Climate Change, Biofuels, and Land Use Legacy: Trusting Computer Models to Guide Water Resources Management Trajectories Anthony Kendall Geological Sciences, Michigan State University Collaborators: David Hyndman (MSU), Bryan Pijanowski (Purdue), Deepak Ray (Purdue)
27
Embed
Climate Change, Biofuels, and Land Use Legacy: Trusting Computer Models to Guide Water Resources Management Trajectories Anthony Kendall Geological Sciences,
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Climate Change, Biofuels, andLand Use Legacy:
Trusting Computer Models to Guide Water Resources Management Trajectories
Anthony KendallGeological Sciences, Michigan State University
Collaborators: David Hyndman (MSU), Bryan Pijanowski (Purdue), Deepak Ray (Purdue)
Source: PijanowskiSources: USCB and USDA
Central question
• In response to:– Climate change– Land use change– Land use
intensification– Agricultural demand
shifts (e.g. biofuels)
How will Great Lakes water resources change during this century?
Miscanthus at Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center
Source: IPCC AR4
Summer 2100 (A1B)
We need models to answer this question
• Temperature and precipitation changes: – Regional and global climate models
• Soil moisture, streamflow, lake level changes:– Hydrologic and crop models
• Land use changes:– Land transformation and economic models
Major changes are likely in store, but what can we expect?
Answer depends on what scenarios we assume
Source: Multi-model ensemble, Annual average of monthly data, CMIP-3 database
Great Lakes Region 2005 - 2095
Consider widest range of feasible scenarios.
Which model do we choose?
Source: Multi-model ensemble average and standard deviation, annual average of monthly data, A1B scenario, CMIP-3 database
Great Lakes Region 2005 - 2095
One solution: multi-model ensemble averages
Annual temperatures forecast to rise significantly
How will these changes impact regional water resources?
• Hydrologic models must be robust to changes in both climate and land use– Many statistical models cannot be applied confidently
• New class of hydrologic models has emerged that directly simulate physical processes of both surface- and ground-water– Integrated Landscape Hydrology Model (ILHM) is one
such tool (Hyndman and Kendall, 2007; Kendall and Hyndman, in Review)
Integrated Landscape Hydrology Model (ILHM)
• Simulates nearly complete terrestrial water cycle• Hourly water fluxes calculated within each model
cell
Select ILHM fluxes
Climate and land use forecasts
• For Muskegon River Watershed (MRW) in central lower Michigan
• Average of 24 GCM outputs
• Three emissions scenarios (A1B shown)
Land use change scenarios (MRW)
• Forecast land use using the Land Tranformation Model (Pijanowski)
• Three change scenarios for 2050 (above) and 2095
Monthly groundwater recharge anomalies
• More frequent snowmelt: More late fall and winter recharge, less spring recharge
• Longer growing season: Drier summer soils, less late summer and early fall recharge
Ave
rage
Rec
harg
e A
nom
aly
(cm
)
Implications of simulated groundwater recharge changes
• More winter recharge– Higher early spring water table– Higher peak flows during spring
• Less spring recharge– Earlier decline of water table– Lower baseflow levels, longer low-flow period in
streams• Overall increased groundwater resource
– Altered seasonal availability• Agree with regional summaries
– i.e. IPCC AR4, USGCRP National Assessment
Important water quality impacts
• Increased sediment transport– Higher peak and mean flows
• Increased threat of sewer overflows– Extreme precipitation event increases
• Warmer water temperatures– Warmer air temperatures– Lower summer baseflows– Mitigated by groundwater response?
• Changes to groundwater transport of nutrients and contaminants