize risks and capitalize on an new opportunities in an sustainable way

» Knowledge of the capacity of current adaptations to cope» Knowledge of the capacity of current adaptations to cope successfully with future climate change is very limited

Relying on past experience is not adequate … adaptations can failEvidence that tourism operators are over‐estimating adaptive capacityThe  sustainability of adaptations has not been examined

Time Horizons for Adaptationfor Adaptation

Mitigation Policy

Tourism is Part of the Problem:Tourism is Part of the Problem:The Solutions Present Risks and Opportunities!

If Tourism was a Country

Rank CountryPercentage of

total emissions

y

y(2005)

1 United States 22.2 %2 China 18.4 %- European Union 11.4 %3 R i 5 6 %3 Russia 5.6 %

4 India 4 9 %

‐ Global Tourism Sector          5.0%

4 India 4.9 %5 Japan 4.6 %6 Germany 3.0 %y7 Canada 2.3 %8 United Kingdom 2.2 %9 South Korea 1.7 %

10 Italy 1.7 %

Tourism Must be Part of the Solution!‘Thoughts from Industry Leaders’

‘Unless (the tourism industry) takes positive action to reduce our carbon footprint – and are seen to be doing it – others will act for us.’ 

Peter de Jong, CEO of PATA

“Today … our Members ‐ all Travel & Tourism leaders ‐have taken a significant step towards ensuring that the progressive voice of the industry joins that of other infl ential constit ents of the global b sinessinfluential constituents of the global businesscommunity, in order to help ensure that the challenge of climate change is rapidly addressed."challenge of climate change is rapidly addressed.  

Jean-Claude Baumgarten, President & CEO of WTTC

The Post-Kyoto Mitigation Challenge for Global Tourism

4000

3000

CO2

Gap betweenBAU and WTTC

2000

M to

n C

WTTC goals of

Target > 100%

0

1000

? -50% of 2005 levels

WTTC goals of -25% of 2005 levels

0

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050

BAU Estimates from UNWTO‐UNEP‐WMO 2008BAU Estimates from UNWTO‐UNEP‐WMO 2008 

Emerging Trends:Emerging Trends:‘Carbon Neutral’ Destinations

◘ Marketing advantage in an increasingly◘ Marketing advantage in an increasingly ‘carbon aware’ marketplace

◘ Declared Intention for Carbon Neutral◘ Declared Intention for Carbon Neutral Tourism Sector:» Norway (by 2030)y ( y )» Scotland» Costa Rica (by 2021)

N Z l d

‘Maldives’ carbon neutral plan is not greenwash, just 

» New Zealand» Sri Lanka» Maldives (by 2020)

imperfect progress’

Guardian – 26 March 2009» Maldives (by 2020) Guardian – 26 March 2009

Concluding Messages …Concluding Messages …

‘The scientific evidence is clear ‐climate change must be considered the greatest 

challenge to sustainable tourism i h ’in the 21st century.’

Davos Declaration

if d ’t l l b l li t h

Davos Declaration

… if we don’t solve global climate change, most other sustainable tourism initiatives won’t matter much

‘Climate change is calling the ‘Climate change is calling the i ld l i ’i ld l i ’tourism world to a revolution …’tourism world to a revolution …’

Conclusion of Tourism Ministers SummitConclusion of Tourism Ministers SummitConclusion of Tourism Ministers Summit Conclusion of Tourism Ministers Summit London London –– 13 Nov. 200713 Nov. 2007

Sea Level RiseVulnerabilityDemonstrationDemonstration 

Project