Climate Change Impacts on Brazilian Agriculture to 2030 Eduardo Assad (EMBRAPA), Prof. Hilton S. Pinto (UNICAMP) Andre Nassar & Leila Harfuch (AGROICONE), Saulo Freitas (INPE ) Barbara Farinelli , World Bank, Brazil Providing evidence to guide decisions & justify investments Task Team Leader: Erick C.M. Fernandes, World Bank, Washington, DC
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Climate Change Impacts on Brazilian Agriculture to 2030
This presentation by Erik C.M. Fernandes was given at a session titled "Knowledge products and tools for sustainable landscape management in a post-2015 development agenda" at the Global Landscapes Forum in Lima, Peru, on December 6, 2014.
The forum discussed the role of knowledge products and tools and how they are used by relevant stakeholders in achieving a more sustainable management of forests and forest resources at the landscape scale and within the framework of the post-2015 agenda.
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Climate Change Impacts
on Brazilian Agriculture
to 2030
Eduardo Assad (EMBRAPA), Prof. Hilton S. Pinto (UNICAMP)
Andre Nassar & Leila Harfuch (AGROICONE), Saulo Freitas (INPE )
Barbara Farinelli , World Bank, Brazil
Providing evidence to guide decisions & justify investments
Task Team Leader: Erick C.M. Fernandes, World Bank, Washington, DC
Framework for Decision & Policy Making in the Face of Climate Impact Uncertainty
This study builds upon previous studies w new modeling and simulation + analytical tools: Key components include:
Good Data, Coupled Models, Spatial & Economic Scenarios
1) Accessed and incorporated the best available hydrometerological data in all the sub-regions in Brazil to significantly reduce the identified “climate data deficiency” of previous studies.
2) Refined climate change projections via coupling global, regional and local scale models to provide more robust climate change projections for Brazil
3) Coupled the Enhanced GCM and RCM suite of models described above with the EMBRAPA /UNICAMP Agro Zoning model and recently available, highly disaggregated land and meteorological data for a Climate-Smart Agro Zoning Model
4) Coupled the Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM) with state of the art outputs from 1, 2, and 3 (above) for an improved Climate-Sensitive BLUM to assess:
a. Climate change induced changes in supply and demand of agricultural products at a national level
b. Changes in the distribution of land use and production within Brazil for given supply/demand scenarios,
c. Economic effects on agricultural production and profitability2
Agroecological Domains & LandscapesKey for Decision Making in the Face of Climate Change
554 million ha of native vegetation
• 107 million ha of Conservation Units
• 103,5 million ha of Indigenous Land
• 274 million ha of native vegetation in private
properties (PPAs riparian and hills + Legal
Reserves)
• 69,5 m ha native remaining vegetation in PPAs
60 million ha of productive land (crops fruits, and planted forest)
*BRAMS = Brazilian developments on Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. The BRAMS system is able to incorporate aerosol effects on radiation balance and the hydrological cycle thereby helping to overcome a significant source of inconsistencies in the rainfall projections of previous studies. BRAMS has also high resolution and updated topography, land use, soil type and normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI) data sets
Corn and Beans production (x1000 tons)
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Baseline Pessimistic Optimistic BRAMS (NP)
Region 2009 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030
South 42,160 59,428 67,849 52,159 58,973 55,476 62,687 52,788 58,996
Total 307,401 657,832 707,454 695,453 706,794 718,466
Implications
Significant Projected Ag productivity declines in the absence of adaptation.
Projected Ag prices rise
Increased Ag prices means Brazilian Ag contribution to economy doubles in 2011 terms
Significantly larger price impacts if other countries & regions are less able to cope w climate change!!
Food Production at the Expense of Forests??
Study Findings - I1. This study assessed the vulnerability and impacts of climate change on
Brazilian agriculture by building on work done in the last decade in Brazil and in the LAC region. The results from this study confirm and extend the findings of pervious work that climate change is likely to have increasingly significant and mostly negative impacts on the major grain and pasture systems in Brazil.
2. In the absence of climate change, cropland is projected to increase to 17 million hectares in 2030 compared to observed area of cropland in 2009. Due to climate change impacts, however, all the scenarios simulated, project a reduction of ‘low climate risk’ cropland in 2020 and 2030. Important Spatial Info for Policy & Investments
3. In the pessimistic scenario, Brazil could have 10.6 million hectares less land allocated to agriculture in 2030 as a result of climate change with the South Region being the worst impacted losing ~ 5 million ha of ‘low climate risk’ crop land by 2030. Potential for Forest Expansion (Natural Forests, Plantations, Agroforests)? Updated Legal, Fiscal, Policy Frameworks needs work NOW!
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Ag/For Markets and Infrastructure Needs for Brazil
Freight from Sonriso to Paranagua port = $180/ton V $75-85/ton from Iowa to ports