Predicting the Markets: Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc. February 18, 2021 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana Senior Economist [email protected]Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box
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Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting CurrenciesChapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies Yardeni Research, Inc. October 1, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana
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Q3TOTAL VALUE OF US STOCKS(trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale)
US Equity Issues at Market Value
Total Ex Foreign Issues*Total
* Total excluding market value of holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs)by US residents.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.
FOREIGN EQUITIES HELD BY US RESIDENTS(as percent of total market value of equities held by US residents)
Foreign EquitiesShare in US*
* Market value of holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by US residentsas a percent of the market value of their total equity holdings.Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States.
Q3CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD*(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)
* Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profitstax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD*(as a percent of pre-tax corporate profits)
* Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profitstax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
* Countries included in the Advanced Foreign Economies (AFE) index: Australia, Canada, Euro Area, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, andthe United Kingdom.
** Countries included in the Broad Dollar Index: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Euro Area, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia,Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Vietnam.Source: Federal Reserve Board.
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, ratio scale) 2/17
* Weekly from January 9, 1951 to May 26, 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops,hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(daily)
JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate**(inverted scale)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,
Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan.
INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(daily)
JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate*(inverted scale)
Brent Crude Oil Price(dollars per barrel)
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics.
JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate*(inverted scale)
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International.
NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES: ADVANCED & EMERGING ECONOMIES(trillion dollars, ratio scale)
International Reserves Held By:Advanced Economies*Emerging Economies
* Includes United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland,Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.
CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*(billion dollars)
* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit).Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.
WORLD EX-US: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS*(billion dollars)
* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus with US (i.e., US trade deficit multiplied by -1.0).Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.
IMPLIED WORLD EX-US CAPITAL FLOWS& TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change)
JP Morgan NominalBroad EffectiveExchange Rate**(inverted scale)
Implied World Ex-USCapital Flows*
* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). US trade deficit multiplied by -1.0.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,
Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: IMF and JP Morgan.
WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (12-month change, billion dollars)& TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change)
JP Morgan NominalBroad EffectiveExchange Rate**(inverted scale)
World Non-GoldInternational Reserves*(12-month change)
* 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). US trade deficit multiplied by -1.0.** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,
Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: IMF and JP Morgan.
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