Dec 28, 2015
ChallengesChallenges
• Weak Prospects For Economic Weak Prospects For Economic Growth Growth
• High Population Growth High Population Growth
• Poor Development of Human Poor Development of Human Resource And Infrastructure Resource And Infrastructure
• Fragile Social Protection Mechanism Fragile Social Protection Mechanism
PRS PillarsPRS Pillars
• Achieving Economic Growth Achieving Economic Growth
• Human Resources Development Human Resources Development • Improving InfrastructureImproving Infrastructure
• Ensuring Social Protection Ensuring Social Protection • Improving Governance And Improving Governance And
Broadening Participation & Broadening Participation & Collaboration Collaboration
SLOW ProgressSLOW Progress
• The Events Of 9/11 And The War In Iraq The Events Of 9/11 And The War In Iraq • Acts Of Terrorism In YemenActs Of Terrorism In Yemen
• Slow Economic Reforms Slow Economic Reforms • Limited Returns From Partial Limited Returns From Partial
Membership In The GCCMembership In The GCC
• Partial Knowledge And Commitment To Partial Knowledge And Commitment To Carrying Out PRS Goals Carrying Out PRS Goals
ItemItemAverageAverageAchievementAchievementTargetTarget
2001200120022002AverageAverage20032003**
20042004**
AverageAverage2003200320042004
GDPGDP4.94.94.74.74.84.83.33.33.63.63.53.53.73.75.35.3
Per capita Per capita GDPGDP
1.41.41.51.51.41.40.10.1--0.20.20.10.10.50.52.12.1
*Provisional
Economic ProgressEconomic Progress
Economic ProgressEconomic Progress
ItemItemGrowthGrowthContribution Contribution to GDPto GDP
2001200120022002AverageAverage2003200320042004AverageAverage20012001200220022003200320042004
Crude OilCrude Oil1.61.61.01.01.31.33.43.4--1.61.6--2.52.5--15.315.314.814.813.813.813.213.2
Non-Oil GDP Of whichNon-Oil GDP Of which5.65.65.35.35.55.54.54.54.44.44.54.584.784.785.285.286.286.286.986.9
AgricultureAgriculture, , Forest, Forest, FishingFishing
6.056.05--0.10.13.03.03.83.83.53.53.73.721.621.620.620.620.720.720.620.6
ManufacturingManufacturing4.94.9776.06.04.54.54.14.14.34.310.110.110.310.310.410.410.510.5
Building & ConstructionBuilding & Construction4.84.82.92.93.93.94.24.23.63.63.93.92.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.1
Trading, Hotels & Trading, Hotels & RestaurantsRestaurants
4.84.812.112.18.58.55555558.58.59.19.19.29.29.39.3
Transportation & StorageTransportation & Storage6.16.19.39.37.77.74.84.84.24.24.54.511.211.211.711.711.811.811.911.9
Financing, Insurance, Financing, Insurance, Real estate & Business Real estate & Business ServicesServices
6.56.53.63.65.15.14.64.62.32.33.53.58.98.98.88.88.98.98.88.8
Government ServicesGovernment Services 4.04.05.25.24.64.64.44.45.45.44.94.921.421.421.521.521.721.722.122.1
Obstacles to GrowthObstacles to Growth
• Vulnerability To External Shocks Vulnerability To External Shocks • Failure of Promising Sectors To Achieve Failure of Promising Sectors To Achieve
Goals Goals • Investment Environment Investment Environment • Week InfrastructureWeek Infrastructure• Red Tape Red Tape • Manufacturing (Reliance on Imports, Manufacturing (Reliance on Imports,
Banking Sector, Family Businesses Banking Sector, Family Businesses • Fisheries (Legal Framework, Fisheries (Legal Framework,
overexploitation of Reserves, overexploitation of Reserves, Underdeveloped Systems Underdeveloped Systems
• Tourism (Security, Infrastructure, Weak Tourism (Security, Infrastructure, Weak PromotionPromotion
Effect of Economic Development on PovertyEffect of Economic Development on Poverty
ItemItemUrbanUrbanRuralRuralTotalTotalPercentage ChangePercentage Change1998-20031998-2003
UrbanUrbanRuralRuralTotalTotal
Food povertyFood poverty8.48.421.321.318.318.316.016.0--7.07.03.33.3
Poverty GapPoverty Gap0.40.41.01.00.90.980.980.9--80.780.7--880.00.0--
Severity of Severity of PovertyPoverty
0.10.10.10.10.10.185.785.7--95.095.0----94.194.1
Absolute PovertyAbsolute Poverty21.121.145.745.740.140.131.531.5--1.61.6--4.14.1
Poverty GapPoverty Gap1.11.12.72.72.32.386.686.6--81.681.6----82.682.6
Severity of Severity of PovertyPoverty
0.10.10.30.30.20.296.996.9--95.595.5----96.696.6
Consumption & SavingConsumption & Saving ItemItemActualActualAchievementAchievementTargetTarget
200120012002200220032003200420042003200320042004
Total final ConsumptionTotal final Consumption80.280.280.080.079.579.574.174.184.984.986.386.3
PrivatePrivate65.765.764.464.463.463.460.160.167.267.268.668.6
PublicPublic14.514.515.615.616.116.114.114.117.717.717.717.7
Total InvestmentTotal Investment18.918.920.820.822.122.123.023.024.624.625.825.8
Domestic ConsumptionDomestic Consumption99.299.2100.8100.8101.6101.697.297.2109.109.55
112.1112.1
Balance Of Goods & Balance Of Goods & ServicesServices
0.80.80.80.8--1.61.6--2.82.89.59.5--12.112.1--
Exports of Goods & Exports of Goods & ServicesServices
36.636.638.438.438.138.139.039.032.132.128.628.6
Imports of Goods & Imports of Goods & ServicesServices
35.835.839.139.139.739.736.236.241.641.6--40.640.6--
Net Income Of Production Net Income Of Production FactorsFactors
6.56.5--7.37.3--8.58.5--9.09.0--5.45.4--3.83.8--
Investment and Business ClimateInvestment and Business Climate IndicatorsIndicators200220022003200320042004Region's Average Region's Average
for 2004for 2004
-1-1 Starting Up ActivitiesStarting Up Activities
Number Of ProceduresNumber Of Procedures--131312121010
Number Of Working Days RequiredNumber Of Working Days Required9595969663633939
Cost Of Accomplishing Procedures % of per capita Cost Of Accomplishing Procedures % of per capita incomeincome
3173172642642692695151
Minimum Capital Required % of per capita incomeMinimum Capital Required % of per capita income))280328031717171715611561856856
-2-2 Registration Of OwnershipRegistration Of Ownership
Number of ProceduresNumber of Procedures----6666
Number Of Working Days RequiredNumber Of Working Days Required ----21215454
Cost Of Registration )% of per capita assetsCost Of Registration )% of per capita assets))----3.93.96.86.8
3-Executing Contracts3-Executing Contracts
Number Of ProceduresNumber Of Procedures --272737373838
Number Of Working Days RequiredNumber Of Working Days Required --240240360360437437
Cost )% of per capita incomeCost )% of per capita income)) --0.50.510.510.517.917.9
44-Liquidation Of Business-Liquidation Of Business
Liquidation Time )yearsLiquidation Time )years))--2.42.4333.93.9
Liquidation Cost )% of AssetsLiquidation Cost )% of Assets))--44881313
ItemItemActualActual Proposed Proposed BudgetBudget
PRSPRS TargetTarget
2002200220032003**20042004200520052003200320042004
Surplus / Deficit NetSurplus / Deficit Net))))--0.80.8--4.34.3--1.91.9--3.03.0--------
Surplus / Deficit Surplus / Deficit )Gross))Gross)
--0.50.5--4.44.4--2.82.8--4.34.3 3.03.04.04.0
Net Foreign FinanceNet Foreign Finance--0.30.30.10.10.80.83.03.01.31.31.31.3
Net Local FinanceNet Local Finance0.80.84.34.31.91.91.31.31.71.72.72.7
Total RevenuesTotal Revenues32.032.033.333.335.235.2------
Total of ExpendituresTotal of Expenditures32.832.837.637.637.137.133.633.635.235.234.534.5
Status of the BudgetStatus of the Budget (% of GDP)(% of GDP)
Status of the BudgetStatus of the Budget
ItemItemActualActualPRS TargetsPRS Targets
200220022003200320042004**2003200320042004
Public ServicesPublic Services6.76.79.09.08.18.1----
DefenseDefense7.17.16.66.64.94.96.56.56.36.3
Safety & Public OrderSafety & Public Order 2.42.42.72.72.42.4----
Economic AffairsEconomic Affairs5.05.07.17.13.53.5----
Environment ProtectionEnvironment Protection0.00.00.60.60.80.8----
Housing, Local Community AffairsHousing, Local Community Affairs1.91.92.22.21.61.6----
Entertainment, Culture & ReligionEntertainment, Culture & Religion0.50.50.60.60.70.7----
Community Social ServicesCommunity Social Services,,Of whichOf which
8.28.28.08.08.68.612.112.112.812.8
HealthHealth1.31.31.51.51.61.61.91.92.12.1
EducationEducation6.86.86.46.46.86.89.19.19.49.4
Social ProtectionSocial Protection0.10.10.10.10.10.1----
*Estimate
s
Monitoring IndicatorsMonitoring Indicators
Population Population ))Millions)Millions)18.318.320.820.819.719.7
FertilityFertility 5.95.95.35.36.26.2
Maternal Mortality Maternal Mortality ))per 100,000 birthsper 100,000 births))351351314314365365
Infant Mortality Infant Mortality ))Per 1,000Per 1,000))67.867.861.561.584.384.3
> 5 > 5 yrsyrs. . Child Mortality Child Mortality ))Per 1,000Per 1,000))94.194.184.184.199.899.8
Control of Population GrowthControl of Population GrowthPopulation Growth RatePopulation Growth Rate 3.53.53.13.13.023.02
UrbanUrban29.929.926.126.1
RuralRural45.145.141.641.6
Increased Health Care CoverageIncreased Health Care Coverage Coverage Coverage ))PercentagePercentage))TotalTotal505063.863.86363
UrbanUrban808080808080
RuralRural252539.639.64141
Increase in School EnrollmentIncrease in School EnrollmentTotalTotal626267.667.668.968.9
UrbanUrban77.277.281.281.28282
RuralRural43.943.952.752.753.353.3
GoalGoal IndicatorsIndicatorsBase Base year year datadata
20042004 plannplanneded
20042004 ActualActual
InfrastructuresInfrastructures Increase in Water and Sanitation Increase in Water and Sanitation Services CoverageServices Coverage
Percentage of Population with Water from Public Percentage of Population with Water from Public NetworkNetwork
TotalTotal57.457.464.564.5
UrbanUrban6464686862.462.4
RuralRural5555636333.833.8
Percentage of Population with Sanitation Percentage of Population with Sanitation ServicesServices
TotalTotal6.26.27.87.8
UrbanUrban333340403838
Increase Coverage of Electricity Increase Coverage of Electricity ServiceService
Percentage of Population with Power from the Percentage of Population with Power from the National GridNational Grid
TotalTotal303038.538.53737
UrbanUrban65.765.796.996.98888
RuralRural171722222121
Electricity Losses Electricity Losses ))percentagepercentage))3838282825.825.8
Connecting Rural Areas to Connecting Rural Areas to Markets, and Easy Access to Markets, and Easy Access to Services through Expansion of Services through Expansion of Road NetworkRoad Network
Length of Asphalted Roads Length of Asphalted Roads ))kmkm))6,5866,5862,0502,0501,4361,436
Length of Gravel Roads Length of Gravel Roads ))km)km)3,9153,9151,7501,750--
Length of Rehabilitated Asphalt Roads Length of Rehabilitated Asphalt Roads ))km)km)--233233256256
Length of Improved and Strengthened Roads Length of Improved and Strengthened Roads ))kmkm))--210210--
Length of Roads Undergoing Routine MaintenanceLength of Roads Undergoing Routine Maintenance --2,1432,1437,6177,617
Social Protection & GenderSocial Protection & Gender
Reinforce Role of Reinforce Role of Social welfareSocial welfare
Number of BeneficiariesNumber of Beneficiaries 450,160450,160570,160570,160650,000650,000
Expansion of Pension Expansion of Pension CoverageCoverage
BeneficiariesBeneficiaries GovGov. . and Puband Pub. . SecSec
415,000415,000450,949450,949474,879474,879
Private SectorPrivate Sector45,00045,00066,00066,00071,10371,103
PensionersPensioners GovGov. . and Puband Pub. . SecSec
40,47340,47356,08956,08959,93259,932
Private SectorPrivate Sector1,1201,1205,7285,7282,2602,260
Narrowing Gender GapNarrowing Gender Gap Gender Development IndexGender Development Index 0.4280.428--0.4270.427
GovernanceGovernanceInstitutional Assessment IndicatorsInstitutional Assessment Indicators
20012001200220022003200320042004
Average for Management of the EconomyAverage for Management of the Economy4.34.34.34.34.84.84.24.2
Commercial Policy and Banking PolicyCommercial Policy and Banking Policy4.54.54.54.555--
Financial StabilityFinancial Stability2.52.5333.53.5--
Effectiveness of the Banking System and Effectiveness of the Banking System and Resource MobilizationResource Mobilization
2.52.52.52.52.52.5--
Competitive environment for Private SectorCompetitive environment for Private Sector333333--
Commodity Markets and FactorsCommodity Markets and Factors of Productionof Production333.53.53.53.5--
Average of Structural PoliciesAverage of Structural Policies333.23.23.33.33.23.2
Average of Social Indicators & EqualityAverage of Social Indicators & Equality2.92.93.13.13.53.533
Property Rights and GovernanceProperty Rights and Governance22112.52.52.52.5
Fiscal and Budget Management QualityFiscal and Budget Management Quality3.53.53.53.53.53.533
Effectiveness of Revenue MobilizationEffectiveness of Revenue Mobilization3.53.53.53.53.53.53.53.5
Quality of Public Sector ManagementQuality of Public Sector Management33333.53.533
Transparency, Accountability & corruption in Transparency, Accountability & corruption in the Public Sectorthe Public Sector
222.52.5332.52.5
Average of Public Sector Management and Average of Public Sector Management and InstitutionsInstitutions
2.82.82.72.73.23.22.92.9
Overall Average of Institutional AssessmentOverall Average of Institutional Assessment3.23.23.33.33.63.63.33.3
GovernanceGovernance (1 Of 5) (1 Of 5)
• Judiciary :Judiciary :1.1. InfrastructureInfrastructure
2.2. Training And Rehabilitation Training And Rehabilitation
3.3. Resuming admissions to The Higher Resuming admissions to The Higher Judicial Institute Judicial Institute
4.4. Cutting Short Court Procedures Cutting Short Court Procedures
• Combating Corruption :Combating Corruption :
1.1. Establishing A Supreme Committee Establishing A Supreme Committee
2.2. Drafty A Matrix Addressing Drafty A Matrix Addressing Corruption Issues Corruption Issues
3.3. Cabinet Issued Resolution And Cabinet Issued Resolution And Orders To Implement The MatrixOrders To Implement The Matrix
GovernanceGovernance (2 Of 5) (2 Of 5)
• Civil Service:Civil Service:
1.1. Restructuring 7 Administrative Restructuring 7 Administrative Units Units
2.2. Eliminate Double Dippers And Eliminate Double Dippers And Ghost Names Ghost Names
3.3. Referral To Retirement Referral To Retirement
GovernanceGovernance (3 Of 5) (3 Of 5)
• Enhancing Human Rights :Enhancing Human Rights :
1.1. Establishing A Ministry Of Human Establishing A Ministry Of Human Rights Rights
2.2. Presenting For Discussion Several Presenting For Discussion Several Reports On The Implementation Of Reports On The Implementation Of International ConventionsInternational Conventions
GovernanceGovernance (4 Of 5) (4 Of 5)
GovernanceGovernance (5 Of 5) (5 Of 5)
• Decentralization & Local Authority:Decentralization & Local Authority:
1.1. Complete Construction Of Complete Construction Of Government Complexes Government Complexes
2.2. A National Plan For Training And A National Plan For Training And Rehabilitation Of Local Administration Rehabilitation Of Local Administration Staff Staff
3.3. Forming A Higher Committee And A Forming A Higher Committee And A Technical Committee To Support And Technical Committee To Support And Enhance Decentralization Enhance Decentralization
Challenges and Challenges and Directions for the Directions for the
FutureFuture
Viability The PRSViability The PRS 1.1. Supporting & Directing Planning Supporting & Directing Planning
Towards Development Challenges Towards Development Challenges And Poverty Reduction And Poverty Reduction
2.2. Enhancing Monitoring & Follow Up Enhancing Monitoring & Follow Up Mechanisms Mechanisms
3.3. Expanding Participation Expanding Participation Through Through The Various Phases of Preparation, The Various Phases of Preparation, implementation, monitoring & implementation, monitoring & Follow UpFollow Up
4.4. Linking Financial Resource To Linking Financial Resource To Development Plans Development Plans
20052005 Macroeconomic FrameworkMacroeconomic Framework 2005 Estimates
(YR mn)% of GDP PRS Target
(% of GDP)
Final consumption,Of which:
1,762,07570.886.9
Public consumption367,85414.817.9
Private Consumption1,394,22156.068.9
Gross Investment673,86427.126.0
GDP at market price Real GDP Growth %
Non oil growth %
2,488,0772.94.1
100.0--
100--
National savings490,95219.723.3
Trade Balance--0.3-8.1
Current Balance--0.6-2.7
20052005 budgetbudget ItemItem20052005
PRS TargetPRS Target 20052005 Proposed Proposed
BudgetBudgetDeviation (Percentage Deviation (Percentage
PointPoint))
Total current Revenues & GrantsTotal current Revenues & Grants29.529.528.428.41.11.1--
Total RevenueTotal Revenuess28.728.727.727.71.01.0--
Oil & GasOil & Gas16.216.218.118.12.12.1
Non Oil RevenuesNon Oil Revenues12.512.5----
TaxTaxeses10.310.37.77.72.62.6--
CustomsCustoms3.13.12.12.11.01.0--
NON Tax RevenuesNON Tax Revenues2.32.32.02.00.30.3--
Grants cashGrants cash))0.80.80.70.70.10.1--
Total ExpenditureTotal Expenditure33.233.233.633.60.40.4--
Current ExpenditureCurrent Expenditure25.425.423.423.42.02.0--
Civil Salaries & WagesCivil Salaries & Wages9.39.310.710.71.41.4
Goods & servicesGoods & services2.92.93.43.40.50.5
Maintenance & OperationMaintenance & Operation0.40.40.50.50.10.1
Debt PaymentsDebt Payments2.62.62.92.90.30.3
Transfers & SubsidyTransfers & Subsidy3.63.66.06.02.42.4
Current TransfersCurrent Transfers3.53.52.72.70.80.8--
SubsidySubsidy0.10.12.02.01.91.9
Development ExpenditureDevelopment Expenditure7.87.87.97.90.10.1
Balance )including grantsBalance )including grants))3.73.7----4.34.30.60.6
Net Local FinancingNet Local Financing2.62.63.03.00.40.4
Net foreign FinancingNet foreign Financing1.11.11.31.30.20.2
Priority SpendingPriority SpendingItemItem20052005 TargetsTargets20052005 BudgetBudget
Total expenditure )million Rials)Total expenditure )million Rials)669669 , ,464464836,379836,379
Defence )% of GDP)Defence )% of GDP)6.06.05.15.1
Health )% of GDP)Health )% of GDP)**Investment expenditure in health )Mn/YR)Investment expenditure in health )Mn/YR)
2.22.212,84712,847
1.71.714,88614,886
Education )% of GDP)Education )% of GDP)**Investment expenditure )Mn/YR)Investment expenditure )Mn/YR)
9.69.630,75930,759
7.17.134,50634,506
Social Welfare Fund )% of GDP) )Mn/YR)Social Welfare Fund )% of GDP) )Mn/YR)1.41.428,23828,238
0.60.614,30614,306
Social Fund for Development )Mn/YR)Social Fund for Development )Mn/YR)13,50213,50213,04113,041
Civil Service Fund )Mn/YR)Civil Service Fund )Mn/YR)1,3001,3002,2602,260
Agriculture & Fisheries Production & Agriculture & Fisheries Production & Promotion Fund )Mn/YR)Promotion Fund )Mn/YR)
3,0003,00014,43114,431
Economic GrowthEconomic Growth17,66017,66036,33236,332
Human Resources DevelopmentHuman Resources Development43,60643,60639,29739,297
Enhancing InfrastructureEnhancing Infrastructure41,91541,915184,227184,227
• Directions For Future: Directions For Future:
• Enhancing Investment Climate And Enhancing Investment Climate And
Accelerating ReformsAccelerating Reforms
• Upgrading The Planning ProcessUpgrading The Planning Process
• Expanding Participation And Expanding Participation And Partnership Partnership
ENDEND