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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd May 18, 2017 Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance . Atul Ltd No. of shares (m) 29.66 Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 7614/1189.2 Current price (Rs/$) 2567/40.1 Price target (Rs/$) 3033/47.4 52 W H/L (Rs.) 2585/1795 Book Value (Rs/$) 643/10.0 Beta 1.1 Daily volume (avg. monthly) 31420 P/BV (FY18e/19e) 3.4/2.8 EV/EBITDA (FY18e/19e) 11.6/10.2 P/E (FY18e/19e) 20.3/17.8 EPS growth (FY17/18e/19e) 17.6/15.7/14.5 OPM (FY17/18e/19e) 18.0/18.6/18.9 ROE (FY17/18e/19e) 18.6/17.9/17.3 ROCE(FY17/18e/19e) 16.9/17.1/16.9 D/E ratio (FY17/18e/19e) 0.1/0.0/0.0 BSE Code 500027 NSE Code ATUL Bloomberg ATLP IN Reuters ATLP.BO Shareholding pattern % Promoters 44.5 MFs / Banks / FIs 20.5 FPIs 6.1 Govt. Holding 0.0 Public & Others 28.9 Total 100.0 As on Mar 31, 2017 Recommendation ACCUMULATE Analyst KISHAN GUPTA, CFA, FRM Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0043 E- mail: [email protected] (Figures in Rs crs) FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e Income from operations 2594.59 2833.94 3101.02 3445.64 Other Income 34.40 52.55 57.67 66.75 EBITDA (other income included) 493.63 562.00 635.58 717.91 Profit after associate profit & EO 274.91 323.35 374.22 428.43 EPS(Rs) 92.69 109.02 126.16 144.44 EPS growth (%) 21.6 17.6 15.7 14.5 Quarterly Highlights Swayed by over 29% growth in LSC revenues, Atul's income from operations surged by 14.9% in Q4, while OPMs plunged 400 bps to 14.1% due to margin stress in both LSC and POC businesses - EBIT margins (on gross sales) of the former dreadfully slumped to 12.9% from 20.9% in the same quarter a year ago; that of latter by 140 bps to 12.1% ( q-o-q fall of 230 bps). If it were not for the lower interest expense (-55.8%) and higher other income (more than doubled to Rs 23.09 crs/$3.4m), earnings post tax would have declined much sharply from reported 2.9%. Sustenance of momentum in sales volumes in H2 from the first two quarters (Q1: 19%; Q2: 15%) helped Atul report 16% growth in volumes - a six year high - for the fiscal. Exports save the blushes for its revenues advanced by 16% while revenues in domestic market grew by a measly 3%. To make up for the torpidity of LSC segment - its EBIT (standalone) slid 19.6% last fiscal - POC segment chipped in to post 9.7% growth in revenues and 16.4% in EBIT. Much of the benefits of volume gains in its crop protection business (22%) were lost by sharp fall in product realizations (-14%). Hefty growth in volume was observed in its polymers (18%) and bulk chemicals businesses (32%) last fiscal. Improved showing of its subsidiaries and associates - most notably Atul Bioscience, DPD, Amal - explain the remarkable growth in consolidated earnings (17.9%). OPMs increased 30 bps to 18% when sales rose by 9.2% - the fastest pace in three years; pbt of Amal grew fivefold to Rs 10 crs; that of Atul Bioscience from Rs 8 crs to Rs 12 crs. Akzo Nobel and Atul JV for production of monochloroacetic acid (MCA) in India would commence operations by first quarter of 2019 at Atul’s facility in Gujarat for supplies to both Atul and other Indian players. From an initial annual capacity of 32000 tons p.a, the project would enable capacity expansion to 60000 tons p.a. The stock currently trades at 20.3x FY18e EPS of Rs 126.16 and 17.8x FY19e EPS of Rs 144.44. Input price volatility - instigated by crude oil prices - and sickly competition in its fragile crop protection and colors business, pose threat to margins. Spurred by incremental sales potential of Rs 425 crs ($66.4m) from past capex, earnings would advance by at least 15% on average over the next two years. Undeniably, stock valuation would get support from the company projected to become debt-free by FY19. Weighing odds, we reckon the stock merits an accumulate rating with revised target of Rs 3033 (previous target: Rs 2530) based on 21x FY19e earnings.
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Page 1: CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd - Business Standardbsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2017-05-19 · 3 3 CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution

CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd May 18, 2017

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

.

Atul Ltd

No. of shares (m) 29.66

Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 7614/1189.2

Current price (Rs/$) 2567/40.1

Price target (Rs/$)

3033/47.4

52 W H/L (Rs.) 2585/1795

Book Value (Rs/$) 643/10.0

Beta 1.1

Daily volume (avg. monthly) 31420

P/BV (FY18e/19e) 3.4/2.8

EV/EBITDA (FY18e/19e) 11.6/10.2

P/E (FY18e/19e) 20.3/17.8

EPS growth (FY17/18e/19e) 17.6/15.7/14.5

OPM (FY17/18e/19e) 18.0/18.6/18.9

ROE (FY17/18e/19e) 18.6/17.9/17.3

ROCE(FY17/18e/19e) 16.9/17.1/16.9

D/E ratio (FY17/18e/19e) 0.1/0.0/0.0

BSE Code 500027

NSE Code ATUL

Bloomberg ATLP IN

Reuters ATLP.BO

Shareholding pattern %

Promoters 44.5

MFs / Banks / FIs 20.5

FPIs 6.1

Govt. Holding 0.0

Public & Others 28.9

Total 100.0

As on Mar 31, 2017

Recommendation

ACCUMULATE

Analyst

KISHAN GUPTA, CFA, FRM

Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0043

E- mail: [email protected]

(Figures in Rs crs)

FY16

FY17 FY18e

FY19e

Income from operations 2594.59 2833.94 3101.02 3445.64

Other Income 34.40 52.55 57.67 66.75

EBITDA (other income included) 493.63 562.00 635.58 717.91

Profit after associate profit & EO 274.91 323.35 374.22 428.43

EPS(Rs) 92.69 109.02 126.16 144.44

EPS growth (%) 21.6 17.6 15.7 14.5

Quarterly Highlights � Swayed by over 29% growth in LSC revenues, Atul's income from operations

surged by 14.9% in Q4, while OPMs plunged 400 bps to 14.1% due to margin

stress in both LSC and POC businesses - EBIT margins (on gross sales) of the

former dreadfully slumped to 12.9% from 20.9% in the same quarter a year

ago; that of latter by 140 bps to 12.1% ( q-o-q fall of 230 bps). If it were not for

the lower interest expense (-55.8%) and higher other income (more than

doubled to Rs 23.09 crs/$3.4m), earnings post tax would have declined much

sharply from reported 2.9%.

� Sustenance of momentum in sales volumes in H2 from the first two quarters

(Q1: 19%; Q2: 15%) helped Atul report 16% growth in volumes - a six year

high - for the fiscal. Exports save the blushes for its revenues advanced by

16% while revenues in domestic market grew by a measly 3%. To make up

for the torpidity of LSC segment - its EBIT (standalone) slid 19.6% last fiscal -

POC segment chipped in to post 9.7% growth in revenues and 16.4% in EBIT.

Much of the benefits of volume gains in its crop protection business (22%)

were lost by sharp fall in product realizations (-14%). Hefty growth in

volume was observed in its polymers (18%) and bulk chemicals businesses

(32%) last fiscal.

� Improved showing of its subsidiaries and associates - most notably Atul

Bioscience, DPD, Amal - explain the remarkable growth in consolidated

earnings (17.9%). OPMs increased 30 bps to 18% when sales rose by 9.2% -

the fastest pace in three years; pbt of Amal grew fivefold to Rs 10 crs; that of

Atul Bioscience from Rs 8 crs to Rs 12 crs.

� Akzo Nobel and Atul JV for production of monochloroacetic acid (MCA) in

India would commence operations by first quarter of 2019 at Atul’s facility in

Gujarat for supplies to both Atul and other Indian players. From an initial

annual capacity of 32000 tons p.a, the project would enable capacity

expansion to 60000 tons p.a.

� The stock currently trades at 20.3x FY18e EPS of Rs 126.16 and 17.8x FY19e

EPS of Rs 144.44. Input price volatility - instigated by crude oil prices - and

sickly competition in its fragile crop protection and colors business, pose

threat to margins. Spurred by incremental sales potential of Rs 425 crs

($66.4m) from past capex, earnings would advance by at least 15% on

average over the next two years. Undeniably, stock valuation would get

support from the company projected to become debt-free by FY19. Weighing

odds, we reckon the stock merits an accumulate rating with revised target of

Rs 3033 (previous target: Rs 2530) based on 21x FY19e earnings.

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Outlook & Recommendation

Global specialty chemicals - GMI & IHS update Increasing global population coupled with rapid industrialization would result in reduced arable land globally, which would

stoke demand for specialty chemicals, reckons Global Market Insights, Inc. It expects the global specialty chemicals market size to

exceed $1200 bn by 2024 - projected CAGR of 4.5%. Demand for higher crop yields would propel demand for agrochemicals such

as fungicides; governments across the globe are already promoting agrochemicals to secured food supplies for their burgeoning

populations. GMI posits that robust growth in end user industries such as construction and automotive would expand the

specialty chemicals market by 2024; rising demand for lubricants to reduce friction in vehicles will undoubtedly enhance growth.

Principal growth drivers would be construction chemicals ($70 bn market in 2015) and electronics chemicals. The market size of

the former - used for increased shelf life of the building - will get a leg up from growing construction industry, particularly in

China, India, Japan and Brazil. Gains of more than 4.5% CAGR for electronics chemicals market is based on the premise that these

chemicals would find widespread applications in electronic apparatuses including integrated circuits and semiconductors and

smart phone customer base would continue to expand. Food additives specialty chemicals - used mainly for food nutrient

content - would find favour thanks to increasing living standards followed by rising consumers disposable income.

Source: GMI Source: IHS

For North America, increasing demand for lubricants and oil field chemicals - owing to increasing oil exploration - has

galvanized regional growth. High construction activity in China, India and Japan and high per capita disposable income in Asia -

Pacific region would help the region to grow at 6.5% CAGR over the projected period, reckons GMI.

Yet risks abound. Market growth of specialty chemicals may stumble over the forecast timeframe thanks to imposition of various

environmental regulations on the synthetic chemicals usage. For instance, the European Union has banned atrazine and

acetochlor herbicides; France and Denmark banned glyphosate for usage in lawns and gardens in 2015.Media digitalization risks

hindering demand for paper chemicals as traditional marketing products such as catalogues and pamphlets are experiencing

subdued demand due to digitalization of promotional activities across the Internet.

IHS Markit believes that global consumption of specialty chemicals is expected to increase at 3.5% CAGR (volumes during 2015-

20) with consumption in North America, Western Europe, and Japan combined growly more slowly, at about 2% per year, while

China would report the highest growth. It believes that with trade liberalization, removal of economic barriers, rise of new

industrialized Asian economies and rising standards of living in many developing economies, the center of gravity of the global

chemical industry is shifting toward the Middle East, where cheap petrochemical feedstocks are available, and Asia, where labor

costs remain relatively low and economic growth is high. With these shifts in global economics, Chinese and Indian

manufacturers have emerged as key players in several specialty chemical markets. To foster innovation, Chinese companies are

shifting away from export focus to meet growing domestic needs for higher-value, downstream products.

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Financials & valuation

After having invested over Rs 700 crs in several projects last three years across businesses - be it aromatics, colors, polymers

or pharmaceuticals - Aul now boasts of incremental sales potential (unrealized) of Rs 425 crs (15% of FY17 consolidated

turnover) from the past capex in bulk chemicals, additives, intermediates and specialty chemicals. In bulk chemicals

business, plans are afoot to boost capacity utilization of its new caustic chlorine plant - subject to external demand - and

launch chlorine derivative products. Sensing increased demand for its polymers, higher capacities are planned for specialty

resins, suplhone intermediates and other upstream/downstream products. For aromatics, building capacities for fragrance

intermediate and downstream and launching new products from its newly established kilo lab facility are also on agenda.

Widening gap of its most flourishing polymers business revenues with that of others in last few years - reflected in awe-

inspiring surge in volumes (18% in FY17) - has prompted it to boost sale of high margin products and partially convert

epoxy products capacity from commodity to specialty. Despite rapid slowdown in major crop yields and ever growing

demand for major crops, Atul's commodity natured crop protection business has often failed to capitalize on rapid volume

growth. Expanding brand business to developing new formulation mixtures to boosting secondary sales (trading) are being

planned to rev up this flagging business. Partially hit by demonetization, colors business revenues all but flat lined (though

volumes increased 7%) not least due to dependence consumer oriented textile sector. Prophesying rapid recovery in colors is

not devoid of big risk due to prevailing stress in demand for textile chemicals, though Atul targets to circumvent it by

market share of existing products - VAT dyes, sulphur dyes, AQ disperse dyes - and commercializing high performance

pigments.

Thanks to margin enriching measures in polymers and color businesses, its POC segment margins would gradually move

up over the next two years - thus cementing its EBIT share at two-thirds. Yet grave uncertainty over crude oil supplies by

producer nations would cap finished product realizations, roiling its asset turnover ratios; Atul displayed over 10% price

(average) decline in in its crop protection business last fiscal; 4% in colors; 7% in polymers. Modest expansion plans (not

over Rs 300 crs /$46.9m annually) would free up cash flows for debt retirement and Akzo Nobel project. Perceptible increase

in debtors’ last fiscal due to demonetization induced stress in its colors and crop protection businesses would presumably be

fleeting in nature.

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The stock currently trades at 20.3x FY18e EPS of Rs 126.16 and 17.8x FY19e EPS of Rs 144.44. Notwithstanding nearly

unsurpassable business opportunity in global specialty chemicals industry, risks in form of crude oil price volatility, Chinese

competition (mainly for crop protection and aromatics businesses), lengthy qualification process and forex fluctuations

cannot be discredited. Underplaying regulatory contingencies - like Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) notice to close

the Tarapur plant would not be pragmatic either. Yet its diversified product offerings unquestionably help quell impact of

conceivable risks. Tie up with Akzo Nobel for MCA production in India would help it tap vast domestic market potential,

besides meeting its captive demand. On balance, we retain our accumulate rating on the stock with revised target of Rs 3033

(previous target: Rs 2530) based on 21x FY19e earnings over a period of 6-9 months. For more info refer to our December

report.

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Cross Sectional Analysis

Company Equity* CMP Mcap* IO Profit* OPM NPM Int.

coverage ROE Mcap / IO P/BV P/E

Aarti Inds. 41 932 7653 2766 302 21.4 10.9 4.3 26.7 2.8 6.2 25.3

Atul Ltd 30 2567 7614 2834 323 18.0 11.2 18.5 18.6 2.7 4.0 23.5

Deepak Nitrite 26 144 1886 1360 44 10.2 3.2 2.9 7.3 1.4 2.6 38.8

Sudarshan Chem 14 395 2738 1277 92 14.2 7.2 6.0 25.4 2.1 6.9 29.7 *figures in crores; calculations on ttm basis; **adjusted for market value of marketable securities ROE of IC adjusted for revaluation reserves; book value adjusted for goodwill & revaluation reserves wherever applicable

DNL is harping on substituting nearly 60% of India's then existing demand for phenol and acetone in 2017-18, when it will

commission its 2 lakh tpa phenol plant and 1.2 lakh tpa acetone plant in Dahej, Gujarat. The project will also be supported by 2.6 lakh

tpa of cumene, which is a feedstock for manufacturing phenol ad acetone. Affected by one off events – fire at Roha and temporary

shutdown of the DASDA unit post Telangana State Pollution Control Board order - exports slid 10.7% last fiscal. It would strive to

boost revenue share of pharma and personal care intermediates next fiscal, besides increasing market share of agrochemicals in

export markets; indeed it has set up small facilities for backward integration of some agro-chemical products and pharma

intermediates which will commence in current fiscal. Subdued volumes of OBA (overall volumes declined 5%) coupled with

temporary shutdown of the DASDA plant helped widened loss last fiscal. Underpinned by enhanced pharma and personal care

intermediates business, EBIT margin in the most revered FSC segment would rise to over 26% next fiscal from 23.7% in FY17.

Resurrection in Sudarshan's pigment business in last few quarters helped it churn out record profits in FY16. Despite pronounced

slowdown in pigments dispatches in Q3 (all thanks to demonetization which impacted off take from paint industry and some of the

distributors in EVA and rubber industries), total profit so far this fiscal has almost equaled that of FY16. Pigment margins

consequently plunged to 11.5% in Q3 from a peak of 19.8% in Q1. It's facing demand stress in Middle East and in some of the African

nations like Egypt and Nigeria. The company recently finished the first phase (Rs 150 crs) of its Rs 1000 crs brownfield capex at Roha,

of which Rs 35 crs was channelized in a cogen plant.

Supported by its product pricing model (fixed absolute margins per kg), Aarti Industries has milked the most from incessant drop in

crude prices for its specialty chemicals margins (standalone) jumped by ~500 bps in FY16 and neared 22% (+2.4% yoy). Yet slowdown

in agro-chemicals sector has hit it volumes growth - 7% in 9MFY17 from 10% in FY16. Yet it has been most steadfast in ramping up

capacities for it has spent a total of Rs 1295 crs ($212.m) in four years ending FY16 and plans an annual outlay of Rs 400-450 crs

($60m-$67.5m) over the next three years. In FY17 it commenced commercial production of its Ethylation unit at Dahej SEZ, Gujarat

and second phase of PDA facility in Jhagadia; next fiscal it would start its chlorination unit in Jhagadia.

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Financials

Standalone Quarterly Results Figures in Rs crs

Q4FY17 Q4FY16 % chg. FY17 FY16 % chg.

Income from operations 719.57 624.77 15.2 2694.53 2454.50 9.8

Other Income 23.09 11.08 108.4 42.46 46.20 -8.1

Total Income 742.66 635.85 16.8 2736.99 2500.70 9.4

Total Expenditure 618.19 511.48 20.9 2224.33 2012.74 10.5

PBIDT (other income included) 124.47 124.37 0.1 512.66 487.96 5.1

Interest 2.91 6.58 -55.8 21.02 25.84 -18.7

Depreciation 24.93 17.16 45.3 91.12 61.92 47.2

PBT 96.63 100.63 -4.0 400.52 400.2 0.1

Tax 32.77 34.87 -6.0 115.22 125.75 -8.4

PAT 63.86 65.76 -2.9 285.30 274.45 4.0

Extraordinary Item - - - 0.00 1.14 -100.0

Adjusted Net Profit 63.86 65.76 -2.9 285.30 273.31 4.4 EPS (F.V. 10) 21.53 22.17 -2.9 96.18 92.14 4.4

Segment Results Figures in Rs crs

Q4FY17 Q4FY16 % chg. FY17 FY16 % chg.

Segment Revenue

Life Science Chemicals 237.77 184.28 29.0 865.00 800.45 8.1

Performance & Other Chemicals 565.01 504.90 11.9 2155.95 1945.98 10.8

Sub Total 802.78 689.18 16.5 3020.95 2746.43 10.0

Inter - Segment Revenue 44.16 29.00 52.3 172.68 137.82 25.3

Income from ops. (gross) 758.62 660.18 14.9 2848.27 2608.61 9.2

Segment EBIT

Life Science Chemicals 30.58 38.00 -19.5 129.59 161.22 -19.6

Performance & Other Chemicals 62.98 64.20 -1.9 290.12 249.18 16.4

Sub Total 93.56 102.20 -8.5 419.71 410.40 2.3

Interest 2.91 6.58 -55.8 21.02 25.84 -18.7

Other Unallocable Exp. (net of income) -5.98 -5.01 19.4 -1.83 -15.64 -88.3

PBT 96.63 100.63 -4.0 400.52 400.20 0.1

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Consolidated Income Statement Figures in Rs crs

FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e

Income from operations 2594.59 2833.94 3101.02 3445.64

Growth (%) -2.3 9.2 9.4 11.1

Other Income 34.40 52.55 57.67 66.75

Total Income 2628.99 2886.49 3158.69 3512.39

Total Expenditure 2135.36 2324.49 2523.12 2794.48

EBITDA (other income included) 493.63 562.00 635.58 717.91

Interest 27.53 25.17 10.94 2.52

EBDT 466.10 536.83 624.64 715.39

Depreciation 66.07 95.44 112.04 128.24

Tax 130.22 122.71 143.53 164.40

Net profit 269.81 318.68 369.07 422.75

Profit/loss of associate & others 4.46 4.67 5.15 5.69

Net profit after MI 274.27 323.35 374.22 428.43

Extraordinary item -0.64 - - -

Adjusted Net Profit 274.91 323.35 374.22 428.43

EPS (Rs.) 92.69 109.02 126.16 144.44

Segment Results Figures in Rs crs

FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e

Segment Revenue

Life Science Chemicals 893.32 924.82 1016.04 1129.55

Performance & Other Chemicals* 1858.22 2067.31 2261.35 2512.30

Others 3.47 3.92 4.12 4.32

Income from ops. (gross) 2755.01 2996.05 3281.51 3646.18

Segment EBIT

Life Science Chemicals 171.91 154.43 172.73 194.85

Performance & Other Chemicals 248.48 303.42 341.46 384.38

Others 0.11 -0.92 -0.50 -0.50

Sub Total 420.50 456.93 513.69 578.73

Interest 27.53 25.17 10.94 2.52

Other Unallocable Exp. (net of income) -7.06 -9.63 -9.84 -10.94

PBT 400.03 441.39 512.60 587.15

*adjusted for inter-segment revenues

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Consolidated Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crs

FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 29.68 29.68 29.68 29.68

Reserves 1585.11 1936.26 2300.10 2728.53

Total Shareholders Funds 1614.79 1965.94 2329.78 2758.22

Minority Interest 2.45 15.25 15.25 15.25

Long term debt 23.35 0.38 - -

Total Liabilities 1640.59 1981.57 2345.03 2773.47

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 1595.68 1963.58 2263.58 2563.58

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 813.63 909.07 1021.11 1149.36

Impairment 21.03 21.03 21.03 21.03

Net Block 761.02 1033.48 1221.44 1393.19

Capital Work in Progress 180.44 58.99 75.00 75.00

Investments 378.70 428.13 472.90 553.59

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventory 427.78 430.06 440.81 451.83

Sundry Debtors 441.39 518.96 477.44 491.77

Cash and Bank 22.01 28.30 50.27 157.06

Other Assets 165.48 149.53 163.33 179.36

Total CA & LA 1056.66 1126.85 1131.86 1280.02

Current liabilities 698.67 578.00 454.08 410.32

Provisions 7.53 9.60 9.30 10.34

Total Current Liabilities 706.20 587.60 463.38 420.65

Net Current Assets 350.46 539.25 668.48 859.37

Net Deferred Tax -65.81 -101.42 -120.38 -138.38

Other Assets (Net of liabilities) 35.78 23.14 27.60 30.70

Total Assets 1640.59 1981.57 2345.03 2773.47

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Key Financial Ratios

FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e

Growth Ratios

Revenue (%) -2.3 9.2 9.4 11.1

EBIDTA (%) 20.1 13.9 13.1 13.0

Net Profit (%) 21.6 17.6 15.7 14.5

EPS (%) 21.6 17.6 15.7 14.5

Margins

Operating Profit Margin (%) 17.7 18.0 18.6 18.9

Gross Profit Margin (%) 18.0 18.9 20.1 20.8

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.4 11.2 11.9 12.3

Return

ROCE (%) 16.2 16.9 17.1 16.9

ROE (%) 18.7 18.6 17.9 17.3

Valuations

Market Cap / Sales 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.2

EV/EBIDTA 9.2 12.1 11.6 10.2

P/E 16.6 21.8 20.3 17.8

P/BV 2.9 3.7 3.4 2.8

Other Ratios

Interest Coverage 15.5 18.5 47.9 234.1

Debt-Equity Ratio 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0

Current Ratio 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.8

Turnover Ratios

Fixed Asset Turnover 4.1 3.2 2.8 2.7

Total Asset Turnover 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4

Debtors Turnover 5.9 5.9 6.2 7.1

Inventory Turnover 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.3

Creditors Turnover 7.3 7.1 7.6 8.4

WC Ratios

Debtor Days 62.2 61.8 58.6 51.3

Inventory Days 72.1 67.4 63.0 58.3

Creditor Days 50.2 51.2 48.3 43.6

Cash Conversion Cycle 84.0 78.0 73.3 66.0

note: market value of marketable securities considered in calculations of EV; ROE; ROCE and turnover ratios

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Cumulative Financial Data Figures in Rs crs FY08-10 FY11-13 FY14-16 FY17-19e

Income from operations 3482 5391 7709 9381

Operating profit 310 630 1226 1739

EBIT 260 544 1100 1580

PBT 160 441 1013 1541

PAT after EO 127 292 700 1126

Dividends 35 52 93 120

OPM (%) 8.9 11.7 15.9 18.5

GPM (%) 7.4 10.7 15.5 20.0

NPM (%) 3.7 5.6 9.0 11.8

Interest coverage 2.6 5.3 12.7 40.9

ROE (%) 10.3 15.3 19.7 17.6

ROCE (%) 9.4 12.8 16.6 16.5

Debt-equity ratio* 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0

Fixed asset turnover 4.3 5.2 4.4 2.9

Total asset turnover 1.5 2.1 2.0 1.5

Debtors turnover 4.6 5.8 6.5 6.7

Inventory turnover 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.8

Creditors turnover 4.5 5.6 7.1 7.8

Debtors days 78.7 62.5 56.3 54.5

Inventory days 72.8 68.1 67.1 63.0

Creditor days 81.1 65.2 51.2 46.7

Cash conversion cycle 70.4 65.4 72.2 70.7

Dividend payout ratio (%) 27.0 16.6 13.0 10.8 FY07-09 implies three years ending fiscal 09; *as on terminal year

Relentless fall in crude oil prices wrecked sales momentum for most chemical manufacturers - Atul is no exception - in last few

years. Even covetous volume growth of 16% (standalone) last fiscal failed to lift Atul's revenues by over 10% (y-o-y).

Unyielding expansion in margins - OPMs to rise to 18.5% in FY17-19e period from 15.9% in the previous three year period and

merely 8.9% in FY08-10 period - to be accounted by revered POC segment's ceaseless focus on value addition in its colors,

aromatic and polymers businesses would struggle to conspicuously boost operating profit growth - 41.8% in FY17-19e period

compared to 94.5% in FY14-16 period. In last few years its greatest earning generator POC segment has helped ward off blood

curdling volatility in its more sober LSC segment – the former’s EBIT has grown 5x in last six years compared to 2.6x for the

latter.

It would channelize its free cash flows in retiring debt - to be debt free by FY19 - which would buttress interest coverage.

Mediocre revenue booking would patently constrict both return on capital and turnover ratios - fixed asset turnover ratio to fall

to 2.9 from 4.4 (see table), while ROE would descend by over 200 bps to 17.6%; ROCE would flat line though. Most of its

internal accruals over the next two years would be invested in fixed assets (annual capex of Rs 300 crs /$46.9m assumed) and

retiring debt, paving little scope for higher dividend payouts - payout ratio to abysmally decline to 10.8% in three year period

ending FY19 from 13% in FY14-16 period and 27% nearly a decade back.

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Financial Summary – US dollar denominated million $ FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e

Equity capital 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6

Shareholders funds** 237.9 293.9 353.9 420.3

Total debt 47.6 26.0 7.9 0.0

Net fixed assets (incl CWIP) 141.9 164.8 198.8 225.6

Investments 57.1 66.0 73.9 86.5

Net current assets 47.3 77.5 98.1 127.4

Total assets** 241.8 296.3 356.3 422.7

Revenues 396.4 422.4 484.4 538.2

EBITDA 75.4 83.8 99.3 112.1

EBDT 71.2 80.0 97.6 111.7

PBT 61.1 65.8 80.1 91.7

PAT 42.0 48.2 58.5 66.9

EPS($) 1.42 1.62 1.97 2.26

Book value ($) 8.0 9.9 11.9 14.2

*income statement figures translated at average rates; balance sheet and cash flow at year end rates; projections at current rates($64.02/$

**adjusted for market value of marketable securities

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Exchange Rates Used- Indicative

Rs/$ FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Average 60.5 61.15 65.46 67.09

Year end 60.1 62.59 66.33 64.84

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current exchange rate. Cumulative dollar figure is the sum of respective yearly dollar value.