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CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. Andrew Walker VP LNG Strategy January 23, 2018 European Gas Conference - Vienna How is the Rest of the World’s LNG Interfacing With Europe?
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CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

Feb 16, 2020

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Page 1: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

CHENIERE ENERGY, INC.

Andrew Walker

VP LNG Strategy

January 23, 2018

European Gas Conference - Vienna

How is the Rest of the World’s LNG Interfacing With Europe?

Page 2: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

Safe Harbor Statements

2

Forward-Looking Statements

This presentation contains certain statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended.

All statements, other than statements of historical or present facts or conditions, included or incorporated by reference herein are “forward-looking statements.” Included among “forward-looking statements” are, among other things:

• statements regarding the ability of Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. to pay distributions to its unitholders or Cheniere Energy Partners LP Holdings, LLC or Cheniere Energy, Inc. to pay dividends to its shareholders or participate in share or unit

buybacks;

• statements regarding Cheniere Energy, Inc.’s, Cheniere Energy Partners LP Holdings, LLC’s or Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P.’s expected receipt of cash distributions from their respective subsidiaries;

• statements that Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. expects to commence or complete construction of its proposed liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) terminals, liquefaction facilities, pipeline facilities or other projects, or any expansions or portions thereof,

by certain dates or at all;

• statements that Cheniere Energy, Inc. expects to commence or complete construction of its proposed LNG terminals, liquefaction facilities, pipeline facilities or other projects, or any expansions or portions then of, by certain dates or at all;

• statements regarding future levels of domestic and international natural gas production, supply or consumption or future levels of LNG imports into or exports from North America and other countries worldwide, or purchases of natural gas,

regardless of the source of such information, or the transportation or other infrastructure, or demand for and prices related to natural gas, LNG or other hydrocarbon products;

• statements regarding any financing transactions or arrangements, or ability to enter into such transactions;

• statements relating to the construction of our proposed liquefaction facilities and natural gas liquefaction trains (“Trains”) and the construction of the Corpus Christi Pipeline, including statements concerning the engagement of any engineering,

procurement and construction ("EPC") contractor or other contractor and the anticipated terms and provisions of any agreement with any EPC or other contractor, and anticipated costs related thereto;

• statements regarding any agreement to be entered into or performed substantially in the future, including any revenues anticipated to be received and the anticipated timing thereof, and statements regarding the amounts of total LNG

regasification, natural gas, liquefaction or storage capacities that are, or may become, subject to contracts;

• statements regarding counterparties to our commercial contracts, construction contracts and other contracts;

• statements regarding our planned development and construction of additional Trains or pipelines, including the financing of such Trains or pipelines;

• statements that our Trains, when completed, will have certain characteristics, including amounts of liquefaction capacities;

• statements regarding our business strategy, our strengths, our business and operation plans or any other plans, forecasts, projections or objectives, including anticipated revenues, capital expenditures, maintenance and operating costs, run-rate

SG&A estimates, cash flows, EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, run-rate EBITDA, distributable cash flow, and distributable cash flow per share and unit, any or all of which are subject to change;

• statements regarding projections of revenues, expenses, earnings or losses, working capital or other financial items;

• statements regarding legislative, governmental, regulatory, administrative or other public body actions, approvals, requirements, permits, applications, filings, investigations, proceedings or decisions;

• statements regarding our anticipated LNG and natural gas marketing activities; and

• any other statements that relate to non-historical or future information.

These forward-looking statements are often identified by the use of terms and phrases such as “achieve,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “contemplate,” “develop,” “estimate,” “example,” “expect,” “forecast,” “goals,” ”guidance,” “opportunities,” “plan,” “potential,” “project,”

“propose,” “subject to,” “strategy,” “target,” and similar terms and phrases, or by use of future tense. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties,

and these expectations may prove to be incorrect. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-

looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. and Cheniere Energy Partners LP Holdings, LLC Annual Reports on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on

February 24, 2017, which are incorporated by reference into this presentation. All forward-looking statements attributable to us or persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these ”Risk Factors.” These forward-looking statements are

made as of the date of this presentation, and other than as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement or provide reasons why actual results may differ, whether as a result of new information, future events or

otherwise.

Reconciliation to U.S. GAAP Financial Information

The following presentation includes certain “non-GAAP financial measures” as defined in Regulation G under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Schedules are included in the appendix hereto that reconcile the non-GAAP financial measures

included in the following presentation to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP.

Page 3: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

Sabine Pass Liquefaction Project (Louisiana) Corpus Christi Liquefaction Project (Texas)

Cheniere Project Update

Four trains operating, and one under construction

(22.5 mtpa total)

Contracts with 3 long-term buyers now commercially

operational

Over 230 destination-flexible cargoes loaded since

start-up. Sent to 25 different countries.

Train 6 is fully permitted & ready to commercialise

First greenfield facility in the U.S. ‘lower-48’

Two trains under construction (9 mtpa total)

77.4% project completion (as of November 2017)

First LNG expected in late-2018

Train 3 is fully permitted & being commercialised

Page 4: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

Destination of Sabine Pass Cargoes

Cheniere Office

Cheniere LNG Facility

Portugal,

Kuwait,

UAE,

Pakistan India,

Thailand

Brazil

Argentina

Houston, TX

Santiago, Chile

Washington, DC

London, U.K.

Singapore

Cargo Delivery Destination

China,

Taiwan

Spain

Mexico

Dominican

Republic

Italy, Malta,

Egypt, Turkey,

Jordan

Japan,

South Korea

Since Start Up, More Than 230 Cargoes Loaded and Delivered to 25 Countries

Chile

Tokyo, Japan

Sources: Cheniere Research, Kpler

MENA – Middle East – North Africa

Sabine Pass Exports By

Destination Region (Since Startup(1))

(1)Date reflects cargo loading date until January 4, 2018, representing all cargoes that have loaded and discharged.

Poland, Lithuania,

Netherlands,

United Kingdom Beijing, China

Page 5: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

U.S. LNG Capacity Under Construction

5

Cheniere Constructing Half of U.S. LNG Export Capacity

Cheniere Export Project

Non-Cheniere Export Project

Source: Cheniere Research estimates for first export. Actual start dates may differ depending on construction schedules

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20

mtp

a

U.S. LNG Capacity Under Construction

Sabine Pass T1-4

Cove Point

Elba Island Phase 1-2

Corpus Christi T1

Corpus Christi T2

Freeport T2

Freeport LNG T3

Sabine Pass T5

Cameron

LNG T3

Cameron LNG T3

Cameron LNG T1

Cheniere Export Project

Dec-17

Freeport T1

Page 6: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

6

70+ flexible U.S. cargoes per month by 2020 -

underpinning growing industry liquidity

U.S. LNG Driving Change in the Industry

Largescale resource base with strong

Government support for exports

Inter-project competition driving innovation Diversification from oil indexation

1532

2080 2202

2691 2884 3141

0

1000

2000

3000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Non-shale Shale EIA Proved Reserves

U.S. Future Supply of Natural Gas (1)

Source: (1) Potential Gas Committee, 2017; EIA (Proved Reserves), (2) Cheniere Research, Primary FOB Customers Only, 100% UF, 170,000 cm vessel

(3) Cheniere interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data (Q1 2017)

Tcf

Visualization of possible mid-scale trains at Corpus Christi - Source: Cheniere

0

10

20

30

0

20

40

60

80

2016 2017 2019 2020

US Cargoes /

month (Left Axis) No of companies

lifting US LNG

(Right Axis)

J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O

2018

U.S. Supply & FOB Customers (2)

Ca

rgoes /

Mo

nth

No

. o

f F

OB

Cu

sto

me

rs

LNG Contracts by Price Index (3)

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

mtp

a

Henry HubEurope gasHybridOilLNG demand

Oil index

HH index

LNG trade

forecast

Mid-

scale

trains

Page 7: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

Global LNG balance – 2015 to Aug 2017

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2014 2015 2016 2017

MT

/mo

nth

Supply:

Australia + US

Imports: UK +

Netherlands +

Belgium

Where did

the

incremental

global supply

go?

~60 MT

Note: countries with less than +/-3 mt increment were aggregated

Rising supply not yet overflowing into N. Europe

-20 -10 0 10 20

Japan

Brazil

South Korea

Mexico

Others -ve

France

Italy

UAE

Taiwan

Thailand

Spain

Pakistan

Jordan

India

Egypt

China

Others +ve

MT imported Jan 2015 to Aug 2017 above 2014 levels

Incremental imports since 2014

Source: Waterborne Data, Graph based on Akos Losz/ Teddy Kott – CGEP (2017)

+100

MT

-40

MT

Net

~60

MT

New

importers

in 2015

Page 8: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

Market Balance 2017

8

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Supply

Asia

ME

NA

Lat A

m

N.A

merica

M.E

uro

pe

N.E

uro

pe

mt

Jan-Dec YOY (2017 v 2016)

Supply & regional imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MT

M

2017

2016

China LNG imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

MT

M

Northern Europe LNG imports

2017 2016

Source: IHS Waterborne (2018)

Range: 2011- 2015

Range: 2011- 2015

Note: Northern Europe = U.K., Netherlands, Belgium

Page 9: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

0

5

10

15

20

25

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$/M

MB

tu

Note: Asia L-T Contract Proxy = 14.85% Japan Crude Cocktail (3-month average)+ $0.50/MMBtu; same formula is used with Brent crude oil prices for forward curves

Global Gas Prices (as of 3/1/2018)*

9

Oil parity

Asia L-T

Contract

Proxy

Asia

Spot

LNG

TTF

Henry Hub

Forward Curves

5

10

15

Q4 ‘17 Q1 ‘18 Cal. ‘18

Brent $57.1 /bbl $66.07 /bbl $65.93/ bbl

JKM $7.92 $10.31 $8.10

TTF $6.39 $6.76 $6.43

HH $2.93 $2.89 $2.85

Source: Bloomberg, CME, ICE, Platts, Japan Ministry of Finance, Cheniere Research * 3rd Jan 2018

Page 10: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

Europe LNG Imports to 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

mtp

a

10

Source: Various research house views (2016); Wood Mackenzie, FACTS Global Energy, IHS, PIRA, Gas Strategies, Poten and Partners

Views of various research houses

Expected growth of ~30 to ~40 mtpa

This was the outlook in

January 2017

Page 11: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

Europe LNG Imports to 2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

mtp

a

11

Source: Various research house views; Wood Mackenzie, FACTS Global Energy, IHS, PIRA, Gas Strategies, Poten and Partners

Views of various research houses

Expected growth of ~30 mtpa

2016 actual

2017 actual

January 2018 update

Range of views

in January 2017

Page 12: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

0

200

400

600

2010 2015 ' 2035

bcm

a

Determining factors

Overall Demand

Economic Growth

Coal / Carbon price

Oil price

LNG

Global supply / demand balance

Russian pipe-gas

Near-term: market share vs SMRC

Longer-term: LRMC

Other pipe-gas

Norway

Algeria

Southern Corridor (expansion)

Indigenous production

Groningen Cap

North Sea decline rate

12

European Gas Supply to 2035

Source: Cheniere interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data (H2 2017)

Europe (EU 28 + 6) supply

Indigenous

Production

Other

Piped

Russia

Piped

LNG

12

Page 13: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

Algeria 7%

Nigeria 15%

Trinidad 10%

Egypt 3% E.G.

2% Norway

3%

Angola 4%

Cameroon 1%

US 42%

Russia W 13%

13

Source: Cheniere interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data (Q4 2017)

Algeria 24%

Nigeria 37%

Trinidad 24%

E.G. 7%

Norway 8%

2015 AB LNG supply (53 mtpa, 22% of global supply)

2020 AB LNG supply (134 mtpa, 35% of global supply)

Atlantic Basin LNG Supply & Markets

U.S. to become largest supplier in the Atlantic Basin by 2020

Spain Portugal

France Belgium Netherlands UK

Italy Greece Turkey

Israel

Poland Lithuania

Brazil

Argentina

Puerto Rico Dominican Rep. Mexico Egypt

Canada U.S.

U.S.

Trinidad

Algeria

Norway

Nigeria

E.G.

Angola

Import markets (existing and u/c)

Export countries (existing and u/c)

Russia W.

Cameroon

Jamaica

Malta

Colombia

Uruguay

Ghana

Atlantic Basin LNG projects;

Existing or Under construction

Page 14: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

LNG Supply vs. Demand to 2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

mtp

a

14

Qatar

LNG trade

forecast

Australia

New

supply

Supply:

existing and

under

construction

Source: Cheniere Research estimates; Woodmac for historical figures

USA

2015 to 2030

CAGR(%) = 4.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

Malaysia US Qatar Australia

mtp

a

Production capacity 2015/

2020 [1]

2015

2020

Page 15: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

15

Slowdown in LNG supply project FIDs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

502

00

4

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Other Aus US Qatar

Qatar Hiatus Australia US

FIDs per annum (total volume)

Source: Cheniere interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data (Q1 2017)

mtpa

Hiatus

Page 16: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

Conclusions

1. An LNG-driven transformation of global gas is underway

Flexible U.S. LNG ramping up and responding to market signals

Driving development of an interconnected and more liquid global market-place

Europe acting as the balancing market for LNG

2. Flexible LNG set to have a growing role in Europe

LNG provides supply diversification, supply competition, a transparent pricing point and volume flexibility

Declining domestic supply means that both LNG and pipeline supplies will be required

U.S. as the largest Atlantic Basin LNG supplier by 2020 well-placed to provide baseload & flexible LNG to Europe

3. Forecast LNG oversupply is not yet evident in the current market

Global LNG markets responding to lower prices & increased LNG accessibility; government policies favouring gas

LNG supply into Europe still expected to grow over next few years

Global markets will need additional LNG supply early next decade - will ‘Europe’ be a passive or active player?

16

Page 17: CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. · looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in “Risk Factors” in the Cheniere Energy, Inc., Cheniere Energy Partners,

Thank You

17