CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AMONG ...

Master’s thesisGeography, 45 Credits

Department of Physical Geography

Climate change adaptation strategies among farmers in the Gujrat and Jhelum

districts, Pakistan

Sanna Saleemi

GA 322016

Preface

This Master’s thesis is Sanna Saleemi’s degree project in Geography at the Department of

Physical Geography, Stockholm University. The Master’s thesis comprises 45 credits (one

and a half term of full-time studies).

Supervisor has been Håkan Berg at the Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm

University. Examiner has been Stefano Manzoni at the Department of Physical Geography,

Stockholm University.

The author is responsible for the contents of this thesis.

Stockholm, 13 June 2016

Steffen Holzkämper

Director of studies

Abstract

Climate change imposes major threats for farming communities in South Asia as increased

temperatures and changes in precipitation impact yields. Local farmers in Pakistan are facing

similar challenges and the country has already been highly affected by climate change.

Further, local knowledge is increasingly being recognized as an important complement to

quantitative climate data. There is a need to go beyond the quantitative results in climate

change research, and ground proof these data by including local experiences. Many farmers

around the world are experiencing climate change and are responding to these with various

adaptation strategies. This study examines climate change in the Gujrat and Jhelum districts

in the Punjab province in Pakistan, how local farmers perceive climate change and what

adaptation strategies local farmers have implemented. The study also intends to examine the

main constraints to adaptation by incorporating expert views to analyze issues and gaps in the

system. The results show increased temperatures and decreased precipitation in the study

region between 1975-2014. Farmer surveys indicate that a majority of the farmers perceive

these changes and have applied different adaptation strategies as a response. These strategies

mainly consist of: changing planting/sowing time and increased irrigation using groundwater.

A third form of response to smaller yields and decreased income was alternative off- farm

jobs, as an additional income. Expert interviews reveal contradictions of implementation of

climate change adaptation policies along with contrasting responses to the farmers regarding

institutional efforts to support the local farmers. These results show how lack of institutional

support is hindering effective, successful and long-term adaptation for these farming

communities.

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Table of Contents

1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 5

2. Objectives .......................................................................................................................... 7

3. Methodology .................................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Study area ................................................................................................................................ 8 3.2 Sampling and data collection ........................................................................................... 9

3.2.1 Climate data ................................................................................................................................... 9 3.2.2 Questionnaires .......................................................................................................................... 10 3.2.3 Semi- structured interviews ................................................................................................ 10

4. Results ............................................................................................................................. 12 4.1 Climate data ..........................................................................................................................12

4.1.1 Temperature changes............................................................................................................. 12 4.1.2 Precipitation changes ............................................................................................................. 14

4.2 Farmer surveys ...................................................................................................................15 4.2.1 Kunjah- irrigated region ..............................................................................................15

4.2.1.1 Perceived climate changes................................................................................................ 15 4.2.1.2 Implications of perceived climate changes ................................................................ 18 4.2.1.3 Adaptation strategies to climate change..................................................................... 20

4.2.2 Chan Baila & Kiri Afghana- Rain fed region ...........................................................21 4.2.2.1 Perceived climate change .................................................................................................. 21 4.2.2.2 Implications of perceived climate changes ................................................................ 24 4.2.2.3 Adaptation strategies to climate change..................................................................... 26

5. Expert interviews ..................................................................................................................27 5.1 Global Impact Studies Center (GCISC) ................................................................................ 27 5.2 Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) .......................................................... 27 5.3 International Water Management Institute (IWMI) ..................................................... 28 5.4 Mangla dam .................................................................................................................................... 29 5.5 Ministry of Water and Power.................................................................................................. 29 5.6 Irrigation Department Punjab ................................................................................................ 29

6. Discussion ...................................................................................................................... 30 6.1 Climate change in Gujrat and Jhelum ..........................................................................30 6.2 Famers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation .......................................31 6.3 Similarities and differences between the study areas ..........................................33

6.3.1 Differences .................................................................................................................................. 33 6.3.2 Similarities .................................................................................................................................. 34

6.4 Experts’ comments .............................................................................................................35 6.5 Limitations ............................................................................................................................36

7. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 37

References .......................................................................................................................... 39

Appendix ............................................................................................................................. 43

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1. Introduction

Since the 1950’s a global warming trend has been observed caused by increased greenhouse

gas emissions due to anthropogenic activities. In many regions climate change has not only

caused increased temperatures but also had major impacts on precipitation patterns and

glacier melt, affecting water availability (IPCC, 2013). Further the Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that climate change has had more negative impacts on

crop yields than positive (IPCC, 2014). As agricultural practices primarily depend on the

climatic conditions, changes in: temperature, precipitation and climatic extremes could have

major implications for farmers. South Asia’s heavy economic dependence on agriculture

makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, and the local farmers most dependent on

the climate for their livelihoods face the most severe challenges (IFAD, 2010; Vermeulen et

al., 2012). Among the South Asian countries Pakistan is one of the most affected by climate

change as it has been hit hard by both droughts and severe flooding events the past 20 years

(Kreft et al., 2016). Pakistan also has an agro-based economy highly dependent on its

agricultural production (Iqbal et al., 2009a). According to IPCC the number of cold days and

nights have decreased, while the number of warm days and nights have increased globally

(IPCC, 2013), and such temperature changes have been noted to have negative impacts for

Pakistan’s agricultural productivity (Iqbal et al., 2016).

The Punjab province is the most populated province in Pakistan and all five tributary rivers

(Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) to the Indus River pass through the region. The

province is also home to one of the largest irrigation systems in the world; therefore Punjab

has an extensive agriculture with several different agricultural products (FAO, 2014). Two

dams mainly regulate this irrigation system; the Tarbela and the Mangla dam, where the

Tarbela is predominantly fed by glacier melt water and the Mangla by the seasonal monsoon

(Immerzeel et al., 2010; Laghari et al., 2012). The Jhelum River is the second largest tributary

to the Indus and the upper parts of its basin drains into the Mangla dam (Mahmood et al.,

2015). The northern areas of the Punjab comprise of both rain- fed and irrigated agriculture.

Gujrat is one of the most fertile districts in the province with about 77 % of its total land area

cultivated, and a majority of this area is irrigated by the irrigation system through canals (66,

5 %) (FAO, 2014). However its neighboring district to the west, Jhelum district, has most of

its cultivated land rain- fed. The cultivated area makes up 46,7 % of the total district, of which

38,2 % is rain- fed (ibid). Due to the river Jhelum, which runs through the Jhelum district the

soils adjoining the river are generally fertile and good for agriculture (ibid). As the farmers

are the primary stakeholders in Pakistan’s agriculture, climate change imposes a major threat

to their livelihoods (Abid et al., 2015). Besides an intensive agriculture the province has also

developed industries and several hydropower projects to provide its growing population with

energy. Hence, there are many different stakeholders using the surface waters in different

ways in the Punjab province. However according to models from studies of future projections

from the Jhelum basin, temperatures will increase and precipitation patterns in the area

change as a result of climate change (Mahmood & Babel, 2014; Mahmood et al., 2015).

Studies have also shown how these future climate changes will impact water availability and

food production in the area negatively (Zhu et al., 2013).

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Adger et al., (2005) argues that adaptation is required to cope with the climate change

impacts, which have already occurred and will have greater effects in the future. According to

the IPCC (2014) adaptation is: “ The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and

its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit

beneficial opportunities. In some natural system, human intervention may facilitate

adjustment to expected climate and its effects” (IPCC, 2014). Climatic change is nothing

new; societies and individuals have adjusted their behavior to live with such changes before.

However current predictions of future climate change conditions have triggered these

adaptation responses. These adaptation measures can be witnessed at many levels of society:

individual, organization or government level (Adger et al., 2005). However, an adaptation

strategy implemented at one level might not be beneficial at all levels, nor for all stakeholders

within the same level, this is considered to be maladaptation. This kind of adaptation is not

sustainable for the region as a whole. In other words maladaptation is considered to be actions

towards adaptation that lead to increasing risks and vulnerability to other members or parts of

society (Noble et al., 2014). Hence, it has been argued for the need to observe adaptation at

different levels of society in the same way climate change has been observed and studied

(Adger et al., 2005). Zhu et al., (2013) presents adaptation strategies to climate change

impacts in the Indus basin, these are mainly: more research on agriculture, increased water

use efficiency within the agricultural sector and more reservoirs for water storage. However it

is also highlighted that water storage cannot solely improve crop production in the region.

Scientific measurements and data collection are the bases of our understanding of climate

change and global warming. However the importance of incorporating local knowledge into

national adaptation plans is getting increasingly recognized as an important addition to

scientific knowledge (Adger et al., 2009; Chanza & De Wit, 2016; FAO, 2009; Mercer et al.,

2009; Nyong et al., 2007; Orlove et al., 2010; IPCC, 2014; Riedling & Berks, 2001). For

instance a study of local farmers of the Sahel desert has shown how the local population have

adapted to the increased occurrence of droughts. These farmers have accumulated knowledge

about the climatic conditions over several decades, however this knowledge is not being

transferred into national adaptation policies (Nyong et al., 2007). IPCC also points out that it

is of importance for policymakers to incorporate local and indigenous knowledge to develop

effective adaptation strategies that are both cost-effective and sustainable (IPCC, 2014).

Further Pakistan is one of the countries where the lack of studies on local knowledge has been

highlighted, compared to the other Indo- Gagnetic countries (CGIAR, 2011).

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2. Objectives The above section presents the settings for this study addressing climate change and

adaptation strategies of local farmers in Pakistan. It has been argued that; the region is

severely affected by climate change, that farmers are most affected by this change and the

importance to adapt. The purpose of this study is to analyze the local climate change of three

villages located in Jhelum and Gujrat district, and to understand how local farmers are

experiencing it. Further the study aims to identify which adaptation strategies local farmers

have adopted, and how the villages differ regarding experiences and implemented strategies.

Lastly experts’ insights where incorporated to deeper analyze issues of climate change and

adaptation in the region. More specifically this study intends to investigate these five

questions:

How can climate change be observed in Gujrat and Jhelum districts between 1975-

2014?

How are local farmers experiencing climate change and how has it impacted their

livelihoods?

What kind of adaptation strategies have the farmers adopted?

How do the perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies differ between

the farmers with irrigated fields (Gujrat) and the farmers with rain- fed fields

(Jhelum)?

What are the main constraints farmers are facing regarding climate change

adaptation?

3. Methodology This study has an interdisciplinary character regarding methodology where both quantitative

climate data has been obtained along with semi- quantitative data from surveys, and lastly

qualitative data from conducted interviews. To answer the research questions of this study

meteorological data was obtained to analyze local climate change. Furthermore, surveys with

local farmers were conducted along with expert interviews at organizations and governmental

institutions. This provided the opportunity to compare the quantitative climate data with

actual experiences of the farmers and by incorporating expert interviews the issues could be

understood and analyzed from an additional perspective.

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3.1 Study area This study was conducted in the Gujrat and Jhelum districts located in the northern parts of

the Punjab province in Pakistan (Figure 1). All major rivers originating from the Himalayas

pass through the area, which is also home to one of the worlds largest irrigation systems (Yu

et al., 2013, p. 17). This irrigation system enables the province to have the most cultivated

land in the country with over 3000 irrigated channels. These channels irrigate almost 50 % of

the total land area of the province, while around 8 % of the area consists of rain- fed fields

(FAO, 2014). Pakistan can be divided into five different climatic zones, where the Punjab

province falls into the category of sub-mountainous/lowland area. The region receives a

majority of its rainfall during the summer monsoon, which peaks between July- September.

Especially the northern part of the Punjab is under strong influence of the monsoon (Salma et

al., 2012). Further, cold winters and hot summers characterize the lowland climate with an

annual temperature average between 18-24 ℃ and annual rainfall between 906- 1195 mm.

Within the Köppen classification the region of this study falls into BShw, which translates

into a semi-arid Steppe climate with hot summers and dry winters (Sarfaraz et al., 2014).

Figure 1. Map showing location of study sites in Jhelum and Gujrat district (Esri, 2014).

Prior to data collection in the field the study regions were selected by analyzing a land cover

atlas over the Punjab to identify suitable regions (FAO, 2014). From the land cover atlas three

villages where identified and chosen as suitable locations for this study. Two of these where

located in the floodplain zone in the Jhelum district (Chan Baila & Kiri Afghana) and the

third in the neighbor district Gujrat (Kunjah) as shown in Figure 1. The agricultural fields in

the villages in Jhelum are rain-fed while the village in Gujrat has irrigated fields, allowing a

comparison between the results from farmers using different agricultural practices to be

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made. The two floodplain villages in Jhelum district are located just downstream of the

Mangla dam, which is the only dam regulating and diverting the river Jhelums waters. Kunjah

receives all its irrigation water through canals that originate from the Jhelum River.

Chan Baila is the smallest of the three villages and is located in the floodplain surrounded by

the Jhelum River. The river is filled with water mainly during the flood season or when the

Mangla dam releases water, in other cases the river is dry. This village is also characterized

by severe flooding events and also is the poorest of all three. Even though Kiri Afghana is

also located in the floodplain and this village also has experienced flooding events the farmers

of this village had a better economy, and therefore better resources such as tube wells and

boats during flooding season to pass through the river. Lastly Kunjah was the village mostly

dependent on the irrigation system for its water resources and due to its location not effected

by flooding. Also these farmers had the financial resources to pump groundwater for

irrigation of their fields themselves.

3.2 Sampling and data collection The sampling and data collection was divided into three parts for this study, which consist of

different methodologies. First of all raw data was analyzed to understand how climate change

is affecting this particular region. Secondly interviews in the form of questionnaires were

conducted with farmers from the three villages, and lastly experts where interviewed with a

semi- structured model. All three approaches are presented in more detail below:

3.2.1 Climate data

To understand the local climate changes in the study area raw data was obtained from

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for the last 40 years. Data of precipitation and

temperature between 1975-2014 was analyzed and compared with the farmers’ perceptions.

To analyze the gathered data and calculate the statistical significance of the trends a statistical

computer program (STATA 12) was used in close collaboration with a statistician. The data

was collected from Jhelum meteorological station, as it is located closest to all three villages:

nearest Kiri Afghana (7 km) and Chan Baila (13 km) and furthest from Kunjah (45 km).

Data of monthly and annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures were analyzed along

with average precipitation amount. The data is presented in graphs to show statistical trends

together with the calculated P-values in order to estimate the statistical significance of these

trends. A P-value allows us to determine whether a (positive or negative) linear relationship is

present and if it is statistically significant. This provides more information than solely

analyzing R2- values, which only indicate how well the values fit in a line in average

(Townend, 2002). A P-value ≤ 0,05 shows a significant correlation between the two types of

measurement (ibid). For these data a 95 % confidence interval was used to estimate the

statistical significance, which indicates that the null hypothesis is rejected with 95 %

confidence and the null hypothesis is that no trend occurs.

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3.2.2 Questionnaires The primary data for this study consists of questionnaires (for details see Appendix)

conducted with local farmers from the three villages, which were collected during the month

of January 2016. However, two of the villages’ data was put together because of the similarity

in character in region and results, these where the two villages in the floodplain (Chan Baila

and Kiri Afghana). Thereby a total of 15 farmers in the floodplain villages and 7 farmers in

the irrigated region were interviewed (Table 1). The farmers were interviewed using a

structured questionnaire to collect semi- quantitative data. However farmers where also

allowed expressing themselves more freely in some open ended questions, which contributed

with data of a more qualitative character. The questionnaire was developed based on similar

studies along with commonly shared research principals (Abid et al., 2015; Balama et al.,

2013; Bryman, 2012; Clifford et al., 2010; Uddin et al., 2014). Myself conducted all the

farmer interviews in the local language and dialect Urdu/ Punjabi, which allowed for further

reflections to be made regarding how the participants responded and minimized mistakes that

could occur with an intermediate.

3.2.3 Semi- structured interviews Lastly expert interviews were conducted to add further dimension to this study. By adding

expert opinions and understandings of climate change and adaptation strategies, gaps of

interest and knowledge could be identified. Experts from different institutes and organizations

with insights on the issue where chosen and contacted prior arriving to Pakistan. Using a

semi-structured interview model eight experts at six different departments were interviewed.

The interviews were recorded and transcribed to be able to analyze the main points, views and

patterns of the experts. Also in this case I conducted the interviews in the local language

Urdu/ Punjabi, which minimized the risks of mistakes regarding interpretations that could

have occurred with a translator.

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Table 1. Characteristics of respondents in the villages of Jhelum and Gujrat district.

Chan Baila

(Jhelum district) Kiri Afghana

(Jhelum district) Kunjah

(Gujrat district)

Nr. Of respondents 10 5 7

Frequency (%)

Age group: 20-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61 and above

10 10 50 20 10

20 80

43 14 14 29

Sex: Male Female

60 40

100

100

Level of education: None Primary Secondary Post-secondary

40 60

100

14 57 29

Farm land size (Acer): 0-5 6-10 10 and above

90 10

60 40

43 29 29

Crops grown: Wheat Wheat, Millet, Sorghum

Wheat, rice, sugarcane

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4. Results

4.1 Climate data The climate data collected from Jhelums meteorological station shows a change in both

temperature and precipitation over the last 40 years. Regarding temperatures both minimum

and maximum temperatures are showing significant positive trends over the years with

increasing temperatures, and the annual precipitation amount is showing a decreasing trend in

the area. Three different sets of climate data are presented in the graphs below: mean

minimum temperature; mean maximum temperature and annual precipitation.

4.1.1 Temperature changes The annual mean temperatures recorded at the meteorological station shows a general trend

towards warmer temperatures (Figure 2 & 3). Between 1975- 2014 the annual mean minimum

temperature has increased by 0,03 ℃ per year (Figure 2). The P-value (<0,001) for this linear

trend shows that there is a significant positive correlation between years and increasing mean

minimum temperatures.

Figure 2. Graph showing the annual mean minimum temperatures observed between 1975-

2014 with linear equation and trend line displayed. P-value: < 0,001.

y = 0,0263x - 35,533R² = 0,29

15,5

16

16,5

17

17,5

18

18,5

19

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Tem

per

atu

re (

oC

)

Year

Annual mean minimum temp.

annual mean

Linjär (annualmean)

13

The annual mean maximum temperature in Jhelum did not initially show a statistically

significant trend as the P- value was 0,07, and P > 0,05 indicate no significant correlations.

However there are some points in the data set that differ more then others, such as the mean

annual value for 1997 (Figure 3). During 1997-1998 the largest El Nino event in history took

place. This extreme event impacted the global climate and caused several unusual climate

events around the world. One such climate event was extreme drought in Indonesia, which

caused widespread fires. The secondary effect associated to this El Niño event where hence

less incoming solar radiation due to a large amount of haze created by the Indonesian fires

(Byron & Shepard, 1998; The Diplomat, 2015; NOAA). This could thereby explain lower

temperature over Jhelum during 1997, and as this could be seen as an unusual event that

deviates from normal this data point was removed. By removing the 1997 data point the P-

value changed from 0,07 to 0,04, which then gives a statistically significant trend and shows

an average increase by 0,02℃ per year. Other studies on climate change from the region have

also explained abrupt changes in data by applying years of La Nina events to understand these

more rare occasions (Jahangir et al., 2016).

Figure 3. Graph showing the annual mean maximum temperatures observed between 1975-

2014 with linear equation and trend line displayed. P-value: 0,071; P-value with removed data

point (1997): 0,040.

y = 0,0178x - 4,9942R² = 0,0835

28,5

29

29,5

30

30,5

31

31,5

32

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Tem

per

atu

re (

oC

)

Year

Annual mean maximum temp.

Annual mean

Linjär (Annualmean)

1997

14

4.1.2 Precipitation changes The annual average precipitation per year shows an overall decreasing trend between 1975-

2014, in average decreasing by 5,7 mm each year (Figure 4). The P-value for this graph is

0,03 and thereby shows a statistically significant trend.

Figure 4. Graph showing annual amount of precipitation between 1975-2014 with linear

equation and trend line displayed. P-value: 0,034.

y = -5,7257x + 12326R² = 0,1129

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

Year

Annual precipitation

"Annualprecipitation"

Linjär ("Annualprecipitation")

15

4.2 Farmer surveys

4.2.1 Kunjah- irrigated region The farmer surveys from Kunjah showed that a majority of the interviewed farmers are both

experiencing climate change in different forms and adapting to this change. However the

farmers responses on how climate is changing are somewhat divided in this area. Further all

of the farmers also mentioned the need for support to keep up their farming practices with the

changing climate. The different parts of the questionnaire treating the farmers’ perceptions of

climate change, what implications this change has had and how they have adapted are

presented in three parts below.

4.2.1.1 Perceived climate changes The results from the first part of the questionnaire addressing climate change conducted in

Kunjah revealed that 86 % of the farmers have experienced some kind of climatic change

over their lifetime. Although a majority of the farmers have experienced a change in climate,

their perceptions regarding in what way differ.

Regarding experiences in changes in temperature and precipitation the perceptions among the

interviewed farmers differ. According to 57 % of the farmers the precipitation in the region

had decreased, however the opposite was expressed by 43 % who felt it had increased. The

perceptions regarding temperature are also somewhat scattered as 57 % of the farmers have

felt an increase, 28 % a decrease and 14 % responded that there has been no change (Figure

5). Similarly the perceptions regarding unpredictable rainfall and changes in monsoon are

somewhat differing. Unpredictable rainfall was experienced to have increased by 43 %, while

another 43 % felt there has been no change in this climatic event. However 57 % of the

farmers agreed that the monsoon had decreased in length and intensity, 28 % responded it had

not changed and 14 % felt it had decreased (Figure 6).

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Figure 5. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in precipitation and temperature.

Figure 6. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in unpredictable rainfall and

monsoon.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Highly increased increased no change decresed highly decreased

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

Preceptions

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events

Precipitation

Temperature

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Highly increased increased no change decresed highly decreased

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

Preceptions

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events

Unpredicdeblerainfall

Changes inmonsoon

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Regarding the duration of the summer and winter seasons, the responses from the interviewed

farmers were the most coherent of all the options of climatic events brought up in the

questionnaire. A total of 83 % indicated a decrease/highly decrease in winter season and 83 %

indicated an increase/highly increase in summer season (Figure 7). According to the farmers

this change was both in the intensity and length of the season. Making seasonal changes the

climatic event where most interviewee shared the same experience.

Figure 7. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in duration of summer and winter

season shown in percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Highly increased increased no change decresed highly decreased

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

Preceptions

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events

durationsummer season

duration winterseason

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4.2.1.2 Implications of perceived climate changes

The results from the second part of the questionnaire, addressing implications of climate

change revealed that most of the farmers (71 %) felt they had been negatively affected by

climate change (Figure 8). All of the interviewed farmers of Kunjah experienced that water

availability has decreased and that weeds and insects have increased in their fields (Figure 9).

In contrast the responses for annual yields and income differed more, where 43 % of the

farmers felt that annual yields and incomes had increased while 57 % felt the income had

decreased. However all of the respondents agreed that expenses in daily life had increased

(Figure 10).

Figure 8. Proportion of farmers’ responses on how climate change has had impacts on their

daily lives

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Very positively Positively No effect Negativily Very negatively

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

How have these changes affected your livelihood and well-being?

19

The local farmers from Kunjah, who rely on the irrigation system as their main source of

water for their agriculture, also expressed concerns regarding the canal water. The farmers

explained how the water availability had decreased over the years and how this resulted in an

increased use of groundwater for irrigation (Figure 9 & Table 2):

“We need to compensate the water from the canals with groundwater, because we only get

water through the canals 6 months. We have built tube wells ourselves, but the government

comes and checks and in some cases shuts them down” Male 35-year old farmer Kunjah.

Figure 9. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in weeds & insects together with

water availability shown in percent

Figure 10. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in annual yields, income from

farming and expenses in daily life.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Increased No change Decreased Don't know

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

Preceptions

Precived implications in daily life

Water availability

Weeds & insects

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Increased No change Decreased Don't know

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

Preceptions

Precived implications in daily life

Annual yields (wheat)

Income from farming

Expenses daily life

20

4.2.1.3 Adaptation strategies to climate change The last part of the questionnaire addresses what kind of adaptation strategies the farmers

have adopted in response to these climatic changes and impacts on their livelihoods. All of

the interviewed farmers of Kunjah responded that they had adapted to the changes

experienced in their daily lives. Further the farmers reflected on what kind of strategies they

had used to adapt to the situation, which showed that most of the respondents had increased

irrigation on their fields due to less water availability. The second most important adaptation

strategy was change in planting and sowing time, however some also indicated they had

looked for alternative jobs besides farming to make a living (Table 2). All of the respondents

felt positive towards the possibility of receiving support to enhance their farming practices in

a changing climate. However, 100 % also responded that no organizations or governmental

institutions had approached them to offer any kind of (technical, financial, educational)

support to sustain their adaptation practices or to improve farming practices. Some farmers

also indicated they had approached the local agriculture department regarding support in

some matters, but without any success.

Table 2. Adaptation strategies among seven farmers in Kunjah.

Strategies % Of farmers indicating that they have responded to

negatively affected livelihoods

Increased use of

irrigation

86 %

Finding off farm

job

28%

Technological

fixes

14 %

Other: Changing

planting time

43 %

21

4.2.2 Chan Baila & Kiri Afghana- Rain fed region Farmer interviews were also conducted in two villages along the floodplain zones of the River

Jhelum in the Jhelum district, where the farmers have rain- fed agriculture unlike the farmers

from Kunjah. All of the farmers from this region had experienced climate change. A majority

furthermore agreed on how the climate had changed regarding to temperature and

precipitation in the region. Further all of the interviewed farmers expressed they had adapted

to the changing climate. Down below three different sections of the questionnaires with the

farmers are presented, similarly to the above section with results from Kunjah.

4.2.2.1 Perceived climate change The first part of the questionnaire regarding the experienced climate change showed that all

the interviewed farmers from the area agreed that they have experienced an overall change in

the climate during their lifetime. A majority (73 %) of these farmers expressed this change as

an increasing temperature and a total of 87 % perceived decreasing precipitation in the region

(Figure 11). This was expressed as a big concern from some farmers:

“We need rain for our crops, change in temperature and rainfall will effect our well- being”

Male 38- year old farmer, Kiri Afghana.

Figure 11. Proportion responses of perceived changes in precipitation and temperature shown

in percent.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Highlyincreased

increased no change decresed highlydecreased

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

Preceptions

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events

Precipitation

Temperature

22

Most farmers (73 %) also perceive that flooding events have highly increased (Figure 12),

which in this specific region has been a major cause for decreasing the area of farmland as

floods have damaged much of the farmer’s fields. However the farmers of Kunjah did never

experience flooding events, because of the geographical location of the village and the

regulation of the water flow in the canal system. The farmers living in the floodplain villages

expressed several concerns and thoughts regarding the flooding events:

“Our parents and grandparents did not witness any flooding events except one in 1929, but

we are witnessing more frequent intense flooding events the last 30 years. When the floods

come now they are too strong to swim through” Male 47- year old farmer Kiri Afghana

“The floodwater brings nutrients to the ground and makes our soils fertile” Male 45- year old

farmer Kiri Afghana

“The most urgent need in our village is to build bridges, so we could cross the water during

flooding and boats to use as transportation” Male 65-year old famer Chan Baila

Figure 12. Proportion responses of perceived changes in flooding and drought occurrence

shown in percent.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Highlyincreased

increased no change decresed highlydecreased

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

Preceptions

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events

Occurance flood

Occurance drought

23

As these farmers are dependent on rainwater for their crops a majority had also reflected on

changing rain patterns, which had resulted in much more unpredictable rains (73%) (Figure

13). Another common perception among the respondents on perceived climate changes where

warmer and shorter winters and hotter and longer summers. A total of 73 % responded that

the duration of the summer season had increased and 60 % responded winter season had

decreased (Figure 14).

Figure 13. Proportion responses of perceived changes in unpredictable rainfall and monsoon

shown in percent.

Figure 14. Proportion responses of perceived changes in duration of summer and winter

season shown in percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Highlyincreased

increased no change decresed highlydecreased

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

Preceptions

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events

Unpredicdeblerainfall

Changes inmonsoon

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Highlyincreased

increased no change decresed highlydecreased

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

Preceptions

Preceptions of changes in specific climatic events

duration summerseason

duration winterseason

24

4.2.2.2 Implications of perceived climate changes For the second part of the questionnaire about 85 % of the interviewed farmers indicated that

these climate changes had impacted their livelihoods and well being in a very negative way

(Figure 15).

Figure 15. Proportion of farmers indicating how climate change has had impacts on their

daily lives

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Verypositively

Positively No effect Negativily Verynegatively

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

How have these changes affected your livelihood and well-being?

25

More specifically the farmers expressed these impacts to be increased weeds and insects in

their fields (93 %) along with decreased water availability (67 %) (Figure 16). This has lead

to smaller yields and less income from farming. Not only did a majority of the farmers’ feel

that their income from farming had decreased (86 %) but also that other expenses in their

daily lives had increased (93 %) (Figure 17).

Figure 16. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in weeds & insects together with

water availability shown in percent.

Figure 17. Proportion of responses on perceived changes in annual yields, income from

farming and expenses in daily life.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Increased No change Decreased Don't know

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

Preceptions

Precived implications in daily life

Water availability

Weeds & insects

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Increased No change Decreased Don't know

Re

spo

nd

en

ts (

%)

Preceptions

Precived implications in daily life

Annual yields (wheat)

Income from farming

Expenses in daily life

26

4.2.2.3 Adaptation strategies to climate change For the third and final part of the questionnaire all the respondents interviewed in Chan Baila

and Kiri Afghana expressed they had adapted to experienced changes in one-way or another.

The most common adaptation strategy among the farmers was finding off farm jobs to

compensate for the low farming income. Other adaptation strategies regarded change in

planting and cropping time and increased irrigation. Among these farmers there was also 7 %

who had developed their own biogas production as an effort to decrease daily expenses (Table

3). None of the farmers from these villages had received any support from any organization or

governmental institution regarding sustaining any form of adaptation strategies at the farm.

Nevertheless all of the interviewed farmers in this area indicated the need of support

(technical, financial, educational) regarding adaptation strategies and farming practices.

Table 3. Adaptation strategies among 15 farmers in the floodplain villages of Jhelum.

Strategies % Of farmers indicating that they have responded to

negatively affected livelihoods

Increased use of

irrigation

27 %

Integrated

farming system

7%

Finding off farm

job

80 %

Technological

fixes

13 %

Other: Changing

planting time

33 %

27

5. Expert interviews The last part of the results for this study consists of expert interviews at five different

governmental institutions and one non- governmental international organization. All the

experts shared their views and knowledge regarding climate change and adaptation strategies

in the region. A majority of these stakeholders raised concerns regarding future impacts of

climate change in the region and highlighted the need to increase adaptation. In the sections

below the main views and perceptions of the experts from each institute/ organization are

presented.

5.1 Global Impact Studies Center (GCISC)

GCISC started as an impulse to initiate climate change research in Pakistan and today works

under the Ministry of Climate Change for the government as their body of research. The

center works with three core areas: Climatology, water resources and agriculture. During the

interview the head of all three sections were present and responded to interview questions

closest to their expertise.

According to the experts at GCISC climate change is a reality in Pakistan and has had several

impacts on the agriculture sector in the country. There has been an increase in extreme events,

both flooding and drought events, the past 15 years according to research at the center. The

researchers also pointed out that the temperature increase in Pakistan will be higher than the

global average and will lead to an increasing demand of water for crops, which has already

increased by 5-7 % since the 1960’s. For the floodplain regions around Jhelum there are

specifically concerns about changes in monsoon pattern as the river is mainly fed during this

season of the year (70%). However glacial melt does contribute to the river as well and an

increase or change in melting season would also affect the river flows.

Regarding adaptation strategies the experts considered it to be twofold, both from a local and

governmental perspective. From the local farmers perspective the realization of climate

change among farmers is occurring by their own experiences, and more specifically the

affects it has on their yields. This has triggered adaptation in the form of responses to their

experiences, such as changes in planting and sowing time. From the government’s side a

climate change policy has been developed with the main purpose to mainstream climate

change adaptation strategies to the sectorial policies. According to the experts the strategies

involve educating the farmers in: suitable crops, fertilizers, rain harvesting and appropriate

sowing times.

5.2 Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) SDPI is a research-based institute, which serves as a source of expertise for policy analysis

and development. The main purpose is to provide research within social, economic and

environmental aspects of sustainable development and highlight issues for the key

stakeholders for adaptation and policy interventions.

Drought and extreme floods are the results of climate change and have been the major reasons

for migration among farmers in Pakistan. As drought affects agricultural productivity and the

28

farmers’ yields negatively they migrate to cities or even abroad to look for alternative jobs,

this is what some of the institutes research show. However during the interview it was also

stressed that it was not solely the impacts of climate change that had caused an increase in

migration among the farmers, small pieces of agricultural land was another major factor

contributing to this trend as the yields are to small to make a living. From the experts point of

view this was a sign of the farmers being financially resilient to climate change because they

were able to switch livelihoods to make additional incomes.

Migration among farmers to find other means to make a livelihood according to some of

SDPI’s research seems to be common. Regarding adaptation from a top-down perspective,

according to the expert, the main issue is the governments’ priorities: “There are climate

change policies, but these need financing to be implemented, and there is no financing”. The

solution for this was pointed out to be financial and technological support from developed

countries, as it is countries such as Pakistan that are going to be hit the hardest by climate

change.

5.3 International Water Management Institute (IWMI) IWMI is a scientific research organization and a member of the CGIAR partnership

addressing agricultural research for development. The focus of IWMI in Pakistan is on the

irrigation system and issues of governance and irrigation bureaucracy.

At IWMI the main concerns about the Jhelum River were not the impacts of climate change

but rather about dams, and the current discussions about constructing more dams. Another

major concern regarding IWMI was regarding the very low water efficiency in the irrigation

system, and the farmers using flood irrigation where most of the water evaporates: “Actually

the problem is that we are talking about constructing more dams…. We have to restore our

rivers, we have to restore our river ecology we don’t need to construct more dams, and we

need to increase the efficiency of water use”. The importance of the wetlands was highlighted

and how migratory birds have stopped coming since the area of wetlands has decreased.

According to IWMI the solution lies in bringing back the river ecosystems by dismantling

dams and for this both local people and politicians need to be educated about the importance

of healthy ecosystems and impacts of climate change. As previous experts have mentioned

also IWMI highlights the issues of implementation: “ We have all these institutions and

departments, but they are not practically working”. Another issue pointed out was the lack of

cooperation between different institutions, as all of them work within their own field and have

separate measurements for the same things: “Every authority works within their field without

any dialogue with others and even though they are using the same type of data they have their

own databases, which causes confusion. How are politicians supposed to make good decision

when they don’t have one result?”

29

5.4 Mangla dam The experts at Mangla dam expressed concerns regarding the dam’s capacity to deal with

climate change and an increased inflow of water to the reservoir: “We don’t have enough

storage capacity”. In their opinion more dams would need to be constructed in order to deal

with more intense rains and increased melting from the Himalayas. During the flood seasons

a flood mitigation committee decides how the water should be released and this will first

ensure the safety of the dam and secondly go through important infrastructures that might be

at risk. The water is then regulated to prevent any risks for the dam or other important

infrastructures downstream. The downstream districts are then informed 5-6 hours before

water is released through the river and they pass on the information to nearby villages

according to the experts at the dam. Like several of the other experts also the ones at Mangla

dam pointed out the political weakness “We have authorities and laws for everything but

there is no follow up”.

5.5 Ministry of Water and Power The Ministry of Water and Power is in charge of the national development of water and

power resources, and has nine sub-organizations with mandates over different sectors. The

interviewed expert at Ministry of Water and Power was not convinced that major flooding

events in the Jhelum River is caused by climate change. The expert rather considered it to be

a question of cycles of flooding events. Mangla dam was considered to be an important

“cushion” that would assure farmers would have water even if the natural flow upstream the

dam would decrease at times: “ With the dam in place we can assure that the farmers are not

affected by the changes in the catchment area upstream”. However the expert pointed out that

the capacity of the dam was to small, with or without climate change impacts. During the

monsoon season the dam is filled up to its maximum capacity and the inflow equals outflow.

During the flood season there are certain procedures that take place, which manage to reduce

the peak of the floods by 20 % but never more than that.

5.6 Irrigation Department Punjab The Irrigation Department of Punjab has mandate of the irrigation system with a monitoring

unit to control the dams, barrages and canals in the region. The irrigation water in the Punjab

province is delivered to farmers in the region through a network of canals collected at dams

and barrages at the main rivers. The water of Pakistan’s main rivers is gathered in three

reservoirs, which is then distributed into the whole irrigation system, the district of Gujrat

receives its irrigation water from the Jhelum River. Hence if there is less water in one of the

rivers the whole system could get affected. Definitely climate change is of major concern,

according to the expert at the irrigation department, as increasing temperatures will effect the

melting of the glaciers and erratic rainfalls could have impacts in some regions. As climate

most certainly will affect the Jhelum River so will Mangla, and hence affect the irrigation

system downstream and the farmers dependent on the water. Regarding he dams capacity

some concerns where raised during flood season, however also this experts pointed out the

work of the flood committee to minimize any risks of flooding.

30

6. Discussion

6.1 Climate change in Gujrat and Jhelum The climate data from the meteorological station at Jhelum reveals a changing climate over

the past four decades. Both changes in temperature and precipitation can be noted in the trend

lines where temperatures seem to increase and precipitation in the area decrease, which is also

in line with findings from other studies conducted in the region (Abbas et al., 2013 Husssain

& Lee, 2014; Iqbal et al., 2016; Sheikh et al., 2015; Yaseen et al., 2014). Not only is the mean

maximum temperature increasing but the mean minimum temperature is increasing as well.

Some farmers specifically observed this change and expressed some reflections regarding

minimum temperatures:

“ Winters are not like they used to be, the canal used to freeze and shine like a mirror and

during the mornings the fields would be covered in frost” Male 78-yearold farmer from

Kunjah.

The annual precipitation in the area shows a significant negative trend, with decreasing

annual precipitation amounts. Hussain & Lee (2014) in their study also show a decrease in

precipitation over the same area during the period 1950-2010. The study also reveals shifts in

“normal” precipitation regimes, which indicates changes in intensity and precipitation amount

over several regions in Pakistan. The interviewed farmers in Jhelum district also experienced

these changing climatic events as some indicated changing rain patterns.

The annual mean minimum temperature shows a significant positive trend with increasing

minimum temperatures between 1975-2015. Iqbal et al., (2016) also concluded this in a study

where maximum and minimum temperature records were collected over 37 weather stations

in Pakistan to analyze trends. The study shows how minimum temperatures have significantly

increased in the whole country, especially during the winter season (Iqbal et al., 2016).

Likewise some of the older farmers could relate to this specifically since they no longer could

see the canal waters freeze during winter mornings, as quoted above. However one study have

also shown the opposite, that annual mean minimum temperature trends show no statistical

significance in Punjab. The study did however observe statistically significant trends for the

spring season, when the minimum temperatures are increasing (Jahangir et al., 2016). Also

Yaseen et al., (2014) notes that climate change is occurring in the Mangla catchment area

where temperatures have increased in the lower parts of the catchment over the period 1971-

2010.

Abbas (2013) further shows warming trends in the Punjab province and finds that amount of

extreme cold days and nights have decreased and the amount of extreme hot days and nights

have increased between 1981-2010. Further the study also reveals an increased amount of

summer days, which also relates to some of the farmers perceptions, as they perceived the

duration of the summer season to increase. Another study on extreme temperature and

precipitation by Sheikh et al., (2015) concludes that the general trend over South Asia is

towards less cold extremes and more warm extremes in temperature. This study also points

out the Indo- Gangetic Plain, which falls in the region of Jhelum and Gujrat, to be an area of

increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall. Models have also shown negative impacts on

31

wheat and rice yields in the Punjab region mainly due to higher temperatures, and as both

wheat and rice make up staple crops in Pakistan this poses a threat for food security (Iqbal et

al., 2009a; Iqbal et al. 2009b).

6.2 Famers’ perceptions of climate change and adaptation As mentioned in the introduction several scholars have argued for the importance of local

knowledge regarding climate change and adaptation (Adger et al., 2009; Chanza & De Wit,

2016; Mercer et al., 2009; Nyong et al., 2007; Orlove et al., 2010; Riedling & Berks, 2001).

Further it has also been increasingly recognized by the IPCC to incorporate local and

indigenous knowledge in adaptation strategy efforts (IPCC 2007; IPCC 2014). Thus this

section provides an understanding of the local farmers perceptions and adaptation to climate

change in this region. As these interviews where conducted by myself a deeper understanding

of the respondents answers in all interviews was gained. Mikecz (2012) also emphasizes the

importance of knowing the interviewees’ culture and background to decrease any power

imbalance. Hence speaking the language fluently and conducting interviews without a

translator decreases power imbalance and mistakes during the interview procedure.

Nearly all interviewed farmers in the three villages stated they had experienced climate

change (95%), and more then half of the farmers expressed these changes as a temperature

increase (68%). Around half of the interviewed also agreed that precipitation has decreased in

the area (45%). These perceptions are in accordance with the actual results of the collected

climate data presented in figures 2, 3 and 4. The experienced change in precipitation in the

region could be related to changes in rain pattern, as 64 % mentioned unpredictable rainfalls

had increased. Mostly farmers with rain- fed agriculture reflected over such changes:

“ The rains have changed, for instance we usually can expect rain in this month (January)

but have not received any. And when it is time to sow we will have rain.” Female 38-yearold

farmer, Chan Baila.

These results are in line with Abid et al., (2015), where farmers perceived an increase in

temperature both during summer and winter, and a decrease in precipitation. Furthermore

several studies from other parts of the world show similar results, as local farmers have

experienced climate change in the form of changes in temperature and precipitation (Campos

et al., 2014; Gandure et al., 2013; Mubaya et al., 2012; Uddin et al., 2014).

A total of 77 % of all the interviewed farmers felt that the duration of the summer season had

increased, which of 14 % experienced it had highly increased. For the duration of the winter

season 68 % responded it had decreased, and among these 14 % felt it had highly decreased.

Among all the climatic events presented this showed the most coherent result at all three

study sites, which shows seasonal temperature in the area is changing most significantly and

also is in accordance with actual measured seasonal trends presented by Abid et al., (2015).

Hence, this illustrates that farmers perceive the actual measured climate changes in the region

accurately.

32

All the interviewed farmers from both Gujrat and Jhelum also expressed they had adapted to

the experienced change in climate. The two strategies most commonly adopted were:

increased irrigation and changing planting/sowing time. As climate change results in

increasing temperatures crops can no longer be grown in the seasons they used to, hence this

results in changes in planting and sowing time. This adaptation strategy strictly relates to the

impacts of climate change, and also illustrates the actions taken towards the experienced

change by local farmers. Several other scholars have also identified this adaptation strategy

among farmers (Abid et al., 2015; Balama et al., 2013; Bryan et al., 2013; Gandure et al.,

2013). However the results regarding implemented adaptation strategies (Table 2 & 3) show

that the number of farmers actually making changes are limited to only a few mainly used

strategies. Increased irrigation and changing planting/sowing time only represented 45 %,

respectively 36 % of all the respondents in the three villages. However 64 % responded they

had additional off-farm jobs, which implies it is more convenient for the farmers to switch

livelihoods rather than adapting. This indicates these farmers might be facing constraints

regarding implementing adaptation strategies, which reviles that climate change only plays

one part in affecting these farmers’ livelihoods. Increased expenses, regulating dams, small

farmland size and lack of institutional support regarding climate change adaptation are some

of the other factors mainly affecting the farmers. One of the farmers expressed the need for

more support to implement adaptation strategies:

“I have been researching on this on my own (improving farming practices)… But this takes

time and gets expensive to do myself. Should I spend my time doing research or take care of

my farm? I need financial and engineering support.” Male 34- year old farmer, Kunjah.

A major concern among all the respondents was decreased water availability and increased

weeds and insects on their fields, which could be due to climate change but also other factors.

One such factor is the Mangla dam, which heavily regulates the water in the Jhelum River. It

affects both water availability through the canals in Kunjah and flooding in the villages along

the floodplain. The farmers using the irrigation system mostly experience changes in water

availability due to the regulations at the dam. Using groundwater for irrigation then

compensates for this decrease in water availability from the canal. Not only does it lead to

increased costs for the farmers but furthermore is not of as good quality as the water from the

canals impacting crops negatively. However, as several experts expressed, the Mangla dam

will not have the capacity if climate change in the region results in increased intensity of the

monsoon and increased glacial melt. Hence climate change does affect the reservoir, which in

turn affects people living downstream. Further increasing temperatures results in an increased

water demand for crops, which also leads to the farmers experiencing decreasing water

availability. Regarding increasing amounts of weeds and insects, which was the second major

concern for the farmers, this could also have other explanations rather than climate change.

More weeds and insects could have some links to increasing temperatures, especially winter

and spring temperatures, as it could lead to the insects surviving winter (Porter, 2014).

However there are other factors that could be linked to this as well, such as more resistance

due to the increasing amounts of pesticides used the last decades (ibid).

Although some farmers are taking different measures to adapt a clear majority of them are

resorting to other off- farm jobs to make an income, as mentioned above. This might be seen

as a step towards transformation rather than adaptation, but for most of the respondents this

was a complementing income to the household and not a total transformation of livelihood.

33

Abid et al., (2016) also highlight that agriculture only plays a small part in farmers total

income in Gujrat compared to other districts in Punjab, mainly due to low agricultural

productivity because of resource constraints. The interviewed farmers mainly used their

agricultural products for domestic use, in other words to provide food for the family.

However to make an income the farmers had other jobs in other villages or in close by cities

to make up for the lack of money. Especially in Chan Baila where the females stayed at home

working on the family farm while the men attended other jobs:

“My husband works outside the farm, in our neighboring village with construction. I stay

home and take care of the field.” Female 48 year- old farmer, Chan Baila.

6.3 Similarities and differences between the study areas

6.3.1 Differences

Over 90 % of all interviewed farmers responded they had experienced some sort of change in

the climate over the past 30-50 years. However in what kind of climatic events these changes

had been experienced differed between the villages in the irrigated areas and rain- fed areas.

While a majority in the floodplain villages (87 %) felt precipitation had decreased over the

years the experiences of the farmers in Kunjah differed. Around half of the farmers felt a

decrease and the other half felt an increase. This difference could be explained by the

difference in water sources for irrigation of crops between the villages. The floodplain

farmers have mainly rain- fed fields; hence are dependent on rain for good yields. However

the farmers in Kunjah use water from the irrigation canals along with groundwater from tube

wells hence is not as dependent on rain as a source of water. This could be one reason for

these farmers to not reflect as much on changes in precipitation over the years, in other words

not be as observant on precipitation changes. The farmers from the floodplain region also

relate this decrease more so to changing patterns of precipitation. Over 70 % of the farmers in

the floodplain region responded unpredictable rainfall had increased. Farmers from Kunjah on

the other hand were somewhat dived on this perception as well, while 43 % felt an increase in

unpredictable rainfalls 43 % also responded there had been no change. Another major

difference between the villages is the occurrence of floods; since Kunjah is not located close

to the river these farmers did not experience any flooding events, which was one of the major

issues for the floodplain farmers.

Regarding adaptation strategies the two areas mainly show differences between two

strategies: increased irrigation and off farm jobs. In Kunjah a total of 86 % responded that

increased irrigation had been a strategy to adapt to less water availability, while only 27 % in

the floodplain region responded to have increased irrigation. In Chan Baila however,

increased irrigation was not an option since they did not have the financial means to for pump

ground water. Further some of the mainly cultivated crops in Kunjah, rice and sugarcane, are

some of the most water requiring crops. While wheat requires much less water, hence the

farmers of Kunjah are in greater need for water and has increased irrigation for their fields.

Regarding off- farm jobs as a strategy to adapt to a changing climate 80% in the floodplain

areas responded to have additional jobs besides farming. In Kunjah on the other hand only 28

% responded to have other jobs outside of farming. This once again reflects the difference in

34

crops between the areas, as rice and sugarcane are considered to be cash crops and thereby

important for the family income while wheat mainly serves the purpose of domestic use.

Some of the farmers in Kunjah mentioned that when yields are good the rice is sold and

provides a valuable income. Hence, the farmers in the floodplain region growing mainly

wheat need to compensate this with additional incomes from other jobs.

6.3.2 Similarities

Although there were some differences the farmers from both areas were also characterized by

some similarities. A clear majority in both areas perceived that the duration of the summer

season had become both longer and warmer, and likewise a majority from both villages felt

winter seasons had gotten shorter and milder. Other similarities were regarding how climate

change has impacted the farmers in their daily lives. Most of the interviewed farmers felt they

had been negatively affected by these changes. This was mainly because of less water

availability and increasing weeds and insects, which had negative impacts on their yields.

Further the interviewed farmers felt a lack of support from the government in sustaining their

farming practices, which intensifies the negative impacts. Some of the farmers even expressed

how they have approached the local agriculture office for help but gotten no response:

“When we had a pest break out in our fields and all of our yields failed we went to the

agriculture office to show them what was happening. They said they would take some samples

to the lab, but they never got back to us.” Male farmer 33- years from Kunjah.

Most of the interviewed farmers also agreed on how these changes had impacted their daily

lives, as 86 % responded negatively and all of the respondents agreed that they had adapted to

these changes. The survey also showed that a majority (64 %) of all interviewed farmers had

responded to the changes by looking for off farm jobs and alternative livelihoods to secure

their income. This was more common then any other form off adaptation strategy at the

farms, and might be called a transformation rather than adaptation because of the change in

livelihood. However, these farmers only had off- farm jobs as an additional income hence a

complete transformation of livelihood is no the case for these farmers. Another adaptation

form, related to water availability was an increasing amount of groundwater pumping for

irrigation. Yu et al., (2013 p. 58) also show a change in irrigation source over time in Pakistan

where the amount of tube wells is increasing and a combination of groundwater and canal

water is commonly used for irrigation. Many farmers had come together to be able to afford

digging groundwater wells for their farms, which relates to responding to changes by

technological fixes and increased irrigation. Both farmers using canal water and rainwater

responded the water sources they initially relied on were not enough. However the poorest

interviewed farmers did not afford to pump groundwater and dig out wells in their village.

Since the farmers had experienced a change in the rain patterns and this was compensated by

pumping groundwater. The farmers using the irrigation system mentioned that they no longer

receive as much water as they used to because of governmental changes such as narrowing

and blocking parts of the canals.

35

6.4 Experts’ comments

A majority of the experts expressed concerns regarding the impacts of climate change on the

Jhelum River and for local farmers. Not only will a temperature rise result in an increasing

demand of water for the crops, but climate change will also increase the intensity and amount

of climate extremes in the form of droughts and flooding events in the area. All of the

governmental experts emphasized the need to construct more dams to adapt to these changes.

According to them more dams would solve both the issue of water availability through the

irrigation system, but also absorb most of the water during the flooding season. However at

IWMI, which is a NGO, the opposite was proposed. Dismantling of current dams and to

restore the river ecology was the key message. Adams (2009) has also pointed out the many

negative impacts of dams on downstream people and ecosystems, and has argued for the need

of a more bottom- up participatory approach when planning and managing dams. In many

undeveloped countries the construction of dams is still a sign of development and great

technology, but neglecting its many negative impacts (Adams, 2009).

The expert interviews also reveal a gap between the government policies and the locals. The

interviewed farmers both in the floodplain region and in Kunjah confirmed they had not

received any support from any authority regarding improving farming practices or adapting to

climate change. However according to some experts there is capacity building at the local

level provided by the provincial agricultural departments, but this was not the case for the

interviewed farmers in this study. Cheema (2014) also highlights the issue of passing down

responsibility of environmental issues to province level, as they will not prioritize climate

change policies and rather put resources to other matters. Many of the experts did also

recognize this gap, the gap of implementing climate change policies, while some saw it as a

financial issue others saw it as an issue of the government’s priorities. Another gap identified

was during the procedure of releasing water from the dam. During this procedure down

stream districts are informed 5-6 hours ahead who then pass on the information to nearby

villages. However some of the farmers confirmed this was not the case, they did not hear any

signal before water is released through their village. This would have major implications for

the people living in and near by the floodplain zone as they have no chance to move, and even

if some knew how to swim the power of the water would be to strong to swim through.

The expert interviews have revealed the unequal distribution of power in Pakistan, power

regarding the decision-making process. However this study has shown that the local farmers

are already adapting to a changing climate with some limitations, while the government has

not made any practical efforts in any of the villages in this study. Hence the farmers have a lot

of knowledge regarding the implications of climate change for farming practices and are

actively adapting. These power structures relates to the political ecology stories of justice and

injustice (Robbins, 2012). The unequal distribution of resources and hazards further illustrate

“winners and losers” of society, in the case of the uneven distribution of water and the risks of

flooding (ibid). The Mangla Dam is supposed to sufficiently distribute water to the irrigation

system and mitigate the risk of floods, but this is not the case. Neither are the farmers

receiving enough water through the irrigation canals nor are the villages along the floodplain

experiencing less flooding events. Further it was expressed by several experts that the flood

mitigation committee serves the purpose of minimizing harm during flooding season.

However, the locals are not apart of this decision making process when determining what

infrastructure are of importance and should be protected from flooding. This raises questions

36

of: whom the dam is built by and who it is built for? As most of the experts considered the

dams to be the number one strategy to adapt to climate change, however this could be

questioned as the appropriate adaptation strategy. Could it even be a maladaptation strategy?

Adaptation in Gujrat and Jhelum is highly limited by power structures, and the local farmers

can only adapt by so much until they need support to sustain or develop more efficient

strategies. The adaptation strategies would be more effective if locals had a more

participatory role in decisions regarding appropriate adaptation. In the case of the Gujrat

district the Mangla reservoir has not solved the issue of water availability and in Jhelum

district the farmers perceived the amount of flooding events to have increased. Hence, the

reservoir could be questioned as the appropriate adaptation strategy in this region. This is

opposite to what Zhu et al., (2013) presents, as this study suggests reservoirs for water storage

to be one of the main adaptation strategies for climate change in the Indus basin. Although

adaptation to climate change is already occurring at the local level many farmers are choosing

to leave the farming practices, which is a result of the lack of institutional support. Many of

the farmers had already compensated low incomes with additional off- farm jobs, but if the

impacts of climate change become stronger and the institutional support is lacking it could

lead to farmers leaving the farming completely. For institutional support to be effective and

helpful for the farmers their experiences and strategies need to be fully understood and

incorporated into climate change policies, as this study also shows that different areas are

affected differently. Capacity building could serve as a great tool to facilitate adaptation of

farming practices to a changing climate, as all farmers responded positively regarding

receiving educational support. Knowledge should be passed in both directions, both from the

farmers to the experts and from the experts to the farmers. Further the gap between policies

and actual implementation of the policies at local level needs to be filled, if policies are not

implemented they serve no purpose. As climate change is already occurring and will have

stronger impacts in coming decades it is crucial that societies start adapting accordingly. We

have already passed the promising stage of mitigating emissions; climate change is here and

will have the biggest impacts in the developing parts of the world. Within developing

countries like Pakistan the farmers, whose livelihoods depend on the climate, will face the

biggest challenges. To minimize the negative impacts it will be crucial to adopt suitable

adaptation strategies to climate change.

6.5 Limitations A limitation for this study was the uneven number of interviewed farmers in the rain- fed

villages and the irrigated villages; hence its comparability could be questioned. Further the

overall small number of respondents is a limitation, as no general conclusion of the whole

region can be made. Rather this study gives an understanding of the local situation of these

specific areas. However other similar studies from the area and field observations where used

to support and strengthen the results, hence some more general conclusions could be made.

37

7. Conclusion

Meteorological data from Jhelum shows a significant trend in both increasing temperature and

decreasing precipitation over the past four decades in the region. Farmers are accurately

experiencing this climate change at the local level; both farmers with rain- fed and irrigated

agriculture. The farmers with rain- fed fields are more vulnerable to climate change than

farmers with irrigated fields, due to their direct dependence on rain patterns. However future

climate change could have severe impacts on the dam, hence also affect the irrigation system.

This study also shows that local farmers have adopted different adaptation strategies in

response to the experienced climate change, mainly in the form off changing planting and

sowing time and increased irrigation using groundwater, but also by having alternative off-

farm jobs. Expert interviews mainly revealed three aspects: 1) Dams are considered to be the

main form of adaptation in the area 2) There is self-criticism among institutions regarding

government priorities on climate change adaptation 3) There are bottle necks in the system

concerning implementation of climate change adaptation policies. According to some experts

there are several efforts made to support farmers, however the interviewed farmers in this

study disagreed and are in need of support.

The results indicate that it is easier for the farmers to have additional side jobs than to

implement adaptation strategies in their farming practices. The lack of institutional support

for local farmers is hindering effective adaptation in this region of Pakistan. This is of big

concern as the locally produced wheat and rice is not only the main source of food in the

households, but reduced yields also pose a major threat to Pakistan’s national economy that

heavily depends on its agricultural income. Hence the national food security and economy

could face severe risks if adaptations are not made. To conclude, local farmers are taking

measures to adapt to climate change, but there is an urgent need for government to step in and

support these actions and initiatives for successful and long- term adaptation.

38

Acknowledgements

First and foremost I would like to sincerely thank ÅForsk for my travel grant to be able to

conduct this field study. Secondly I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor

Håkan Berg for useful comments and engagement during this process. I would also like to

thank three fellow students for their support: Arian Barakat for his assistance with statistical

calculations, Kristina von Schreeb for support during development of location map and Maria

Fredlund for proofreading. Further I would like to thank Pakistan Metrological Department

(PMD) for providing me with climate data. Lastly big thanks to my father (Yaseen Saleemi)

and my uncle (Mohsin Saleemi), who helped me find contacts and assisted me in the field.

This thesis would not have been possible without you.

39

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Appendix

Questionnaire for local farmers

Social background

Name of farmer:

District and village name:

Date:

Age:

Gender:

Level of education:

Main crop on farm:

Occupation (other than farming, if any)

Family size:

Farm size:

Since how long he is practicing farming?

1. Have you experienced climate change? (Explain in easy terms for participants)

Yes No

44

2. What are these changes in specific climatic events?

Highly

Increased

Increased No Change Decreased Highly

Decreased

Rainfall

Temperature

Occurrence

drought

Occurrence flood

Unpredictable

rainfall

Changes in

monsoon

Duration

summer season

Duration winter

season

Other

3. Have these changes affected your livelihood and well-being? (income, social and physical

safety, living situation etc.) If yes, how?

Yes No

Very Positively

Positively

No effect

Negatively

Very negatively

45

4. How have you been affected by these changes in your daily life?

Increased No change Decreased Don’t know

Water

availability

Soil fertility

Crop Yield

Wheat

Rice

Maize

sugarcane

Income from

farming

Expenses in

daily life

Change in

insects

Other

5. Have you taken any adaptation measures against these perceived changes? (Explain in

easier terms)

Yes No

6. What different adaptation strategies have you used?

Strategy:

Increased use of

irrigation

Practicing

diversification

Integrated farming

system

Use of drought

tolerant crops

Practicing crop

rotation

Cultivating short

duration crops

Finding off-farm job

Technological fixes

Other

46

7. Do you receive the support you need to sustain these adaptation practices?

Yes, all I need Yes, but not

enough

Somewhat No, not at all

8. Is there any role of government agencies or other organizations in facilitating adaptation at

your farm? (Open- ended question)

9. What kind of support would you need more of to be able to adapt to current and future

climate changes?

Technical support to

manage farming

Technical support for

disaster risk reduction

Financial support

Education on climate

change

Education on

improved/resilient

farming practices

Other

10. What is your opinion about the current water regulation system by the Mangla dam?

Very good Good Neutral Not good Not good at all

11. If the experience has been negative, how? (Open-ended question)

12. Currently, what is the most severe issue with the water regulation and climate changes for

your farming practices? (Open-ended question)