NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 25 JULY 2013 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / CLEAN ENERGY FINANCING OVERVIEW NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WORKSHOP 25 JULY 2013 ETHAN ZINDLER
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 25 JULY 2013 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
CLEAN ENERGY FINANCING OVERVIEW
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WORKSHOP
25 JULY 2013
ETHAN ZINDLER
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 25 JULY 2013 2 / / / /
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be
photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any
way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are
reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be
construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of
the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New
Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions
presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising
from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of
financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or
whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment.
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 25 JULY 2013 3 / / / /
North America (39)
South America (5)
Europe (88)
Asia Pacific (24)
Africa (29)
San Francisco
Sao Paulo
Washington New York
Cape Town Sydney
London Beijing
New Delhi
Hong Kong
BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE: 200 STAFF IN 13 OFFICES WORLDWIDE
Tokyo
Singapore
Zurich
Objective: Be the definitive source of insight, data and news on the transformation of the energy sector.
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 25 JULY 2013 4 / / / /
WHO WE SERVE: 700+ LEADING PLAYERS GLOBALLY
GOVERNMENT & AGENCIES SUPPLY CHAIN &TECHNOLOGY
UTILITIES & ENERGY FINANCE & INVESTMENT
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 25 JULY 2013 5 / / / /
$269bn
GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004–12 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted for re-invested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions
$54bn$80bn
$114bn$165bn
$191bn $187bn
$251bn$302bn
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
+48%+42%
+45%
+16% -2%
+34%
+20%-11%
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 25 JULY 2013 6 / / / /
CLEAN VS FOSSIL-BASED GENERATING CAPACITY INVESTMENT, 2006–12 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Clean energy total excludes large hydro. Fossil fuel is investment on coal and gas capacity. We assume capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal and 4%/yr for gas.
Clean energy
Fossil fuel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 25 JULY 2013 7 / / / /
TECH DEVELOPMENT AND WHERE FINANCING / GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FITS IN
Product Development Early Commercialization
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
Commercial Maturity
Ga
ps
Deployment / Pilot Facility
Technology Creation
Research & DevelopmentDemonstration / Proof of
ConceptDiffusion /
Commercialization
Valley of death -Technological
Public MarketsSeries A Series B Later RoundsSeries C
Generate idea and begin to generate intellectual property
Design and test prototypeBuild company Improve intellectual property
Prove technical validity in the fieldMarket technology
Prove manufacture process can be scaled economicallyProve technology is viable at scale
Proven technology is sold and distributed
Valley of death - Commercialization
Grants, Natl lab support
Grants, loan guarantees
Grants, loans, guarantees, 48C credits
Tax credits (PTC/ITC)
Scale-back, MLPs (?), etc.
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 25 JULY 2013 8 / / / /
+4+4
+5 +1 +2 15 -0.1
+23
+7 44
+19 63+19
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT TYPES & FLOWS IN THE UNITED STATES, 2012 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
VC Corp R&D
Gov R&D
PE Public markets
new equity
Total company
investment
Re- invested
Asset finance
Small distributed
capacity
Total investment
M&A/ Buy-outs
etc.
Total transactions
Technology development
Equipment manufacturing/ scale-up
Projects
Asset and company mergers, acquisitions, refinancing, buy-outs etc.
US by far world leader (68% of global VC/PE investments in 2011)
US by far world leader (75% of global VC/PE investments in 2012)
Led by: • Tesla (secondary) • Solarcity (IPO) • GT Advanced Tech
(convertible) • Sunpower (secondary)
36% Drop from 2011 after expiration of incentive programs: • DOE loan
guarantee • 1603 Treasury
cash grant • Anticipation of
wind PTC expiration
Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, Adjusted for re-invested equity.
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 25 JULY 2013 9 / / / /
1.4 1.61.0
1.82.5
4.1
1.9
3.6
5.9 6.16.8
10.1
7.87.2
9.7
12.4
10.311.3
8.27.5
3.0
8.7
6.45.3
6.5
9.2
7.5
12.9
6.4
18.1
20.3
11.8
9.5
11.9
8.5
6.7
3.7
9.5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Wind Solar Bioenergy Energy smart technologies Other clean energy
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN THE US BY SECTOR, Q1 2004–Q2 2013 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate R&D, government R&D, digital energy asset investment and energy storage asset investment (only available annually)
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 25 JULY 2013 10 / / / /
0.10.2
0.10.2 0.2
0.4
0.2
0.6
0.3
0.91.0
0.5
0.80.9
1.01.2 1.2
1.7
2.3
1.7
0.7
1.4 1.3
0.6
1.7
2.1
0.7
1.4
1.7
1.2
1.61.5
1.21.3
0.9 1.0
0.6 0.7
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PE Expansion capital VC Further VC Series C VC Series B VC Series A VC Seed/Tech
VC/PE NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN THE US BY ROUND TYPE, Q1 2004–Q2 2013 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes PE buy-outs which do not constitute new money flows, but rather money changing hands.
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 25 JULY 2013 11 / / / /
LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY Q2 2013 ($/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: regional scenarios are shown to demonstrate the richness of the dataset and are discussed further in the sector-specific sections of the Note.
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Coal firedNatural gas CCGT
CHPNuclear
Small hydroLarge hydro
Biomass - anaerobic digestionLandfill gas
Geothermal - flash plantBiomass - incinerationMunicipal solid waste
Wind - onshoreGeothermal - binary plant
PV - c-SiBiomass - gasification
PV - c-Si trackingPV - thin film
STEG - tower & heliostat …STEG - parabolic trough
Wind - offshoreFuel cells
STEG - parabolic trough + storageSTEG - tower & heliostat
STEG - LFRMarine - tidal
Marine - wave
Global LCOE range Regional scenarios Q1 2013 central Q2 2013 central
1059861
531
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
Subscription-based news, data and analysis to support your
decisions in clean energy, power and water and the carbon markets
MARKETS Renewable Energy
Carbon Markets
Energy Smart Technologies
Renewable Energy Certificates
Carbon Capture & Storage
Power
Water
Nuclear
SERVICES Insight: research, analysis & forecasting Industry Intelligence: data & analytics News & Briefing: daily, weekly & monthly Applied Research: custom research & data mining Knowledge Services: Summit, Leadership Forums, Executive Briefings & workshops
THANKS!
ETHAN ZINDLER, [email protected] TWITTER: @ETHANALL