Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends Texas State University School Relations Retreat December 17, 2012 San Marcos, Texas
Jan 12, 2016
Texas Demographic Characteristics and Trends
Texas State University School Relations Retreat
December 17, 2012San Marcos, Texas
2
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000Population*
2010Population*
NumericalChange
2000-2010
PercentChange
2000-2010
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population
3
Percent Change Due to
Year* PopulationNumerical
ChangePercentChange
NaturalIncrease
NetMigration
1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --
1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09
1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26
1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42
1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15
2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35
2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 54.94 45.06
2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.91 44.99
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011
4
Total Population by County, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10
82 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,001
100,001 - 500,001
500,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 - 4,100,000
?? 85%
5
Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
-3,200 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
79 counties lost population over the decade
6
Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010
Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census
Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010
-20%-0%
1%-10%
10.1-25%
25.1%-50%
50.1%-82%
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
-3 to -0.5
-0.49 to -.001
0
.001 to .5
.51-2.1
7
The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
Percent Increase
1. Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Wash. 4.3
2. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas 3.9
3. Hinesville-Fort Stewart, Ga. 3.44. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas 3.05. Raleigh-Cary, N.C. 2.96. Warner Robins, Ga. 2.97. Provo-Orem, Utah 2.7
8. Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, S.C. 2.6
9. Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach-Conway, S.C. 2.6
10. Yuma, Ariz. 2.6
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
8
The 10 Metro Areas with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
NumericIncrease
1. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 154,774
2. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas 139,699
3. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va. 121,911
4. New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. 118,791
5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. 115,964
6. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla. 105,490
7. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. 90,345
8. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 80,146
9. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz. 70,349
10. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas 67,230
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
9
The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
NumericIncrease
1. Harris, Texas 88,4522. Los Angeles, Calif. 70,4513. Maricopa, Ariz. 63,1274. Miami-Dade, Fla. 58,3315. Riverside, Calif. 49,9796. Dallas, Texas 47,8757. Orange, Calif. 45,5138. San Diego, Calif. 44,7569. Bexar, Texas 41,37610. Tarrant, Texas 40,776
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
Texas contains eight of the 25 counties with the highest numerical gains
10
Job Growth
11
Estimated domestic migration by county, 2000-2010
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, 2012. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
Compoch$.domig
-280,000 to --3,000
-2999 to 0
1- 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,000 - 220,000
12
Estimated international migration by county, 2000-2010
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
Compoch$.inmig
-1,400 to 0
1 to 500
501 to 2,500
2,501 to 50,000
50,000 to 280,000
13http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
14http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
15
Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity
Net domesti
c migr
ation
Internati
onal migr
ation
Total0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
44%24% 33%
28%50% 40%
23% 8% 15%
5%18% 12%
OtherBlackHispanicWhite
67% of all migrants
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau
(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)
52% of all migrants were international
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010
NH White53%
NH Black12%
NH Other
4%
Hispanic or Latino
32%
2000
NH White45%
NH Black11%
NH Other
6%
His-panic or Latino38%
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
17
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic
Age
Popu
latio
n
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
18Under 1 year
4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
NH White Male NH White Female
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
19Under 1 year
4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male Hispanic FemaleNH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
20Under 1 year
4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male NH White FemaleHispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak English less than very well by state, 2009
Californ
iaTexa
s
Nevada
New York
New Jerse
y
Hawaii
Florid
a
Arizona
New Mexic
o
Miss
issippi
North Dak
ota
Vermont
Montan
a
West
Virginia
0
5
10
15
20
25
Source: American Community Survey, 2009
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2009
Texas
Californ
ia
New Mexic
o
Arizona
Nevada
Florid
a
New Jerse
y
New York
Montan
a
North Dak
ota
Main
e
West
Virginia
Vermont
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: American Community Survey, 2009
Percent of population that is foreign born, 2005-2009
Percent Foreign Born0-5%
5-10%
10-15%
15-25%
25-35%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2005-2009Percent aged 5 years plus who speak Spanish at home
0-10%
10-25%
25-50%
50-75%
75-96%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
25
Number of Linguistically Isolated Households, by County, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
Culberson
Reeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Polk
Starr
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
GrayOldham
Tyler
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Kenedy
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Brazoria
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
LeeTravis
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Taylor
Zapata
Real
Bowie
Coryell
Brown
Motley
YoungGarza
Lamar
Martin
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor Archer
Scurry
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Hardin
Bailey
Deaf Smith
DeWitt
Lavaca
Donley
Atascosa
Hays
Goliad
Denton
Fannin
El Paso
Wharton
Crane
Carson
Tarrant
Crosby
Borden
Schleicher
Haskell
Gillespie
Randall
Shelby
Foard
BriscoeParmer
Mitchell
Wood
Menard
Panola
Walker
Kleberg
Winkler
Nueces
Harrison
Eastland
Loving
Bandera
Wichita
Willacy
Hood
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
Bosque
Concho
Runnels
Fayette
Newton
Live Oak
Sterling
Jim Hogg
Wilson
Victoria
McMullen
Roberts
Trinity
Howard
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Matagorda
Gonzales
Anderson
Dawson
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Jefferson
Colorado
Lubbock
Red River
Karnes
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
Montague
Cameron
Cochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
Freestone
ComancheGlasscock
JohnsonHenderson
Montgomery
Brazos
Van Zandt
Robertson
Waller
Upshur
Sabine
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
Guadalupe
Caldwell Chambers
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Calhoun
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Galveston
Franklin
Aransas
Somervell
Rockwall
Calhoun
Calhoun
Kenedy
Galveston
Kleberg
Aransas
Nueces
Willacy
Cameron
Calhoun
Pct of LI HH SpanishLingIsoHH
0
1-5000
5001-30,000
30,001-100,000
100,001-180,000
$18,000-30,000
$ 30,000-35,000
$ 35,000-40,000
$40,000-50,000
$ 50,000-76,000
Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Percent of population aged 25 years and older with high school or equivalent degree or higher
2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Percent 25+ with High School Degree45-55%
55-65%
65-75%
75-85%
85-98%
Percent of population aged 25 years and older
with Bachelors degree or higher. 2005-2009Percent 25 + with Bachelors
6-15%
15-20%
20-25%
25-35%
35-50%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
29
Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011
Level of Educational Attainment
Percent of persons aged 25 years and older
State Ranking
High school diploma or equivalency or greater
81.1% 48/49/50 (tied with CA
and MS)Bachelors or greater 26.4% 29
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.
30
Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 2009
19%
6%
71%
3%
67%
8%
15%
9%
Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.Less Than High School
College and Greater
31
One Year Persistence Rate of First-Time Entering Undergraduates by Parent's Educational Level Public University in Texas, 2010
Graduate
Bacca
laureate
Some Colle
ge/A
ssoc
No College
Unknown
Total74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94% 92.9%
91.7%
86.3%85.1%
81.3%
87.2%
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
Parent’s educational attainment
Pe
rce
nt
of
stu
de
nt’s
e
nro
llin
g in
se
con
d y
ea
r
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Education Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.
No High School Diploma
High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional Degree
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
18.8
29.0 28.7
18.2
5.3
30.128.7
23.9
12.9
4.4
2000 2040
Perc
ent
33
20102012
20142016
20182020
20222024
20262028
20302032
20342036
20382040
20422044
20462048
205020,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000Zero.5 of 2000-20102000-2010
Migration Scenarios
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
34
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050
20102013
20162019
20222025
20282031
20342037
20402043
20462049
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
NH-WhiteNH-BlackHispanicNH-Other
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
35
Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
F6
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
36
Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
F5
LT 0%
0-40%
41-100%
101-250%
251-500%
37
Under 5
05-09
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000
Male Female
Texas P0pulation Pyramid, 2010 and 2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 and Texas State Data Center 2012. .o5 Migration Scenario
38
Demographics and Destiny
38
39
Contact
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.