California Statewide Travel Demand Model

Transportation leadership you can trust.

presented to

presented by

California Statewide Travel Demand Model

California State Transportation PlanTechnical Advisory Committee

March 28, 2013

Ronald WestMichelle Bina

2

Presentation Overview

Why Model?

History

Current Model Systems

New Data

Planned Improvements

STP Applications

3

Why Model?

Why Model?

History

Current Model Systems

New Data

Planned Improvements

STP Applications

4

Why Model?Because you have to » SB 391» RTP/RTIP requirements (SB 375)» New Starts (transit)» Air Quality conformity

Because you need to» Objective-based decision-making» Statewide/Regional/Sub-Area problem-solving

• Managing the transportation system• Informs statewide modal plans

» Inter-regional travel is a significant issue throughout California

» Policy questions are increasingly complicated

5

SB 391 and SB 375

SB 391: “Require the CTP to identify the statewide integrated multimodal transportation system needed to achieve a statewide reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80-percent below 1990 levels by 2050.”

SB 375: Interregional Forecasts

SB 375: SCSs from MPOs

Cumulative impacts of SCSs throughout the State

6

History

Why Model?

History

Current Model Systems

New Data

Planned Improvements

STP Applications

7

Statewide Modeling History

2004 1st

Statewide

Model

2007 HSR

Model v 1.0

2010 CSTD

M v1.0 (2008

Base Year)

2012 CSTDM v 1.0

(2015/2040)

2014 CSTDM v 2.0

(2010 Base

Year + Future

No-Builds)

Spring 2015 (CTP

Forecasts)

Continued HSR Model

Improvements

8

Future Year No-Build Forecast Years

Year 2015

Year 2020

Year 2035

Year 2040

Year 2050

9

History

Why Model?

History

Current Model System

New Data

Planned Improvements

STP Applications

10

CSTDM System

Inputs Models Outputs

• Zone system• Road network• Transit network• Population• Employment• Other zonal

properties

• Short-distance personal travel model (SDPTM)

• Long-distance personal travel model (LDPTM)

• Short-distance commercial vehicle model (SDCVM)

• Long-distance commercial vehicle model (LDCVM)

• External travel model (ETM)

• Trip lists• Trip tables• Loaded network• Travel times

and costs• Summary travel

statistics• Maps• Graphs

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CSTDM Modes Mode Short

Distance

Personal

Long Distanc

e Persona

l

Short Distanc

e Comm.

Long Distanc

e Comm.

External Travel

Auto SOV √ √ √Auto HOV 2 person √ √ √

Auto HOV 3+ person √ √ √Transit (bus and rail) √

Bicycle √Walk √Air √Rail √

Light commercial vehicle

√

Medium (Single unit) truck

√ √

Heavy (Multiple unit) truck

√ √ √

12

2020, 2035 and 2050 Socio-Econ Data/Networks

ULTRANS contract with HSRA to produce these datasets» Conscious effort between Caltrans and HSRA to not

duplicate efforts

2020 and 2035 Socio-Economic Data from MPOs» 2050 - From CA Department of Finance +

Extrapolations

Completed April 2012» Caused some delay to start of 2015 and 2040

Forecasts Project (Interim Forecasts Project)

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CSTDM Interim Forecasts – 2015 and 2040

Create new socio-economic datasets

Update networks and add zones

2015 and 2040 No-Project Forecasts

Sensitivity Tests

Completed January 2013

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CSTDM Zones and Network (Current Model)

92,000+ nodes250,000+ linksMulti-modal

5454 internal zones (TAZ) currently5191 (from 2008 base year system) 5422 (from future year forecasts)

53 external zones

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2015 and 2040 Interim ForecastsYear 2010 base year was required» 2008 base year did not accurately represent

existing conditions2008 Total Population

RegionMoody Analytics/

Woods & PooleCSTDM

Population SynthesisPercent

Difference

SCAG 17,819,000 19,364,000 9%

MTC 7,022,000 7,217,000 3%

SANDAG 3,019,000 3,139,000 4%

SACOG 2,266,000 2,136,000 -6%

San Joaquin Valley 3,840,000 3,882,000 1%

Statewide 36,580,000 38,433,000 5%

Historical Change in State Population by Decade

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1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940195

0196

0197

0198

0199

0200

0201

00%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%18

5018

6018

7018

8018

9019

0019

1019

2019

3019

4019

5019

6019

7019

8019

9020

0020

10 -

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

Numerical Change

Percent Change

1950 to 2000Just under 500,000

new residents added per year

2000 to 2010338,000 new residents

(Lower number likely due to recession starting in 2008)

California’s rate of growth has been declining for

decades

Percent Change

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California Population – 2000, 2010 and 2040

Source (Year developed) 2000 2010 2040

Annual Growth Rate

2000-2010 2010-2040

Census - Decennial (actual) 33,872,000 37,254,000 -- 0.96%

CA Dept. of Finance (2007) 34,105,000 39,136,000 54,226,000 1.39% 1.09%

Moodys Economy.com (2011) 33,995,000 37,357,000 51,532,000 0.95% 1.08%

Woods & Poole (2011) 33,995,000 37,342,000 49,546,000 0.94% 0.95%

CSTDM 33,896,000 37,250,000 50,765,000 0.95% 1.04%

CA Dept. of Finance (2013) 37,309,000 47,690,000 0.82%

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Current CSTDM Socio-Economic Data

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 -

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

Total PopulationTotal EmploymentTotal School Enrollment

Statewide Totals

Some Updating of Socio-Economic forecasts will be required

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2015/2040 Sensitivity Test: Increase Auto Operating Costs

Shift in trips to transit and non-motorized modes (SDPTM)Decrease in total daily VMT

SOV HOV 2+

HOV 3+

Transit Bike Walk Total Trips

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%Change in Trips by Mode

Alameda County Los Angeles CountySan Joaquin Valley Statewide

SOV HOV2 HOV3+ Total0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

800,000,000 -12.00%

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

-11.40% -11.40%

-9.80% -11.30%

Statewide VMT Change

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New Data

Why Model?

History

Current Model Systems

New Data

Planned Improvements

STP Applications

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California Household Travel Survey

Tabulations from the CA Statewide Household Travel SurveyExcludes SRBI Surveys Collected in Los Angeles County

Draft Data

Counts Rates

Number of Households 42,431

Number of Persons 109,113 2.57 /HH

Number of Daily Trips 351,774 8.29 trips/HH

3.22 trips/Person Zero Trip Households 5,686 13.4%

Number of LD Households 18,013 42.5% Number of LD Trips 68,193

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Base Year Model Development: Update Socioeconomic Data

TAZs•Aggregate Census Block Data

•Census Population and Household Totals

•Added More Data on Group Quarters

Census Zones•Aggregate Census Tracts

•ACS Household Characteristics

Run Populati

on Synthesi

zer

Contains Information on Every Synthetic

Household in California, including:

•Household Size•Persons by Age•Employment•Income•Housing Type

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Base Year Model Development: Update Socioeconomic Data

IndustryAgriculture/MiningConstructionManufacturingWholesaleTransportation/UtilitiesRetailInformationFinance/Insurance/Real Estate

Professional/Management/AdministrationEducation/HealthArts/Entertainment/Recreation/Accommodation/Food ServiceOther ServiceGovernment

OccupationManagement/BusinessProfessional/TechnicalEducationHealthServiceSales, Food, and Entertainment

ClericalBlue Collar

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Planned Improvements

Why Model?

History

Current Model Systems

New Data

Planned Improvements

STP Applications

25

CSTDM Update Objectives

Key Objectives2015 CTP/

Interregional Travel/ Rural Analysis Needs

Build on/improve the initial CSTDM

Improve model inputs (networks,

network processing, TAZs)

Enhance model credibility, access &

usefulness

Leverage CHTS with – Census, NHTS, long-

distance surveys

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Base Year Model Development

Update networks, network processing, TAZs & SED

Update/estimate new short-distance passenger and long-distance passenger models

Integrate new freight models (UCI) & update external travel model

Calibrate & validate updated CSTDM

California State Freight Forecasting Model

Under development by UC Irvine

Commodity-based model • Forecasts the long haul flow of commodities and

commercial vehicles on freight infrastructure as a function of socioeconomic conditions and infrastructure parameters

Primary Modules Mode Vehicle Class• Commodity Module : Predicts commodity flows• Transshipment Module : Assigns commodities to specific modes• Network Module : Assigns truck/rail modes to routes

• Truck • Rail• Water• Air (+Truck-Air)• Multiple Modes

• FHWA Class : Class 5 to 13

Source: UC Irvine

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CSTDM Update Project Milestones

Month 1 (July 2012)

Month 10 (March 2013)

Month 17 (October 2013)

Month 20 (December 2013)

Month 22 (March 2014)

Kickoff

CHTS

Draft 2010, 2020, 2040 Model

Draft 2015, 2030, 2050 Model

Final Version of Model for all Years

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History

Why Model?

History

Current Model Systems

New Data

Planned Improvements

STP Applications

30

CSTDM Future Forecasts for CTP

Analyze several scenarios to obtain maximum feasible greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. A scenario will be defined as multiple surface transportation GHG reduction strategies.

An example of a scenario would include a strategy or multiple strategies (e.g. VMT tax – the base (existing condition) would be no tax, moderately aggressive would be $.10 per mile and aggressive would be $.25 per mile). The CSTDM is currently being updated and is anticipated to be available Winter 2013/14.

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CSTDM Update + CTP Forecasts Milestones

(March 2013)

(October 2013)

(December 2013)

(February 2014)

CHTS

Draft 2010, 2020, 2040 Model

Draft 2015, 2030, 2050 Model

Final Version of Model for all Years

Final CTP Forecasts (~January 2015)

Q & A