7/20/2018 1 Brown Sugar: Deriving Satisfaction through Data Analysis By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. On Behalf of Michigan Land Title Association Summer Convention July 16 th , 2018 Disclaimer: Any resemblance between the presentation’s title and the speaker is purely coincidental. Get off of My Cloud IPSOS Global Confidence Index, June 2018 Source: IPSOS US Largest drops Turkey South Africa Argentina June 2018 Canada Mexico Argentina 55.3/ +0.6 61.9/ -0.9 42.5/ -3.3 47.0 /+1.3 Brazil 42.7/ -1.2 50.7/+0.2 Great Britain France 43.3/-2.4 Spain 44.3/+1.4 Italy 40.9/+2.3 South Africa 43.1/ -3.8 Germany 56.8/ +0.2 Poland 51.0/-0.7 Sweden 61.0/ -2.9 Hungary 45.2/ +1.2 Israel 55.1/+1.5 Turkey 37.9/-4.2 Saudi Arabia 57.9/ +5.3 Russia 42.2/ +1.4 China 71.2/+0.9 India 64.1/ -0.9 South Korea 47.7/+2.0 Japan 45.2/+0.2 Australia 53.8/-0.4 48.8/-1.0 Belgium High Low Country Index/3-month change Change ≥ +1. 5 Change ≥ -1.5 Largest gains Saudi Arabia Italy South Korea Global Average: 50.4 (3-month change: -0.1) Highest (over 60) in: China, India, U.S., Sweden Lowest (below 40) in: Turkey Down in 5 countries: Turkey, South Africa, Argentina, Sweden, France Up in 4 countries: Saudi Arabia, Italy, South Korea, Israel 50.4
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CON SUM ER CON FIDE NCE GLO BAL SNA PS HOT · IPSOS Global Confidence Index, June 2018 Source: IPSOS Based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).
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7/20/2018
1
Brown Sugar:Deriving Satisfaction through
Data Analysis
By: Anirban BasuSage Policy Group, Inc.
On Behalf of
Michigan Land Title AssociationSummer Convention
July 16th, 2018
Disclaimer: Any resemblance between the presentation’s title and the speaker is purely coincidental.
Get off of My Cloud
IPSOS Global Confidence Index, June 2018
Source: IPSOS
Based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index
June 2018
Canada
Mexico
Argentina
55.3/ +0.6
61.9/ -0.9
42.5/ -3.3
47.0 /+1.3
Brazil
42.7/ -1.2
50.7/+0.2
Great Britain
France
43.3/-2.4
Spain
44.3/+1.4 Italy
40.9/+2.3
South Africa43.1/ -3.8
Germany
56.8/ +0.2
Poland
51.0/-0.7Sweden
61.0/ -2.9
Hungary
45.2/ +1.2
Israel
55.1/+1.5
Turkey
37.9/-4.2
Saudi Arabia
57.9/+5.3
Russia
42.2/+1.4
China
71.2/+0.9
India
64.1/ -0.9
South Korea
47.7/+2.0
Japan
45.2/+0.2
Australia
53.8/-0.4
48.8/-1.0
Belgium
High Low
CountryIndex/3-month change
Change ≥ +1.5
Change ≥ -1.5
Largest gains
Saudi Arabia
Italy
South Korea
Global Average: 50.4
(3-month change: -0.1)
Highest (over 60) in:
China, India, U.S.,
Sweden
Lowest (below 40) in:
Turkey
Down in 5 countries:
Turkey, South Africa,
Argentina, Sweden,
France
Up in 4 countries:
Saudi Arabia, Italy, South
Korea, Israel
50.4
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2
The business confidence index (BCI) is based on enterprises’ assessment of production, orders and stocks, as well as its current position and expectations for the immediate future. Opinions compared to a “normal” state are collected and the difference between positive and negative answers provides a qualitative index on economic conditions.
OECD Business Confidence Index –Select Regions/CountriesMay 2000 - May 2018
Source: OECD
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0
104.0
May
-00
No
v-0
0
May
-01
No
v-0
1
May
-02
No
v-0
2
May
-03
No
v-0
3
May
-04
No
v-0
4
May
-05
No
v-0
5
May
-06
No
v-0
6
May
-07
No
v-0
7
May
-08
No
v-0
8
May
-09
No
v-0
9
May
-10
No
v-10
May
-11
No
v-11
May
-12
No
v-12
May
-13
No
v-13
May
-14
No
v-14
May
-15
No
v-15
May
-16
No
v-16
May
-17
No
v-17
May
-18
OECD - Total Euro area (19 countries) United States China
Global Monetary Policy Tightening/EasingAs of June 2018
The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker covers fifty-four large countries—mainly those that target inflation in some manner. Tightening policy is indicated in red, loosening in blue. The more a country has raised (lowered) rates, in percentage points, from the most recent trough (peak) in its policy rate, the darker the shade of red (blue). Generally, the policy rate target is the overnight interbank rate, with exceptions indicated.
Source: Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Global Monetary Policy Tracker
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2018 Projected
Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Database, April 2018
2.3%2.3%
2.0%3.4%
7.4%6.6%6.5%
1.7%4.3%
3.4%4.9%
2.9%3.0%
2.1%1.6%
1.2%2.8%
1.5%2.5%
2.1%2.4%2.5%
-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
BrazilMexico
Latin America & the CaribbeanMiddle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan
IndiaChina
Emerging & Developing AsiaRussia
Emerging & Developing EuropeSub-Saharan Africa
Emerging Market & Developing EconomiesUnited States
CanadaAustralia
JapanItaly
United KingdomFrance
GermanySpain
Euro AreaAdvanced Economies
Annual % Change
2018 Proj. Global Output Growth: +3.9%
2017 Growth (Estimate)
World: 3.8% Euro Area: 2.3%
United States: 2.3% Japan: 1.7%
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Start Me Up
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
200
5
Feb
-08
Jun
-08
Oct
-08
Feb
-09
Jun
-09
Oct
-09
Feb
-10
Jun
-10
Oct
-10
Feb
-11
Jun
-11
Oct
-11
Feb
-12
Jun
-12
Oct
-12
Feb
-13
Jun
-13
Oct
-13
Feb
-14
Jun
-14
Oct
-14
Feb
-15
Jun
-15
Oct
-15
Feb
-16
Jun
-16
Oct
-16
Feb
-17
Jun
-17
Oct
-17
Feb
-18
Jun
-18
June 2018 = 126.4 where 1985 = 100
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index2005 – June 2018
Source: Conference Board
NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism: Good Time to Expand1986-2018
Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Jun
-86
Jun
-87
Jun
-88
Jun
-89
Jun
-90
Jun
-91
Jun
-92
Jun
-93
Jun
-94
Jun
-95
Jun
-96
Jun
-97
Jun
-98
Jun
-99
Jun
-00
Jun
-01
Jun
-02
Jun
-03
Jun
-04
Jun
-05
Jun
-06
Jun
-07
Jun
-08
Jun
-09
Jun
-10
Jun
-11
Jun
-12
Jun
-13
Jun
-14
Jun
-15
Jun
-16
Jun
-17
Jun
-18
June 2018:29%
% of respondents who think the next 3 months will be a good time to for small business to expand
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4
Paint It Black – Corporate ProfitsU.S. Corporate Profits After Tax*
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis *With Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj); Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
1950
Q1
1952
Q1
1954
Q1
1956
Q1
1958
Q1
196
0Q
1
196
2Q1
196
4Q
1
196
6Q
1
196
8Q
1
1970
Q1
1972
Q1
1974
Q1
1976
Q1
1978
Q1
198
0Q
1
198
2Q1
198
4Q
1
198
6Q
1
198
8Q
1
199
0Q
1
199
2Q1
199
4Q
1
199
6Q
1
199
8Q
1
200
0Q
1
200
2Q1
200
4Q
1
200
6Q
1
200
8Q
1
2010
Q1
2012
Q1
2014
Q1
2016
Q1
2018
Q1
$ Billions
2018Q1: $1.92 Trillion
U.S. Job OpeningsMay 2001 through May 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
May
-01
No
v-0
1
May
-02
No
v-0
2
May
-03
No
v-0
3
May
-04
No
v-0
4
May
-05
No
v-0
5
May
-06
No
v-0
6
May
-07
No
v-0
7
May
-08
No
v-0
8
May
-09
No
v-0
9
May
-10
No
v-10
May
-11
No
v-11
May
-12
No
v-12
May
-13
No
v-13
May
-14
No
v-14
May
-15
No
v-15
May
-16
No
v-16
May
-17
No
v-17
May
-18
Job
Op
en
ing
s (M
illi
on
s)
May 2018:6.64M Openings
Net Change in U.S. JobsJune 2002 through June 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Jun
-02
Oct
-02
Feb
-03
Jun
-03
Oct
-03
Feb
-04
Jun
-04
Oct
-04
Feb
-05
Jun
-05
Oct
-05
Feb
-06
Jun
-06
Oct
-06
Feb
-07
Jun
-07
Oct
-07
Feb
-08
Jun
-08
Oct
-08
Feb
-09
Jun
-09
Oct
-09
Feb
-10
Jun
-10
Oct
-10
Feb
-11
Jun
-11
Oct
-11
Feb
-12
Jun
-12
Oct
-12
Feb
-13
Jun
-13
Oct
-13
Feb
-14
Jun
-14
Oct
-14
Feb
-15
Jun
-15
Oct
-15
Feb
-16
Jun
-16
Oct
-16
Feb
-17
Jun
-17
Oct
-17
Feb
-18
Jun
-18
Th
ou
san
ds
June 2018:+213K
7/20/2018
5
National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector, June 2017 v. June 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-28
17
57
99
127
261
282
285
308
445
521
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500
Information
Government
Mining and Logging
Other Services
Financial Activities
Leisure and Hospitality
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Thousands, SA
All told 2,374K jobs gained
U.S. Labor Force Participation: Men Ages 25-342000 – 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
Cross-border investment remained elevated in 2016:Although down relative to a record 2015, offshore investment levels still exceeded the pre-2015 high in 2007.
Commercial/Multifamily Offshore Investment Sales Volumes Reach New Heights in 2015/16
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million
Foreign Investment in U.S. Commercial Real EstateTop Destination Markets, 2017
Source: Real Capital Analytics; Colliers International