Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings · Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents August 10, 2020 / Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings Yardeni

Predicting the Markets:Chapter 13 Charts:

Predicting Corporate EarningsYardeni Research, Inc.

November 6, 2020

Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist

Mali QuintanaSenior Economist

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

November 6, 2020 / Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Predicting Corporate Earnings 1-24

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2230

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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ consensus estimates, I/B/E/S data in dollars, monthly, ratio scale)

Oct

9596

97

9899 00

01 0203

04

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06

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0809

10

11

12

Analysts’ EstimatesAnnual*12-month forward**

* "Squiggles" span 25 months from February to February.** Time-weighted average of analysts’ consensus estimates for S&P 500 operating earnings per share for current year and next year.

*** Actual 4Q sum from I/B/E/S.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2230

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Actual 4Q sum***

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Figure 1.

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199510

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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ consensus estimates, I/B/E/S data in dollars, monthly, ratio scale)

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Analysts’ EstimatesAnnual*12-month forward**Actual 4Q sum***


*** Actual 4Q sum from S&P until Q4-1993, then from I/B/E/S.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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Figure 2.

Predicting Corporate Earnings

Page 1 / November 6, 2020 / Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings www.yardeni.com


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250

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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ consensus estimates, I/B/E/S data in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

10/29

Analysts’ EstimatesAnnual*52-week forward**Actual 4Q sum***



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Figure 3.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200840

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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ consensus estimates, I/B/E/S data in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Analysts’ EstimatesAnnual*52-week forward**Actual 4Q sum***



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Figure 4.




80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-60

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10.1

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS: ANALYSTS’ CONSENSUS ESTIMATES: 1980-2019*(I/B/E/S data)

(25-month percent change)

-11.

0

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7 -26.

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-5.9

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

* Percent change in analysts’ consensus estimates for S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each year shown from initial forecast to actual, e.g., fromFebruary 1979 to February 1981 for calendar year 1980.

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Figure 5.

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50

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S&P 500 NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*(percent, three-month basis)

Oct

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* Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentageof the total number of forward earnings estimates.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 6.




86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2410

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Q210/29

S&P 500 OPERATING PER SHARE(I/B/E/S data in dollars, ratio scale)

Earnings Per ShareOperating** (4Q sum) (145.2)Forward* (161.9)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly.** Actual 4Q sum from S&P until Q4-1993, then from I/B/E/S.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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Figure 7.

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2410

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S&P 500 OPERATING PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL(I/B/E/S data in dollars, ratio scale)

Q210/28

Earnings Per ShareOperating Earnings**(4Q sum)Forward Earnings*(pushed 52-weeks ahead)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly.** Actual 4Q sum from S&P until Q4-1993, then from I/B/E/S.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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Figure 8.




79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

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Oct

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS & VALUATION(monthly)

S&P 500IndexBlue AngelsImplied Index*

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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Figure 9.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022500

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x10 x11 x12 x13 x14 x15 x16 x17 x18 x19 x20 x21 x22 x23

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX, FORWARD EARNINGS & VALUATION(weekly)

S&P 500Index11/06/20Blue AngelsImplied Index*10/29/20

* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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Figure 10.




35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25.05

12.05

24.05

36.0548.05

.05

12.05

24.05

36.0548.05

S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE*(dollars, quarterly, ratio scale)

Q3

* Q4-2008 not shown because of large negative value.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 11.

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25

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S&P 500 OPERATING & REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (S&P data)(dollars, quarterly)

Q2

S&P 500 EarningsOperating (S&P data)Reported (S&P data)

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 12.




93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5

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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(dollars, quarterly)

Q2

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S&P 500 Operating EarningsI/B/E/S dataS&P data

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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Figure 13.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

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S&P 500 NET WRITE-OFFS PER SHARE(dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Q2

Q2

S&P 500 Net Write-OffsI/B/E/S Data*S&P Data**

* I/B/E/S operating less S&P reported earnings per share.** S&P operating less S&P reported earnings per share.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s (reported earnings) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating earnings).

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Figure 14.




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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-250

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INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT*(billion dollars, saar)

CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ADJUSTMENT*

* These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current costmeasures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 15.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-1000

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AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS: NIPA vs S&P 500(billion dollars, quarterly)

NIPA Profits (saar)Based on Tax Returns*From Current Production**

S&P 500 Net Income(annualized, nsa)

Operating (S&P data)Reported (S&P data)

* Excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCadj).** Including IVA & CCadj. These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and

depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 16.




70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2440

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Q2

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AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS: NIPA FROM CURRENT PRODUCTION vs S&P 500(billion dollars, quarterly, ratio scale)

After-Tax Adjusted ProfitsFrom Current Production (NIPA data)*S&P 500 OperatingNet Income (S&P data)**

* Annualized and seasonally adjusted. Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment. These two adjustments restatethe historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.

** Annualized and not seasonally adjusted. Q4-2008 not shown because of large negative value.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 17.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2420

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AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS: NIPA BOOK vs S&P 500(billion dollars, quarterly, ratio scale)

After-Tax Reported ProfitsBook Profits (NIPA data)*S&P 500 Reported Net Income(4-quarter sum)**

* Annualized and seasonally adjusted. Excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.** S&P GAAP data.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 18.




64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2405101520253035404550556065707580859095100105110115

05

101520253035404550556065707580859095

100105110115

Q2

S&P 500 AGGREGATE REPORTED NET INCOME (GAAP basis)(four-quarter sum as a percent of four-quarter sum of NIPA after-tax book profits*)

Capped inQ4-2008

* Profits reported on tax returns.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 19.

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22450

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S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: ACTUAL (S&P quarterly data) & FORWARD (TR weekly data)(dollars)

Revenues Per ShareForward*Actual (quarterly, annualized, nsa)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (for forward revenues).

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Figure 20.




92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222.5

4.5

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20.522.524.5

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20.522.524.5

Sep

Q2

Q2

S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES, NOMINAL GNP, and US BUSINESS SALES OF GOODS(trillion dollars, ratio scale)

S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues ( x 4, nsa)**Business Sales of Goods (saar)*Nominal GNP (saar)

** Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.* Manufacturing and trade sales.

Source: Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 21.

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2245

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S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES(as percent of US GNP and US business sales)

S&P 500 Revenues* / Business Sales**S&P 500 Revenues* / Nominal GNP

* Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.** Manufacturing and trade sales.

Source: Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 22.




50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2475

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1207515075

Q2

NOMINAL GNP & AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS(Q4-1949=100, ratio scale)

Nominal GNP7% Growth Path*

After-Tax Corporate ProfitsReported to IRSFrom Current Production**

* Compounded monthly to yield 7% annually.** Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment, which restate the historical cost basis used in profits

tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 23.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 243

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203243283

3

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203243283

Oct

Q2

S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE With 5%-7% CAGR GROWTH PATHS*(dollars, ratio scale)

S&P 500 Earnings Per ShareReported (GAAP)(4-quarter sum)Operating**(4-quarter sum)Forward***

7%

5%

* Compounded monthly to yield 5% and 7% annually.** Excluding write-offs. Thomson Reuters data.

*** S&P 500 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year andnext year.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 24.




35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25.1

20.1

40.1

60.180.1100.1

.1

20.1

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100.1

S&P 500 REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHAREWITH 5%-7% CAGR GROWTH PATHS*

(dollars, Q4-1934 = 0.18, ratio scale)Q3

5%

6%

7%

* Q4-2008 not shown because of large negative value.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 25.

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 254

2004

4004

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4004

60048004

1000412004

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S&P 500 INDEX PRICE WITH 4% TO 7% CAGR GROWTH PATHS(base period Dec 1934 = 9.26, ratio scale)

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

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Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 26.




93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25

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S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & US NOMINAL GNP(yearly percent change)

S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues*Nominal GNP

* Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 27.

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25

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S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & US BUSINESS SALES OF GOODS(yearly percent change)

S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues*Business Sales of Goods**

** Manufacturing and trade sales.* Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.

Source: Bureau of the Census and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.




92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12

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S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (S&P data) & REPORTED MARGIN (S&P data)(percent, quarterly)

S&P 500 MarginsS&P OperatingS&P Reported (GAAP)


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Figure 29.

47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25-2

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S&P 500 REPORTED PROFIT MARGIN & AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS MARGIN( excluding IVA & CCAdj*)

Q2

Q2

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S&P 500 Profit Margin: Reported(percent)

Corporate Profits After Tax*(as a percent of nominal GNP)

Capped at 0

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

* After-tax profits as reported to IRS excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj). These twoadjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measuresused in GNP.

Source: Standard & Poor’s and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.




47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 252

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CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAX*(as a percent of nominal GNP)

Q2

* After-tax profits as reported to IRS excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj). These twoadjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measuresused in GNP.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Figure 31.

47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2560

65

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60

65

70

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COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES + PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT(as a percent of nominal GNP)

Q2

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Figure 32.




2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20224

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Q2

Q2

S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN MEASURES(percent)

S&P 500 Operating Profit Margins52-week Forward*Thomson Reuters (Trailing 4Q)S&P (Trailing 4Q)

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating estimates for current and next years.Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (for forward revenues).

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Figure 33.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202230

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S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL(dollars)

Earnings Per ShareThomson ReutersOperating(Trailing 4Q)S&P Operating(Trailing 4Q)Forward*


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Figure 34.




2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022650

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Q2

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: FORWARD (TR data) & ACTUAL (S&P data)(dollars)

Revenues Per Share52-Week Forward*Actual (Trailing 4Q)


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Figure 35.

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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250

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S&P 500 BUYBACKS, DIVIDENDS, & OPERATING EARNINGS(billion dollars, trailing four-quarter)

BuybacksDividendsOperating EarningsBuybacks+Dividends

Buybacks+Dividendsas percent ofOperating Earnings


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Figure 36.




80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2265

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S&P 500 COMPANIES PAYING A DIVIDEND(percent of total)


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Figure 37.

64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-50

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DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIOS(percent)

S&P 500 Dividends(as a percent of S&P 500 reported net income)

NIPA Dividends(as a percent of NIPA After-Tax Profits*)

* From Current Production. Including IVA & CCadj. These two adjustments restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventorywithdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 38.




46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24.2

20.2

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80.2100.2

.2

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80.2100.2

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S&P 500 DIVIDENDS & RETAINED EARNINGS PER SHARE(dollars, trailing 4-quarter sum, ratio scale)

DividendsRetained Earnings*

* Reported earnings minus dividends per share.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 39.

45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25.7

50.7

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200.7250.7300.7350.7

.7

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150.7

200.7250.7300.7350.7

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S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER DIVIDENDS WITH 5% TO 8% CAGR GROWTH PATHS(base period Dec 1946 = 0.71, ratio scale)

5%

6%

7%

8%

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Figure 40.




60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2420

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CORPORATE CASH FLOW(ratio scale, billion dollars, saar)

Corporate Cash Flow*

Tax-Reported Depreciation***Economic Depreciation**

* After-tax retained earnings plus tax-reported depreciation.** Corporate capital consumption allowances.

*** Corporate capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 41.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-250

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CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ADJUSTMENT*(billion dollars, saar)

Tax-Reported > Economic Depreciation

Tax-Reported < Economic Depreciation

* This adjustment is used to restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 42.




50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2410

510

1010

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2010251030103510

10

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2010251030103510

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CORPORATE & NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS (NFC): CASH FLOW(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Corporate Cash Flow*NFC Cash Flow (BEA measure)**NFC Internal Funds (Fed measure)

* After-tax retained earnings plus tax-reported depreciation.** After-tax operating retained earnings plus tax-return-based depreciation.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Flow of Funds Accounts.

yardeni.com

Figure 43.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.2

.6

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Q2

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS(trillion dollars, 4-quarter sum, ratio scale)

Nonfinancial CorporateCapital Expenditures*Internal Cash Flow

* Includes nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment, and inventory change with IVA.Source: Flow of Funds Accounts.

yardeni.com

Figure 44.




80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.1

.3

.5

.7

.9

1.1

1.3

1.51.71.92.12.3

.1

.3

.5

.7

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1.1

1.3

1.51.71.92.12.3

Q2

Q2NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS(trillion dollars, 4-quarter sum, ratio scale)

Nonfinancial CorporateGross Fixed InvestmentCapital Consumption Allowance*

* Consumption of fixed capital plus the capital consumption adjustment.Source: Flow of Funds Accounts.

yardeni.com

Figure 45.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

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Q2

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

Net Fixed Investment*

* Gross fixed investment less consumption of fixed capital plus the capital consumption adjustment.Source: Flow of Funds Accounts.

yardeni.com

Figure 46.




94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-900

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Q2

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: NET NEW ISSUES(billion dollars, 4-quarter sum)

NFC Net New Issues

EquitiesBonds

Source: Flow of Funds Accounts.

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Figure 47.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

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Oct

Q3

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S&P 500 DIVIDENDS & BUYBACKS(billion dollars, annualized)

Buybacks

Dividends

S&P 500 Index


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Figure 48.




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Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings · Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents August 10, 2020 / Chapter 13 Charts: Predicting Corporate Earnings Yardeni

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