1 Excellence in Market Intelligence 1 BSRIA World Market Intelligence Industry Briefing - Agenda Topic Person Time Welcome Julia Evans BSRIA CEO 08:00 am Heating markets worldwide: Everything changes so - everything stays the same? Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables 08:00 - 08:15 am Intelligent Building Controls Market and the IoT Revolution – how much is hype and how much is really happening? Raphael Chalogany Business Development Manager NAM 08:15 - 08:30 am Connected, Smart HVAC Technology is here – Fact or Fiction? Jeremy Towler Senior Manager – Energy & Smart Technologies 08:30 - 08:45 am Global HVACR trends – finding the sweet spots? Anette Holley Senior Manager – Air- conditioning 08:45 - 09:00 am 2020 and Beyond – how menacing will the new supply chain controller be? Andrew Giles General Manager 09:00 - 09:15 am Q & A 09:15 - 09:30 am
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BSRIA World Market Intelligence Industry Briefing - AHR Expo 2016
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1 Excellence in Market Intelligence 1
BSRIA World Market Intelligence
Industry Briefing - Agenda
Topic Person Time
Welcome Julia Evans BSRIA CEO
08:00 am
Heating markets worldwide: Everything changes so - everything stays the same?
Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager – Heating &
Renewables 08:00 - 08:15 am
Intelligent Building Controls Market and the IoT Revolution – how much is hype and how much is really happening?
Raphael Chalogany Business Development
Manager NAM 08:15 - 08:30 am
Connected, Smart HVAC Technology is here – Fact or Fiction? Jeremy Towler
Senior Manager – Energy & Smart Technologies
08:30 - 08:45 am
Global HVACR trends – finding the sweet spots? Anette Holley
Senior Manager – Air-conditioning
08:45 - 09:00 am
2020 and Beyond – how menacing will the new supply chain controller be?
Andrew Giles General Manager
09:00 - 09:15 am
Q & A 09:15 - 09:30 am
2 Excellence in Market Intelligence 2
BSRIA World Market Intelligence
Industry Briefing - Agenda
Topic Person Time
Welcome Julia Evans BSRIA CEO
08:00 am
Heating markets worldwide: Everything changes so - everything stays the same?
Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager – Heating &
Renewables 08:00 - 08:15 am
Intelligent Building Controls Market and the IoT Revolution – how much is hype and how much is really happening?
Raphael Chalogany Business Development
Manager NAM 08:15 - 08:30 am
Connected, Smart HVAC Technology is here – Fact or Fiction? Jeremy Towler
Senior Manager – Energy & Smart Technologies
08:30 - 08:45 am
Global HVACR trends – finding the sweet spots? Anette Holley
Senior Manager – Air-conditioning
08:45 - 09:00 am
2020 and Beyond – how menacing will the new supply chain controller be?
Andrew Giles General Manager
09:00 - 09:15 am
Q & A 09:15 - 09:30 am
Latest trends in the World
Traditional & Renewable Heating
Markets
AHR Expo 2016
Krystyna Dawson
Heating & Renewables Manager - BSRIA
Worldwide Market Intelligence
January 2016
4 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Agenda
What drives and prevents changes in the heating world
How do renewables perform in the overall heating markets
Sales trends in domestic boilers up to 2020
Latest development in solar thermal and heat pump markets
Half-hearted support for heat pumps so far
Status of heat generators by 2030
4
5 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Move towards Integrated HVAC
systems
Controls & energy management are
growing
Low penetration of renewables in
existing buildings
Increasing gasification in China, Russia and S. Korea
5
Main trends in traditional
Heating Markets, 2015 - 2017
Importance
Urgency
Growing importance of Energy networks
In cities
Substitution of boilers by renewables in new build
Increasing penetration of wall-hung
boilers
Gas-fuelled boilers dominance grows
• Energy efficiency legislation for buildings & products
• Increased RES & distributed energy generation
• Low oil/gas prices
• Economics uncertainty
Global Drivers:
ErP and other efficiency targets drive sales
of condensing products
6 Excellence in Market Intelligence 6
Eco Design
A +++ ≥150%
A ++ ≥125%
A + ≥98%
A ≥90%
B ≥82%
C ≥75%
D ≥36%
E ≥34%
Cogeneration Gas HP
Condensing boilers
Non-condensing boilers
Ground /Water to water HP
Air to water HP
From 26/9/2015 products with Label D to G are no longer allowed to be sold
Fuel cell
Minimum energy performance and Labels mandatory from 26 Sep. 2015
A ≥175%
B ≥150%
C ≥125%
D ≥100%
E ≥75%
F ≥50%
G ≥34%
New scale from 2020 probable
Empty classes?
Gas boilers on the way out?
ErP – Impact on products
Hydrogen boilers ?
7 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Water Heating markets by type of technology
7
Includes: Europe, North America, SA Asia, Japan, Brazil, Australia
Total market in 2015: 107.1 mln units
- 3%
‘
Electric storage 32%
Gas storage 6%
Electric instantaneous
31%
Gas instantandous
17%
Domestic hot water heat
pump 2%
Solar Thermal 12%
8 Excellence in Market Intelligence 8
Water Heating market Europe
Technology overview
European Water Heating market, by type, 2015
DHW HP sales, units, 2012 - 2018
• Electric storage dominate the market but their share is decreasing.
• Instantaneous water heaters are considered more energy efficient.
• Condensing WH will become prevalent from 2018 due to the legislation.
• DHW heat pumps are gaining momentum mainly in France.
ST Water Heaters
SHW HP
Combi boilers
Electric storage
Electric instantaneous
Gas instantaneous
Total market: 14 mln units ca +3%
Includes Turkey, excludes Russia
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
CAGR 15%
9 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Solar thermal markets
51,264
4,324 1,690 1,778 914
2,719
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
China Europe Turkey Brazil India Other countries
World main solar thermal markets 2012 - 2015
* 29 countries
Total world* market: 62.7 million m2 in 2015e (-3%)
• ~ -4% growth in 2015
• ~ 79% of world market
‘000 m2
2012 2013 2014 2015
10 Excellence in Market Intelligence
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market drivers for heat pumps
Building regulations . . .
Energy efficiency regulations for products . . .
PV & storage market development . . .
Smart grid development. . .
But only relate to the new build
But they are done half hearted so far
Storage batteries needed to support own consumption
“connected home” solutions. • IoT enables “ubiquitous Home” • Systems learn user behaviour/
lifestyle - respond accordingly
“50 billion devices by 2020” (Cisco)
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Gen-Z expect solutions
32
33 Excellence in Market Intelligence
PHASE 1 1. Germany 2. France 3. UK 4. Italy 5. Poland 6. Other
Europe
Big market for Hydronic valves - valve actuators –
controls in residential and commercial buildings
33
PHASE 2 7. China 8. North America
Belimo
Bosch
Danfoss
E-on
Honeywell
IBP
IMI
Intermatic (Grasslin)
Freese
Mohelenhoff
Pegler
Rehau
Oventrop
Siemens
Tacnova
Wilo
Vaillant
Sauter
Contributors include: JCI
Nexus Valves
Xylem
Bray Controls
Kele
Taco Comfort Solutions
Watts Water Technologies
Valve Mfrs Assoc. of Am. (VMA)
Invensys / Schneider Electric
• First study of its kind
• Already bought by
22 major clients
Available Jan/Feb
2016
Published Jan 2015
34 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Hydronic controls market
residential / commercial split (by value)
34
Europe China North America(prov)
Residential USD
Commercial Market USD]
35 Excellence in Market Intelligence 35
World BEMS*
Market growing at 14% CAGR
* Building Energy Management Systems
Source: BSRIA Quarterly update – Nov 2015
EU, 1,550, 45%
USA, 1,158, 33%
Rest of World, 764,
22%
Global BEMS Market Value 2014
Million US
Dollars
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
Mill
ion
US
Do
llars
.
Total
EU
USA
Rest of World
36 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Data Centre precision
cooling market
36
Source: BSRIA
Relentless economies of scale of companies like
Amazon Web Services, Google, Microsoft
IT Sector 88%
Telcoms 9%
Other Non-IT
3%
Enterprise 33%
Co-location 25%
"Web giant" 42%
37 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Thank you!
37
Jeremy Towler BBA (GSBA Zurich). Betriebsoekonom dipl. oek. Senior Manager Energy and Smart Technologies
Old Bracknell Lane West, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 7AH
D : +44 (0)1344 465573 F : +44 (0)1344 465626 M : +44 (0)77 2527 8637 E : [email protected]
W : www.bsria.co.uk
More information at www.bsria.co.uk/market-intelligence
38 Excellence in Market Intelligence 38
BSRIA World Market Intelligence
Industry Briefing - Agenda
Topic Person Time
Welcome Julia Evans BSRIA CEO
08:00 am
Heating markets worldwide: Everything changes so - everything stays the same?
Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager – Heating &
Renewables 08:00 - 08:15 am
Intelligent Building Controls Market and the IoT Revolution – how much is hype and how much is really happening?
Raphael Chalogany Business Development
Manager NAM 08:15 - 08:30 am
Connected, Smart HVAC Technology is here – Fact or Fiction? Jeremy Towler
Senior Manager – Energy & Smart Technologies
08:30 - 08:45 am
Global HVACR trends – finding the sweet spots? Anette Holley
Senior Manager – Air-conditioning
08:45 - 09:00 am
2020 and Beyond – how menacing will the new supply chain controller be?
Andrew Giles General Manager
09:00 - 09:15 am
Q & A 09:15 - 09:30 am
Global Trends in
AC&R – Finding
the hot spots
AHR Expo 2016
Anette Meyer Holley
General Manager, AC&R & Consultancy
BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
January 2016
40 Excellence in Market Intelligence
AC Global Trends
Critical
Very Certain
Energy efficiency and renewables
Market globalization & industry consolidation
Refrigerants
VRF vs. Chiller and Unitary
Market Drivers
European economy slow to pick up
Market Restraints
Chinese slowdown
AC products going into the cloud
Legislation
Increasing focus on Chillers & Ventilation
US slowdown/ uncertainty
Smart buildings smart homes
40
41 Excellence in Market Intelligence 41
AC Global Trends
World Air Conditioning Market from 2013 to 2020 (F) in unit terms
Total Units in 2015: 128 million
World Air Conditioning Market from 2013 to 2020 (F) in value (US$ million)
Total Value in 2015: US$ 95 billion
42 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Quantitative 1. Demographics and value curve: criteria for specification 3 Brand and product perception 4.Comparison of products: VRF vs. alternatives 5. Market expectations for VRF 6. Pain point analysis: rating of shortcomings, challenges, weaknesses 7. Needs and requirements for VRF sales Qualitative 1. Why VRF? Advantages and disadvantages 2. VRF controls: Scalability, integration, advantages, disadvantages and implications 3. VRF suppliers 4. Market trends 5. Decision making process in commercial AC with reference to VRF in particular Residential 1. Why VRF in residential applications? Advantages and disadvantages 2. VRF suppliers 3 Market trends 4. Decision making process in residential AC with reference to VRF in particular Selected Case Studies
Market Potential for VRF in the USA:
A VOC study
42
Total Sample: 115 Audiences:
system specifiers Published: July 2015
43 Excellence in Market Intelligence 43
AC Chiller Market
World Market for Chillers from 2013 to 2018 in value (US$m)
USA
2nd in the world
44 Excellence in Market Intelligence 44
Global Market Shares 2014, % by value
Global AC Market Shares 2014
45 Excellence in Market Intelligence
2016 US AC Service and
Maintenance Market study
Part Sale Service Contract Sale (may include part and labour)
On Call Assistance (no service contract)
Subcontracting
45
46 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Residential /Light commercial
Commercial
Boxed fans (exhaust) for central house ventilation (typical 250 m³/h @ 150 Pa)
Rooftop fans (exhaust) for central house, small office, school ventilation. Includes fire resistant (400°C)
Small central HR ventilation unit (250-500 m³/h)
2016 Ventilation study- US, China, Europe
Central extract / supply. Includes mechanical extract (400°C) fire resistant.
Category: Roof fans
Category: Central extract
Category: Central Heat Recovery
Central HR ventilation unit
(500~5,500 m³/h)
Category: Central Heat Recovery
Category: Central balanced extract/supply
Air handling unit (~5,500- >100,000 m³/h)
Category: AHU
Category: Central supply
Positive input /multiple input ventilation
Need a better
segmentation
than airflow
range alone
46
47 Excellence in Market Intelligence
2016 World AC&R & HP compressors
47
2013-14 – World
refrigeration; 9 countries
Regional reports with Global overview
RESEARCH EXPECTED TO START APRIL 2016
48 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Anette Meyer Holley BA Economics & Business Administration General Manager, VACR and Consultancy Worldwide Market Intelligence
Old Bracknell Lane West, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 7AH
D : +44 (0)1344 465636 F : +44 (0)1344 465626 M : +44 (0)7725 278638 E : [email protected]
W : www.bsria.co.uk
Thank you!
48
More information at www.bsria.co.uk/market-intelligence
49 Excellence in Market Intelligence 49
BSRIA World Market Intelligence
Industry Briefing - Agenda
Topic Person Time
Welcome Julia Evans BSRIA CEO
08:00 am
Heating markets worldwide: Everything changes so - everything stays the same?
Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager – Heating &
Renewables 08:00 - 08:15 am
Intelligent Building Controls Market and the IoT Revolution – how much is hype and how much is really happening?
Raphael Chalogany Business Development
Manager NAM 08:15 - 08:30 am
Connected, Smart HVAC Technology is here – Fact or Fiction? Jeremy Towler
Senior Manager – Energy & Smart Technologies
08:30 - 08:45 am
Global HVACR trends – finding the sweet spots? Anette Holley
Senior Manager – Air-conditioning
08:45 - 09:00 am
2020 and Beyond – how menacing will the new supply chain controller be?
Andrew Giles General Manager
09:00 - 09:15 am
Q & A 09:15 - 09:30 am
How menacing will the new
supply chain controller be?
AHR Expo 2016
Andrew Giles
BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
January 2016
51 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Agenda
Which companies now head up the hvac supply chain & where?
What moves are the big hvac & controls companies making?
Smart companies? Can little guys compete in convergence?
Fundamental shift in residential/light commercial systems
Obliteration of the supply chain
The great divorce in the future of our industry & how to survive
51
52 Excellence in Market Intelligence 52
Belimo 0.1%
Carrier / ALC 2.6%
Danfoss 0.2%
Delta 0.2% GFR
0.4% Honeywell
6.3% Johnson Controls 9.8%
Kieback & Peter 1.8%
Neuberger 0.4%
Plueth 0.1%
Priva 0.1%
Regin 0.2%
Samson 0.2%
Sauter 1.9%
Siemens Building Technologies
8.9%
Schneider Electric 3.2%
Trane 2.8% Trend
0.1% Other manufacturers 13.5%
Third parties 47.3%
Big players tightening their grip on the
installed BACS market
44% in 2013
Carrier / ALC 3.9% Honeywell
7.0%
Johnson Controls
12.5%
Kieback & Peter 1.2%
Siemens Electronics
9.9%
Schneider 3.8%
Trane 3.7%
Other manufacturers
17.7%
Third parties 40.3%
53 Excellence in Market Intelligence 53
Access
Lighting
CCTV
AV - Signage
Power
Monitoring
Data, video
Energy
BACS/HVAC
Smoke detector
Small can be powerful
54 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Greener electricity
Efficiency legislation
Market growth
Need for control
Smart grid
advances
More expensive
electricity
Complexity
of solutions
Decentralised
energy
generation
Low gas prices
Powerful drivers for the HVAC market Challenging environment for customers and suppliers