Central Texas Education Snapshot 2007 San Marcos Profile.

Central TexasEducation Snapshot

2007

San Marcos Profile

What is the E3 Alliance?

A catalyst for change in Central Texas andin regions across the state

Building a research-based regional blueprint to align our education systems

to better fulfill the potential of every citizen and in turn, increase economic outcomes.

Acknowledgements

Authors:

Susan Dawson

Hannah Gourgey

Dan Murphy

Jeff Schulz

Jim Walker

This Snapshot would not be possible without:

Contributors:Steve MurdockEd FullerTony GrassoJon HockenyosMeg MooreTEA: Nina Taylor Perry Weirich Uri Woli (& others)

THECB: Donn Godin Julie Eklund (& others)

Region 13: Kathy Burbank (& others)

Funders:

AARO

Austin Community College District

Michael & Susan Dell Foundation

Opportunity Austin

Texas Education Agency

(Complete list of funders at www.e3alliance.org)

What is the Snapshot?

• A comprehensive review of education in Central Texas:– Who and where our students are – Performance outcomes – Comparisons by demographic and district– Factors influencing student achievement – Where and how students matriculate into college– Ultimate education success rates– Recommendations based on initial findings

This type of comprehensive review has never before been compiled for any region in the state, and offers us detailed guidance in building the Central Texas Blueprint for Change.

OV-1

Why a Regional Snapshot?

1. To use as a communication tool in our efforts to engage the region around systemic change in education

2. To focus and drive our more detailed research

3. From Information to Action: to guide regional Alignment activities

OV-2

Snapshot Overview• Economics: Central Texas in the 21st Century

• The Demographics of Change

• The Student Experience: K-12

– Findings and Trends

– Achievement Gap: Problems and Progress

– Math & Science: Not on Target

– Limited English Proficient: Different Approaches

– Drop Outs: The Central Texas Picture

• The Student Experience: College Readiness

• The Student Experience: Higher Education

– Higher Education Matriculation

– Remediation in Higher Education

– Regional Graduation Rates

– Fields of Study

Selected Findings

1. Student achievement is improving, but large disparities between groups remain

Differences in district demographics don’t fully explain gaps in student performance

2. Students face greatest difficulties in transitions Elementary-to-middle school, middle-to-high school, high school-

to-college, community college to 4-year degree programs

3. Math & science achievement gaps are large and -- in some cases – growing

Lack of distribution of qualified teachers into high needs schools

4. Limited English Proficiency (LEP) students are the most rapidly growing demographic group

Performance is improving but far below peers in all categoriesOV-4

Selected Findings

5. More students complete more rigorous coursework Yet far too few demonstrate college readiness

6. Data at higher ed levels is just emerging to allow detailed, consistent analysis

Differences in developmental education and transfer standards complicate consistent tracking

7. The college graduation rate of students from Central Texas is 41% Still far below Closing the Gaps Goals Over half of CT degree-seeking college students are non-traditional

8. Overall, too few students Graduate high school Go to college, and Get a post-secondary degree … to meet our regional economic needs and create a globally

competitive future for Central Texas

OV-5

Central Texas Economics: Highlights

• Education attainment is not keeping pace with economic need

• Meeting Closing the Gaps goals would likely yield an additional $1.9 trillion by 2030 for the State1

• Meeting educational attainment goals would increase employment by more than 100,000 jobs

EC-1A

1: A Tale of Two States and One Million Jobs by the Perryman Group, 2007

Texas Today: Huge Disparities in Degree Attainment

Degree Attainment in 2000 - Texans 25 and Over

Source: Texas State Data Center

EC-2

Low skills,Low Touch

High skills,High Touch

High skills,Low Touch

Low skills,High Touch

…And Workforce Needs are Shifting

90% of fastest growing jobs require

some post-secondary education

2/3 of new jobs in the next decade

need at least a Bachelors DegreeIn raw #s, fastest growth jobs

are high touch, lower skill H

um

an

To

uch

(In

tera

ctio

n)

Req

uir

ed

Skill/Education RequiredSource: US Census Data

EC-9

Central Texas Not Meeting “Closing the Gaps” Goals

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2000 2003 2005 2008 2010 2013 2015

Closing Gaps Target Actual 2000 Trajectory

College-Bound Central Texans

Source: Greater AustinChamber

EC-3

18.8%

29.0% 28.7%

18.2%

5.3%

30.1%28.7%

23.9%

12.9%

4.4%

No H.S. Diploma H.S. Graduate Some College Bachelor Degree Grad/Prof Degree

2000 2040

Projected % of Texas Population Ages 18 to 65 by Educational Attainment

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

Without Systemic Change, Attainment will Drop Even More

EC-4Source: State Demographer Steve Murdock; http://txsdc.utsa.edu/tpepp/2006projections/summary/

Represents a 6.2% drop in bachelors and above degrees

http://txsdc.utsa.edu/tpepp/2006projections/summary/

The Future of Central Texas will Dim if We Don’t Increase College-Going Rates

• We stand to lose over 85,000 jobs

• We face personal income loss close to $10 Billion

• Total expenditures (spending on retail, local purchases, real estate, etc.) decline by over $40 Billion

Source: The Perryman Group EC-13

EC-14

The Demographics of Change

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

Community Type

Gro

wth

Ra

te

Major Urban

Major Suburban

Other Central City

Other Central City Suburban

Independent Town

Non-Metro: Fast-Growing

Non-Metro: Stable

Rural

District Type; Rate of Growth

Manor

Austin

RoundRock Elgin

Hutto

EanesPrairie Lea

Bastrop

Urban Small TownSuburban Rural

Leander

ThrallGeorgetown

Fredericksburg

LagoVista

LulingSan Marcos

TEA Snapshot; % Growth over 4 year period 2001-2005Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved

Central Texas Student Enrollment Growth, 2001-02 to 2005-06

39.2%

29.2%

19.8%

14.9%

2.3%

41.4%LEP

Economically Disadvantaged

Hispanic

African-American

All Students

White

Disproportionate Growth Among Student Populations

Source: TEA, 2001-2002 and 2005-2006 AEIS Reports

Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved

Economically Disadvantaged:Where we’ve Been…

Source: TEA, 2005-2006 AEIS Reports

1997-98

DM-8


Where We are Now…

2005-06


DM-9


Breakdown of Districts Based on Percent Economically Disadvantaged Students

Districts with 50% - 75% Economically Disadvantaged Students

50.4 52.5 5457.7 59.4 60.1 60.3 60.4 61.8 63.2

69.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Jarrell

Granger

Bastrop

Lockhart

Taylor

Elgin

Austin

Luling

San Marcos

Prairie Lea

Manor

Source: TEA AEIS

11 of 35 Districts


Student Population Change by District 2001-2002 to 2005-2006 for Districts with 50%-75% Economically

Disadvantaged Students

-14%

-7%-3% -2%

0% 1%6%

12% 13%18%

60%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%Prairie Lea

Jarrell

Taylor

Luling

Lockhart

San Marcos

Austin

Granger

Elgin

Bastrop

Manor

TEA, 2005-2006 AEIS ReportsCopyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved

The Student Experience: K – 12 Highlights

• Findings and Trends

• Achievement Gap: Problems and Progress

• Math & Science: Not on Target

• Limited English Proficient Students: Different Approaches

• Drop Outs: The Central Texas Picture

Disparities Between Math and ELA at Exit Level TAKS

Percent Passing ELA and Math Exit Level TAKS, 2006

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Del Valle Bastrop Austin SanMarcos

SmallAVERAGE

MediumAVERAGE

Manor RoundRock

Eanes

Per

cen

t

ELA

Math

7 Target Districts; Averages of Small and Medium

Source: TEA AEIS Reports Copyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved


Central Texas 2005 High School Graduation Rate

Source: TEA Division of Performance Reporting, Ad-hoc Report

K12-15


TAKS Gaps Vary Among Districts

8th Grade TAKS Passing All Tests

0

20

40

60

80

100

Austin Manor MediumAverage

SanMarcos

RoundRock

Eanes Bastrop Del Valle SmallAverage

Percent 8th Grade White Students TAKS Passing All TestsAVG Percent 8th Grade Black & Hispanic Students TAKS Passing All Tests

2006 TAKS, 2005 Graduation TEA Results Calculated: White – Average of (Hispanic, African-American). Small Districts use White - Hispanic Scores

Gap betweenethnic groups

15%


Limited English Proficient Students: Different Approaches

1. Most rapidly growing population of any demographic group

2. Many suburban districts are new to addressing this population’s needs

3. Performance improving over time4. However, performance of LEP students far below

peers in all categories5. LEP students coming in at higher grades pose big

issues6. Different ideologies within and among districts: support

two languages versus English immersion

Percent of Students Classified as Limited English Proficient, Grouped by District Size

1.2%

5.2% 5.8%

12.7%

4.9%7.3% 7.7%

15.4%

Charter Small Medium Large

2001-2002 LEP

2005-2006 LEP

Source: TEA 2001-2002 and 2005-2006 AEIS Reports

LEP Population Experiencing Significant Growth

San Marcos LEP Population grew 16% over the past 5 years

Source: TEA, 2001-2002 and 2005-2006 AEIS ReportsCopyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved

LEP Achievement Gap – Starts off Small in Elementary School

San Marcos LEP Achievement Gap: 2006 TAKS

0102030405060708090

100

3rd Grade Reading 3rd Grade Math 5th Grade Reading 5th Grade Math

Pas

sin

g R

ate

All Students

LEP



But Greatly Widens in Upper Grades


San Marcos LEP Achievement Gap: 2004 - 2005

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

8th-

Gra

de A

llT

AK

S T

ests

Gra

duat

ion

Rat

e

Min

imum

HS

Pla

n

Rec

omm

ende

dH

S P

lan

Dis

tingu

ishe

dA

chie

vem

ent

Pla

n

All Students

LEP


Drop Outs: The Central Texas Picture

1. Some progress has been made over time

2. But the graduation rate remains FAR too low for all groups

3. “All but TAKS” – new group that needs to be followed

4. Large disparities in reporting methods: drop outs versus TEA graduation rate versus external assessment of attrition rates

5. Costs to the state are huge

Student Enrollment by GradeSan Marcos Student Enrollment

by Grade 2005 - 2006

0100200300400500600700

Kin

der

gar

ten

2nd

4th

6th

8th

10th

12th

Drop Outs


Students fail 8th grade TAKS but are not yet retained


The Student Experience: College Readiness

1. Many more students are completing more rigorous high school coursework

2. But far too few students demonstrate college readiness based on current assessments

3. Performance for those who take college entrance exams varies widely by race/ethnicity

4. Males showed higher rates in math readiness on TSI for ALL 31 districts reporting scores

District Breakdown: Graduating DAP or RHSP

District Graduation by Plan, 22 Large and Medium Districts2004-2005 Graduates

0

20

40

60

80

100

Per

cen

t of G

rad

uat

es

Recommended High School Plan Distinguished Achievement Plan

Source: TEA Division of Performance Reporting, Ad-hoc ReportCR-9


Note: Eanes ISD not included because not all SAT/ACT data available

Source: 2005-06 AEIS Report and the Top 10% of state in grad rates

High School Plan May Not Correlate to College Enrollment

Comparison of 7 Target Districts with Texas Districts in Top 10% for College Matriculation

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Grads w/ RHSPor DAP

Grads Found inHigher ED

Grads TakingSAT or ACT

Grads AboveCriterion

Austin

Bastrop

Del Valle

Manor

Round Rock

San Marcos

Top 10 %Average

CR-10


College Admission Test Taking Varies by District

Graduation and College Testing, 2005

0102030405060708090

100

Bastrop SanMarcos

Austin Manor Del Valle RoundRock

Per

cen

t Graduates SAT/ACT Tested

Graduation Rate, 2005

Source: 2005-2006 AEIS ReportCR-3


College Admission Tests – Administration and Readiness

2005 SAT or ACT Participation and Performance, All Districts and Charters

9.2

38.9

73.5 71.1

51.2

79.4

29.1

7.0

All African-American

Hispanic White

Pe

rce

nt

Graduates Tested

Graduates Scoring "AboveCriterion"

Source: TEA Division of Performance Reporting, Ad-hoc ReportCopyright ©. Texas Education Agency. All Rights Reserved

San Marcos ISD College Admission Tests

2005 SAT or ACT Participation and Performance: San Marcos ISD

53%63%

36%

74%

20%21%

6%

34%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

AllStudents

AfricanAmerican

Hispanic White

Graduates Tested

Graduates Scoring"Above Criterion"



TSI Performance Rates on All Standards are LowTarget Texas Success Initiative Pass Rates 2003

010

2030

405060

7080

90100

Austin ISD BastropISD

Del ValleISD

Eanes ISD Manor ISD RoundRock ISD

SanMarcosCISD

Rate of Passing

% Met All Standards (of grads) % Met Math Standards (of tested)

% Met Writing Standards (of tested) %Met Reading Standards (of tested)

Note: TSI is the standard used to determine readiness to enroll in higher education without developmental coursework

http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/reports/xls/1156.xls

CR-12



Student Experience: Higher Education

• There are 98,500 undergraduates enrolled in the region’s 7 higher education institutions :– ACC - Texas State – San Marcos– Concordia University - St. Edward’s University– Huston-Tillotson - Southwestern University

– University of Texas at Austin

• Of those, 49,000 come from Central Texas• About half of high school graduates from the

Austin MSA who enroll in college do so in Central Texas

HE-1

CarnegieClassification Undergraduate

Enrollment

MedianACT/SAT

Score

Average Tuition &Fees – TX Residents.

2 Semesters

Concordia University

PrivateBaccalaureate –Diverse 1,200 1015 $16,740

Huston-Tillotson University

PrivateBaccalaureate -Arts & Sciences 600 755 $ 9,218

Southwestern University

PrivateBaccalaureate –Arts & Sciences 1,300 1232 $23,650

St. Edward’s University

Private Master’s -Large Program 4,229 1130 $18,800

Texas State University

Public Master’s -Large Program 23,600 1060 $ 5,800

University of TexasPublic Research -Very High Level 37,000 1235 $ 8,788

Austin Community College

Public Associates - Diverse 33,200 NA $ 1,600

CT Higher Education Overview

Information self-reported by institution, THECB, College Results OnlineHE-2

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

ACC

Texas

Sta

te S

an M

arco

s

UTSA

Blinn

Colleg

e

UT Aus

tin

Concord

ia

Huston

Tillotso

n

St. Edwar

d's

South

western

Nu

mb

er o

f st

ud

ents

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

'01-

05

Number of CT Students Enrolled Percent Change from 01-05

College Enrollment of Central Texas Entering Freshmen

Source: THECB Aggregated Data Request and publicly available data

HE-6

Higher Education Matriculation

1. About half of Central Texas students matriculate into college in Texas

2. About half of those go to Central Texas colleges

3. To meet the “Closing the Gaps” goals, we need 20K more students in higher education by 2010; almost 40K by 2015

4. More and more of our students are “non-traditional” – not 18-24 year old full time college goers

Ethnic Breakdown of CT Grads NOT Quickly Matriculating

FY1998-2005: Percentage Non-Matriculating Graduates by Ethnicity; Fall Following H.S. Graduation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1998-2000 2001-2003 2004-2005

Cohort

Pe

rce

nt

No

n-M

atr

icu

lati

ng

Afr. Amer

Asian/Native Amer.

Hispanic

White

THECB Requested Aggregate Data

Gaps Still Exist But Closing Slightly Across Ethnicity/Race

Higher Education Matriculation –Economically Disadvantaged Students

Matriculation Rate of Economically -Disadvantaged Students by District

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Austin Bastrop Del Valle Eanes Manor Round Rock San Marcos

AUSTIN COMMUNITY COLLEGE Other 2-year

TEXAS STATE UNIV-SAN MARCOS U. OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN

Other 4-year

Source: THECB Requested Aggregate Data

Higher Education Matriculation –Non-Economically Disadvantaged Students

The increase in “other 4-year” category largely attributed to UTSA and UT Arlington THECB Requested Aggregate Data

FY04-05 Matriculation Rate - Non-Economically Disadvantaged Students

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Austin Bastrop Del Valle Eanes Manor Round Rock San Marcos

AUSTIN COMMUNITY COLLEGE Other 2-year

TEXAS STATE UNIV-SAN MARCOS U. OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN

Other 4-Year

College Remediation Varies Widelyby District

Percent Students Requiring Remediation by District 98-04

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

98-00

2001-03

2004-05

THECB: Aggregated Data Request

Includes all large and E3 target districts

DE-4

Regional Graduation (and Transfer) Rates

1.Rate of graduation (completion of degree within 6-years of enrolling) varies greatly by college and by district

2.The graduation rate of students from Central Texas is 33%, ~4% lower than the overall state graduation rate

3.Smaller Colleges and Universities consider transfers to 4 year institution + graduation a success, but are unable to report these students as such

6 Year Graduation Rates

Undergraduate Enrollment

Percent of StartingUndergraduates who

Graduate

Rate including Transfers Out

Graduating

Concordia University 1,200 31.5% ?

Huston-Tillotson University 600 15.8% ?

Southwestern University 1,300 75.1% ?

St. Edward’s University 4,229 52.2% ?

Texas State University 23,600 46% 53%

University of Texas 37,000 74% 74.8%

Austin Community College 33,200 See next tableInformation self-reported by institution, graduation rate from US Dept. of Ed. IntegratedPost-Secondary Education Data System (Privates), & THECB (Publics)1998-2004 6-Year Graduation Rate

http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/Reports/PDF/1248.PDF GR-2

ACC Graduation & Transfer Graduation Rates

Degree or Status Graduation Rate

Baccalaureate or aboveGraduated with at least a BA/BS from a Texas public or

private institution

27.9%

Associate 4.0%

Certificate 1.7%

Total 33.6%

THECB 1999 report based on a 6 year graduation rateGR-3

High Levels of Economically-Disadvantaged Students Correlates with Low College

Graduation Rates

Source: THECB Aggregate Data Request

Wide Variation in College Graduation Rates Across Large Districts

Six-Year Graduation Rate for 7 Target Districts FY 2001-03

30%

21%16%

48%

23%

38%

31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Austin ISD Bastrop ISD Del ValleISD

Eanes ISD Manor ISD Round RockISD

San MarcosISD

Source: THECB Aggregate Data Request

• CT (including A&M and UTSA) graduates more engineers now than in 2002

• Still need to increase the number of graduates in key “STEM” fields (e.g. sciences, engineering, and computer engineering)

• Health Sciences face critical shortages, particularly in nursing. Two new programs slated to come on line between 2008 and 2010.

• Industry demands are for “engineers who can communicate.” Need to still consider importance of soft skills and well-rounded critical thinkers.

Fields of Study

FS-1

97-99 Cohorts Graduates - Key STEM Degrees

905421

32153

Biological and BiomedicalSciences

Health Sciences

Engineering

Computer Science

Mathematics

350 of a total of 4,129 Central Texas students graduating with Baccalaureate degrees from CT public institutions

THECB: Aggregate Data Request FS-2

Preliminary Recommendations

PR-1

Preliminary Recommendations (1)• K-12 Overall

– Share Snapshot with youth services organizations as means for deploying services more strategically

– Implement Chamber Progress Report in all seven target districts– Focus on leadership capacity & stability: change management,

goals prioritization, strategic planning– Consider regional strategic compensation strategy to retain key

teachers & principals

• Achievement Gaps– Hold regional deliberations on achievement gap implications for

different constituencies– Analyze and share data/lessons where similar districts show

differing gaps

PR-2

Preliminary Recommendations (2)• Limited English Proficient (LEP) Students

– Heighten awareness of implications in slowly changing districts (Biggest gaps are often where districts change slowly)

– Build on Feria work – sharing information on how to engage parents in child’s education with Spanish-speaking families

– Develop forums for sharing data/outcomes on competing approaches to bilingual education

– Standardize bilingual/LEP criteria, curriculum, evaluation

• Math/Science– Join statewide teacher quality study – Examine assignment stipends as part of strategic compensation– Expand proven summer bridge programs and team-based

coaching for math and science students– Expand proven summer bridge programs in math remediation

BEFORE fall classes commence– Support regional Science, Technology, Engineering and Math

(STEM) effortsPR-3

Preliminary Recommendations (3)

• Drop Outs– Provide a “cheat sheet” to help the community understand

dropout data and economic implications– Identify and support successful early interventions– Share best practices from innovative retention/recovery

programs (e.g. 9th grade structures, AYW, Garza)

• College Readiness– Work with the state to develop more robust college readiness

measures– Standardize college readiness assessment tools for more

consistent use– Work with THSP to spread strong high school redesign models

supporting college and career readiness

PR-4

Preliminary Recommendations (4)• College Matriculation

– Support Chamber 20,010 by 2010 goal and programs– Broaden proven matriculation programs (e.g. College Connection,

College Forward, College: GO Get It)– Better articulate high school-to-college curriculum, assessment,

and institute pathways through statewide P-16 efforts– Collect and provide more consistent tracking of student

matriculation and transfer data

• Developmental Education– Correlate local and national (sometimes conflicting) data on

impacts of remediation on college success– Share best practices in successful developmental intervention

programs (e.g. Texas State)

PR-5

Preliminary Recommendations (5)

• Graduation & Completion– Provide “seamless” transfer paths and support

programs for higher level degrees (e.g. nursing articulation)

– Share best practices for increasing degree completion at all levels

– Develop short and long range plans for meeting higher ed capacity needs

– Correlate college degrees and counseling with high demand job pathways to strengthen the regional economy

PR-6

Where Do We Go From Here?

• Share with constituencies across the region• Deliberate recommendations with key players• Overlay qualitative data and national literature

review• Focus longitudinal research and areas of further

study– Separate individual characteristics (e.g.

socioeconomic status vs. ethnicity)– Track individual experiences (e.g. previous LEP vs.

new immigrant)– Correlate interventions

• Expand research and alignment to Early Childhood and Workforce arenas

PR-7

Why a Regional Snapshot?

1. To use as a communication tool in our efforts to engage the region around systemic change in education

2. To focus and drive our more detailed research

3. From Information to Action: to guide regional Alignment activities

PR-8

For More Information …

Hannah Gourgey

Director of Analysis and Alignment

E3 Alliance

[email protected]

www.e3alliance.org

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.e3alliance.org/

Central Texas Education Snapshot 2007 San Marcos Profile.

Documents

central texas blueprint

developmental education

education systems

central texas picture

student achievement

college readiness

student experience

student performance