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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Feb 18, 2016

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Aarti Industries Ltd

No. of shares (m) 83.32

Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 3714/541.5

Current price (Rs/$) 446/6.5

Price target (Rs/$) 553/8.1

52 W H/L (Rs.) 587/267

Book Value (Rs/$) 124/1.8

Beta 0.9

Daily volume (avg. monthly) 35348

P/BV (FY16e/17e) 3.1/2.6

EV/EBITDA (FY16e/17e) 9.1/7.9

P/E (FY16e/17e) 14.2/12.1

EPS growth (FY15/16e/17e) 28.9/38.8/17.4

OPM (FY15/16e/17e) 16.0/19.6/18.7

ROE (FY15/16e/17e) 21.2/23.6/23.3

ROCE(FY15/16e/17e) 14.7/15.0/15.7

D/E ratio (FY15/16e/17e) 1.2/1.0/0.8

BSE Code 524208

NSE Code AARTIIND

Bloomberg ARTO IN

Reuters ARTI.BO

Shareholding pattern %

Promoters 54.8

MFs / Banks / FIs 12.4

Foreign 3.3 .3 Govt. Holding 0.0

Non-Promoter Corp. 1.2

Total Public 28.3

Total 100.0

As on Dec 31, 2015

Recommendation

BUY

Analyst

KISHAN GUPTA, CFA, FRM

Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0043

E- mail: [email protected]

Consolidated (Rs crs)

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16e

FY17e

Income from ops. 2096.25 2632.49 2907.96 2727.38 3307.60

Other Income 3.76 10.97 9.01 2.17 2.17

EBITDA (other income included) 364.96 412.45 474.70 536.27 619.96

Profit after MI & associate profit

134.05 155.51 200.50 261.73 307.16

EPS(Rs) 16.94 17.55 22.63 31.41 36.87

EPS growth (%) 32.1 3.6 28.9 38.8 17.4

Company Brief AIL is one of India's leading manufacturers of chemicals and pharmaceutical

intermediates: dyestuff; pigment; agro chemicals; speciality chemicals; active

pharmaceutical ingredient (API); intermediates of API.

Quarterly Highlights

� Buffeted by relentless fall in crude oil prices, Aarti’s speciality chemicals

revenue dived 8.1% in first nine months of current fiscal compared to that in

the same period a year ago. Volume growth in mid teens though helped

soften the blow to earnings. Helped by enhanced NCB capacity production

of NCB rose 21.6% to 46950 tons in 9MFY16 as against 38620 tons a year ago.

Hydrogenation output jumped to 2040 tpm in Q3FY16 from average run rate

of 1600-1650 tpm last fiscal; Aarti is targeting peak rate of 2300 tpm by FY17.

� For Aarti's pharmaceutical business posting volume growth of 20% is no t an

aberration. Gut wrenching volumes fueled 18.9% growth in revenues in

9MFY16, setting base for ~20% revenue annual growth for three years in a

row. Yet EBIT margins have eased by 300 bps to 9.4% in 9MFY16 mainly due

to cost pressures in the first two quarters. EBIT as a result declined by 9.9%.

� Thanks to Aarti’s pricing model (cost plus basis), EBIT margins of speciality

chemicals rose to record high (~21%) in 9MFY16, nearly a gain of 500 bps

yoy. Benzene prices have plunged by 37.2% to Rs 44/kg in Q3FY16 (yoy)

setting off fear of inventory loss - Rs 5 crs in Q3 alone. After posting a small

rise in Q1 (Rs 50 to 53 per kg) prices once again started to correct. EBIT

though advanced by over 20% to Rs 348 crs in 9M compared to Rs 290 crs in

the corresponding period a year back.

� HPC business continues to stagger. Revenues plunged by a shocking 42.3%

and EBIT by 92% in 9M mainly due to operational issues related to the newly

introduced products. Aarti's HPC business has struggled to rear its head for

some time now. Imposition of anti-dumping duty on one of its product

streams and inability to pass on high material costs pummeled margins in

Q3 last fiscal. Despite few setbacks, overall profits increased by 35.4% to Rs

182.83 crs in 9M compared to Rs 135.04 crs in the same period a year back.

� The stock trades at 14.2x FY16e EPS of Rs 31.41 and 12.1x FY17e EPS of Rs

36.87. Higher than estimated operating margins (19.6% vs 17.2% for FY16;

18.7% vs 16.8% for FY17) has initiated upward revision in earnings

estimates; up 11.7% for FY17. We retain our buy recommendation with

revised target of Rs 553 (previous target: Rs 396) based on 15xFY17 earnings,

over a period of 6-9 months.

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Outlook & Recommendation

Exports

Triggered by improving cost competitiveness and reliable IPR framework, India is steadfastly gaining weight in global chemical

market sweepstakes. China's economic mess has helped too. Most pertinently, rising labor costs, stricter environmental laws and

appreciation of yuan have precipitated calls for diversification of material sourcing. Since MNCs are now ever more open to

source materials from other developing economies India stands to truly gain. Chemical exports from India during 2010-14 period

outpaced the global demand growth of 3-4% by growing annually (average) by 22%. Indian government's recently touted ‘Make

in India' initiative would also help boost chemical exports from India.

Reflecting changing landscape of Indian chemical industry, speciality chemicals exports of Aarti has doubled in last three years to

fiscal 2015. Its pharmaceutical export has also thrived - up two and a half fold in last three years. To beef up exports, it is looking

to supply off-patented generics in regulated markets. It stands to corner a larger pie of the regulated markets not least due to its

envious product range - 48 commercial APIs with 33EDMF, 28 USDMF and 16 CEP.

Capex

After having commissioned the first phase of NCB capacity expansion (57000 mt to 66000 mt) during Q3FY15, Aarti got over with

the second phase (to 75000 mt) in Nov., partly reflected in 6.9% rise in NCB production last quarter. Besides increasing Aarti's

market share in both local and overseas NCB markets, higher NCB throughput would also stimulate volumes in high end user

segment such as polymers, agro and speciality chemicals. Expansion of PDA capacity - from 450 tpm to 1000tpm - would also do

its bit to galvanize Aarti's presence in high end polymers & additives.

Other volume boosting projects include a nitration unit (for nitro toluene & downstreams) and calcium chloride unit (30000 tpa

capacity) to be set up by Q1FY17. Also plans are in place for a chlorination complex at Jhagadia, which would not only increase

capacities of chloro benzene range of chemicals but also facilitate introduction of a new range of chlorinated compounds. The

proposed speciality chemical complex at Jhagadia would further help tap growing market for speciality chemicals. Enhanced

capacities of various products at Jhagadia would be profitably supported by a captive power plant - in line with the existing plant

at Vapi; a total of Rs 150 crs have been earmarked for a couple of new complexes and power plant. Other projects which would

see the light of day only in FY17 include a acid reconcentration unit at Vapi (investment: Rs 25 crs) and a ethylation and speciality

chemicals unit at Dahej SEZ (Rs 75 crs).

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Toluene based value chain

Source: Aarti

New products

Thanks to its foray in toluene chemistry - by exhibiting nitro toluene &

derivatives- Aarti's margins could further look up particularly due to

supplies to its existing network of customers. Not least to count its

enhanced market presence resulting from increased capabilities to supply

wider range of products for high end use segments like agrochemicals,

pigments, pharmaceuticals and optical brighteners. Aarti's proposed

Ethylation unit to be set up at Dahej SEZ would also rely on toluene

chemistry for feedstock. This unit, which is expected to commence

sometime in the next fiscal, would help release a range of ethylene based

chemicals catering to varied segments viz. agrochemicals, polymers,

pigments, engineering and additives.

Financials & Valuation

Brutal volatility in global crude oil markets left Aarti undeterred for most of the last few quarters. Despite setting off spate of

inventory losses - resulting from sharp fall in key raw materials like benzene, aniline, methanol and phthallic anhydride -

margins remained as solid as ever. Strong volume growth (13-14%) coupled with a meaty pricing model (cost plus basis)

helped ward off grueling effect of harsh inventory marked downs last fiscal; inventories of raw materials were marked down

by Rs 19 crs in the second half of last fiscal. Yet efficient inventory management constricted losses somewhat.

Opportunities abound for Indian speciality chemical manufacturers for MNCs now begin to tap other developing economies

to alleviate their dependence on China. FICCI reckons that domestic speciality chemicals would grow in double digits led by

sturdy growth in infrastructure (read: construction chemicals; paints; industrial cleaners; water chemicals). Optimists also

cite low per capita consumption (nearly a fifth of global average) for most categories of speciality chemicals. Yet

undermining operational challenges would be risky.

Falling chemical prices have made product repricing all the more gruesome; 80% of Aarti's contracts are re-priced monthly.

Despite economic moat in operations (integrated operations, co-product balancing et.al) Aarti's speciality volumes growth

has failed to surpass the 15% watershed in the last few years. Its revenue from dies & pigments (25-30% of speciality

chemicals business) is estimated to decline next fiscal. Still near 15% volume growth next fiscal would help register 13%

growth in speciality chemicals consolidated EBIT.

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Foray in nitro toluene & derivatives would spin its existing portfolio of value added products. In addition newer capacities of

PDA and calcium chloride will also go on stream soon. Also it plans to set up a chlorination complex and speciality chemical

complex at Jhagadia. The former project would not only increase capacities of chloro benzene range of chemicals but also

facilitate introduction of a new range of chlorinated compounds.

Aarti surmises that debottlenecking and expansion activities facilitated recent volume growth (~20%) in its pharmaceutical

business. Margins would also expand next fiscal to 11% from 9.7% largely due to increased benefits of operating leverage; not

least to mention that it is backwardly integrated for most APIs. Apart from a dozen new APIs under development it is engaging

with several innovators for tapping opportunities in API intermediates. Its new caffeine plant is expected to stabilize production

by the end of current fiscal. [

Mayhem in global crude oil markets would keep product realizations timid for at least next fiscal, which would somewhat show

up in appalling asset turnover ratios (see chart above). Prospect of significant decline in working capital also appears small. Yet

growth investors would savour current valuation of 14.2xFY16e EPS of Rs 31.41 and 12.1xFY17e EPS of Rs 36.87. Higher than

estimated operating margins (19.6% vs 17.2% for FY16; 18.7% vs 16.8% for FY17) has sparked upward revision in earnings

estimates; 11.7% for FY17. We retain our buy recommendation with revised target of Rs 553 (previous target: Rs 396) based on

15xFY17 earnings, over a period of 6-9 months. (For more info, refer to our June 15 report).

Cross Sectional Analysis

Company Equity* CMP Mcap* Sales* Profit* OPM NPM

Int.

cov. ROE

Mcap

/ sales P/BV P/E

Atul 30 1349 4002 2457 248 16.3 10.1 15.5 23.5 1.6 3.3 16.1

Sudarshan Chem 14 81 561 1162 53 11.4 4.6 3.6 16.5 0.5 1.7 10.5

Aarti Industries 42 446 3714 2696 232 19.0 8.6 3.6 25.2 1.4 3.6 16.0

BASF India 43 752 3254 4672 -284 -0.2 -6.1 -1.6 -22.9 0.7 3.0 -

*figures in crores; calculations on ttm basis Companies not truly comparable due to product dissimilarity

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Financials

Quarterly Results -Standalone Figures in Rs crs

Q3FY16 Q3FY15 % chg. 9MFY16 9MFY15 % chg.

Income from operations 678.77 692.24 -1.9 2018.29 2193.17 -8.0

Other Income 0.87 1.23 -29.3 1.53 1.62 -5.6

Total Income 679.64 693.47 -2.0 2019.82 2194.79 -8.0

Total Expenditure 548.79 589.25 -6.9 1624.90 1855.23 -12.4

PBIDT (other income included) 130.85 104.22 25.6 394.92 339.56 16.3

Interest 27.62 31.61 -12.6 87.56 105.48 -17.0

Depreciation 22.94 19.97 14.9 67.26 57.79 16.4

PBT 80.29 52.64 52.5 240.10 176.29 36.2

Tax 19.57 9.75 100.7 57.27 41.25 38.8

PAT 60.72 42.89 41.6 182.83 135.04 35.4

Extraordinary Item - - - - - -

Adjusted Net Profit 60.72 42.89 41.6 182.83 135.04 35.4

EPS (F.V. 5) 7.29 4.84 50.5 21.94 15.24 44.0

Segment Results Figures in Rs crs

Q3FY16 Q3FY15 % chg. 9MFY16 9MFY15 % chg.

Segment Revenue

Speciality Chemicals 556.10 567.70 -2.0 1659.79 1806.80 -8.1

Pharmaceuticals 88.66 74.80 18.5 263.30 221.45 18.9

Home & Personal Care Chemicals 34.01 49.74 -31.6 95.20 164.92 -42.3

Total 678.77 692.24 -1.9 2018.29 2193.17 -8.0

Segment EBIT

Speciality Chemicals 116.67 88.19 32.3 348.38 290.02 20.1

Pharmaceuticals 9.75 8.79 10.9 24.79 27.51 -9.9

Home & Personal Care Chemicals -1.59 -0.92 72.8 0.19 2.38 -92.0

Total 124.83 96.06 30.0 373.36 319.91 16.7

Interest 27.62 31.61 -12.6 87.56 105.48 -17.0

Other Unallocable Exp. (net of income) 16.92 11.81 43.3 45.70 38.14 19.8

PBT 80.29 52.64 52.5 240.10 176.29 36.2

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Financials

Income Statement - Consolidated Figures in Rs crs

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

Income from operations 2096.25 2632.49 2907.96 2727.38 3307.60

Growth (%) 25.3 25.6 10.5 -6.2 21.3

Other Income 3.76 10.97 9.01 2.17 2.17

Total Income 2100.01 2643.46 2916.97 2729.55 3309.77

Total Expenditure 1735.05 2231.01 2442.28 2193.28 2689.82

EBITDA (other income included) 364.96 412.45 474.70 536.27 619.96

Interest 95.37 117.84 137.97 115.34 120.20

EBDT 269.59 294.61 336.73 420.93 499.76

Depreciation 82.84 88.52 81.98 93.68 114.11

Tax 53.75 54.03 61.03 78.87 92.55

Net profit 133.00 152.06 193.72 248.38 293.09

Minority interest 1.00 0.51 1.74 1.25 1.25

Profit/loss of associate 2.41 10.88 13.90 14.60 15.32

Net profit after MI 134.41 162.43 205.88 261.73 307.16

Extraordinary item 0.36 6.92 5.37 - -

Adjusted Net Profit 134.05 155.51 200.50 261.73 307.16

EPS (Rs.) 16.94 17.55 22.63 31.41 36.87

Segment Results Figures in Rs crs


Segment Revenue

Speciality Chemicals 1757.79 2216.67 2397.96 2236.37 2736.43

Pharmaceuticals 186.84 248.98 303.20 360.81 414.93

Home & Personal Care Chemicals 151.62 166.84 206.80 130.20 156.24

Income from ops. 2096.25 2632.49 2907.96 2727.38 3307.60

Segment EBIT

Speciality Chemicals 318.95 332.62 408.09 460.69 519.92

Pharmaceuticals 9.45 29.75 35.81 35.03 45.64

Home & Personal Care Chemicals 5.03 4.11 3.27 -1.31 3.12

Sub Total 333.43 366.48 447.17 494.41 568.69

Interest 95.37 117.84 137.97 115.34 120.20

Other Unallocable Exp. (net of income) 51.30 42.55 54.45 51.82 62.84

PBT 186.76 206.09 254.75 327.25 385.64

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Consolidated Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crs


SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 39.56 44.30 44.30 41.66 41.66

Reserves 716.70 826.46 972.11 1161.23 1395.79

Total Shareholders Funds 756.26 870.76 1016.40 1202.89 1437.45

Minority Interest 4.26 4.26 5.86 7.11 8.36

Long term debt 117.27 255.25 419.06 409.06 424.06

Total Liabilities 877.79 1130.27 1441.33 1619.06 1869.87

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 1236.79 1477.03 1685.10 2010.10 2400.10

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 563.14 650.80 718.16 811.85 925.96

Net Block 673.65 826.23 966.94 1198.25 1474.14

Capital Work in Progress 68.69 117.44 192.97 185.00 95.00

Investments 95.42 117.24 139.20 153.79 169.12

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventory 462.15 606.12 551.73 557.25 612.97

Sundry Debtors 429.01 443.21 438.98 456.54 483.94

Cash and Bank 12.42 14.85 33.71 22.32 47.94

Other Assets 116.01 160.66 173.24 173.81 191.28

Total CA & LA 1019.59 1224.84 1197.67 1209.92 1336.13

Current liabilities 978.86 1157.41 1053.76 1100.29 1151.57

Provisions 27.71 29.90 34.05 37.74 38.51

Total Current Liabilities 1006.57 1187.31 1087.81 1138.03 1190.07

Net Current Assets 13.02 37.53 109.86 71.89 146.06

Net Deferred Tax (net of liability) -70.89 -84.66 -102.66 -122.61 -145.48

Other Assets (Net of liabilities) 97.89 116.49 135.02 132.73 131.04

Total Assets 877.79 1130.27 1441.33 1619.06 1869.87

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Cash Flow Statement Figures in Rs crs


Net Income (a) 133.00 152.06 193.72 248.38 293.09

Non cash exp. & others (b) 97.61 92.05 95.14 109.73 135.73

Depreciation 82.84 88.52 81.98 93.68 114.11

Profit / loss on sale of assets / inv 0.50 -9.38 -3.58 - -

Dividend income -0.63 -0.56 -1.01 -1.01 -1.01

Lease income -0.36 -0.30 -0.24 -0.24 -0.24

Deferred tax & others 15.27 13.77 18.00 17.30 22.88

(Increase) / decrease in NWC (c) -90.03 -90.34 -77.99 39.10 -51.85

Inventory -82.82 -143.97 54.39 -5.52 -55.72

Debtors -22.03 -14.20 4.23 -17.56 -27.39

Other assets & liabilities 14.83 67.83 -136.61 62.17 31.27

Operating cash flow (a+b+c) 140.59 153.78 210.86 397.21 376.97

Capex -231.39 -287.85 -294.69 -317.03 -300.00

Associate & other investments 0.97 -3.83 -4.24 - -

Dividend income 0.63 0.56 1.01 1.01 1.01

Lease income 0.36 0.30 0.24 0.24 0.24

Investing cash flow (d) -229.42 -290.83 -297.68 -315.78 -298.75

Net borrowings 127.08 189.99 163.32 -23.19 20.00

Dividends & others -36.38 -50.52 -57.64 -69.64 -72.61

Financing cash flow (e) 90.70 139.48 105.68 -92.82 -52.61

Net change (a+b+c+d+e) 1.86 2.43 18.86 -11.39 25.62

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Key Financial Ratios


Growth Ratios

Revenue (%) 25.3 25.6 10.5 -6.2 21.3

EBIDTA (%) 45.5 10.6 16.0 14.7 15.6

Net Profit (%) 32.1 16.0 28.9 30.5 17.4

EPS (%) 32.1 3.6 28.9 38.8 17.4

Margins

Operating Profit Margin (%) 17.2 15.3 16.0 19.6 18.7

Gross Profit Margin (%) 12.8 10.8 11.3 15.4 15.1

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.3 5.5 6.5 9.1 8.9

Return

ROCE (%) 14.3 13.6 14.7 15.0 15.7

RONW (%) 19.9 19.1 21.2 23.6 23.3

Valuations

Market Cap / Sales 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.1

EV/EBIDTA 4.1 5.2 9.2 9.1 7.9

P/E 4.8 7.0 15.6 14.2 12.1

P/BV 0.9 1.2 3.1 3.1 2.6

Other Ratios

Interest Coverage 3.0 2.7 2.8 3.8 4.2

Debt-Equity Ratio 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8

Current Ratio 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1

Turnover Ratios

Fixed Asset Turnover 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.5 2.5

Total Asset Turnover 2.7 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.9

Debtors Turnover 5.0 6.0 6.6 6.1 7.0

Inventory Turnover 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.6

Creditors Turnover 8.6 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.1

WC Ratios

Debtor Days 72.8 60.5 55.4 59.9 51.9

Inventory Days 82.9 87.4 86.5 92.3 79.4

Creditor Days 42.6 48.8 46.2 46.4 45.0

Cash Conversion Cycle 113.1 99.1 95.7 105.8 86.3

Cash Flows (Rs crs)

Operating Cash Flow 140.6 153.8 210.9 397.2 377.0

FCFF -18.3 -44.8 20.9 167.9 168.4

FCFE 37.3 56.8 80.7 58.2 98.2

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Financial Summary – US dollar denominated

million $ FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

Equity capital 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.1 6.1

Shareholders funds 139.0 144.9 162.4 175.4 209.6

Total debt 156.1 172.9 192.1 171.9 174.8

Net fixed assets (incl CWIP) 136.5 157.0 185.3 201.7 228.8

Investments 17.5 19.5 22.2 22.4 24.7

Net current assets 2.4 6.2 17.6 10.5 21.3

Total assets 161.4 188.1 230.3 236.0 272.6

Revenues 385.0 435.2 475.6 397.6 482.2

EBITDA 66.9 66.6 76.5 78.2 90.4

EBDT 49.4 47.1 53.9 61.4 72.9

PBT 34.2 32.5 40.5 47.7 56.2

Profit after MI & associate profit 24.6 25.7 32.8 38.2 44.8

EPS($) 0.31 0.29 0.37 0.46 0.54

Book value ($) 1.76 1.64 1.83 2.10 2.52

Operating cash flow 25.8 25.6 33.7 57.9 55.0

Investing cash flow -42.2 -48.4 -47.6 -46.0 -43.6

Financing cash flow 16.7 23.2 16.9 -13.5 -7.7

income statement figures translated at average rates; balance sheet and cash flow at year end rates; projections at current rates All dollar denominated figures are adjusted for extraordinary items.

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