Chapter 6: Political Parties, Campaigns, and Elections - AFSA ...

Chapter 9: Nominations,

Elections, and Campaigns

What the heck is the Electoral College?

Section 1: The Evolution of

Campaigning Election campaign – a coordinated attempt to

persuade the electorate to support a specific candidate.

Elections are shifting from party centered to candidate centered.

Candidates now use polling, consultants, and the media to do what parties used to do

Parties are help to fund and provide some services to candidate centered campaigns

Candidates now have to campaign for the nomination before they campaign for office.

Section 2: Nominations

Nomination for Congress and State Offices Nominations are unique to the U.S. party system

Party members choose who will represent them in the general election

Primary Elections An election – just like November, but only one party on

the ballot (usually)

Most common nomination process

System differs from state to state

LOW turnout – those that do turnout are from the more…intense wing of the parties

Not usually much competition in primaries – especially for incumbents

Section 2: Nominations

Section 2: Nominations

Nomination for Congress and State Offices 4 Types of Primary Elections

Closed primaries require voters to be registered members of the party in order to participate

Open primaries allow anyone to participate in the election

Modified closed primaries which allow state parties to determine if unaffiliated voters can participate in the primary

Modified open primaries allow those who are unaffiliated to choose any party ballot and vote

Top 2 or Blanket Primary Everyone on the ballot, top two go on to general,

regardless of party

Louisiana, Washington, California

Section 2: Nominations

Section 2: Nominations

Nomination for President National Convention used to be where the candidate

for President and Vice President were selected by each party.

National Convention now is more of a pro-forma vote

Since 1960s candidate has been determined before the convention through the delegate selection process

Selecting Convention Delegates Presidential Primary to award delegates

Democrats – Proportional representation

Republicans – Mix of “winner-take-all” and proportional representation

Caucuses/Conventions to award delegates LocalCountyStateNational

At each level delegates are selected to represent a candidate and move to the next level

Meetings where candidates and platforms are discussed

Section 2: Nominations

Campaigning for the Nomination Our system is unique.

“Invisible Primary” begins LONG before even primaries

Iowa and New Hampshire – first to vote seen as very important IA narrows the field, NH vets the candidates

Move has been to “front load” the primary season – move primaries and caucuses earlier in the season to increase their importance in the process

Section 2: Nominations

Consequences of primary process: Without an incumbent, primaries in both parties are

contested

If there is an incumbent, he usually has no competition

Opposition party usually sees many candidates 2012 – 12 Republicans

Iowa and New Hampshire matter

Candidates favored by most party identifiers usually win their party’s nomination.

Candidates who win the nomination owe little to the national party.

Section 3: Elections

General election is held the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Each time we elect all representatives from the

Minnesota and national House of Representatives as well as 1/3 of the Senators.

State officials, judges and local officials are on the ballot as well.

Every four years the following are selected (not necessarily in the same year): President

Minnesota state Senators

Minnesota statewide offices Governor

Attorney General

Auditor

Secretary of State

Section 3: Elections

Presidential Elections and the Electoral College:

National popular vote has no bearing on the winner

of the Presidential election.

President is elected by the Electoral College. How

does it work?

Each state is awarded a number of electors which is

equal to the number of Representatives from the state

plus the number of Senators from the state.

MN = 10 electors = 8 Representatives + 2 Senators

US = 538 electors = 435 Reps + 100 Senators + 3

for D.C.

Section 3: Elections

Who ever wins the popular vote in the state wins ALL

of that state’s electoral votes….except in Maine and

Nebraska

State awards two electoral votes to statewide

winner, and 1 electoral vote to whomever wins

the popular vote in each congressional district.

Federal election, president is chosen by the states

not the people.

Candidates must win a MAJORITY of electoral votes,

at least 270 in order to win the presidency.

If no candidate receives a majority, then the House

of Representatives selects the president. Each state

gets 1 vote.

Section 3: Elections

Before 1860 at least some states had their legislatures pick the

electors, rather than being chosen by popular vote of the state.

Why do we have the Electoral College?

Representation

How do we balance representation between big states and

small states in the presidential election?

Fear

The masses are asses. We must protect them from

themselves.

Knowledge

In the early days, how could candidates get around to inform

voters about themselves?

How could people learn about who was running?

Section 3: Elections

Is the Electoral College system a good thing or a

bad thing?

Pros:

Candidates must get support from states across

the nation to win. They cannot just carry one

region to win.

Since it is a winner-take-all system, small

numbers of voters can determine who wins the

state’s electoral vote.

Contributes to the stability of the nation –

promotes a two party system.

Gives states power in deciding the president

Saves us from nation-wide recounts

Section 3: Elections

Cons

Someone who did not receive the majority of the

popular vote could win the presidency.

Results do not always reflect the public will.

“Faithless” electors – electors may cast their vote

for whomever they choose.

Electoral College may reduce voter turnout

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Section 3: Elections

Broken Elections

1800 – Jefferson and Burr

Selected as Pres and Vice Pres, but tied.

Vote goes to the House, Jefferson selected

1824 – The Corrupt Bargain Quincy Adams v. Jackson

4 candidates – Jackson receives most electoral and popular votes

Henry Clay was Speaker of the House and came in 4th, dropped

when vote goes to the House

Clay supports Adams, who came in second, Adams wins.

1876 – Hayes (R) vs. Tilden (D)

Reconstruction – three states submitted conflicting voter totals

Tilden had won popular vote

Hayes is given the presidency with the understanding that he will

appoint a Democrat to his cabinet and remove troops from the

south, ending Reconstruction.

Section 3: Elections

Broken Elections

1888 – Cleveland (D) vs. Harrison (R)

Cleveland was running for re-election. Did not run a strong

campaign

Cleveland wins the popular vote, but not the electoral vote.

2000 – Bush (R) vs. Gore (D)

Controversy over Florida’s votes.

Lawsuits were filed and sent to the Supreme Court,

The Court ended the recount and awarded votes to Bush

Bush wins Electoral College, but not the popular vote.

2016 – Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D)

Trump wins Electoral College, but not the popular vote.

Trump 62,980,160 votes to Clinton 65,845,063

Section 3: Elections

Congressional Elections

If voters choose candidates all from one party they are said to vote a straight ticket.

If voters divide their vote between parties on a ballot, it is called voting a split ticket.

Congressional elections are “first-past-the-post” which is another way to say they are Single Member Districts selected by a plurality vote (which we talked about in chapter 7.)

Section 4: Campaigns

The Political Context

Campaigns are generally run between the incumbent, who already holds the office, and the challenger who is seeking to unseat the incumbent.

Incumbents have a natural advantage over challengers.

When there is no incumbent, it is called an open election

As a candidate one must consider:

Size of the district or state

Demographic make up of the district

Party preference of the district

Political issues facing the district

Section 4: Campaigns

Financing

Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) 1971

First time full disclosure of campaign contributions and campaign expenditures is required by law.

Creation of the Federal Election Commission (FEC) 1974

Strengthens the FECA and establishes the executive department to oversee election financing and distribution of public finances to candidates

Allowed creation of Political Action Committees (PACs) Can collect money and contribute to campaigns for federal office

Limits on hard money – direct donations to candidates – were set at $1,000 per person per candidate in a given election.

Supreme Court kept limits on campaign contributions, but struck limits on what individuals and groups could spend to independently support candidates.

Supreme Court said wealthy candidates are not limited in the amount of money that they can spend on their own campaigns.

Buckley v. Valeo

Section 4: Campaigns

Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act (BCRA) (McCain –

Feingold Act) 2002 (Took effect 2004)

Regulated money in campaigns

Raised limits of hard money to $2,000 per candidate, per

election during a two-year cycle. (Primary, general, runoff)

$5,000 per year to state parties or political committees

$20,000 to national party committees

Overall limit of $95,000 over a two year cycle.

$5,000 from PACs to a campaign

Banned large soft-money donations to national parties and

“issue ads” that named specific candidates in run-up to election

Allowed for the creation of 527 committees

Tax exempt issue advocacy groups that can spend as much as they

want on media advertising as long as it is not explicitly for or against a

specific candidate.

Section 4: Campaigns

FEC v. Wisconsin Right to Life – 2007 Ban on ads before election unconstitutional

Leads to the end of 527 committees in favor of 501(c)4 social

welfare organizations because they don’t have to report donors.

Citizens United v. FEC – 2010

Allows corporations, unions and trade organizations to

directly advocate for candidates.

Supreme Court 5-4 decision along ideological lines

Ruled that corporate funding of independent political

broadcasts in candidate elections cannot be limited.

Political speech cannot be denied because of the

speaker’s corporate identity.

Section 4: Campaigns

SpeechNow.org v. FEC – 2010

Creation of “independent expenditures only political

committees” or “Super PACs”

If they do not give money to candidates they can spend

unlimited amounts on campaigns.

Do not need to disclose donations from nonprofit groups

Not supposed to “coordinate” with campaigns – but many

have connections to the campaigns they support.

“Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow”

Section 4: Campaigns

McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission - 2014

Supreme Court 5-4 decision along ideological lines

Limit on contributions from individuals to candidates is

kept at $2,600.

Limits on the overall limits that an individual can spend

on candidates and political parties are

unconstitutional.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/04/02/us/polit

ics/supreme-court-ruling-campaign-finance.html

Section 4: Campaigns

Public Financing Presidential Campaigns

If a candidate raises at least $5,000 (in private donations

under $250 each) in 20 or more states, then they are

eligible for public financing.

Kerry, Bush, and Obama all refused public funding

during the primary elections.

Kerry and Bush did accept public financing limits during

the general election. Trump, Romney, Obama and

Clinton did not.

By accepting public monies they candidates are limited

to spending $37.3 million during the primaries and $74.6

during the general elections.

Candidates have NO limits on the amount they can

spend if they do not accept public funds.

Section 4: Campaigns

Future Trends in Campaign Finance

Public financing is less of a thing

Two major fundraising methods have made

private financing easier:

“Super Bundlers”

Professional fundraisers who collect

funds from individuals and corporations

for Candidates, PACs and Super PACs

The Internet

Section 4: Campaigns

Strategies and Tactics

Party Centered – relies on party identification solely. Works best when voters have little political knowledge

Issue Oriented – candidate take a stand on issues and hope for support from groups that agree with their positions.

Candidate-Oriented – candidate relies on their personal qualities

Issue and Candidate oriented strategies rely heavily on polling and political consultants

Making the News Candidates rely on the news to get free advertising.

Incumbents have a greater advantage due to the fact that they are already in office.

Name recognition is key in elections, and news helps get the name out, for free.

News often reports on political advertisements which increases that scope and affect of the paid for ad.

Section 4: Campaigns

Political Advertisements

First goal is name recognition

Other goals include: showing the positives of the candidates or pointing out the negatives of the opponents

Internet

Internet has increased the effectiveness of campaigns by:

Reducing costs

Increasing visibility

Increasing forums for getting out their message

Drawing in those who may not have been involved previously

Section 5: Explaining Voter Choice

Long-Term forces Party Identification

Party base almost completely supports their candidate

Independents break for one candidate or the other and determine the winner.

Short-Term forces Candidate’s personal characteristics

Most important to those who are not well informed

Candidate’s policy positions Less important than party identification or personal

characteristics Current state of state/nation

Campaigns are focusing more on swing states and districts. Focusing expenditures at the local, rather than national level.

Section 5: Explaining Voter Choice

Evaluating the Voting Choice Democratic theory states that voters should choose a

candidate based on their past performance and their proposed policies

Studies show candidate characteristics and party are what’s most important to voters

More alignment between party and ideological identification – makes party based voting more logical.

Campaign Effects Difficult to tease out

The Television Campaign TV news doesn’t give candidates much of a chance to talk,

so they focus on other free media options, such as entertainment shows.

Ads are the most important parts of the campaign.

Media is focused in swing states.

The Debates Usually 3 and 1 VP Debate

Can have a significant influence on the election

Section 6: Campaigns,

Elections and Parties

Parties and the Majoritarian Model

Parties make government aware of and responsive to public

opinion.

Party platform much less important outside of the

presidential election

Parties and the Pluralist Model

Parties function as two giant interest groups

Focus is not on running government, but electing candidates

Decentralized nature of election system allows for interest

groups to influence campaigns at a variety of levels.