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RETHINKING ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS: WICKED PROBLEMS & CLUMSY SOLUTIONS
Steve RaynerJames Martin Professor of Science & CivilizationUniversity of Oxford
WHAT DO THE FOLLOWING HAVE IN COMMON?
• Crime
• North Korea
• Poverty
• Cancer
• Drugs
• Terror
• Climate change
WE ARE STILL AT WAR WITH THEM!
• Crime – J Edgar Hoover 1930s
• North Korea – 1950-1953
• Poverty – Harold Wilson 1950s
• Cancer – Richard Nixon 1970
• Drugs – Richard Nixon 1971
• Terror – George Bush 2001
• Climate change – Richard Branson 2008
WICKED PROBLEMS
• Coined by Rittel & Weber (1973) to characterize complex social problems
• Compared public health engineering in late 19th & early 20th centuries with late 20th
century urban planning
• Contrasted puzzle-solving in science with complexities of social policy
• Noted challenges of increasing heterogeneity & value conflicts in modern society
CHARACTERISTICS
• Persistent & insoluble – not really problems?
• Symptoms of deeper problems
• Little room for trial & error learning
• Characterized by contradictory certitudes &
inconclusive evidence
• Proposed solutions create new problems
• Involve entrenched interests
– Coping not solving
– Feasibility not optimality
Wicked - Conflicting Worldviews
Complex - Expert
Judgement
Tame - Consensus
Uncertainty/ignorance
DecisionStakes
High
High
Low
3 KINDS OF PROBLEM
Source: Funtowicz & Ravetz
CHESAPEAKE BAY PROGRAM
MODELS & REALITY
LOCAL & GLOBAL
… the local is not a more limited or narrowly focused apprehension than the global, it is one that rests on an altogether different mode of apprehension – one based on an active perceptual engagement with components of the dwelt-in world, in the practical business of life, rather than on the detached, disinterested observation of a world apart. (Ingold 1993:40-41)
MEDIATED BY TECHNOLOGY
NATURE AS SCIENCE
IN NATURE & APART FROM IT
TAMING WICKED PROBLEMS
• Nancy Roberts proposed 3 simplifying strategies:
– Hierarchical – simplify issues & apply procedures
– Competitive – use expertise to control resources
– Egalitarian – open the problem to stakeholders
TAMING WICKEDNESS THROUGH SCIENCE
• “Science based policy” & “evidence-based policy as attempts to cut through value conflict
• Proliferation of “science assessments” at all levels from IPCC & MEA to technical assessments
• Surfeit of science permits cherry picking
TAMING WICKEDNESS THROUGH MARKETS
• Remove the “dead hand” of government to unleash creativity
• Allow markets to find efficient solutions through wisdom of crowds
• Problems of information asymmetry and uneven market power, etc.
TAMING WICKEDNESS THROUGH PARTICIPATION
• Increasing focus on consultations, planning cells, consensus conferences, citizen juries, citizen advisory boards, constructive technology assessment, etc.
• Assumes social decisions are aggregative (Arrow’s Paradox)
• Issues of representativeness, legitimacy, cost, effectiveness, etc.
TAMING THE PROBLEM OR DIGGING IN DEEPER?
• Solution to failure is to try harder at what is not working
• Each response is a way of disorganizing alternatives – leads to contested knowledge
• Each reflects a coherent world view of nature and society
NATURE & POLITICS
VIEWS OF NATURE
Hierarchical
Perverse/tolerant
Competitive
Benign
Egalitarian
Ephemeral
VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY
Hierarchical
Perverse/tolerant
Egalitarian
Benign
Competitive
Ephemeral
Hierarchical
Procedure
Egalitarian
Participation
Competitive
Performance
MINIMUM SOLUTION SPACE
CLIMATE REDUCTIONISM
MISLEADING ANALOGIES
DAUNTING PROSPECTS
01
23
45
67
-1.6 -1 0 1 1.6
None at all
Extremely high
risk
Very low
Low
Between low
and moderate
Moderate
Between moderate
and high
High
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Liberal
Democrat
Conservative
Republican
Moderate
Independent
Left-right political orientation
“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human
health, safety, or prosperity?”
r = - 0.65, p < 0.01
Very liberal
Strong Democrat
Very Conservative
Strong Republican
Liberal
Democrat
Conservative
Republican
Moderate
Independent
Source: Dan Kahan
CLIMATE & POLITICS
01
23
45
67
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21
None at all
Extremely high
risk
Very low
Low
Between low
and moderate
Moderate
Between moderate
and high
High
> avg. Left-right
< avg. Left-right
“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human
health, safety, or prosperity?”
Science ComprehensionVery low Very high
01
23
45
67
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21
01
23
45
67
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21
Source: Dan Kahan
CLIMATE & SCIENCE LITERACY
REDFINING THE PROBLEM
CONFRONT THE OBJECT
AND DRAW NIGH OBLIQUELY
TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION
• The Kaya identity is expressed in the form:
F = P * (G / P) * (E / G) * (F / E) = P * g * e * f
where F is global CO2 emissions from human sources, P is global population, G is world GDP and
g = (G/P) is global per-capita GDP, E is global primary energy consumption and e=(E/G) is the
energy intensity of world GDP, and f=(F/E) is the carbon intensity of energy
• Emissions = Population x Wealth x Technology
• Population and wealth restriction are not politically attractive
• 1.5 billion people lack access to reliable energy
• World is urbanising rapidly – limits distributed generation/storage
• RDD&D doesn’t require global intergovernmental agreement
Hierarchical
Energy Security
Collectivist
Human Dignity
Competitive
New Market Opportunities
BROAD APPEAL?
Hartwell Approach –
Climate Pragmatism
DEMOCRACY
Democracy is not about
getting people who think
differently to think the
same thing. It is about
getting people who think
differently to do the
same thing.
MAKING DEMOCRACY WORK
• Robert Putnam (1993) described disparities in institutional performance of 20 regions comprising Northern & Southern Italy
– Public administration
– Economic development
• Explored obvious variables
– Geography
– Wealth/public expenditure
– Education
CIVIC ENGAGEMENT
• Consists of voluntary organizations (sporting, hobbyist, etc)
• Only statistically significant variable
• Accounts for distribution of performance within North & South as well as between them
• Originates with mediaeval urban communes & guilds
• Historically (1860-1920) predicts contemporary economic development & civic community: historical economic development has no effect on contemporary civics
COMPLEX STRATEGY SWITCHING
• Only 2 ways of organizing offers only a
switch or pendulum
• 3 modes is minimum condition for
complex development
• Law of Minimum Requisite Variety
• Strategy switching requires
– Visible alternative models
– Experience with alternatives
ADVANTAGES OF CONTESTATION
Perspective Contested Uncontested
Hierarchical System
maintenance
Complacency &
corruption
Competitive Innovation Monopoly &
extortion
Egalitarian Early warning Factional
squabbling &
paranoia
PLURALISM & PERFORMANCE
• High reliability organizations combine all 3 organizational forms
– Hierarchical
– Competitive
– Egalitarian
CLUMSY SOLUTIONS
• Michael Shapiro (1999) - judicial selection
• Observe law of minimum requisite variety
• All voices heard & responded to
• Are emergent & often informal
• Are “settlements” not permanent ‘fixes’
US NUCLEAR POWER POLICY
• Weinberg – US has no nuclear energy policy
• Rayner – Yes it has
– Continue R&D
– No new capacity
• Parties could not agree they had agreed
WATER STRESS
• Conservation rate pricing in San Juan Capsitrano
– Household allocation
– Seasonally adjusted lot size
– Discretionary use at high price
• Embodied competing principles of fairness
CHALLENGES
• Embracing clumsiness moves us from techniques
for selecting among alternatives towards new
skills for creating imaginative solutions to wicked
problems
But
• Requires a new post-binary politics
• May appear to media & public as weak leadership
Ultimately
• Not just a design problem – it’s a challenge to the imagination
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