Can SMU Switch its Auto Commuters to the Mustang Express Bus Service? PROJECT REPORT Prepared by Professor RAJ SETHURAMAN January 2002.

Can SMU Switch its Auto Commuters to the Mustang Express Bus Service?

PROJECT REPORTPrepared by

Professor RAJ SETHURAMAN

January 2002

TABLE OF CONTENTSTITLE SLIDE NUMBER

Executive Summary 3 - 6

Introduction and Research Objectives

7 – 10

Survey Research Design and Sample Characteristics`

11 - 14

Survey Research Findings 15 - 30

Estimate of Market Potential

31 - 35

Recommendations 36 - 41

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• This research is motivated by the desire for SMU Mustang Express

bus service to increase bus ridership and reduce the number of cars

parked on campus

• The purpose of this study is two-fold : (i) to estimate the number of

auto commuters who would be willing to ride the bus, and (ii) to

identify the steps needed to influence them to ride the bus

• The research findings are based on survey of 654 auto commuters

(Students, Staff, and Faculty)

5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (Contd.)

• It is estimated that approximately 820 auto commuters

would be willing to switch and ride the bus if a

conveniently scheduled bus service is available to them

from their residence.

• However, with the current bus service and a slightly

modified schedule, it is estimated that approximately 230

auto commuters can be switched to riding the bus, if

appropriate steps are taken to attract them.

6

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (Contd.)

• Key recommendations for increasing ridership are:

(i) Target undergraduates and graduates during their first year at SMU.

(ii) Educate community more effectively about bus routes and

schedules.

(iii) Exploit the auto registration database for routing, scheduling, and

direct marketing.

(iv) Advertise the free service and route schedules in prominent places.

INTRODUCTION AND

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

8

RESEARCH BACKGROUND

• SMU started the Mustang Bus Service in 1998.

• It runs two routes : Route 527 and Route 768.

• The objective is to encourage use of public transportation and

discourage bringing cars to campus.

• Ridership so far has been modest with about 300 riders per day.

• SMU believes it has managed to keep 200-300 cars off campus using

its bus service, below their goal of reducing registered cars by 500.

• SMU would therefore like to explore the possibility of developing

proactive strategies for influencing the auto commuters to ride the bus.

9

RESEARCH PURPOSE

• To determine if the members of the SMU community who currently bring their cars to campus can be persuaded to ride the Mustang Express bus service.

• If there is potential demand, to determine steps that need to be taken to increase bus ridership.

• The ultimate goal is to reduce the number of cars parked on campus during weekdays.

10

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

To determine :

1 The time range when auto commuters arrive and leave campus.

2 Their level of satisfaction with SMU parking facilities.

3 The level of awareness of Mustang Express (ME) among auto commuters.

4 The percentage of auto commuters who are aware that ME is free

5 The percentage of auto commuters who are likely to switch to ME.

6 The reasons why commuters are not willing to ride the bus.

7 Some creative ideas that would be appropriate for influencing auto commuters to ride the bus.

SURVEY RESEARCH DESIGN AND SAMPLE CHARACTERISTICS

12

SURVEY RESEARCH

• Paper and Pencil Survey designed to address all the

objectives

• Survey administered by MKTG 3342 (Undergraduate

Marketing Research) students during November 2001.

• Quota Sampling technique was used to ensure adequate

number of undergraduates, graduates, and staff/ faculty in

the sample.

13

SAMPLE CHARACTERISTICS

Total = 654

GENDER

Males = 303 (46%)

Females = 351 (54%)

STATUS

Undergraduates = 399 (61%) Graduates = 137 (21%) Staff / Faculty = 118 (18%)

14

SAMPLE CHARACTERISTICS (CONTD …..)

PLACE OF RESIDENCE

On Campus = 131 (20%)

University Park = 79 (12%)

Highland Park = 33 (5%)

Greenville Area = 79 (12%)

Village = 59 (9%)

Uptown / Oak Lawn = 59 (9%)

Other = 216 (33%)

SURVEY RESEARCH FINDINGS

16

BRINGING THE CAR TO CAMPUS

1-2 days a week10%

3-4 days a week23%

5-7 days a week67%

Figure 1

A majority of commuters bring their cars to campus on all weekdays.

17About 80% of commuters arrive by noon with the majority arriving

between 8 AM - 12 noon

ARRIVAL TIME TO CAMPUS

17%

64%

10%8%

1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Before 8 A.M 8 A.M-12 Noon 12 Noon -4PM 4 PM-8PM After 8PM

Time

Per

cent

age

of r

espo

nden

ts

Figure 2

18

About 80% leave campus between 12 noon and 8 PM, but nearly 20% of commuters leave after 8 PM !

TIME LEAVING THE CAMPUS

0%2%

36%

41%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Before 8AM 8AM-12Noon 12 Noon-4PM 4PM-8PM After 8PM

Time

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

res

po

nd

en

tsFigure 3

19

See next slide for details

Estimated % of registered cars on SMU Campus

17%

77%

83%

55%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Before 8AM 8AM-12Noon 12Noon-4PM 4PM-8PM After 8PM

Time

perc

enta

ge r

egis

tere

dFigure 4

20

% OF CARS ON CAMPUS- CALCULATION

• If a commuter arrives before 8 AM and leaves between 4-8 PM,

he/she is on campus before 8 AM, 8 AM-12 noon, 12 noon-4 PM and

4 PM-8 PM. Data then weighted by number of days they bring car to

campus.

• # of Registered cars = 7,595 (based on report from parking/auxiliary

services).

• A maximum of 83% of the registered cars are on campus between

Noon and 4 PM. This works out to 83% of 7,595 = 6,304 cars.

21

18%

22%

23% 23%

11%

3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%P

erc

en

tag

e

VeryDissatisfied

Dissatisfied SomewhatDissatisfied

SomewhatSatisfied

Satisfied Very Satisfied

Satisfaction Level

PARKING FACILITIES SATISFACTIONFigure 5

Over 60% of commuters are dissatisfied with parking facilities. Presents a potential opportunity for getting them to ride the bus.

22

REASONS FOR DISSATISFACTION WITH PARKING SERVICES

39%

46%

50%

41%

19% 18%

10%

4%

76%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Not enoughspace

Not close towork

Too manyreserved

parking lots

High parkingfees

High parkingfines

Some parkingviolationsresult intowing

Revokingparking

permit after 5violations

Others None of theabove issues

poseproblems

Reasons

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Figure 6

Expectedly, non availability of parking space is the biggest concern. Parking fees is also considered high.

23

AWARENESS OF SMU BUS SERVICE

Yes90%

No10%

Figure 7

Lack of Awareness does not seem to be a reason why ridership is low.

24

11%7%

5%

10%

61%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Advertisement innewspaper

Posters onCampus

Flyers From Friends Saw the bus Others

Source of Awareness

HOW COMMUTERS BECAME AWARE OF MUSTANG BUS SERVICEFigure 8

The big red bus is ubiquitous and advertises itself. All other forms of communication appear to have only a modest impact.

25

PERCEIVED COST PER TRIP TO RIDE THE SMU BUS

71%

14% 13%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Free Less than $1 $1-$2 More than $2

Cost per trip

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Re

spo

nd

en

ts

Figure 9

Nearly 30% believe it is not free. Room for advertising the free service.

26

31%

19%

12%

19%

12%

8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%P

erc

en

tag

e R

es

po

nd

an

ts

Very Unlikely Unlikely SomewhatUnlikely

Somewhat Likely Likely Very Likely

Aspects

LIKELIHOOD OF USING MUSTANG BUS SERVICEFigure 10

60% would not switch to Mustang20% are likely or very likely to switch to Mustang

27

36% 37%

43%

39%

10%

12%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Do not like toride a bus

Have to w ait atthe stop

Not f lexible formy schedule

Inconvenient Boring Other

Reasons

REASONS FOR NOT RIDING THE BUSFigure 11

Lack of flexibility and inconvenience are main reasons for not riding the bus – could be partially overcome. Not wanting to ride is the next main reason – difficult to overcome

28

SUGGESTIONS FOR GETTING PEOPLE TO RIDE SMU BUS

32%

48%

38%

48%

29%32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Heavy Advertising Posting busschedules in

prominet places

More stops More frequentservice

Running buses tillmidnight

Offfering movietickets,gifts,prizes

Suggestions

Pe

rce

nta

ge

re

sp

on

da

nts

Figure 12

Posting bus Schedules and more frequent service are the most popular suggestions.

29

ANALYSIS BY STATUS (Undergrad Vs.Grad Vs. Faculty/Staff)

• Graduates are slightly less aware of Mustang Bus. 84% of graduates are aware compared to 92% for undergrads and 90% for staff/faculty

• 57% of Staff/Faculty are satisfied with parking; Only 32 –35% of undergrads and grads are satisfied with parking.

30

Relationship between parking satisfaction and likelihood of riding the bus

Satisfaction with Parking and Likelihood of Riding Bus

333

(81%)

378

(19%)

196

(81%)

47

(19%)

Unlikely Likely

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

No relationship between parking satisfaction and likelihood of bus ridership

ESTIMATE OF MARKET POTENTIAL

32

FORECAST OF ADDITIONAL DEMAND (TOTAL)

# of Auto Commuters likely to Switch to Mustang Bus

ASSUMPTION

1 Top 2 box rule : 80% of those (7.7%) stating “Very Likely” and

40% of those (11.5%) stating “Likely” would switch.

2 Total # of registered auto commuters = 7,585

Forecast of Market Potential (overall) = 816 (10.8% of 7,585)

(# of registered auto commuters who can be switched)

33

Table 1: FORECAST OF POTENTIAL BY STATUS

STATUS # REGISTERED

(a)

% WILLING TO SWITCH

(b)

# SWITCH

Undergraduates 2047 8.0 164

Graduate 3500 11.1 389

Staff/Faculty 2048 18.1 371

(a) Based on data provided by Auxiliary Services. (b) Based on Top 2 box rule

Interestingly, Graduates and Staff/Faculty appear to be high potential segments.

34

TABLE 2: FORECAST OF POTENTIAL BY RESIDENCE

RESIDENCE # REGISTERED % WILLING TO SWITCH

# SWITCH

On campus 1517 8 121

University Park 910 5.3 48

Highland Park 379 4.9 19

Greenville Area 910 9.1 83

Village 683 6.0 41

Uptown/Oak Lawn

683 7.5 51

Other 2503 18.3 458

Commuters from other (far away) areas show the highest potential, though they may not be currently served by DART/ME.

35

“REALISTIC” ESTIMATE

ASSUMPTIONS:

• Because of inadequate DART/ME connections, only 10%

of potential in other areas can be realized.

• 50% of potential in areas around SMU can be realized.

Realistic Estimate of reduction in Cars = 228.

Realistic range: 200 – 250 Cars.

RECOMMENDATIONS

37

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Potential Exists. There is potential for switching about 800 auto commuters to the bus service if a conveniently scheduled bus service was available from their place of residence. About 200-250 commuters can be switched with slight modifications of existing routes and proactive marketing.

2. Catch Them Young. Undergraduates represent the largest segment of auto commuters, but they are the least willing to switch. It may not be possible to change the minds of Juniors and Seniors because they are used to driving to campus. The Mustang Express program must get the students in their first year. Sessions during orientation, AARO, flyers in their orientation packets, making parents aware of the free bus service, involving Greek houses, advertising in first year dorms, using buses to take students to ball games may be some ways to create awareness and influence them to ride the bus.

38

RECOMMENDATIONS (Contd.)

3. Targeting. While undergraduates represent the largest segment in terms of number, graduates and staff/faculty appear more willing to switch to the bus service. Therefore, all three groups are appropriate for targeting the bus service.

4. Educate Community about Routes and Schedules. Several auto riders felt they could not get access to the routes and schedules when they wanted. When they could get one, it was hard to understand. Routes/Schedule information must be made easier to understand. Information on routes/schedules must be made more easily accessible through distribution in Hughes Trigg (already exists), posting each bus stop, and other places of high student traffic, and even directly mailing to target customers. Information should also be accessible on the web and by calling a phone number. The availability of information on the

web and by phone should be advertised in the posters and flyers.

39

RECOMMENDATIONS (Contd.)

5. Database Marketing. There is a significant amount of data available from the registration card on the commuters’ place of residence, year in college etc. However, even basic information, such as a their breakdown by college status and place of residence, is currently not available. This database has to be successfully exploited. Routes and schedules could be modified to some extent based on a study of areas of student concentration. The database can also be used for direct marketing (see Recommendation #9).

6. Routing, Frequency, and Stops. Obviously, commuters want more stops closer to their residence or destination, greater frequency, and quicker transportation. Not all of this may be feasible. As stated earlier, the registration database may be used to determine a more desirable routing and location of bus stops. A specific suggestion was that the bus should go deep into the Village.

40

RECOMMENDATIONS (Contd.)7. Advertising Objective/Media. Awareness is not a major problem for low bus

ridership -- about 90% are aware. Advertising must create interest and desire: (i) Use huge banners to generate interest and put them in Hughes Trigg, parking lots, and during student orientations. (ii) Advertising in Daily Campus can help to a limited extent. (iii) Place flyers on cars parked on campus.

8. Advertising Message. (i) Advertise that the bus is free – about 30% believe it is not. (ii) Should emphasize that bus riders are no different from auto commuters. May be use a typical student as a spokesperson for riding the bus. (iii) Advertise the hassles of parking but only in a subtle manner – there is no correlation between dissatisfaction with parking and willingness to ride the bus. (iv) The communication should also alleviate any fears that students may have about riding the bus – that it is safe to ride the bus.

41

RECOMMENDATIONS (Contd.)

9. Direct Marketing. For a given route, it is easy to identify the auto commuters in the vicinity of the bus stops using the registration database. It is recommended that a direct marketing campaign launched to attract these target consumers. Such campaign could include mailing flyers, schedules to them and offering incentives such as coupons for free food if they ride the bus or dinner for two

if they bring a friend.