C HAPTER 10 P UBLIC O PINION Copyright © 2012 Cengage Learning.

CHAPTER 10PUBLIC OPINION

CHAPTER 10PUBLIC OPINION

Copyright © 2012 Cengage Learning

CHAPTER 10: LEARNING CHAPTER 10: LEARNING OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES

Understand the theoretically important role public opinion plays in American democracy and the tactical function it plays in the policy-making process

Learn the different ways in which public opinion may be expressed, including public opinion polls, rallies and protests, blogging, voting, and contributing time and money to campaigns



Distinguish between the different levels of public opinion, from broad values and beliefs, to partisan and ideological orientations, to attitudes and opinions on specific items

Assess the mass public’s level of knowledge about American politics and the capacity of the public to contribute to the political process



Recognize that political socialization is a lifelong process and know a number of important factors (such as family, schools, friends, religion) that contribute to the development of political opinions

Explain the differences between a scientific poll and an unscientific poll



Identify the criteria for asking unbiased poll questions

Assess the findings from a poll along the dimensions of direction, intensity, and continuity of public opinion


THE HIGHS AND LOWS OF PRESIDENTIAL THE HIGHS AND LOWS OF PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY: NOW & THENPOPULARITY: NOW & THEN

NOW… In a Gallup Poll after the 9/11 attacks G.W. Bush registered the highest approval ratings ever recorded by Gallup - 90%

By the time Bush was settling into his final year in office—five years after the invasion of Iraq—

His approval ratings had reached a Gallup Poll record low of 25%


THEN… LYNDON JOHNSONTHEN… LYNDON JOHNSON

In a Gallup Poll conducted shortly after Johnson took the oath, after Kennedy’s assassination—

A near record 79% approved of his performance, affording him considerable presidential power

The Vietnam War gradually brought it to a low of 35% in his final year in office


NOW AND THEN…NOW AND THEN…

A president’s authority to govern is, in part, influenced by the polls

When public support is high, a president enjoys a great deal of persuasive power

When support drops, may be reduced to a lame duck with little or no power

The significant role public opinion plays is as old as American democracy itself



CORBIS

AP PHOTO/GERALD HERBERT

PUBLIC OPINION IN AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION IN AMERICAN POLITICSPOLITICS

Democracy (Greek roots - demos kratos) means “rule by the people”

Thus the opinions of the public take on a particularly important role in governing

Political scientist V. O. Key Jr., defined public opinion as “those opinions held by private persons which government finds it prudent to heed”


Protesters at an April 2006 rally in Washington, D.C., calling for American intervention to stop genocide in Darfur. Protests are an important expression of public opinion in the United States.


MANUEL BALCE CENETA/ASSOCIATED PRESS

HOW IS PUBLIC OPINION HOW IS PUBLIC OPINION EXPRESSED?EXPRESSED?

Public opinion polls and voting Political rallies and protest ralliesMoney, time, and effort contributed to

candidates, interest groups, or political action committees

Radio and TV shows, Web sites, and editorial pages

Direct contact via email, mail, or phoneCopyright © 2012 Cengage Learning

AMERICAN GOVERNMENT … IN AMERICAN GOVERNMENT … IN POPULAR PERSPECTIVEPOPULAR PERSPECTIVE

Shaping Public Opinion, One Blog at a time:

Typical blogs combine commentary, opinions, data with images, links to other blogs, Web pages, and other media

Those who read blogs for political information do not always distinguish between blogs and news



Do you go to blogs to shape your own political opinions? Why or why not?

Do you tend to visit blogs that reinforce your own biases and attitudes, or do you look for blogs that challenge your opinions?

What does that say about the way that blogs shape public opinion?



What can bloggers offer to coverage of an ongoing political event, such as a major party political convention, that traditional journalists may have difficulty capturing?


THE LEVELS OF PUBLIC OPINIONTHE LEVELS OF PUBLIC OPINION

Public opinion exists at three basic levels

1. The broad level of values and beliefs

2. An intermediate level of political orientations

3. The specific level of preferences about particular topics


VALUES AND BELIEFSVALUES AND BELIEFS

Values: broad principles underlying the American political culture to which most citizens support and adhere

Beliefs: facts derived from values that people take for granted about the world

Examples: liberty, equality, individualism, and the rule of law


POLITICAL ORIENTATIONSPOLITICAL ORIENTATIONS

Translation of the values and beliefs into a systematic way of assessing the political environment

Two ways in which Americans orient themselves toward political issues

1. Partisanship

2. Political ideology


HOW INFORMED IS PUBLIC HOW INFORMED IS PUBLIC OPINION?OPINION?

Contemporary studies indicate that the American public is uninformed about politics

Also, many surveys show the public’s level of expressed interest in politics is quite low

How much confidence should we have in elections where the voters know little about the candidates and the issues?


HOW DOES PUBLIC OPINION HOW DOES PUBLIC OPINION FORM?FORM?

Political socialization: life-long process by which an individual acquires values, beliefs, and opinions about politics

Primacy tendency: impressions and information acquired while the individual is younger tend to be most influential and the longest lasting


HOW DOES PUBLIC OPINION HOW DOES PUBLIC OPINION FORM?FORM?

Agents of political socializationDemographic factors – race, ethnicity,

gender, age and economic statusFamily, friends and peer groupsSchools The media Religion


Actress and comedian Tina Fey made several appearances on the comedy show Saturday Night Live impersonating Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and serving to influence how voters learned about the candidate.


HOW IS PUBLIC OPINION HOW IS PUBLIC OPINION MEASURED?MEASURED?

Public opinion pollMeasuring opinions of a large group of

people by: selecting a subset asking them questions, and generalizing the findings to the larger group

What makes a poll “scientific”? How can two polls be conducted on the same topic and produce different findings?


THE HISTORY OF POLITICAL THE HISTORY OF POLITICAL POLLINGPOLLING

Straw poll: gathers opinions of people conveniently available in a particular place

Immediate predecessor to modern scientific polling, and dates back to the 1824 presidential campaign

Newspaper “counters” in public places asked people who they were voting for


AMERICAN GOVERNMENT . . . IN AMERICAN GOVERNMENT . . . IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:

Polling Problems in Presidential Elections:

“Dewey Defeats Truman”? “Gore defeats Bush”?

Polls played an important role in the predictions that caused considerable confusion


YOUR PERSPECTIVE . . . ON YOUR PERSPECTIVE . . . ON AMERICAN POLITICSAMERICAN POLITICS

College Students Making Their Voices Heard:

Have you participated in a protest rally or march on campus? If not, why not?

Why do you think colleges and universities tend to foster this form of expression in particular?



Protesters at the University of California express concern over college tuition increases on March 4, 2012 (picture from the March 5, 2010, USA Today)

SCIENTIFIC SAMPLINGSCIENTIFIC SAMPLING

Uses probability theory as a guide to selecting people from the population who will comprise the sample

Random selection of respondents in the sample is key to achieving a scientific, or representative, sample

Each possible respondent has the same chance of being selected


UNSCIENTIFIC POLLSUNSCIENTIFIC POLLS

The sample of people interviewed is not representative of any group beyond those who register their opinion

If the vast majority of people in a population are given a chance of being sampled, the poll is scientific

If not, the sample represents nothing beyond itself


UNSCIENTIFIC POLLSUNSCIENTIFIC POLLS

Examples: Log-in pollsSLOPs: self-selected listener opinion

pollsCRAPs: computerized response

audience polling Intercept polls


PSEUDO-POLLSPSEUDO-POLLS

Unscrupulous political campaigns and political action committees (PACs)

Disguising themselves as pollsters to plant messages with voters and raise funds instead of measuring public opinion

Examples: “Push polls,” “FRUGing,” SUGing”


SAMPLE SIZESAMPLE SIZE

The amount of error in the poll resulting from interviewing a sample rather than the whole population under study—

Largely a function of sample size— The larger the sample size, the less

sampling error with the pollHowever, there is a law of diminishing

returns with increasing the sample sizeCopyright © 2012 Cengage Learning

ASKING QUESTIONS ON POLLSASKING QUESTIONS ON POLLS

The way a question is worded can have a large impact on the type of answers that are given by survey respondents

Example “Does it seem possible or does it seem

impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?”


ASKING QUESTIONS ON POLLSASKING QUESTIONS ON POLLS

Constructing good poll questions:1. Avoid double-negatives

2. Keep the question simple

3. Don’t include more than one question

4. Don’t use leading questions

5. Don’t expect honest answers to socially unacceptable response questions


INTERPRETING PUBLIC OPINION INTERPRETING PUBLIC OPINION DATADATA

Three important characteristics of public opinion data: 1. Direction

Which preference a majority holds

2. IntensityHow strongly held is the opinion

3. ContinuityThe “changeability,” of the opinion


NOW & THEN: MAKING THE NOW & THEN: MAKING THE CONNECTIONCONNECTION

As Presidents Johnson and G.W. Bush quickly learned, public opinion can change drastically

Scientific opinion polls are a modern phenomenon

But the importance of public opinion has always been central to the life of American politics


POLITICS INTERACTIVE!POLITICS INTERACTIVE!

Tracking the Latest Public Opinion Polls

Use the following links to find out how these organizations conduct polls and how they measure presidential approval

What are the different methodologies of the pollsters, and how might they contribute to different findings?


POLITICS INTERACTIVE!POLITICS INTERACTIVE!

http://www.gallup.comhttp://www.rasmussenreports.comhttp://www.washingtonpost.comhttp://www.quinnipiac.eduwww.cengage.com/dautrich/

americangovernment/2e, find the link for presidential approval ratings and how polling organizations measure them and their results


A telephone interviewer for a public opinion polling firm asks a randomly selected voter whom she will vote for in an upcoming election.


BLUE JEAN IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

C HAPTER 10 P UBLIC O PINION Copyright © 2012 Cengage Learning.

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