Chapter 9

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MANAGEMENT of

The Key to Competitiveness and Wealth Creation

TECHNOLOGY

Tarek Khalil | Ravi Shankar

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Technology Planning

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TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING: CONTRIBUTION OF TIFAC

• The task of looking at the past trends in different technologies of national importance, assessing their future trajectory, and supporting technology innovation in India has been entrusted to Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council (TIFAC)

• The major objectives of TIFAC are:– To set up specialized sub-groups for examining and evaluating

the existing state-of-the-art technology and direction of future technological developments in various cross-sectoral areas as well as in other sectors of the economy, both in India and abroad and to prepare technology forecasting reports, covering 10 years or longer periods, especially in production areas involving (a) substantial investments of financial resources and (b) a large volume of production.

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TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING: CONTRIBUTION OF TIFAC (Contd.)• The major objectives of TIFAC are:

– To obtain from appropriate sources and project the estimates of the nature and quantum of the likely demands of goods and services in various sectors of the economy against 10 and 25 years' time-frames on the basis of (a) ‘normative' and (b) ‘exploratory' approaches and to suggest the direction and extent of technological changes that might be considered necessary in order to fulfill these demands in the light of the existing or anticipated resource base of the country

– To prepare Technology Impact Statements, with a view to uncovering the likely implications and consequences, both desirable and undesirable, of the existing as well as newly emerging technologies upon society, indicating to decision-makers, through generation of future-oriented scenarios, their short-term and long-term implications

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TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING: CONTRIBUTION OF TIFAC (Contd.)• The major objectives of TIFAC are:

– To prepare Technology Forecasting and Analysis (TIF&A) Studies aiming at: (a) ensuring timely availability of requisite technologies relevant to the needs of the country on futuristic basis and minimizing the time gap between the development of new technologies and their utilization and (b) establishing a purposeful linkage between technology development and technology import policies so as (i) to identify priority areas of research in relation to the socio-economic, environmental and security needs of the country; (ii) to evolve and suggest strategies for technological developments based on such priorities; and (iii) to draw up programmes of purposeful research in various sectors

– To devise and set up suitable Information Collection, Analysis, and Programming groups

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TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING: CONTRIBUTION OF TIFAC (Contd.)

• TIFAC took a major initiative in year 1999 to formulate ‘Technology Vision 2020' document

• TIFAC has developed useful Technology Road Maps (TRM) for areas such as TRM for Indian Aluminum Industry

• Under its ‘Technology Refinement and Marketing Programme' (TREMAP), it facilitates innovative technologies towards commercialization

• In the agriculture sector, it has undertaken project in different areas

• In the bio-products and bio-processes area, it is active in many core priorities

TIFAC Office Located at Vishwakarma Bhawan, New

Delhi

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• Patent Facilitating Centre (PFC) of TIFAC aims at creating awareness on intellectual property rights (IPR) by providing assistance to educational institutions in this area

• As per DST, three major technology missions are being implemented by TIFAC in addition to promotion of about 50 Home Grown Technologies: Technology Forecasting (TF), Technology Assessment (TA) and Techno Market Survey (TMS) Studies

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TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING: CONTRIBUTION OF TIFAC (Contd.)• REACH (Relevance and Excellence

in ACHieving new heights in educational institutions) aims to develop world-class expertise by providing training and educational solutions in areas of high technological importance for industry and society

• The three major stakeholders in this systems are academia, industry and government. The REACH provides a triangular linkages among these stakeholders

• By 2010–11, 31 Centres of Relevance and Excellence (COREs) have been set up in institutions all over the length and width of India

REACH Mission of TIFAC

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• The overall national macro-level planning in India is the job of Planning Commission

• For the 12th five-year plan (covering years April 2012 to 2017), it has put a major focus on instilling ‘inclusive growth‘

• This requires emphasis on the technology leapfrogging in the areas such as manufacturing, agriculture, education, health, social welfare, etc.

• The role of TIFAC is going to be very crucial in providing the practical and implementable technology road maps that can create employment through developing India's manufacturing and services sectors and move the nation higher up the value chain

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INTRODUCTION

• Technology planning is a central component of corporate business planning

• There is a difference between strategizing and planning, which Hamel (1996) considers the difference between discovering and programming

• Planning is essential for successful strategy implementation and evaluation

• The process used in planning is in itself at least as important as the plan developed. The process includes:– Examining all points of view in the organization– Setting clear, realistic objectives– Charting a path or paths toward achieving those objectives– Obtaining commitment for execution– Executing and following up on the plan

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INTRODUCTION (Contd.)

Technology Planning Framework

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INTRODUCTION (Contd.)

Technology Planning

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FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY

Growth Pattern and Possible Future State of a Technology

• Traditional forecasting methods depend, to a great extent, on projecting past performance into the future

• The problem of predicting the future is more difficult with technology that is experiencing rapid change

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FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY (Contd.)

Technology Discontinuity

• Leaders become losers if they fail to recognise discontinuity and deal with technology’s diminishing returns

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.FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY

(Contd.)

S-Curves of Transportation Speed

• The cumulative curve is used to forecast maximum transportation speed

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Technology S-Curves for Progress in Lamp Technology

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Trend Extrapolation of Efficiency of White Light

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Technology Trend Chart for Chip Density

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• This type of diagram forecasts changes in the characteristics of future products

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• A good forecast must have:– Credibility and utility– An accurate information base– Clearly described methods and models– Clearly defined and supported assumptions– Quantitative expression whenever possible– A stated level of confidence in the forecasted

information

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• Porter et al. (1991) indicate that the attributes of technology most often forecast are:– Growth in functional capability– Rate of replacement of an old technology by a newer one– Market penetration– Diffusion– Likelihood and timing of technological breakthroughs

• They describe five methods of technology forecasting:– Monitoring– Expert opinion– Trend analysis– Modelling– Scenarios

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Forecasting MethodsMonitoring

Description

Monitoring is the process of scanning the environment for information about the subject of a forecast. It is not really a forecasting technique, but rather a method for gathering and organising information. The sources of information are identified and then information is gathered, filtered, and structured for use in forecasting

AssumptionsThe environment contains information useful for a forecast, and the information can somehow be obtained

StrengthsMonitoring can provide large amounts of useful information from a wide range of sources

WeaknessesInformation overload can result without selectivity, filtering, and structure

Uses

To maintain current awareness of an area and the information with which to forecast as needed. To provide information useful for structuring a forecast and for the forecast itself

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Expert opinion

Description The opinions of experts in a particular area are obtained and analysed

Assumptions

Some individuals know significantly more about parts of the world than others thus their forecast will be substantially better. If multiple experts are used, group knowledge will be superior to that of an individual expert

Strengths Expert forecast can tap high-quality models internalised by experts who cannot or will not make them explicit

Weaknesses

It is difficult to identify experts. Their forecasts are often wrong. Questions posed to them are often ambiguous and unclear, and the design of the process often is weak. If interaction among experts is allowed, the forecast may be affected by extraneous social and psychological factors

UsesTo forecast when identifiable experts in an area exist and where data are lacking and modeling is difficult or impossible


Forecasting Methods

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Forecasting MethodsTrend analysis

Description

Trend analysis uses mathematical and statistical techniques to extend time series data into the future. Techniques for trend analysis vary in sophistication from simple curve fitting to Box-Jenkins techniques

Assumptions

Past conditions and trends will continue in the future more or less unchanged

StrengthsIt offers a substantial, databased forecast of quantifiable parameters and is especially accurate over short time frames

Weaknesses

It often requires a significant amount of good data to be effective, works only for quantifiable parameters, and is vulnerable to cataclysms and discontinuities. Forecast can be very misleading for long time frames. Trend analysis techniques do not explicitly address causal mechanisms

UsesTo project quantifiable parameters and to analyse adoption and substitution of technologies

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Forecasting MethodsModeling

Description

A model is a simplified representation of the structure and dynamics of some part of the real world. The dynamics of a model can be used to forecast the behaviour of the system being modeled. Models range from flow diagrams, simple equations, and scale models, to sophisticated computer simulations

AssumptionsThe basic structure and processes of parts of the world can be captured by simplified representations

Strengths

Models can exhibit the future behaviour of complex systems simply by isolating important system aspects from unessential detail. Some models offer frameworks for incorporating human judgment. The model building process can provide excellent insight into complex system behaviour for the modeler

Weaknesses

Sophisticated techniques may obscure faulty assumptions and provide a spurious credibility for poor forecasts. Models usually favor quantifiable over non-quantifiable parameters, thereby neglecting potentially important factors. Models that are not heavily databased may be misleading.

Uses To reduce complex systems to manageable representations

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.FORECASTING TECHNOLOGY

(Contd.)Forecasting MethodsScenarios

Description

Scenarios are sets of snapshots of some aspect of the future and/or future histories leading from the present to the future. The scenario set encompasses the plausible range of possibilities for some aspect of the future.

Assumptions

The full richness of future possibilities can be reasonably incorporated in a set of imaginative descriptions. Usable forecasts can be constructed from a very narrow database

Strengths

They can present rich, complex portraits of possible futures and incorporate a wide range of quantitative and qualitative information produced by other forecasting techniques. They are an effective way of communicating forecasts to a wide variety of users

Weaknesses They may be more fantasy than forecast, unless a firm basis in reality is maintained by the forecaster

Uses

To integrate quantitative and qualitative information when both are critical, to integrate forecasts from various sources and techniques into a coherent picture, and to provide a forecast when data are too weak to use other techniques. They are most useful in forecasting and in communicating complex, highly uncertain situations to non-technical audiences

Source: A. Porter et al., Forecasting and Management of Technology. © 1991, John Wiley and Sons Inc. Reprinted with permission of John

Wiley and Sons Inc.

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CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES AND TECHNOLOGY MAPS

• National Critical Technologies– Planning for the future requires a deep

understanding of the changes in the technological scene

– The technology included in these lists is determined by a set of criteria

– A generic technology usually requires subsequent research and development, generally by the private sector, to result in commercial applications

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CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES AND TECHNOLOGY MAPS (Contd.)

National Critical Technologies

Dept. of Commerce Emerging Technologies

Dept. of Defense Critical Technologies

Materials

• Materials synthesis and processing• Electronic and photonics materials• Ceramics• Composites• High-performance metals and alloys

• Advanced materials• Advanced semiconductor devices• Superconductors• Advanced material

• Composite materials• Semiconductor materials and microelectronic circuits• Superconductors• Composite material

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Manufacturing

• Flexible computer-integrated manufacturing• Intelligent processing equipment• Micro and nanofabrication• System management technologies

• Flexible computer-integrated manufacturing• Artificial intelligence

• Machine intelligence and robotics

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Information and Communications

• Software•Microelectronics and optoelectronics•High performance computing and networking• High-definition imaging and displays• Sensors and signal processing• Data storage and peripherals• Computer simulation and modelling

• High-performance computing•Advanced semiconductor devices•Optoelectronics•High performance computing•Digital imaging•Sensor technology•High density data storage•High performance computing

• Software producibility• Semiconductor materials and microelectronics circuits• Photonics• Parallel computer architecture• Data fusion• Signal processing• Passive sensors• Sensitive radars• Machine intelligence and robotics• Simulation and modeling• Computational fluid dynamics

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Biotechnology and Life Sciences

• Applied molecular biology• Medical technology

• Biotechnology• Medical devices and diagnostics

• Biotechnology materials and processes

Aeronautics and Surface Transportation• Aeronautics• Surface transportation technologies

•Air-breathing propulsion

Energy and Environment

• Energy technologies• Pollution minimisation, remediation, and waste management

• No national critical technologies counterpart: high-energy density materials, hypervelocity projectiles, pulsed power, signature control, weapon system environment

Source: National Critical Technologies Panel, 1991

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• Critical Technologies at the Firm Level– Betz (1987) proposed that the concepts of technology

push and market pull be used to map the areas and direction of rapid technological change

– He developed a technology map of the 1980s showing dominant areas of such change and classified the areas into six categories:

Components Devices Processes Systems Materials and resources Services

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.CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES AND TECHNOLOGY MAPS

(Contd.)

Technology Map of the 1980s: Devices Sou

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CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES AND TECHNOLOGY MAPS

(Contd.)

Map of Technologies Relating to Computer Systems

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TECHNOLOGY AUDIT• A technology audit is an analysis performed to identify the

strengths and weaknesses of the technological assets of an organization

• According to Ford (1988), a technology audit should provide answers to the following questions:– What are the technologies and know-how on which the business

depends?

– How does the company’s technology position compare to its competitors? Is it a leader, a follower, or a laggard?

– What is the life cycle position on which the company depends?

– Where is the company’s strength? Is it in product or production technologies or a combination of technologies?

– Is the company effectively protecting its distinctive core technologies?

– What emerging or developing technologies, inside or outside the company, could affect its technological position?

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TECHNOLOGY AUDIT (Contd.)– What is the value of the company’s technology to its customers? Is

there a big technology gap that gives the company an advantage in knowledge as well as in pricing its products?

– Does the company have a systematic procedure and a supporting organizational structure that allows optimal exploitation of its technologies internally and externally?

– Does the company have technological assets that it can share with other companies? Some of the ideas that need to be explored include selling technology that is no longer of use to the company, creating joint ventures to exploit the company’s areas of strength, and transfering technology to another company or country.

– What emerging or developing technologies, both inside and outside the company, could influence customers or affect the company’s market position?

– What social, political, or environmental factors might impede the natural progress of the company’s technological plans?

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TECHNOLOGY AUDIT MODEL

TAM Structure

• The model is based on the following six categories:– Technological environment

– Technologies categorisation

– Markets and competitors

– Innovation process

– Value-added functions

– Acquisition and exploitation of technology

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.TECHNOLOGY AUDIT MODEL

(Contd.)

Tam Audit Checklist

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(Contd.)

Tam Audit Checklist

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(Contd.)

Tam Audit Checklist

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(Contd.)

Tam Audit Checklist

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(Contd.)

Tam Audit Checklist

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(Contd.)

Tam Audit Checklist

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(Contd.)

Tam Audit Checklist

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(Contd.)

Tam Audit Checklist

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TECHNOLOGY AUDIT MODEL (Contd.)

• A technology auditor should do the following:– Analyse the firm’s internal technologies (products and processes)

to identify core competencies– Identify external and basic technologies– Identify ‘technology gaps– Review the technology/science push and the market pull– Establish whether or not the innovation process takes into account

science push and market pull– Check time to market. Identify constraints in the process– Review the R&D strategy. Is it consistent with science push and

market pull?– Check for consistency between core technologies, R&D, and

marketing– Look for evidence of continuous improvement in manufacturing.– Analyse partnerships and joint ventures. Are they in line with the

overall strategy?– Review the technology transfer procedures. How is the company

ensuring that knowledge is preserved and transferred?– Analyse the corporate structure. Is it flexible? How is the

communication between layers?

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• The TAM process, or any other technology auditing process, can serve as a valuable tool for companies in a number of ways:– As a diagnostic tool for determining strengths and weaknesses– As method of identifying and targeting key opportunities for

improvement– As a tool for benchmarking with competitors in the same technology

or industry sector– As a tool for measuring the progress achieved and the effectiveness

of implemented programmes– As a tool for continuous improvement– As a self-assessment instrument leading to proper technology

planning

• Motorola’s Technology Road Map [According to Willyard and McClees (1987), an emerging-technology road map provides:]– An objective evaluation of Motorola’s capability in the technology– A comparison of Motorola’s capabilities and those of its competitors,

today and in the future– A forecast of the progress of technology

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• Motorola’s Technology Road Map [The product technology road map has eight sections:]– Description of the business

– Technology forecast

– Technology road map matrix

– Quality

– Allocation of resources

– Patent portfolio

– Product descriptions and status reports

– Minority report

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A Technology Road Map Matrix

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This matrix summarises the technological requirements for a future product—a broadcast automotive FM receiver

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PLANNING ACCORDING TO THE TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE

Technologies at Different Stages of The Life Cycle

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Technological Investment Mode

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THE B-TECH APPROACH TO PLANNING

Interaction of Business and Technology Strategies

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• Battelle, a leading institute involved in technological innovation and management, developed a comprehensive approach to technology planning

• This approach, known as B-TECH, was developed by Stacey and described by Bhalla (1987)

• The initial separation in the planning effort is desirable for a number of reasons (Bhalla, 1987):

– The two analyses require different inputs

– The planning for the business and technology aspects of the firm is often in a different state of development within the company, or the two have not been developed in a way that easily permits merging them

– Since the business aspects of planning sometimes submerge the technological ones in the ‘customary analysis,’ it is important to create a corporate culture that promotes the integration of technology and business and prevents one element from overwhelming the other

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.THE B-TECH APPROACH TO

PLANNING

Integrating Technology and Business Strategies: The B-Tech Approach

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• The B-TECH approach to integrating technology and business strategy has 11 steps

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THE B-TECH APPROACH TO PLANNING

• The Chief Technology Officer

– The CTO focuses on: Forecasting technology and analysing prospective acquisition targets

Building the company’s technical competence

Devising an acquisition plan for corporate-wide technology resources and maintaining a healthy technology portfolio

Developing formal and informal networks and technological alliances and ensuring that corporate cultures, people, and technology mesh well between the allied groups

Conducting technology audits

Allocating and structuring corporate technology resources

Organising programmes of technical education to increase the skill level of employees

Ensuring that technologies are transferred and disseminated throughout the company

Gatekeeping all technologies in the company’s portfolio

Protecting the intellectual and technological rights of the company

Exploiting other companies’ technologies without compromising his or her company’s distinctive competitive advantages

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WEBLINKS• http://www.tifac.org.in/

• http://www.dst.gov.in/autonomous/tifac.htm

• http://www.missionreach.org.in/

• http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/planrel/12appdrft/12appdrft.htm

• http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-12-16/science/30524424_1_cell-research-spare-embryos-extra-embryos

• http://stemcells.nih.gov/info/health.asp

• http://www.stempeutics.com/

Chapter 9

Documents