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Identifying growth in UK small cap Paul Marriage Prepared for professional advisers only
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Cazenove

Nov 13, 2014

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Page 1: Cazenove

Identifying growth in UK small cap

Paul Marriage

Prepared for professional advisers only

Page 2: Cazenove

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Agenda

• Team

• Performance

• Filtering & idea generation

• Portfolio construction, P3M & market cap split

• Stock characteristics

•The short-term opportunity

• Summary

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Investment team – Fund managers

Paul Marriage, fund manager

Paul Marriage joined Cazenove Capital in 2005. He is a member of the pan-European equity team

and Manager of the Cazenove UK Smaller Companies Fund and Cazenove Capital’s UK Dynamic

long-short funds (UCITS and Cayman domiciled hedge fund); the Cazenove Absolute UK Dynamic

Fund and the Cazenove UK Dynamic Absolute Return Fund. Paul joined from Insight Investment

where he was head of UK Small Cap investments valued at £750 million. Prior to this, he was an

analyst at GH Asset Management. Paul graduated from University College, Oxford with a degree in

Modern History. He is a member of ASIP and has 13 years of investment experience.

John Warren, fund managerJohn Warren joined Cazenove Capital in 2010. He is a member of the pan-European equity team

working with Paul Marriage on the UK small cap desk. John is back up manager on the Cazenove UK

Smaller Companies Fund and the UK equity dynamic short/long funds; the Cazenove Absolute UK

Dynamic Fund (a UCITS fund) and the Cazenove UK Dynamic Absolute Return Fund a Cayman

domiciled hedge fund. John has over 10 years of experience in the UK mid and small cap sector, having

previously been at UBS and Investec Bank. Before this John spent 3 years at PriceWaterhouseCoopers

where he qualified as a Chartered Accountant. John graduated from Loughborough University with a

degree in Economics and Accountancy. He holds the ACA and SFA qualifications.

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1 process – 3 products

Fund sizes at 30.09.11

£385mmanaged

in strategy

Offshore Hedge Fund

£100m

UK Smaller Companies Fund

£85m

Absolute UK

Dynamic Fund £200m

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Source: Lipper, net income reinvested.

Calendar year performance

Page 6: Cazenove

What I do own, what I don’t

X No mining, no oil & gas

X No loss makers

Only UK/UK exposure

Investment universe: Hoare Govett Index including AIM

2,000 stocks

Now 1,000 companies to consider

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Source of stock ideas

Experience Trades

• Know what worksand when

• Met 5,000 co’s in the last 10 years

Execute investment decision within 24 hours

Research – Broker Notes, Annual report, Bloomberg data

Valuation, liquidity, technicals

One to One Meetings – CEO & CFO

Own Idea

• Company meetings

• Visits

• Observational

• Screens

Investment Banks and Brokers

• Ideas

• IPO’s

• Placings

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Portfolio construction

• Target 40-50 stocks (min holding 1%, max 5%)

• 75% core – P3M

• 25% value opportunity

• Define reason for holding – if this changes = sell signal

Stock

B

Stock A

Fund

Stock B

One in, o

ne out

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Creating long term performance

Product a differentiated product, R&D backed, IP preferred

Market market leader in chosen niche

Margin ability to grow the margin and generate cash

Management stock ownership, understanding of shareholder value

P3M

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P3M

Andor Technology

ProductDigital cameras for scientific research

MarketCompany is the tech leader with 10pc share of $400m market

MarginMargins have scope to grow with m/f scale up, company is strong cash generator

ManagementOwn 20% stock, understand shareholder value

Value Opportunity

Hogg Robinson

ValuePurchased in Q3 2010 on fwd p/e of 4.5x

OpportunityPoorly handled 2006 IPO with debt and pension fund issues, unpopular management but a strong market position globally in corporate travel agency

TriggerImprovement in corporate travel evident from other companies – BA, Menzies, BBA

ValidationsProfit upgrades, debt and pension deficit reduction drive rerating (now 7.5x fwd). Share price appreciation of 108% since purchase

Stock examples

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Major holdings

Holding Name Market Cap No. years held Analyst coverage Fwd P/E

Booker £1,114m 5 10 17.6

Staffline £48m 1 5 7.4

Perform Group £467m 1 4 21.1

DS Smith £741m 1 9 8

British Polythene £86m 3 2 6.64

Xaar £154m 5 4 22.8

Elementis £551m 5 8 9.1

Hansteen £471m 3 9 0.85x NAV

Menzies £282m 5 8 6.78

Source: Cazenove Capital Management 07/10/11

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18.6%

17.7%

38.4%

6.4%

18.9%

0-£50m £50-£100m £100-£250m £250-£500m >£500m

Hitting the ‘sweet spot’

Source: Cazenove Capital at 30/09/11

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It’s a small world - percentage of sales

Asia / RoW 13%

Americas 23%

Europe 25%UK 39%

Source: Cazenove Capital at 30/06/11

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The earnings scenario - 2011

Cons

Reality

Sensibly managed SC’s

Long

Short

Earnings Forecasts

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Cazenove Capital Management

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fwd PE ex-loss fwd EPS growth fwd DY ex-nonpay fwd DPS growth

FTSE 100 8.4x 11.4% 4.4% 10.9%

Mid 250 9.7x 16.0% 4.1% 9.3%

Small Cap 7.9x 11.7% 4.4% 6.2%

Is the size, liquidity and efficiency trade being reflected in valuations?

Are earnings growth numbers realistic?

M&A maybe more prevalent going forward.

Source: Altium Securities at 06/10/11

Are UK smaller companies overvalued?

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Regulatory information and risk warnings

This document is intended for Independent Financial Advisers, Professional Intermediaries and non-private clients only.

Issued by Cazenove Capital Management which is the name under which Cazenove Capital Management Limited and Cazenove Investment Fund Management Limited both authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority provide investment products and services.

Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and an investor may not get back the amount originally invested and may be affected by fluctuations in exchange rates. The levels and bases of tax assumptions may change.

This is a specialist fund, which invests in small, less liquid companies. The fund is likely to provide a higher level of volatility and this may carry increased risk.

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to enter into any contract/agreement nor is it a solicitation to buy or sell any investment or to provide any services referred to therein.

This document may include forward-looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements.