TDM Strategies & Climate Change NYMTC – Metro Mobility Network Meeting June 10, 2008 New York, New York Michael Grant, Principal Frank T. Mongioi, Jr., Senior Associate icfi.com © 2006 ICF International. All rights reserved.
TDM Strategies & Climate Change
NYMTC – Metro Mobility Network MeetingJune 10, 2008
New York, New York
Michael Grant, PrincipalFrank T. Mongioi, Jr., Senior Associate
icfi.com© 2006 ICF International. All rights reserved.
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Introduction – State Climate Action Plans■ Why state level approach is important
■ Can have large impacts – 34 of 75 largest GHG sources in the world are U.S. states
■ States are testing grounds for emerging policy
■ State actions can build political support at federal level
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GHGs and Transportation Sector
■ After industry, transportation is leading source of U.S. GHG emissions
■ Transportation sector accounts for 28% of GHGs nationally – much more in some states
■ Transportation is among the fastest growing sources of GHG emissions
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Tg C
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Transportation
Industrial
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-71.2
+427.3
235.4 258.1
27.9
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Transportation Residential Commercial Agriculture
U.S. GHG Emissions by Economic Sector, 1990-2006 (with Electricity distributed to End-Use Sectors)
Growth in GHG Emissions, 1990-2006 (Tg CO2 Eq.)
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Estimated Transportation Share of Total GHG Emissions by State, 2010
23%
34%
22%
23%
23%
39%
43%
47%
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AZ CO MN MT NC NM VT WA
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All other sectors Transportation
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U.S. Transportation GHG Emissions by Source, 2006
Other Aircraft
Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks
20%
Passenger Cars34%
Buses CommercialAircraft
7%
Motorcycles
LubricantsPipelinesRailShips and Boats
Light-Duty Trucks28%
Light-duty Vehicles63%
Heavy-duty Vehicles21%
Aircraft9%
Other Non-Road7%
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State Climate Actions Plans
■ Plans propose specific policies and programs for consideration by the state legislature or implementation by state agency
■ Stakeholder groups convened to develop policies aimed at meeting state emission goals
36 states have developed or are developing a climate plan
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Role of Stakeholder Groups
■ Transportation is one of several key areas for policy development
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Step-Wise Plan Process
■ 1: Develop initial statewide GHG inventories and projections■ 2: Draft a catalog of possible GHG policy options■ 3: Identify initial draft priority policy options for evaluation■ 4: Develop proposals for draft policy option design■ 5: Quantify potential GHG reduction and cost of draft policy
options■ 6: Define implementation mechanisms, related policies and
programs, and feasibility issues■ 7: Iterate to final consensus on draft policy options through
voting by plenary group■ 8: Finalize recommendations and report
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Types of Strategies Included in Plans
■ GHG emissions standards for LDVs
■ Smart growth measures
■ Clean car purchase incentives
■ Promotion of transit
■ Alternative fuels
■ Pay-as-you drive insurance
■ Non-road measures
■ Emissions reduction measures for diesel vehicles
■ HDV anti-idling measures
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Transportation Demand Management Strategies• Improving multi-modal options, including transit• Pricing strategies for fuel and driving• Pricing strategies for parking, and• Public education and outreach
Bus Photo
Bus Photo
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Effective TDM Strategies – Estimated by States
• Provision/promotion of multiple modes, including transit• Pay as You Drive Insurance (PAYD)• Commuter Benefits
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Frequency of Strategy Inclusion
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Strategy Effectiveness (examples)
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Looking Ahead
• At least nine other states are developing climate action plans• States adopting selected policy recommendations
■ WA per-capita VMT reduction goals
■ AZ clean car GHG standards
• As states and metropolitan areas gain experience, policies and quantification methods will continue to be refined and TDM may see a growing role in Climate Action Plans.
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Integrating Climate Change into Metropolitan Transportation Planning
• Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP)
Long-range plan for regional transportation system20+ year planning horizonFiscally constrainedUpdated at least every 4 years in air quality nonattainment & maintenance areas, 5 years elsewhere
• Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) are beginning to:■ Incorporate goals and objectives that
relate to climate change
■ Incorporate GHG reduction strategies
■ Examine potential impacts of and adaptation to climate change
The Metropolitan Transportation Planning Process: Key Issues A Briefing Notebook for Transportation Decisionmakers, Officials, and StaffFHWA and FTA
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Climate Change Potentially Impacts Transportation Infrastructure
1. Charts do not include periodic hurricane storm surge, e.g., Isabel 10+ feet.2. Reference: DOT The Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure,
Federal Research Partnership Workshop, October 1-2, 2002, plus ICF follow-on East Coast study
Current Sea Level
1.5 Meter Rise
Naval Facilities
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Integrating Climate Change in Metropolitan Transportation Plans
Climate Change Mitigation in:
Climate Change Adaptation Energy Conservation/Alt. Fuels
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MPO RegionEugene, OR S x x x xMissoula, MT SSanta Fe, NM SAlbany, NY M xGrand Rapids, MI M x x xPortland, OR M x x x x x x xSalt Lake City M xBaltimore L x x xChicago L x xDenver L x x x xHouston-Galveston L x x xPhiladelphia LSacramento L x x x xSan Diego L x x x x x xSan Francisco L x x xSeattle LSouthern California L x x x xWashington DC L
in: in:
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Example: Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), San Francisco Bay Area
• Developing Transportation 2035 Plan• Includes specific measurable objectives (considered “stretch” targets)
for each of its key principles – one relates to climate change• Analyzing scenarios to assess which options meet the target
From: MTC Memorandum to Planning Committee, January 2008.
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Looking Ahead
• Potential increase in attention to TDM due to convergence of factors, of which climate change is one
• Related social/economic factors motivating TDM interest
– High gas prices, energy security– Increased traffic congestion– Funding limitations – Highway Trust Fund running out…– Public health concerns / obesity– Increased emphasis on efficient system management &
operations (pricing, etc.)– Quality of life issues / sustainability