C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Wednesday 4 October: Film: Inside 9/11 (E hour: All sections meet in TH348) Friday 6 October: Book Review due.

COMBATING TERRORISM CENTERat West Point

• Wednesday 4 October: Film: Inside 9/11 (E hour: All sections meet in TH348)

• Friday 6 October: Book Review due

• Tuesday 10 October:WPR– Comprehensive– Study lesson objectives, assigned readings, etc

• DC Trip Finalists – see list

SS474: Terrorism and Counterterrorism

Lesson 8: AQ Pre-9/11


Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon23 October 1983

• 241 Dead• 105 Injured

“We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines.”

-- Ronald Reagan, An American Life

“We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines.”

-- Ronald Reagan, An American Life


New York, World Trade CenterFebruary 26, 19936 Dead, 1,042 Injured

Oklahoma CityMurrah Federal Building,

19 April 1995168 Dead, 490 Injured


Matsumoto, JapanMarch, 19947 Dead, 34 Injured

Sarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that a person cannot breathe.

Sarin enters the body by inhalation, ingestion, and through the eyes and skin.

Symptoms begin with watery eyes, drooling, and excessive sweating, and then rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing, dimness of vision, nausea, vomiting, twitching, and headache.

Ultimately the victim will become comatose and suffocate as a consequence of convulsive spasms.

Tokyo, JapanTeito Rapid Transit Authority (Subway System) March 20, 199512 Dead, 5,000 Injured

Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas AttacksJapan, 1994 & 1995


Khobar Towers - Dhahran, Saudi Arabia 25 June 1996

• 19 Dead

• 240 Injured


American Embassy Bombings, Kenya and TanzaniaAugust 1998 200 Americans, Kenyans, and Tanzanians deadOver 5,000 injured


1999 LAX Attack Plan


The Strategy of Terrorism

• Increasing interest in “soft targets” (economically strategic impact, and less protected) such as:

– pubs in Northern Ireland & London UK– open markets & cafes in Israel– international airport, Sri Lanka– bus in Manila, the Philippines– shopping mall in southern Philippines– nightclub in Bali, Indonesia– banks in Istanbul, Turkey– hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia– nightclub in Berlin, Germany

– and, of course . . .


New York City & Washington, DCSeptember 11, 2001

2,973 Dead, and 10,000+ Injured


Modern Trends in Global Terrorism

• More violent attacks (increasing lethality)• Increasing use of suicide bombers

(the ultimate smart bomb)


Karachi, PakistanMay 8, 2002 June 14, 2002

12 Dead50 Injured

14 Dead, including11 French engineers

Bus attackAttack on U.S. Consulate


Bali, IndonesiaOctober 12, 2002 202 Dead

350 Injured

Citizens from 21 countries, mostly Western tourists, were killed in the blasts


Casablanca, MoroccoMay 17, 2003

44 Dead107 Injured


Jakarta, IndonesiaAugust 5, 2003

12 Dead60 Injured

J.W. Marriott Hotel, Jakarta


Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaNovember 8, 2003 April 21, 2004

4 Dead148 Injured

3 simultaneous suicide car bomb attacks on Al-Muhaya apartment complex

Attack on Security Services Headquarters

17 Dead122 Injured


Istanbul, TurkeyNovember 20, 2003

27 Dead400 Injured

Primary Targets: British consulate and the HSBC bank headquarters


Madrid, SpainMarch 11, 2004

191 Dead1,035 Injured


Jakarta, IndonesiaSeptember 9, 2004

9 Dead173 Injured

Australian Embassy was primary target


London, UKJuly 7, 2005

54 Dead716 Injured


Why?

What’s the history, strategy, etc. of the modern terrorism threat?


AQ Pre-9/11• What is al Qaeda’s strategy?

What are their strategic objectives?

• 1996 fatwa– declaration of war, warned of presence of American and

British “Crusader forces” • Saudi Arabia would become a beach head to impose a new

imperialism on the region to obtain its oil

– “It is no secret that warding off the American enemy is the top duty after faith and nothing should take priority over it”

– All ulema are “unanimous that it is an individual duty to fight an invading enemy”


• 1998 Fatwa – shift from the near enemy to the far enemy

• Bin Laden’s critical contribution = re-directing energies of Jihadists toward attacking the U.S. anywhere

• AQ and bin Laden do not want to be global leader of terrorists; rather, provide a spark, motivator, bring them under ideological umbrella

AQ Pre-9/11


AQ Pre-9/11Appreciating the Strategic Story:

– Al Qaeda “proper" desires large attacks on US– Al Qaeda is focused on US economy– What about other groups & their objectives?– US interests abroad remain vulnerable– We are dealing with a strategic enemy– Perceptions matter– Long-view of the story is critical:

“Connecting the dots” vs. “Knowing the story


ICE: AQ Timeline

In Groups of 4:

• Construct a timeline of key events leading up to 9/11

• Demonstrate how early terrorist groups or events have some relation to the events of 9/11

• Try to go as far back as 1968

2004 1968

?

1995

AumShinrikyo(Tokyo)

1986

Pan Am(Tel Aviv)

1994

Air France#8969

1996

bin LadenFatwa

1998bin Laden

Fatwa2000

USS Cole

1999 Millennium

PlotsLAX, Jordan

1993

WTCBombing

Landmark Plot

1st attack on U.S. soil?

KSM is uncle of Yousef

Importantconceptualshift from

“near enemy”to “far enemy”

3/11Madrid

2001

9/11

Focused U.S. security policy towards

non-state actors andWMD concerns

YousefKSM

Islamic Terrorism Timeline: A Strategic View

Embassybombings

Khobar Towers

1983

BeirutEmbassy& MarineBarracks

lessonslearned?

1985

Somaliapaper tiger?

7/7London

OplanBojinka


• Three capabilities critical to 9/11 still exist – Ability to identify and exploit a key gap in opponents’ defenses– Effective and clever use of deception and denial– Suicide attacks employed to ensure operation’s success

• Theoretically, a vast reservoir of trained recruits remains available for activation/mobilization– Tens of thousands jihadists trained in past decade– Means and methods of terrorism widely disseminated

AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats



• Method of attack– Depends on which “Al Qaeda” you are dealing with – Al Qaeda prefers coordinated attacks in waves– Well-planned with strong reconnaissance efforts

• Detailed planning efforts• Rehearsals• Strong operational security

Most likely means• High yield explosives• Vehicle delivery

Most difficult• Unconventional weapons

Con

sequ

ence

Probability

VBIEDWMD

IED



Al Qaeda of today is not the Al Qaeda of yesterday– Robust organization – Now global social movement– Strong command and control – Now loose direction– Operational freedom – Now focused on operational

security– Dangerous organization – Now still extremely

dangerous

Questions??

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point Wednesday 4 October: Film: Inside 9/11 (E hour: All sections meet in TH348) Friday 6 October: Book Review due.

Documents

c ombating t errorism

injured slide

west point jakarta

west point lesson

west point london

west point bali

west point istanbul

west point riyadh