Cftc March 21 2010

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The contents of this document is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option,security, or derivative including foreign exchange. Trading in futures, securities, options or other derivatives, and OTC products entails significant

risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors

This document can not be received without subscribing to Petromatrix. Please contact [email protected]

1

March 21th

2010

WEEKLY CFTC ANALYSIS

1) Large Speculators in Energy

The CFTC week covers until the close of Tuesday March 16 th. The price of WTI (April)increased slightly by +0.21 $/bbl during the CFTC week and total Open Interest on WTI(all platforms) increased by +8606 contracts.

The aggregate net length of Large Speculators in WTIFutures (ICE and NYMEX) increased slightly by about+7800 contracts. Thechange was mostly onthe long side (about

+6800 contracts) whilethere was littlemovement on the shortside.

The net delta Options length in WTI increased by

about +3000 contracts and on a combined basis theFutures + Options Delta Net increased by about+10800 net contracts and is getting closer to thepeaks of early 2010.

Looking at thespeculativepositions byTrading Platforms, there was an increase of net lengthin NYMEX Physical (about +14900 contracts) and onNYMEX Financial (about + 1400 contracts) while onICE Financial there was a decrease of about -8500contracts of net length.The increase of net length in NYMEX Physical was forthe most part through the addition of fresh length (about+13400 contracts) while there was not much change of

shorts (about -1400 contracts). The small movement inNYMEX Financial was mainly due to the reduction ofshorts (about -1400 contracts) while there waspractically no change of length (about -40 contracts). InICE Financial, the change was mainly through thereduction of length (about -6600 contracts) while there

was a rather small increase of shorts (about +1800 contracts). Overall, the net lengthexposure in NYMEX Physical was increased while the net short position in NYMEXFinancial and the net length position in ICE Financial were both reduced.

Nymex WTI Net Futures Speculative Length

-100'000

-50'000

0

50'000

100'000

150'000

200'000

7-Jan

28-Jan

14-Feb

11-Ma

r

1-Ap

r

22-Ap

r

13-May

3-Jun

24-Jun

15-Ju

l

5-Aug

26-Aug

16-Sep

7-Oc

t

28-Oc

t

18-No

v

9-Dec

30-Dec

2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 incl ICE 2010

Weekly change in Speculative WTI Futures positions

-50'000

-40'000

-30'000

-20'000

-10'000

010'000

20'000

30'000

40'000

1-Sep

15-S

ep

29-S

ep

13-O

ct

27-O

ct

10-N

ov

24-N

ov8-D

ec

22-D

ec5-

Jan

19-Jan

2-Fe

b

16-F

eb2-M

arLong

Short

Speculative Funds WTI Futures+Options Delta Net

-30'000

20'000

70'000

120'000

170'000

220'000

1-Jan 26-Feb 22-Apr 17-Jun 12-Aug 7-Oct 2-Dec

2007 2008 2009 2010

NET Large Speculators position in WTI Futures by Trading

Platform

-40'000

-20'000

0

20'000

40'000

60'000

80'000100'000

120'000

140'000

Nym ex Physi ca l Nym ex Fi na nci al I CE Fi na nci al

Weekly Change in NET Large Speculators position in WTIFutures by Trading Platform

-10'000

-7'500

-5'000

-2'500

0

2'500

5'000

7'500

10'000

12'500

15'000

17'500

20'000

Nym ex Physi ca l Nym ex Fi na ncia l I CE Fi na ncia l

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The most active category on a net basis was the LargeSpeculators (about +7700 contracts). Second was theCommercials (about -4300 contracts), followed by the

Small Speculators (about -2100 contracts) and the SwapDealers (about -1300 contracts). The Large Speculatorsadded primarily length (about +6800 contracts) andreduced shorts (about -1000 contracts), leading to anincrease of their net long exposure by about +7800contracts. The Commercials increased their net shortexposure (about -4300 contracts) by adding more shorts(about +26000 contracts) than length (about + 21700contracts). However, the Small Speculators reduced theirnet long exposure by about -2100 contracts because thereduction of length was higher (about -11730 contracts)

than the reduction of shorts (about -9600 contracts). Thesame is true for the Swap Dealers. Their reduction on thelong side (about -12400 contracts) was slightly higher than the one on the short side

(about -11000 contracts) which resulted in a smallreduction of net length (about -1300 contracts).

In the Number of Traders on NYMEX WTI Physical, eightLarge Speculators joined the long side while the number oftraders on the short side remained on the same level. Theincrease in the numbers of Large Traders on the long sidecontinues and the number is now getting close to the peak

seen in the October rally

In Heating Oil the Large Speculators were the most activecategory on a net basis, but that remains relative since therewas very little activity in Heating Oil. Large Speculatorsincreased length (about +1900contracts) as well as shorts(about +3500 contracts)leading to a small reduction oftheir net long exposure ofabout -1600 contracts. The

Swap Dealers were inactive. The Commercials increasedlength (about +11100 contracts) as well as shorts (about+10400 contracts), leading to a small decrease of their netshort exposure (about -700 contracts). The Small Speculatorshad on a net basis hardly any change to their position becausethey added almost the same amount of contracts on the longside as on the short side (both about +2100 contracts).

Net Positions in WTI crude oil

-350'000

-300'000

-250'000

-200'000

-150'000

-100'000

-50'000

0

50'000

100'000

150'000

200'000

Comm erci al s S wa p De al ers La rge

Speculators

Small

Speculators

Number of Firms in the WTI Physical Large

Speculators Category by Position Type

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

6-Jan-09

27-J

an-09

17-F

eb-09

10-Ma

r-09

31-Ma

r-09

21-A

pr-09

12

-May-09

2-Ju

n-09

23-J

un-09

1

4-Jul-

09

4

-Aug

-09

25

-Aug

-09

15-

Sep-09

6-Oct-0

9

27-O

ct-09

17-N

ov-09

8-De

c-09

29-D

ec-09

19-J

an-10

9-Fe

b-10

2-Ma

r-10

Long Short

Nymex HeatOil Net Speculative Length

-20'000

-10'000

0

10'000

20'000

30'000

40'000

50'000

60'000

7-Jan

28-Jan

14-Feb

11-Mar

1-Apr

22-Apr

13-May

3-Jun

24-Jun

15-Jul

5-Aug

26-Aug

16-Sep

7-Oct

28-Oct

18-Nov

9-Dec

30-Dec

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Net Positions in Heating Oil

-150'000

-100'000

-50'000

0

50'000

100'000

Commercials Swap Dealers Large

Speculators

Small

Speculators

Weekly HO Futures Position change by Category

-5'000

-2'500

0

2'500

5'000


Speculators

Small

Speculators

Weekly WTI Futures Position change by Category

-10'000

-5'000

0

5'000

10'000

15'000

Commercia ls Swa p

Dealers

Large

Speculators

Small

Speculators

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3

In RBOB Gasoline, the Large Speculators and theCommercials were on a net basis the most activecategories. They were followed by the Swap Dealers while

the Small Speculators was the least active category duringthis CFTC week. Themovement by the LargeSpeculators was mostlydue to the increase oflength (about +4800

contracts) and the decrease of shorts (about -2200contracts). This led to an increase of net length ofabout 7000 contracts. The Commercials added moreshorts (about +18200 contracts) than length (about+10500 contracts), resulting in an increase of their

net short exposure of about 7700 contracts. InGasoline, as in Heating Oil, the Swap Dealers wereinactive. The Small Speculators added about the sameamount of length (about +1900 contracts) as ofshorts (about +1800 contracts). The number of LargeTraders on the speculative long side in RBOBGasoline increase by 5 Traders during the CFTCweek and the net length held by Large Speculators inRBOB Gasoline is now higher than at the peaks of January and has reached a new alltime high.

The Large Speculators increased their net short position in NYMEX NatGas Futures byabout 12400 contracts and are net short by about -187000 contracts. On a combinedbasis in NYMEX Futures and Swaps-On-Futures, the net short position increased byabout 23200 contracts. Altogether, when accounting for the net speculative positions inICE Swaps-on-Futures, the aggregated NYMEX + ICE speculative net long positiondecreased remarkably by about -30000 contracts, resulting in a net long position ofabout +34000 contracts. Natural Gas prices have suffered some heavy losses since earlyFebruary and the price erosion corresponds very precisely to the timeframe where LargeSpeculators have been liquidating their net length in Natural Gas Futures and Swaps. Asof last Tuesday the Large Speculators still had 34000 contracts to liquidate beforebecoming fully neutral on their Natural Gas net length.

Nymex Gasoline Net Speculative Length

0

10'000

20'000

30'000

40'00050'000

60'000

70'000

80'000

90'000

7-Ja

n

28-Ja

n

14-Feb

11-Mar

1-Ap

r

22-Apr

13-May

3-Ju

n

24-Ju

n

15-Jul

5-Au

g

26-Aug

16-S

ep7-

Oct

28-O

ct

18-N

ov

9-De

c

30-D

ec

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Weekly RBOB Futures Position change by Category

-10'000

-7'500

-5'000

-2'500

0

2'500

5'000

7'500

10'000

Commercials Swap

Dealers

Large

Speculators

Small

Speculators

Net Positions in RBOB Gasoline

-150'000

-100'000

-50'000

0

50'000

100'000


Speculators

Small

Speculators

Natural Gas Net Speculative Length

Futures +Henry Hub Swaps (Position Adjusted to NG size)

-100'000

-50'000

0

50'000

100'000

150'000

3- Jan 7- Feb 14 -M ar 18 -A pr 23 -M ay 27 -Jun 1 -A ug 5 -Sep 10- Oct 14- No v 19- Dec

2007 2008 2009 2010 excl.ICE 2010 Including ICE

Natural Gas FUTURES Net Speculative Length

-200'000

-150'000

-100'000

-50'000

0

50'000

3-Jan 7-Fe b 14-Ma r 18-Ap r 23-May 27-Ju n 1 -Au g 5 -Se p 10-Oct 14-No v 1 9-De c

2007 2008 2009 2010

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4

Overall, the aggregate net speculative positions in oil(Crude, Heating Oil and Gasoline) increased morethan last week but still at a relatively slow pace and

were mainly driven by increases in Crude andGasoline. The speculative net length in Gasoline hasreached a new all timehigh .In Crude oil thespeculative net length isgetting closer to the highof earlier this year while

on spreads the positions were left unchanged versus theprevious week. On Natural Gas the Large Speculators havebeen driving prices lower as they have been liquidating theirnet length since the first weeks of February; they are however

now getting closer to a full neutral net position in Natural Gas.

16-Mar 9-MarCFTC Large Speculators Net Positions

NET NETWeekly change

NYMEX WTI Crude Futures Physical 124'143 109'314 14'829

NYMEX WTI Crude Futures Financial -12'887 -14'268 1'381

ICE WTI Crude Futures Financial 6'310 14'778 -8'468

WTI Crude Futures Net (NYMEX + ICE) 117'566 109'824 7'742

NYMEX WTI Physical Options Net Delta 84'382 81'310 3'072

Combined WTI Futures + Options Delta 201'948 191'134 10'814

NYMEX Brent Crude Oil Net -2'403 -616 -1'787

NYMEX Heating Oil Futures Net 23'192 24'798 -1'606

NYMEX European Gasoil Crack Net 810 740 70

NYMEX Gasoline Futures Net 77'871 70'855 7'016

NYMEX Natural Gas Futures (NG) Net -186'983 -174'569 -12'414

NYMEX Natural Gas Swaps (NN+NP) Net. 97'298 108'104 -10'806ICE Natural Gas Swaps 124'108 130'934 -6'826

NatGas Futures+Swaps (NG+NN+NP+ICE) 34'423 64'469 -30'046

Nymex WTI+HO+RBOB Net Speculative Length

-50'000

0

50'000

100'000

150'000

200'000

250'000

300'000

7-Ja

n

28-Ja

n

14-Feb

11-Mar

1-Ap

r

22-Apr

13-May

3-Jun

24-Ju

n

15-Jul

5-Au

g

26-Aug

16-Sep

7-Oc

t

28-O

ct

18-N

ov

9-De

c

30-D

ec

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Speculative spread positions in WTI

200'000

250'000

300'000

350'000

400'000

450'000

6-

Jan

3-

Feb

3-

Mar

31-

Mar

28-

Apr

26-

May

23-

Jun

21-

Jul

18-

Aug

15-

Sep

13-

Oct

9-

Nov

8-

Dec

2008 2009 2010

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5

ENERGY DISAGGREGATED CFTC REPORT

Net Futures Positions Net Delta Option Positions

16. Mrz 09. Mrz change 16. Mrz 09. Mrz change

Commercials Commercials

WTI NYMEX -232'275 -233'249 974 WTI NYMEX 22'061 21'723 338

WTI ICE -68'803 -63'542 -5'261 WTI ICE -161 -149 -12

HeatOil NYMEX -124'236 -124'894 658 HeatOil NYMEX -2'146 -1'640 -506

RBOB NYMEX -131'192 -123'484 -7'708 RBOB NYMEX -1'224 -919 -305

NatGas NYMEX -19'184 -24'399 5'215 NatGas NYMEX -270 -146 -124

Swap Dealers Swap Dealers

WTI NYMEX (P+F) 111'213 124'293 -13'080 WTI NYMEX (P+F) -103'783 -100'777 -3'006

WTI ICE 64'201 50'597 13'604 WTI ICE 61 96 -35

HeatOil NYMEX 80'089 79'159 930 HeatOil NYMEX 1'185 1'018 167

RBOB NYMEX 42'099 41'515 584 RBOB NYMEX 1'524 1'245 279

NatGas NYMEX 173'783 166'968 6'815 NatGas NYMEX -98'386 -96'650 -1'736

Large Speculators Large Speculators

WTI NYMEX (P+F) 109'875 95'046 14'829 WTI NYMEX (P+F) 84'382 81'311 3'071WTI ICE 6'310 14'778 -8'468 WTI ICE 68 24 44

HeatOil NYMEX 23'192 24'798 -1'606 HeatOil NYMEX 91 -275 366

RBOB NYMEX 77'871 70'855 7'016 RBOB NYMEX -833 -888 55

NatGas NYMEX -186'983 -174'569 -12'414 NatGas NYMEX 97'430 95'958 1'472

Small Speculators Small Speculators

WTI NYMEX (P+F) 11'187 13'910 -2'723 WTI NYMEX (P+F) -2'659 -2'256 -403

WTI ICE -1'708 -1'833 125 WTI ICE 32 30 2

HeatOil NYMEX 20'955 20'937 18 HeatOil NYMEX 871 897 -26

RBOB NYMEX 11'222 11'114 108 RBOB NYMEX 531 562 -31

NatGas NYMEX 32'384 32'000 384 NatGas NYMEX 1'226 838 388

Net Futures/Option Delta Positions

16. Mrz 09. Mrz changeCommercials

WTI NYMEX -210'214 -211'526 1'312

WTI ICE -68'964 -63'691 -5'273

HeatOil NYMEX -126'382 -126'534 152

RBOB NYMEX -132'416 -124'403 -8'013

NatGas NYMEX -19'454 -24'545 5'091

Swap Dealers

WTI NYMEX (P+F) 7'430 23'516 -16'086

WTI ICE 64'262 50'693 13'569

HeatOil NYMEX 81'274 80'177 1'097

RBOB NYMEX 43'623 42'760 863

NatGas NYMEX 75'397 70'318 5'079

Large SpeculatorsWTI NYMEX (P+F) 194'257 176'357 17'900

WTI ICE 6'378 14'802 -8'424

HeatOil NYMEX 23'283 24'523 -1'240

RBOB NYMEX 77'038 69'967 7'071

NatGas NYMEX -89'553 -78'611 -10'942

Small Speculators

WTI NYMEX (P+F) 8'528 11'654 -3'126

WTI ICE -1'676 -1'803 127

HeatOil NYMEX 21'826 21'834 -8

RBOB NYMEX 11'753 11'676 77

NatGas NYMEX 33'610 32'838 772

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2) Open Interest and Volume Analysis in Energy

Daily Volume on WTI was steady and healthy during the week but the story of the week

is the surge of Open Interest seen Thursday in WTI NYMEX. On that day, Open Interestin WTI NYMEX increased by about +61000 contract which is clearly an a abnormaldaily pattern and would be an all time high in terms of daily increase. The number is solarge that we want to treat it with some caution and wait another day for a confirmation tomake sure that this is not due to an accounting mistake by the NYMEX. Until aconfirmation later today we will however have to take it at face value and consider thatthere was a surge of Open Interest just as WTI was testing previous highs in price andthat the surge of Open Interest has contributed to renewed price pressure on WTI.

Is the surge of Open Interest on WTI NYMEX linked to renewed producer hedging theday after the OPEC meeting and at prices that areapproaching strong resistance levels? We can not be sure

of that yet but we still note that the increase of OpenInterest on Thursday was on May, Jun, Jul, Aug as wellas a strong increase on Dec11 rather than purely on thefront trading month. That pattern would correspond moreto hedging than to speculative flows; hence at this stagewe will have a bias to link that surge of Open Interest tohedging flows. For the Large Speculators this surge ofOpen Interest at 83 $/bbl is bad news as it indicates that there is significant layers ofinterest wanting to be short at these higher price levels while the Large Speculators arereaching the peak of their known investment capacity.

Open Interest in Brent continues to steadily increase andreached on Thursday a new all time high. On a combinedbasis for all crude oilcontracts (Brent andWTI, NYMEX and ICE)total Open Interest is nowonly 2000 contract shortof the all time high recordset in 2007.

WTI Physical Intra-month Volume

100'000

200'000

300'000

400'000

500'000

600'000

700'000

800'000900'000

1'000'000

1'100'000

1'200'000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

WTI Physical Intra-month Open Interest

1'100'000

1'200'000

1'300'000

1'400'000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Weekly change in Crude Open Interest ALL contracts

-5'000

0

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

25'000

30'000

35'000

40'000

Jun-10

Jul-1

0

Aug-10

Sep-10

Oct-1

0

Nov-10

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16

WTI BRENT

Nymex and ICE Open Interest in Crude

900'000

'000'000

'100'000

'200'000

'300'000

'400'000

'500'000

'600'000

'700'000

Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Nov-09

Nymex Open Interest WTI ICE Open Interest (WTI+Brent)

Open Interest all crudes (Nymex+ICE)

2'000'000

2'100'000

2'200'000

2'300'000

2'400'000

2'500'000

2'600'000

2'700'000

2'800'000

2'900'000

3'000'000

Jan-

07

Mar-

07

Jun-

07

Sep-

07

Dec-

07

Mar-

08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Nov-

08

Feb-

09

May-

09

Aug-

09

Nov-

09

Feb-

10

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7

In products, Open Interest in RBOB Gasolinecontinues to grow at a very strong level and is

catching up to the levels of Open Interest in HeatingOil. Speculative interest in RBOB, as shown in theCFTC data, is extreme and together with the surgeof Open Interest in RBOB Futures this shouldtranslate into upcoming higher volatility inGasoline. On Gasoline positions we would run riskscenarios with some stress test on volatility ratherthan purely use historical volatility.

All products together (ie crude and products,NYMEX and ICE) the total Open Interest in oil

commodities is at a new record high, at anequivalent of 4 billion barrels.

There were insignificant changes in the holdings ofthe USO and the UNG during the week. The WTIApril NYMEX contract expires tomorrow(Monday).

Total Open Interest Thursday to Thursday 18 March 10 11 Mar 10 ChangeICE Gasoil 559872 573523 -13651

ICE Brent 882280 871815 +10465

NYMEX Brent (BB) 35124 36155 -1031

TOTAL BRENT 917404 907970 +9434

ICE WTI 520199 516696 +3503

NYMEXWTI Financial 133592 131052 +2540

NYMEXWTI Physical 1403466 1372094 +31372

TOTAL WTI 2057257 2019842 +37415

US Gulf Coast Sour Crude Oil (MB) 150 150 unch

NYMEX Heating Oil 329435 322838 +6597

NYMEX RBOB Gasoline 322935 299378 +23557

NYMEX Natural Gas (NG) 843155 866906 -23751

NYMEX Natural Gas Swaps (NN+NP) Adjusted 1000820 985252 +15568

NYMEX OPTION CALL WTI 2244833 2425773 -180940

NYMEX OPTION PUT WTI 2034334 2183525 -149191

Open Interest ALL Petroleum in '000 bbls equivalent

All WTI, Brent, HO, RBOB, ICE Gasoil

2'800'000

3'000'000

3'200'000

3'400'000

3'600'000

3'800'000

4'000'000

4'200'000

Jan-

07

Mar-

07

Jun-

07

Sep-

07

Dec-

07

Mar-

08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Dec-

08

Mar-

09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec-

09

Mar-

10

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8

3) Overall conclusions on Investment Flows in Energy

Our conclusion last week was that the net speculative length in WTI would be about

unchanged by Friday 12th

. The actual number came out ata modest increase of +7700 net contract by Tuesday 16thMarch, an increase that is fully explained by the priceincrease between the 12th and the 16th.The correlation between crude oil prices and speculativepositions remains relatively strong and by the close ofFriday (19th ) the net speculative length in WTI should belower by about 9000 net contracts.

Large Speculators havecontinued to add to their

net length in WTI andRBOB Gasoline but theCFTC data is still notproviding any indicationthat the Swap Dealers arestepping in to take the relayin the buying frenzy. The

Large Speculators are holding near record net length inGasoline and WTI and have not been able to trigger anysignificant short covering. To the contrary, the surge ofOpen Interest in WTI on Thursday needs to be a strongwarning sign to the Large Speculators. Very significant layers of Interest are willing tocome on the short side on the approach of 85 $/bbl while Large Speculators are at thepeak of their known investment capacity.

Speculative liquidation in Natural Gas has contributedto a 25 % drop in Natural Gas prices since mid-February and the risk of speculative liquidation in crudeoil is increasing as prices are not able to break throughthe resistance levels but are instead attracting higherselling interest.

Net Position wee kly change of Large Speculators

-15'000

-10'000

-5'000

0

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

WTI NYMEX

(P+F)

WTI ICE HeatOil

NYMEX

RBOB NYMEX NatGas

NYMEX

Net Position weekly change of Swap Dealers

-15'000

-10'000

-5'000

0

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

WTI NYMEX

(P+F)

WTI ICE HeatOil

NYMEX

RBOB NYMEX NatGas

NYMEX

Net Position weekly change of Small Speculators

-15'000

-10'000

-5'000

0

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

WTI NYMEX WTI ICE HeatOil

NYMEX

RBOB NYMEX NatGas

NYMEX

Net Position weekly change of Commercials

-15'000

-10'000

-5'000

0

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

WTI NYMEX WTI ICE HeatOil

NYMEX

RBOB NYMEX NatGas

NYMEX

Speculative Funds WTI Futures Net Position vs Flat Price

-10'000

10'000

30'000

50'000

70'000

90'000

110'000

130'000

150'000

4-Aug

18-Aug

1-Sep

15-S

ep

29-S

ep

13-O

ct

27-O

ct

10-N

ov

24-N

ov

8-De

c

22-D

ec5-J

an

19-Jan

2-Fe

b

16-F

eb2-M

ar

16-M

ar65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

81

83

Speculative Fund's net position WTI $/bbl

Net Crude Oil WTI Physical Futures

-100'000

-50'000

0

50'000

100'000

150'000

200'000

250'000

Jan-08

Feb-08

Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Dec-09

Feb-10

Mar-10

Sw ap De al er s Lar ge S pe cu lat or s

Increase of net speculative positions in WTI by

week from start of rallies

-40'000

-20'000

0

20'000

40'000

60'000

80'000

100'000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Oct Rally, 29 Sep base Dec Rally, 15 Dec base

Feb Rally, 09 Feb base

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4) Investment flows in other Commodity markets

In the Index positions (for the commoditiescurrently offered in the CFTC Index Fundssurvey), there were inflows into most of thecommodities with focus on Live Cattle,Wheat, Sugar and Corn. However, there wasa significant outflow in Soybean Oil and theinflows were not large enough to draw anyapparent trend.

In Gold the net length held by Large Speculatorsdecreased by about -7300 contracts. This wasmainly through the addition of shorts (about

+5500 contracts) while there was lessmovement on the long side (about -1800contracts).

The net position held by Large Speculators inthe Dollar Index decreased slightly (about -7100 contracts) mainly because of lengthliquidation (about -5900 contracts)

Index positions (% change vs End-Dec 2009)

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

5-Jan

12-Ja

n

19-Ja

n

26-Ja

n2-Fe

b9-Fe

b

16-F

eb

23-F

eb2-Ma

r

9-Ma

r

16-M

ar

Wheat CBOT Corn Soybeans Co tton Lean Hogs Live Ca tt le Sugar

WTI-Risk-Adjusted weekly Change in Index positions.

-7'000

-6'000

-5'000

-4'000

-3'000

-2'000

-1'000

0

1'000

2'000

3'000

4'000

LiveC

attle

WheatC

BOT

Suga

rCo

rn

Cotto

n

Coffe

eC

Lean

Hogs

Feed

erCattl

eCo

coa

WheatK

CBOT

Soyb

eans

Soyb

eanO

il

Large Speculators net length in Gold CMX

50'000

100'000

150'000

200'000

250'000

300'000

8-Jan

8-Feb

8-Mar

8-Apr

8-May

8-Jun

8-Jul

8-Aug

8-Sep

8-Oct

8-Nov

8-Dec

2008

2009

2010

Net Large Speculators Position DOLLAR INDEX Futures

-20'000

-10'000

0

10'000

20'000

30'000

40'000

50'000

8-Jan

8-Feb

8-Mar

8-Apr

8-May

8-Jun

8-Jul

8-Aug

8-Sep

8-Oct

8-Nov

8-Dec

2008 2009 2010

Large Speculators in the Dollar Index Futures

0

10'000

20'000

30'000

40'000

50'000

60'000

Jan-08

Feb-0

8

Apr-0

8

May-08

Jun-0

8

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-0

8

Dec-08

Jan-09

Mar-0

9

Apr-0

9

May-09

Jul-0

9

Aug-09

Sep-09

Nov-0

9

Dec-09

Feb-1

0

Mar-1

0

LONG

SHORT

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AGRICULTURE DISAGGREGATED CFTC REPORT


16. Mrz 09. Mrz change 16. Mrz 09. Mrz changeCommercials Commercials

WHEAT CBOT -110'361 -113'501 3'140 WHEAT CBOT -5'112 -6'418 1'306

CORN -342'677 -359'857 17'180 CORN 13'085 6'899 6'186

SOYBEAN -84'282 -86'753 2'471 SOYBEAN 2'620 2'957 -337

SOY OIL -125'963 -135'217 9'254 SOY OIL -5'563 -6'734 1'171

LIVE CATTLE -149'382 -146'285 -3'097 LIVE CATTLE -24'404 -22'823 -1'581


WHEAT CBOT 174'990 173'271 1'719 WHEAT CBOT 1'577 1'513 64

CORN 384'818 382'140 2'678 CORN 7'938 8'202 -264

SOYBEAN 141'079 139'345 1'734 SOYBEAN 213 591 -378

SOY OIL 97'890 103'886 -5'996 SOY OIL 809 1'339 -530

LIVE CATTLE 100'582 97'796 2'786 LIVE CATTLE 4'502 3'931 571


WHEAT CBOT -43'775 -37'526 -6'249 WHEAT CBOT 4'417 5'426 -1'009

CORN 87'268 110'261 -22'993 CORN -3'381 2'259 -5'640

SOYBEAN -3'433 2'286 -5'719 SOYBEAN 2'006 1'081 925

SOY OIL 20'891 21'386 -495 SOY OIL 3'883 4'356 -473

LIVE CATTLE 93'700 92'074 1'626 LIVE CATTLE 28'287 26'701 1'586


WHEAT CBOT -20'854 -22'244 1'390 WHEAT CBOT -881 -520 -361

CORN -129'409 -132'544 3'135 CORN -17'640 -17'360 -280

SOYBEAN -53'364 -54'878 1'514 SOYBEAN -4'838 -4'628 -210

SOY OIL 7'182 9'945 -2'763 SOY OIL 871 1'040 -169

LIVE CATTLE -44'900 -43'585 -1'315 LIVE CATTLE -8'385 -7'810 -575


16. Mrz 09. Mrz changeCommercials

WHEAT CBOT -115'473 -119'919 4'446

CORN -329'592 -352'958 23'366

SOYBEAN -81'662 -83'796 2'134

SOY OIL -131'526 -141'951 10'425

LIVE CATTLE -173'786 -169'108 -4'678

Swap Dealers

WHEAT CBOT 176'567 174'784 1'783

CORN 392'756 390'342 2'414

SOYBEAN 141'292 139'936 1'356

SOY OIL 98'699 105'225 -6'526

LIVE CATTLE 105'084 101'727 3'357

Large Speculators

WHEAT CBOT -39'358 -32'100 -7'258

CORN 83'887 112'520 -28'633

SOYBEAN -1'427 3'367 -4'794

SOY OIL 24'774 25'742 -968

LIVE CATTLE 121'987 118'775 3'212

Small Speculators

WHEAT CBOT -21'735 -22'764 1'029

CORN -147'049 -149'904 2'855

SOYBEAN -58'202 -59'506 1'304

SOY OIL 8'053 10'985 -2'932

LIVE CATTLE -53'285 -51'395 -1'890

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SOFTS DISAGGREGATED CFTC REPORT




COTTON -104'874 -104'571 -303 COTTON -27'661 -25'490 -2'171

COCOA -29'006 -30'169 1'163 COCOA 270 144 126

SUGAR 11 -113'744 -120'350 6'606 SUGAR 11 18'038 20'721 -2'683

COFFEE C -46'747 -47'606 859 COFFEE C -723 521 -1'244

LUMBER -5'445 -5'602 157 LUMBER -102 -116 14


COTTON 55'644 55'232 412 COTTON -145 -398 253

COCOA 9'117 9'487 -370 COCOA -189 -199 10

SUGAR 11 -68'618 -57'022 -11'596 SUGAR 11 884 245 639

COFFEE C 36'688 36'204 484 COFFEE C 37'107 36'644 463

LUMBER 2'017 2'020 -3 LUMBER 0 0 0


COTTON 38'702 38'503 199 COTTON 27'582 25'370 2'212COCOA 20'560 21'432 -872 COCOA -343 -243 -100

SUGAR 11 171'353 163'449 7'904 SUGAR 11 -20'439 -23'559 3'120

COFFEE C 9'450 10'566 -1'116 COFFEE C -381 -1'696 1'315

LUMBER 3'057 3'212 -155 LUMBER 132 121 11


COTTON 10'528 10'836 -308 COTTON 223 518 -295

COCOA -671 -750 79 COCOA 262 297 -35

SUGAR 11 11'009 13'923 -2'914 SUGAR 11 1'516 2'593 -1'077

COFFEE C 609 836 -227 COFFEE C 685 735 -50

LUMBER 371 370 1 LUMBER -30 -4 -26


16. Mrz 09. Mrz change

Commercials

COTTON -132'535 -130'061 -2'474

COCOA -28'736 -30'025 1'289

SUGAR 11 -95'706 -99'629 3'923

COFFEE C -47'470 -47'085 -385

LUMBER -5'547 -5'718 171

Swap Dealers

COTTON 55'499 54'834 665

COCOA 8'928 9'288 -360

SUGAR 11 -67'734 -56'777 -10'957

COFFEE C 73'795 72'848 947

LUMBER 2'017 2'020 -3

Large Speculators

COTTON 66'284 63'873 2'411

COCOA 20'217 21'189 -972

SUGAR 11 150'914 139'890 11'024

COFFEE C 9'069 8'870 199

LUMBER 3'189 3'333 -144

Small Speculators

COTTON 10'751 11'354 -603

COCOA -409 -453 44

SUGAR 11 12'525 16'516 -3'991

COFFEE C 1'294 1'571 -277

LUMBER 341 366 -25

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COMEX METALS DISAGGREGATED CFTC REPORT




SILVER -51'893 -50'187 -1'706 SILVER -543 -518 -25

COPPER -57'627 -57'516 -111 COPPER 409 454 -45

GOLD -145'726 -159'555 13'829 GOLD -7'166 -5'765 -1'401


SILVER 3'885 4'388 -503 SILVER -401 -277 -124

COPPER 40'464 40'552 -88 COPPER 4 0 4

GOLD -96'569 -92'232 -4'337 GOLD -11'959 -12'120 161


SILVER 34'856 35'165 -309 SILVER -5 -127 122COPPER 19'004 18'278 726 COPPER -324 -370 46

GOLD 200'346 208'194 -7'848 GOLD 16'933 15'443 1'490


SILVER 13'152 10'634 2'518 SILVER 949 923 26

COPPER -1'841 -1'314 -527 COPPER -89 -85 -4

GOLD 41'949 43'593 -1'644 GOLD 2'191 2'443 -252


16. Mrz 09. Mrz change

Commercials

SILVER -52'436 -50'705 -1'731

COPPER -57'218 -57'062 -156

GOLD -152'892 -165'320 12'428

Swap Dealers

SILVER 3'484 4'111 -627

COPPER 40'468 40'552 -84

GOLD -108'528 -104'352 -4'176

0 0

0 0

Large Speculators

SILVER 34'851 35'038 -187

COPPER 18'680 17'908 772

GOLD 217'279 223'637 -6'358

Small Speculators

SILVER 14'101 11'557 2'544

COPPER -1'930 -1'399 -531

GOLD 44'140 46'036 -1'896

Cftc March 21 2010

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