CITRIS i4E Dedication UC Berkeley Jan. 29. 2010 Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Former Commissioner California Energy Commission Home Phone: 510 527 1060 [email protected].

CITRIS i4E DedicationUC BerkeleyJan. 29. 2010

Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Former CommissionerCalifornia Energy Commission

Home Phone: 510 527 [email protected]

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Does Anyone See A Problem With This Picture?

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Energy Intensity (E/GDP) in the United States (1949 - 2005) and France (1980 - 2003)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005

thousa

nd

Btu

/$ (

in $

2000

) If intensity dropped at pre-1973 rate of 0.4%/year

Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1%/year)

France

12% of GDP = $1.7 Trillion in 2005

7% of GDP =$1.0 TrillionIn 2005

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Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

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60

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62

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64

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70

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72

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74

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76

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78

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92

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98

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00

20

02

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04

20

06

20

08

United States

California

Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $1975 2005 % change

US GDP/capita 16,241 31,442 94%Cal GSP/capita 18,760 33,536 79%

2005 Differences = 5,300kWh/yr = $165/capita

[2009 Integrated Energy Policy Report]

Impact of Efficiency Regulations and Utility Programs

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ii44Energy Center Value PropositionEnergy Center Value Proposition

The “(Rosenfeld effect)2”

8Source: David Goldstein

New United States Refrigerator Use v. Time and Retail Prices

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Avera

ge A

nnu

al Energ

y U

se(k

wh)

or

Pri

ce($

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Refr

igera

tor

volu

me (

cub

ic f

eet)

Energy Use per Refrigerator(kWh/Year)

Refrigerator Size (cubic ft)

Refrigerator Price in 1983 $

$ 1,270

$ 462

~ 1 Ton CO2/year~ 100 gallons Gasoline/year

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Annual Energy Saved vs. Several Sources of Supply

Energy Saved Refrigerator Stds

renewables

100 Million 1 KW PV systems

conventional hydro

nuclear energy

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Bil

lio

n k

Wh

/yea

r

= 80 power plants of 500 MW

each

In the United States

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Value of Energy to be Saved (at 8.5 cents/kWh, retail price) vs. Several Sources of Supply in 2005 (at 3 cents/kWh, wholesale price)

Energy Saved Refrigerator Stds

renewables

100 Million 1 KW PV systems

conventional hydro

nuclear energy

0

5

10

15

20

25

Bill

ion

$ (

US

)/ye

ar

in 2

00

5In the United States

The residential energy consumption due to televisions rapidly increased from 3-4% in 1990s to 8-10% in 2008. Television energy will grow up to 18% by 2023 without regulations. The projected growth does not include the residential energy use by cable boxes, DVD players, internet boxes, Blue Ray, game consoles etc.

Televisions Represent Significant Energy Use

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Technically Feasible Standards

Each point may represent several TV models

*Consumers can expect to save between $ 50 - $ 250 over the life of their TV

*A 50 inch plasma can consume as little as 307 kWh/yr and as much as 903 kWh/yr

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General Purpose Lighting – Proposed Regulations (cont.)

Rated Lumens Range

Maximum rated Wattage

Minimum Rated Life

Time

Proposed California

Effective Date1490-2600 Lumens 72 Watts 1,000 hours Jan, 1, 20111050-1489Lumens 53 Watts 1,000 hours Jan 1, 2012750-1049 Lumens 43 Watts 1,000 hours Jan 1, 2013310-749 Lumens 29 Watts 1,000 hours Jan 1, 2013

Proposed Table K-8: Standards for State-regulated General Services Incandescent Lamps -Tier I

Lumens Range Maximum Lamp Efficacy

Minimum Rated Life

Time

Proposed California Effective

DateAll 45 lumens per

watt1,000 hours Jan, 1, 2018

Proposed Table K-9: Standards for State-regulated General Services Lamps -Tier II

Abatement cost <$50/ton

U.S. mid-range abatement curve – 2030

Source:McKinsey analysis

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

**

CostReal 2005 dollars per ton CO2e

* * * * ** * * * * *** * *

-23*

Residential electronics

Commercial electronics

Residential buildings – Lighting

Commercial buildings – LED lighting

Fuel economy packages – Cars

Commercial buildings – CFL lighting

Cellulosicbiofuels

Industry – Combined heat and power

Existing power plant conversion efficiency improvements Conservation

tillage

Fuel economy packages – Light trucks

Commercial buildings – Combined heat and power

Coal mining – Methane mgmt

Commercial buildings – Control systems

Distributed solar PV

Residential buildings – Shell retrofits

Nuclear new-build

Natural gas and petroleum systems management

Active forest management

Afforestation of pastureland

Reforestation

Winter cover crops

Onshore wind – Medium penetration

Coal power plants – CCS new builds with EOR

Biomass power – Cofiring

Onshore wind –High penetration

Industry – CCS new builds on carbon-intensive processes

Coal power plants – CCS new builds

Coal power plants – CCS rebuilds

Coal-to-gas shift – dispatch of existing plants

Car hybridi-zation

Commercial buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency

Solar CSP

Residential buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency

Industrial process improve-ments

Residential water heaters

Manufacturing – HFCs mgmt

Residential buildings – New shell improvements

Coal power plants– CCS rebuilds with EOR

PotentialGigatons/year

Commercial buildings – New shell improvements

Afforestation of cropland

Onshore wind –Low penetration

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PIER-Funded Research Centers

PIER = Public Interest Energy Research, ~$100M/year, operated by CEC, funded by CA IOU’s. (IOU=Investor-owned utility)

1. Existing before 2000, on UCB Campus, now receiving PIER support – 4 centers

CBE (Architecture’s Center for the Built Environment) recently awarded CREC = Center for Resource Efficient Communities

CIEE (Energy Efficiency). CITRIS (PIER sponsored DRETD = Demand Response Enabling

Technologies Development), which was recently formalized as i4E.

CSEM (Electricity Markets) recently re-named Haas EnergyCenter

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Since 2000 PIER has started 8 centers

At UCDavis, 3 CentersCLTC (Lighting Technology)WCC (Western Cooling Center)EECenter (Energy Efficiency)

At LBNL: DRRC (Demand Response)At UCSD: Climate CenterAt UCI: Plug Loads (Active Mode)At UC Merced: SolarAt Cal State Sacramento: Smart Grid

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Demand Response

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California is a Summer Peaking AreaCalifornia Daily Peak Loads -- 2006

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06

MW

Residential Air Conditioning

Commercial Air Conditioning

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Three Necessary Components for Demand Response and Utility Modernization

• Advanced Metering Infrastructure– Digital meters with communication

• Dynamic Tariffs– Enable customers to be able to respond to hourly prices – The structure of these tariffs is critically important as customers are hoping to reduce

total energy costs

• Automated Response Technology at customer locations

– Enable residential and small commercial customers to respond to price automatically– Larger customers with energy management systems linked to pricing signals over the

internet or through other communication channels

• And, when coupled with energy efficiency programs and policies the result can be reduction in total consumption as well as peak period consumption

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Critical Peak Pricing (CPP)with additional curtailment option

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

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Pri

ce (

cents

/kW

h)

Standard TOUCritical Peak PriceStandard Rate

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

Extraordinary Curtailment Signal, < once per year

CPP Price Signal

10x per year

?

Potential Annual Customer Savings:

10 afternoons x 4 hours x 1kw = 40 kWh at 70 cents/kWh = ~$30/year

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Average Residential Response to Critical Peak

Pricing

kW

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Noon 2:30 7:30 Midnight

CPP Event

CPP with Controllable Thermostat

Control Group

Fixed Incentive with Controllable Thermostat

69%

65%

73%

61%

69%

22%

30%

20%

26%

17%

0%20%40%60%80%100%

Total

TOU

CPP-F

CPP-V

Info Only

1

1

91%

93%

87%

86%

Should dynamic rates be offered to all customers?

DefinitelyProbably

95%

Key Results from Residential Pilot•12% average load reduction for CPP rate alone

•Up to 40% with rate + enabling tech

•Most participants preferred the pilot rates

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Automated Demand ResponseCommercial Customers

*Source: Demand Response Research Center, Global Energy Partners

PCT With U-SNAP Interface (front) PCT With U-SNAP Interface (front)

PCT With U-SNAP Interface (rear) PCT With U-SNAP Interface (rear)

• Source for following two Slides:– Lester Lave and Maxine Savitz. Relative Costs for 95 new

production homes at Premier Gardens in Sacramento.

• Report of Panel on Energy Efficiency in the United States. National Academies Press. (November 2009) WWW.NAS.EDU

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0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Prem

ier Gar

dens

Whe

at R

idge

Armor

y Pa

rk d

el S

ol

Smith

Pas

sivh

aus

Hat

haway

Hou

se

Live

rmor

e

Lake

land

$/kW

h e

q s

aved

$/kWh eq of efficiency investment

$/kWh of PV

$/kWh eq including both efficiency and PV

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Incremental Cost of Efficiency Measures and PVs in $

An

nu

al k

Wh

(eq

) in

clu

din

g h

eati

ng

lo

ad w

ith

nat

ura

l g

as

con

vert

ed

at

10,0

00 B

tu/k

Wh

Premier Gardens

Wheat Ridge

Armory Park del Sol

Smith Passivhaus

Lakeland

Indifference

Indifference

Indifference

Indifference

• Published in Climatic Change 2009.

• Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2

July 28, 2008

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Hashem Akbari and Surabi MenonLawrence Berkeley National

Laboratory, [email protected]: 510-486-4287

Arthur RosenfeldCalifornia Energy Commission, USA

[email protected]: 916-654 4930

• A First Step In Geo-Engineering Which Saves Money and Has Known Positive Environmental Impacts

1000 ft2 of a white roof, replacing a dark roof, offset the emission of

10 tonnes of CO2

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CO2 Equivalency of Cool Roofs

• White Roofs alone offset 24 GT CO2• Worth > €600 Billion• To Convert 24 GT CO2 one time into a rate• Assume 20 Year Period• Results in 1.2 GT CO2/year• Average World Car Emits 4 tCO2/year

• So rate is 300 Million Cars Off the Road for 20 years.

Solar Reflective Surfaces Also Cool the Globe

Source: IPCC

3232

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White is ‘cool’ in Bermuda

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and in Santorini, Greece

Cool Roof Technologies

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flat, white

pitched, white

pitched, cool & colored

Old New

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Simulated Meteorology and Air-quality Impacts in LA

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Potential Savings in LA

• Savings for Los Angeles– Direct, $100M/year– Indirect, $70M/year– Smog, $360M/year

• Estimate of national savings: $5B/year

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California peak electricity demand is growing

In 2000, 72% population lived along coast.

By 2040, nearly 40% of population will live inland.

Need for more peaking plants or demand response measures to meet the higher summer peaks.

Federal Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) Legislation

• American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)– Included some measures specifically intended to promote PACE programs

• American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES)– Authorized federal government to provide guarantees or other indirect financial support to

PACE program bonds, potentially reducing the costs of capital to the program dramatically• H.R.3525

– Introduced by Rep. Mike Thompson in July 2009 (in House Committee on Ways and Means)

– Allows issuance of federally tax-exempt bonds for PACE programs to finance the following:

• Renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic renewable energy, incremental hydropower, biomass and landfill gas)

• Energy conservation/efficiency (energy efficient retrofits of existing buildings and/or efficient storage, distribution, or transmission, including smart grid technologies)

• Water conservation/efficiency (reduce demand, improve efficiency of use, reduce losses, improve land management practices that conserve water); does not include water storage

• Zero emission vehicles (no tailpipe emissions, evaporative emissions, or onboard emission-control systems that can deteriorate over time)

• A facility or project used for the manufacture of the above resources

Federal PACE Legislation (cont.)• H.R.3836

– Introduced by Rep. Steve Israel in October 2009 (in House Committee on Energy and Commerce)

– Purpose is to promote access to affordable financing and provide credit support for accelerated and widespread deployment of:

• (1) clean energy technologies;• (2) advanced or enabling energy infrastructure technologies; and• (3) energy efficiency technologies in residential, commercial, and industrial applications,

including end-use efficiency in buildings.– Clean energy technology:

• Technology related to the production, use, transmission, storage, control, or conservation of energy that will contribute to a stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations thorough reduction, avoidance, or sequestration of energy-related emissions and for which, as determined by the Administrator, insufficient commercial lending is available at affordable rates to allow for widespread deployment.

– “Credit support” is defined as:• (A) direct loans, letters of credit, loan guarantees, and insurance products; and• (B) the purchase or commitment to purchase, or the sale or commitment to sell, debt

instruments (including subordinated securities).

States with PACE Legislation• California• Colorado• Florida• Hawaii• Illinois• Louisiana• Maryland• Nevada• New Mexico• New York• Ohio• Oklahoma• Oregon• Texas• Utah• Vermont• Virginia• Wisconsin

AB 811 (2008), AB 474 (2009)HB 08-1350 (2008)

Pre-existing authority to form PACE districtsPre-existing authority to form PACE districts

SB 583 (2009)SB 224 (2009)

HB 1567(2009)SB 358 (2009)SB 647 (2009)

S66004a (2009) [same as A40004A]HB 1 (2009)

SB 668 (2009)HB 2626 (2009)HB 1937 (2009)

Pre-existing authority to form PACE districtsH 446 (2009)

SB 1212 (2009)AB 255 (2009)

The EndFor More Information:

http://www.energy.ca.gov/commissioners/rosenfeld_docs/index.html

or just Google “Art Rosenfeld”

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