Climate Change Early Warning Systems for Rift Valley Fever Pandemic Preparedness in Kenya Nanyingi M O Department of Public Health, Pharmacology and Toxicology University of Nairobi KENYA World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25,2012
15
Embed
Climate Change Early Warning Systems for Rift Valley Fever Pandemic Preparedness in Kenya
Climate Change Early Warning Systems for Rift Valley Fever Pandemic Preparedness in Kenya Nanyingi M O Department of Public Health, Pharmacology and Toxicology University of Nairobi KENYA. Climate Change Impacts in Kenya. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Climate Change Early Warning Systems for Rift Valley Fever Pandemic Preparedness in Kenya
Nanyingi M O Department of Public Health, Pharmacology and Toxicology
University of NairobiKENYA
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25,2012
2
Climate Change Impacts in Kenya
In 2006 and 2007, PH Burden of RVF OB resulted
in 3.4 DALYs per 1000 people and household
costs of about Ksh 10,000 (USD120)
3%GDP loss$500M/(2012)$1-2 B(2030)
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25,2012
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Disease Early Warning Systems (DEWS)
MEWS (MODIS_NDVI)MEWS (MODIS_NDVI)
Are these tools available universally and utilized adequately?
HEALTH MAPPERHEALTH MAPPER
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
RVF Contingency plans for EWS in Kenya (ongoing) Linkage with communities to monitor climatic parameters. Precipitation ,flooding and mapping of “dambos”
Remote sensing and GIS data(NDVI of 0.43-0.45/ SST by 0.5 degrees ) epidemic indicative
Community-Based Early Warning System (CB-LEWS) DVS trains communities to capture data relevant for RVF early warning.
Monitoring of vector Dynamics and virus activity in sentinel herds?
Farmer and public awareness programmes by Veterinary Communications Officer.
Community radios ,flyers and mobile phones for preparedness.
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
COMMUNICATION System Appraisal strategy Participatory message devt (FGD)Media Engagement(Radio, TV)
ONE HEALTH COORDINATION
DISEASE CONTROL Community Sentinel Surveillance Vaccinations and Vector Control
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Research: RVF Spatiotemporal Epidemiology
Participatory Epidemiology: Rural appraisal and Community EWS to RVF investigated.
Sero-monitoring of sentinel herds and Geographical risk mapping of RVF hotspots?
Trans-boundary Surveillance for secondary foci(Neighboring country)
Disease burden Analysis and predictive modeling
Decision support tools for community utilization(Risk maps, brochures, radio and video clips)
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Community Involvement Disease surveillance Committees (Animal health workers +Livestock keepers + Veterinary /Public health officers)
Community mapping of watering Points/Dams or “Dambos”
Training of trainers(TOT) on EWS
Information feedback mechanisms ( Schools, churches, village meetings)
Tran-sboundary security committees
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
RVF Monitoring and Surveillance -Community Model
Community sensitization/awareness by Syndromic surveillance (Mobile phones)
Dissemination of Information through community vernacular radio,SMS
Aanansen et al., 2009, Madder et al., 2012
e-surveillance
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Communication tools : Risk Maps of RVF in Kenya
Bett et al.,2012
Is there Geographical restriction of the Diseases?
What other factors are involved in endemicity of RVF?
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Further secondary data analysis for RVF prediction Precipitation and Temperature from the Kenya Meteorological Department/ECMWF for time series analysis (2000-2011)
Sero-prevalence and inter-epidemic estimates of RVF from the Department of Veterinary Services.
Disease burden analysis using demographics from Human National Census
Vegetative Index (NDVI) and Soil type cover for suitability of vector analysis.
Process based geographical risk modeling and Linear regression analysis for RVF distribution
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Outbreak Maps of RVF in Kenya –(1912-2010)
Bett et al.,2012
Response can be geographically targeted.
Vaccine allocation and distribution is site specific(cost saving mechanism)
Secondary foci of outbreaks in semi-urban locations.
Controlled Human and Animal migration to curb the spread of climate sensitive diseases
Post Vaccination sero-monitoring( AVID)
World Bank Expert Group_Early Actions of Reducing Climate Sensitive Diseases_Bellagio,Italy_August 21-25, 2012
Climate EWS Caveats in Kenya Lack of capacity and expertise to contextualize climate change sensitive disease predictions and scenarios.
Dysfunctional communication channels (Technological inadequacies in rural communities)