California Energy Commission Retail Electric Rate Projections: Preliminary Cases 2015 Integrated Energy Policy Report California Energy Commission July 7, 2015 Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Prepared by Lynn Marshall Supply Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division [email protected]/916-654-4767
California Energy Commission Retail Electric Rate Projections: Preliminary Cases 2015 Integrated Energy Policy Report California Energy Commission July.
Dec 24, 2015
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California Energy Commission
Retail Electric Rate Projections:
Preliminary Cases
2015 Integrated Energy Policy ReportCalifornia Energy Commission
July 7, 2015
Malachi Weng-GutierrezPrepared by Lynn Marshall
Supply Analysis OfficeEnergy Assessments Division
[email protected]/916-654-4767
California Energy Commission
Context of Electric Rate Model
2
Natural gas supply basins
Connected to
Interstate and Intrastate Pipelines
Connected to
Demand centers
• Revised rate forecast will incorporate data from recently submitted 2015 IEPR supply and demand forms
California Energy Commission
Electricity Rate Cases
3
– Low Electricity Rate Case (High Energy Demand)• Low natural gas and carbon prices • More sales to recover transmission and distribution and
other relatively fixed costs
– High Electricity Rate Case (Low Energy Demand)• High natural gas and carbon prices • Lower demand means fixed costs per kwh of sales are
higher
– Mid Electricity Rate Case (Mid Energy Demand) • Mid demand, natural gas, and carbon prices
California Energy Commission
Data & Assumptions for Retail Electric Rate Cases
4
Assumption High Demand Case (Lower Electricity
Prices)
Mid Demand Case (Mid Electricity
Prices)
Low Demand Case (Higher Electricity
Prices)
Demand, Efficiency, and Distributed Generation
CED 2014 Update High
CED 2014 Update Mid
CED 2014 Update Low
Natural Gas Prices Preliminary 2015 IEPR NAMGas Low
Preliminary 2015 IEPR NAMGas Reference
Preliminary 2015 IEPR NAMGas High
Renewables Procurement 33% of High Demand 33% of Mid Demand 33% of Low DemandGHG Price Preliminary 2015 Low Preliminary 2015
Mid Preliminary 2015 High
DistributionTransmissionPublic Purpose Programs
Recent Trends/DecisionsCAISO 2014-2015 EstimatesEscalated with GDP Deflator
California Energy Commission
Preliminary Natural Gas Prices by Hub
5• Source: Supply Analysis Office NamGas Model, March 23, 2015.
• SDG&E prices are similar to SCG
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Pric
e p
er T
ho
us
an
d C
ub
ic F
ee
t, 2
01
3$
PG&E Mid
PG&E High
PG&E Low
SCG Mid
SCG High
SCG Low
California Energy Commission
CAISO Transmission Access Charge
6
Source: Energy Commission Staff and CAISO 2014 Transmission Access Charge Forecast Model, April 2014.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
$ p
er
MW
H,
20
13
$
California Energy Commission
IOU Revenue Requirement Growth by Case
7
2013 Revenue Requirement
PG&E 2013 Millions $ High Mid LowPurchased Power 4.18 0.7% 3.4% 4.2%Distribution 4.45 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%Transmission 1.28 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
SCEPurchased Power 4.01 2.6% 3.5% 4.5%Distribution 4.26 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%Transmission 0.89 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
SDG&EPurchased Power 0.98 3.4% 4.4% 5.5%Distribution 1.17 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%Transmission 0.41 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Annual Average Growth Rate 2013-2026
California Energy Commission
Preliminary Mid Case Planning Area Residential Rates
8
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Ce
nts
pe
r K
WH
(2
01
3$
)
2013 2026
California Energy Commission
Preliminary Mid Case Planning Area Commercial Rates
9
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Ce
nts
pe
r K
WH
20
13
$
2013 2026
California Energy Commission
Preliminary ResultsAnnual Average Rate Increase by Case
10
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
LADWP PG&E SCE SDG&E SMUD
Ave
rage
An
nu
al I
ncr
ea
se
High Demand Mid Demand Low Demand
California Energy Commission
Comparison with CED 2013 Rate CasesResidential Mid Case2013 Cents per KWH
11
2013 2024 2013 2024 2013 % Diff.
2024 % Diff.
PG&E 15.76 17.98 16.79 20.31 7% 13%SCE 15.52 18.11 16.58 20.54 7% 13%SDG&E 18.69 21.40 17.35 20.50 -7% -4%LADWP 13.37 16.48 14.12 17.29 6% 5%SMUD 12.79 15.01 12.49 15.10 -2% 1%IID 13.28 15.12 13.19 16.34 -1% 8%Burb./Glen. 16.52 20.38 14.99 18.57 -9% -9%Pasadena 16.25 20.03 15.50 19.21 -5% -4%
CED 2013 Final CED 2015 Preliminary
Planning Area
California Energy Commission
Conclusions
12
Questions and Comments
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