Census.ac.uk The UK Census Longitudinal Studies Chris Dibben, University of St Andrews.

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The UK Census Longitudinal Studies

Chris Dibben, University of St Andrews

Censu

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uk

The England and Wales: Longitudinal Study covers England and Wales: approximately 1% sample: 1971 onwards – c. 540,000http://celsius.census.ac.uk

The Scottish Longitudinal Study covers Scotland: 5.3% sample: 1991 onwards – c. 280,000http://lscs.ac.uk

The Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study covers Northern Ireland: 28% sample: 2001 onwards - c.500,000); http://www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/NILSResearchSupportUnit/

-also the Northern Ireland Mortality Study: 100% sample, links deaths since 2001 to 2001 Census data`

The Longitudinal Studies:

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England and Wales: Longitudinal Study Structure

1971

Original sample: 530,000;

selected from 1971 Census

1981

536,000 sample

members found at 1981

Census

1991

543,000 sample

members found at 1991

Census

2001

540,000sample

members found at 2001

Census

Plus members of household

Plus members of household

Plus members of household

Plus members of household

Entrants (1971-2006) New Births 255,700 Immigrants 146,100

Exits (1971-2006) Deaths 226,200 Embarkations 35,800

Births to sample women 243,700Events 1971 – 2006 Widow(er)hoods 78,100

Cancer registrations (to 2005) 104,800

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Migration & travel to work

Economic activity

Ecological (area level) data

Occupation & social class

Education(all levels 2001)

Ethnicity (1991 & 2001)

Religion (2001)

Caregiving(2001)

Housing and amenities

Self-rated health (2001)

Long-term illness (1991 & 2001)

Deaths(cause specific)

Cancer Registrations

Births of LS Members

Emigrations (recorded)

Immigrations

Widow(er)hoods

Live Births to Sample Mothers

Still Births to Sample Mothers

Infant Deaths to Sample Mothers

Marital status & family type

‘Events’ added each year

Census Data

What does the LS

contain?

Core data in all the LS’s

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Can add in hospital admissions

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Types of study design using the Census Longitudinal Studies

1.Cross-sectional at each census (1971,1981,1991, 2001)

2.Longitudinal: investigating same people at 2+ Census points

3.Longitudinal: fertility, cancer incidence and mortality by Census characteristics before and after the event

4.Cross-sequential : comparing change in two cohorts (e.g. class mobility 1971 to 1991 with class mobility 1981 to 2001)

5.Inter-generational (parental characteristics of sample members by their adult characteristics in a later Census)

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How to use the LS’s: conditions imposed by the need for confidentiality

•Data are held in secure setting and can’t be downloaded

•Projects are scrutinised by a Board before approval

•Safe Setting Access to LS:

• ONS - London, Hampshire or South Wales

• NRS– Edinburgh

• NISRA - Belfast

•- or send code (eg in STATA or SPSS) which will be run for them by CeLSIUS support officers

•Individual-level data cannot leave the secure setting – instead, tables, models or aggregated datasets are released

•Outputs are scrutinised for possible disclosive elements (can limit detail of ethnicity, small-area geography and occupation)

•Presentations, articles, theses etc. must be scrutinised again before being made public and the standards are more rigorous.

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Work, permanent sickness and mortality risk: a prospective cohort study of England and Wales, 1971-2006

Akinwale B, Lynch K, Wiggins R, Harding S, Bartley M & Blane D

Published in Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 2010, 10.1136/jech.2009.099325

The research question:

•labour market participation by men has fallen in recent decades.

•much of this decline is accounted for by increases in permanent

sickness.

•there is speculation that some of the permanently sick have less

severe conditions than previously.

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The study:

•used data from the ONS Longitudinal Study

•samples were selected from each census: 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001

•of men aged 55-69 and women aged 50-64

•either employed, unemployed or economically inactive at census

•samples were followed up for five years to identify deaths

•analysis: age-specific death rates, Standardised Mortality Ratios, odds of reporting limiting long-term illness

Results:

•the pattern of relative mortality risk remained remarkably stable during 1971-2001

•for both men and women of working ages, it was persistently lowest among those in work and highest among the permanently sick

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Labour market position

1971 1981 1991 2001

In work 100 100 100 100

Unemployed 115 110 133 151

Retired 175 149 131 135

Permanently sick

298 299 290 318

Other inactive 230 212 153 174

Table 4 Standardised Mortality Ratios for men aged 55-64

Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, authors’ analysis. Deaths 1-5 years after census.

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Background:Suicide rates vary between areas: individual characteristics (composition) or area characteristics (context)?

Aim:To determine if area factors are independently related to suicide risk after adjustment for individual and family characteristics.

Method:5-year record linkage study using NIMS based on c.1.1 million individuals aged 16-74 years (and not living in communal establishments)

Results:i. suicide risks lowest for women & for those married/cohabiting;ii. higher relative risks recorded in more deprived & socially

fragmented areas disappeared after adjustment for individual & household disadvantage

Area Factors & Suicide

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Suicide (Daily Mirror)

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Long-term health conditions

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2011 Census – Other key changes

• General Health - Expanded from a 3 point scale in 2001 to a 5 point scale in 2011

• Limiting long term illness - expanded

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2011 Census – Other key changes

• Marital status question expanded to allow people to indicate their civil partnership status following the Civil Partnership Act

2004

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School Education data – 3 datasets.

- School Census data- SQA attainment data - Attendance/ absence & exclusions

data available

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1947 Scottish Mental Survey

1939 register

Birth1936

ED code, address, household members:

marital status, occupation

The Scottish Longitudinal

study

Scottish morbidity records

1939 books recorded the date of death (up to 1980)

linkage to the death database (1974 onwards)

Education

Employment

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Early life environment

1970

34

Hospitalisation

Mortality

Birth1936

0Age

Year

Mental ability

11

SchoolAchievement

(time estimated)

1947

Occupation (estimated)

1991

55

Detailed household/ individual

information

2001 2011

65 75

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