Brown Sugar: Deriving Satisfaction through Data Analysis By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. On Behalf of Louisiana Lt. Governor’s Tourism Summit August 22 nd , 2018 Disclaimer: Any resemblance between the presentation’s title and the speaker is purely coincidental.
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Brown Sugar: Deriving Satisfaction through Data Analysis · IPSOS Global Confidence Index, June 2018 Source: IPSOS Based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment
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Brown Sugar:Deriving Satisfaction through
Data Analysis
By: Anirban BasuSage Policy Group, Inc.
On Behalf of
Louisiana Lt. Governor’s Tourism Summit
August 22nd, 2018
Disclaimer: Any resemblance between the presentation’s title and the speaker is purely coincidental.
Get off of My Cloud
IPSOS Global Confidence Index, June 2018
Source: IPSOS
Based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index
June 2018
Canada
Mexico
Argentina
55.3/ +0.6
61.9/ -0.9
42.5/ -3.3
47.0 /+1.3
Brazil
42.7/ -1.2
50.7/+0.2
Great Britain
France
43.3/-2.4
Spain
44.3/+1.4 Italy
40.9/+2.3
South Africa43.1/ -3.8
Germany
56.8/ +0.2
Poland
51.0/-0.7Sweden
61.0/ -2.9
Hungary
45.2/ +1.2
Israel
55.1/+1.5
Turkey
37.9/-4.2
Saudi Arabia
57.9/+5.3
Russia
42.2/+1.4
China
71.2/+0.9
India
64.1/ -0.9
South Korea
47.7/+2.0
Japan
45.2/+0.2
Australia
53.8/-0.4
48.8/-1.0
Belgium
High Low
CountryIndex/3-month change
Change ≥ +1.5
Change ≥ -1.5
Largest gains
Saudi Arabia
Italy
South Korea
Global Average: 50.4
(3-month change: -0.1)
Highest (over 60) in:
China, India, U.S.,
Sweden
Lowest (below 40) in:
Turkey
Down in 5 countries:
Turkey, South Africa,
Argentina, Sweden,
France
Up in 4 countries:
Saudi Arabia, Italy, South
Korea, Israel
50.4
The business confidence index (BCI) is based on enterprises’ assessment of production, orders and stocks, as well as its current position and expectations for the immediate future. Opinions compared to a “normal” state are collected and the difference between positive and negative answers provides a qualitative index on economic conditions.
OECD Business Confidence Index –Select Regions/CountriesJuly 2000 - July 2018
Source: OECD
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0Ju
l-0
0
Jan
-01
Jul-
01
Jan
-02
Jul-
02
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
Jan
-15
Jul-
15
Jan
-16
Jul-
16
Jan
-17
Jul-
17
Jan
-18
Jul-
18
OECD - Total Euro area (19 countries) United States
Note: Data for China for June and July are not available.
Travel Spending in the U.S. and AbroadJune 2013 – June 2018
Source: International Trade Administration, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries. *Spending reflects the purchases of goods and services by the U.S. persons abroad and foreign visitors in the U.S. for business and other reasons. Spending categories include food, lodging, recreation, local transportation, but exclude the amount spent on means of transportation to and from the U.S., as well as spending by those traveling for medical, educational or employment purposes.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%Ju
n-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Feb
-14
Ap
r-14
Jun
-14
Au
g-1
4
Oct
-14
Dec
-14
Feb
-15
Ap
r-15
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
Oct
-15
Dec
-15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-16
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
Dec
-16
Feb
-17
Ap
r-17
Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
Dec
-17
Feb
-18
Ap
r-18
Jun
-18
12-m
on
th %
ch
an
ge
U.S. Persons Traveling Abroad
Foreign Visitors to the U.S.
+5.5%
+1.9%
Global Monetary Policy Tightening/EasingAs of July 2018
The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker covers fifty-four large countries—mainly those that target inflation in some manner. Tightening policy is indicated in red, loosening in blue. The more a country has raised (lowered) rates, in percentage points, from the most recent trough (peak) in its policy rate, the darker the shade of red (blue). Generally, the policy rate target is the overnight interbank rate, with exceptions indicated.
Source: Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Global Monetary Policy Tracker
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2018 Projected
Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Update, July 2018
1.8%2.3%
1.6%3.5%
7.3%6.6%6.5%
1.7%4.3%
3.4%4.9%
2.9%3.0%
2.1%1.4%
1.0%2.8%
1.2%2.2%
1.8%2.2%2.4%
-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
BrazilMexico
Latin America & the CaribbeanMiddle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan
IndiaChina
Emerging & Developing AsiaRussia
Emerging & Developing EuropeSub-Saharan Africa
Emerging Market & Developing EconomiesUnited States
CanadaAustralia
JapanItaly
United KingdomFrance
GermanySpain
Euro AreaAdvanced Economies
Annual % Change
2018 Proj. Global Output Growth: +3.9%
2017 Growth (Estimate)
World: 3.7% Euro Area: 2.4%
United States: 2.3% Japan: 1.7%
Start Me Up
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
200
5Ja
n-0
8A
pr-
08
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9Ju
l-0
9O
ct-0
9Ja
n-1
0A
pr-
10Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11O
ct-1
1Ja
n-1
2A
pr-
12Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-13
Jul-
13O
ct-1
3Ja
n-1
4A
pr-
14Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-15
Jul-
15O
ct-1
5Ja
n-1
6A
pr-
16Ju
l-16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Jul-
17O
ct-1
7Ja
n-1
8A
pr-
18Ju
l-18
July 2018 = 127.4 where 1985 = 100
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index2005 – July 2018
Source: Conference Board
NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism: Good Time to Expand1986-2018
Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Jul-
86
Jul-
87
Jul-
88
Jul-
89
Jul-
90
Jul-
91
Jul-
92
Jul-
93
Jul-
94
Jul-
95
Jul-
96
Jul-
97
Jul-
98
Jul-
99
Jul-
00
Jul-
01
Jul-
02
Jul-
03
Jul-
04
Jul-
05
Jul-
06
Jul-
07
Jul-
08
Jul-
09
Jul-
10
Jul-
11
Jul-
12
Jul-
13
Jul-
14
Jul-
15
Jul-
16
Jul-
17
Jul-
18
July 2018:32%
% of respondents who think the next 3 months will be a good time to for small business to expand
Paint It Black – Corporate ProfitsU.S. Corporate Profits After Tax*
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis *With Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj); Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
1950
Q1
1952
Q1
1954
Q1
1956
Q1
1958
Q1
196
0Q
1
196
2Q1
196
4Q
1
196
6Q
1
196
8Q
1
1970
Q1
1972
Q1
1974
Q1
1976
Q1
1978
Q1
198
0Q
1
198
2Q1
198
4Q
1
198
6Q
1
198
8Q
1
199
0Q
1
199
2Q1
199
4Q
1
199
6Q
1
199
8Q
1
200
0Q
1
200
2Q1
200
4Q
1
200
6Q
1
200
8Q
1
2010
Q1
2012
Q1
2014
Q1
2016
Q1
2018
Q1
$ Billions
2018Q1: $1.92 Trillion
U.S. Job OpeningsJune 2001 through June 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0Ju
n-0
1
Dec
-01
Jun
-02
Dec
-02
Jun
-03
Dec
-03
Jun
-04
Dec
-04
Jun
-05
Dec
-05
Jun
-06
Dec
-06
Jun
-07
Dec
-07
Jun
-08
Dec
-08
Jun
-09
Dec
-09
Jun
-10
Dec
-10
Jun
-11
Dec
-11
Jun
-12
Dec
-12
Jun
-13
Dec
-13
Jun
-14
Dec
-14
Jun
-15
Dec
-15
Jun
-16
Dec
-16
Jun
-17
Dec
-17
Jun
-18
Job
Op
en
ing
s (M
illi
on
s)
June 2018:6.66M Openings
Net Change in U.S. JobsJuly 2002 through July 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600Ju
l-0
2N
ov-
02
Mar
-03
Jul-
03
No
v-0
3M
ar-0
4Ju
l-0
4N
ov-
04
Mar
-05
Jul-
05
No
v-0
5M
ar-0
6Ju
l-0
6N
ov-
06
Mar
-07
Jul-
07
No
v-0
7M
ar-0
8Ju
l-0
8N
ov-
08
Mar
-09
Jul-
09
No
v-0
9M
ar-1
0Ju
l-10
No
v-10
Mar
-11
Jul-
11N
ov-
11M
ar-1
2Ju
l-12
No
v-12
Mar
-13
Jul-
13N
ov-
13M
ar-1
4Ju
l-14
No
v-14
Mar
-15
Jul-
15N
ov-
15M
ar-1
6Ju
l-16
No
v-16
Mar
-17
Jul-
17N
ov-
17M
ar-1
8Ju
l-18
Th
ou
san
ds
July 2018:+157K
National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector, July 2017 v. July 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-21
8
53
89
106
254
308
327
331
427
518
-50 50 150 250 350 450 550
Information
Government
Mining and Logging
Other Services
Financial Activities
Leisure and Hospitality
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Thousands, SA
All told 2,400K jobs gained
U.S. Labor Force Participation: Men Ages 25-342000 – 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
200
0Q
2
200
0Q
4
200
1Q2
200
1Q4
200
2Q2
200
2Q4
200
3Q2
200
3Q4
200
4Q
2
200
4Q
4
200
5Q2
200
5Q4
200
6Q
2
200
6Q
4
200
7Q2
200
7Q4
200
8Q
2
200
8Q
4
200
9Q
2
200
9Q
4
2010
Q2
2010
Q4
2011
Q2
2011
Q4
2012
Q2
2012
Q4
2013
Q2
2013
Q4
2014
Q2
2014
Q4
2015
Q2
2015
Q4
2016
Q2
2016
Q4
2017
Q2
2017
Q4
2018
Q2
89.2%
Louisiana Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)July 2017 v. July 2018 Absolute Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-2,700
-800
-300
1,500
1,600
1,800
2,600
3,600
3,800
4,800
4,900
-5,000 -3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000
Government
Mining and Logging
Financial Activities
Other Services
Information
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
Professional and Business Services
Manufacturing
Education and Health Services
LA Total:
+20.8K; +1.1%
US Total (SA):
+2,400K; +1.6%
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) seriesLA added 27,752 jobs between July 2017 and July 2018.
-200
-200
0
0
300
400
800
900
1,500
2,400
2,500
-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Mining and Logging
Manufacturing
Other Services
Financial Activities
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Government
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Construction
Baton Rouge, LA MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)July 2017 v. July 2018 Absolute Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Baton Rouge:
+8.4K; +2.1%
LA Total (SA):
+20.8K; +1.1%
US Total (SA):
+2,400K; +1.6%
-1,200
-100
0
200
500
1,100
1,400
1,500
1,700
2,100
2,500
-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000
Professional and Business Services
Mining and Logging
Financial Activities
Government
Other Services
Information
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Construction
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
New Orleans-Metairie, LA MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)July 2017 v. July 2018 Absolute Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
New Orleans:
+9.7K; +1.7%
LA Total (SA):
+20.8K; +1.1%
US Total (SA):
+2,400K; +1.6%
Louisiana Select MSAs Leisure and Hospitality Employment (NSA)YOY Growth: July 2017 v. July 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
MSAJuly 2017 v. July 2018
Net %
Lake Charles +400 +2.6%
Shreveport-Bossier City +300 +1.3%
Monroe +200 +2.5%
Houma-Thibodaux +100 +1.3%
New Orleans MSA Leisure and Hospitality Employment (NSA)July 2018